Average Draft Position (ADP) is a must-have piece of information when it comes to drafting. While every league is different and may have a particularly aggressive or conservative group of owners when it comes to certain players, it’s the best tool we have when analyzing players’ value. Now, instead of just talking about total ADP from all sites, we’re going to look at Yahoo’s respective ADP data.
Specifically, we’re going to talk about players who are overvalued — being selected earlier — on Yahoo compared to other sites. Let’s read on about six players to avoid despite their lofty rankings.
Don’t succumb to the anchoring effect — a cognitive bias where we over-rely on the first piece of information encountered (like the ADP ranking column in a draft room). ADP data current as of March 9.
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Daniel Murphy (1B/2B – WAS) – CBS ADP: 28.63 (NFBC: 38.73, Yahoo: 43.6)
Murphy, ranked 39th overall per our expert consensus rankings, is being drafted over 10 slots earlier in CBS drafts. Much to the chagrin of Mets fans everywhere, Murphy retooled his swing and dazzled with a .347/.390/.595 triple slash.
He racked up 88 runs, 25 homers, and 104 RBIs in only 142 games (582 plate appearances). The RBI total came thanks to his average jumping from .331 with no one on, to .367 with men on base and .355 with men in scoring position.
Sounds all good right? Sure, but how much can one invest in someone who will be 32 come Opening Day? Is age enough of a reason to discount him?
While his hitting tools are fantastic and his versatility appreciated, going ahead of someone like A.J. Pollock, who was a fringe first rounder only a year ago, is a bridge too far. CBS may turn out being “right” when 2017 is in the books, but the value relative to other sites is quite high.
Eduardo Nunez (3B/SS – SF) – CBS ADP: 100.54 (NFBC: 116.34, Yahoo: 192.6)
Nunez was spectacular for Minnesota last season, hitting 12 homers and going 27-for-33 on the basepaths with a .296 average in 396 PAs. He was regularly hitting leadoff after bouncing around the two-hole for a bit, but then was traded to San Francisco at the trade deadline and was often buried in the bottom half of the lineup. He only hit four homers in the power-zapping AT&T Park and went 13-for-17 on swipe attempts alongside a .269 average in 199 PAs.
Nunez is ranked 158th overall by our experts, which makes his CBS price tag an overpay of roughly five full rounds. That is exorbitant price gouging.
He’s going ahead of Evan Longoria, Jose Ramirez, Miguel Sano, Maikel Franco, and Jake Lamb – all of whom I would rather own over Nunez. While speed is precious, people might be expecting too much moving forward out of last season’s power spike.
Jay Bruce (OF – NYM) – CBS ADP: 150.14 (NFBC: 198.91, Yahoo: 189.7)
Bruce lit Cincinnati on fire with his 25 homers and 80 RBIs before the trade deadline, including swatting seven homers in the 14 games between then and the All-Star game. This led many of his owners to feel as though he was finally meeting his lofty potential, but it’s only natural that he was then traded at the deadline to the Mets. In his 187 PAs from Aug. 2 on, he only managed a .219 average with eight homers and 19 RBIs.
Sympathizers can look at the track record yielded by the majority of the season as well as his modest eight-game hitting streak to end the regular season, in which he hit four homers. That said, there’s no discounting that Great American Ballpark is a better power park – it ranked as fourth-best for homers per our Park Factors, while Citi Field checked in at 15th.
Jacob deGrom (SP – NYM) – CBS ADP: 51.54 (NFBC: 69.91, Yahoo: 69.4)
The Mets’ rotation is a delicate one but embodies such upside if health can hold. Jacob deGrom is no different, though his ulnar nerve in his elbow is less troubling (and directly addressed by surgery) compared to Matt Harvey’s woes, Steven Matz’s barky elbow and Zack Wheeler’s perpetual rehab journey. While deGrom’s pre-injury 2.30 ERA (3.00 FIP, 3.33 xFIP, 3.51 SIERA) was strong, his overall dip in swinging-strike rate (12.7% to 10.7%) and a rise in HR/9 from 0.75 to 0.91 point a few reddish-pink flags.
We’ll still endorse him as a strong pick, especially if you can nab him as your SP2 behind an established ace, but seeing him going right next to an electric arm like Stephen Strasburg – as well as before Chris Archer – is surprising. Opening the fifth round of a 12-team draft with him is too far.
Cole Hamels (SP – TEX) – CBS ADP: 70.49 (NFBC: 82.98, Yahoo: 87.8)
Hamels turned in his best win-loss record (15-5) since 2012, he reached 200 strikeouts and lowered his ERA from 3.65 in 2015 to 3.32, so what’s the beef? Those who owned him last season should be familiar with the career-worst 1.31 WHIP that came with it. This was largely due to his BB/9 shooting up to an uncanny 3.45, as he hadn’t posted a figure above 2.63 in that department since his rookie season (3.26).
As a result, Hamels’ fielding-independent metrics were not that of a spectacular pitcher. His 3.98 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, and 3.99 SIERA painted him as a guy who should’ve had an extra half of a run tacked onto that ERA. Holding onto the strikeouts does good to maintain some value, but there is a real cliff coming if he’ll need to dance around a ballooned walk rate for another year.
As a result, buying into him at around the same cost as arms that are trending upward, such as Carlos Martinez, is an overpay. If you’re faced with him as your only real option, you’re best left just waiting for the next wave because of guys like Jose Quintana and Danny Duffy – who are going 25-30 picks later – are just as good.
J.A. Happ (SP – TOR) – CBS ADP: 138.4 (NFBC: 191.96, Yahoo: 171.2)
You’re getting that we like the sabermetrics, yes? While they can’t account for everything, Happ turned in crazy value on a strong record (20-4) and a 3.18 ERA that outkicked his 4.28 SIERA by over a full run!
His disrespect for mathematics is one to be revered. His batted-ball profile didn’t change by much at all compared to 2015, yet his BABIP dropped from .312 to .268 anyway.
Happ is ranked 188th in our ECR as the 52nd SP off the board, and yet on CBS, he’s the 36th starting arm. That’s a huge leap, for the record. There are plenty of arms going after Happ on CBS that I (and many of my fellow experts) would prefer, with some notable names being Julio Urias, Jameson Taillon, Lance McCullers, John Lackey, and teammate Marcus Stroman.
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Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.
