Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-13.0) Over/Under: 43.5
Who would’ve thought the Texans would be getting 13 points from a Patriots team that lost their first home game to the Chiefs? It makes sense, though, because if you’ve seen the Texans offense, it’s a disaster. The fact that Bill Belichick removes the opponents No. 1 option is a problem because the Texans only have one option on their team, DeAndre Hopkins. It also seems like the Texans will be without their top cornerback Kevin Johnson for this game, who suffered a knee sprain in Week 2. Their other perimeter cornerback Johnathan Joseph is also a question mark for this game with a shoulder injury. Things could get ugly for the Texans, despite their insanely talented front-four.
QBs: If you think Deshaun Watson is going to be good, you’re likely watching different game-film than I am, because he’s someone who lacks anticipation, doesn’t go through his progressions, locks onto one target, and is quick to leave the pocket. On top of all that, he doesn’t have an elite arm. The Patriots defense hasn’t been their usual self so far this season, but this is a ‘get-right’ type game. They allowed just 15.7 points per game at home last year and the Texans have a 15.3 implied total. If Watson can do anything, it’s scramble, so he stays on the QB2 radar despite the tough matchup on paper. It’s a good thing you didn’t take too much away from that Week 1 performance from Brady, eh? He looked much better against a talent-deprived Saints secondary in Week 2, whose defensive line failed to generate much pressure. The Texans will bring pressure, but Brady has been excellent when under pressure this year, completing 15 of 21 passes for 312 yards and two touchdowns. He also had the fifth-highest QB Rating when under pressure in 2016. He’s an elite QB1 against the Texans.
RBs: It was only a matter of time until Lamar Miller started to lose work. You can only be so mediocre for so long and keep the 21 touches per game that he’s averaged since coming to the Texans. He’s still going to get a lot of work in this game, because he’s a much better pass catcher than teammate D’Onta Foreman. Through two weeks, the Patriots have allowed 250 yards on 35 carries (7.14 YPC) with two touchdowns and another 177 yards and two touchdowns through the air. This could be a week where Miller actually surprises because there should be some garbage time yards accumulated. Consider him an RB2 despite the loss of work to Foreman last week. Foreman himself should remain on benches until better matchups arise for the Texans, as he profiles better as the running back getting the early-down work. It’s good to see him get increased work, but leave him on fantasy benches this week, as Alfred Blue appears set to return and further cloudy the situation. Mike Gillislee is clearly in the old Blount role, as he’s now totaled 33 carries for 114 yards and four touchdowns through two games. He’s going to be a factor every week, though it’ll hurt when he doesn’t score because he’s not being utilized in the passing game. Did you know that there were just three games all of last year where LeGarrette Blount didn’t score at least one touchdown? Gillislee needs to be in lineups every week and you’ll deal with it when he doesn’t score. James White is also an every-week play, as he’s totaled 73 snaps through two weeks while Rex Burkhead has played 18 and Dion Lewis has played 20. He’s getting touches, too, as he now has 23 of them for 164 yards, though he’s yet to score. There’ll be a game very soon where he scores two touchdowns and it could be this one, as the Texans have struggled against pass-catching running backs. White is a great RB3 in standard and a solid RB2 in PPR formats. Rex Burkhead would be the third option, but he needs to be on the field for more snaps before inserting him into lineups. He’s that guy where if you’re in a real pinch, you throw him in because he can always run or catch a touchdown in this high-scoring offense.
WRs: The Patriots receiving options must be cursed, as they continue to fall like dominos. It’s a week to get fired up about Brandin Cooks, who has still yet to have his true breakout performance with the team. Considering the Texans may be without their top two cornerbacks, this is a good week to bet that happens. He’s a WR1 and can arguably be used in cash lineups if both Johnson and Joseph are announced as out. Chris Hogan was nicked up in the Week 2 contest against the Saints, but reportedly should be good to go. He played much better in Week 2, hauling in five passes for 78 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. Again, if the Texans are without their top two cornerbacks, the Patriots get to pick their poison, though I see this as a Cooks game. Hogan should still be on the WR3 radar, provided he practices all week and appears healthy. Danny Amendola is not only dealing with the concussion he suffered in Week 1, but also a knee injury, making him an avoid until we see him play a full game. Phillip Dorsett also injured his knee in Week 2, making him a risky wide receiver to put into lineups and he wasn’t a great option even when healthy. As mentioned in the opening paragraph for this game, the Patriots always attempt to remove the opposing team’s No. 1 option in the passing game and have succeeded thus far, holding Travis Kelce to five catches for 40 yards and Michael Thomas to five catches for 89 scoreless yards. DeAndre Hopkins is going to be a low-end WR2 in this game because of all the volume he gets, but I wouldn’t get excited when placing him in my lineup. He’s an avoid in DFS despite the high volume projection. There is also no reason to believe that Braxton Miller should do anything in this game, as he’s seen just four targets through two games and has just 10 yards receiving. Avoid the Texans passing game if at all possible. There may be a touchdown in garbage time, but you never want to rely on that.
TEs: It appears that the Patriots dodged a bullet with Rob Gronkowski‘s injury, as they’re calling it non-factor going forward. Pay attention to the practice reports as the week goes on, but as of now, pencil Gronkowski into season-long lineups. This is known to be an extremely difficult matchup for tight ends, but Gronkowski doesn’t really fit the prototypical tight end role. Asking any linebacker to cover him won’t end well. Still, this is a week where I’d under-own him in DFS lineups, as there are other matchups to exploit instead that may be safer. The Texans don’t have a tight end worth considering in this matchup, as most of them are still in the concussion protocol, including C.J. Fiedorowicz, who is on I.R. because of it.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Texans 13
Atlanta Falcons (-3.0) at Detroit Lions Over/Under: 49.5
It’s surprising to see a 2-0 team considered an underdog while at home, especially coming off an impressive Monday night performance against the Giants. The Falcons looked every bit as impressive as they did last year against the Packers, but didn’t look great against the Bears in Week 1. The Lions are looked at as a fantasy matchup to target, but they’ll only allowed five of their last 18 opponents top 23 points on the scoreboard. A large part of that is because they’ve limited their opponents to just 60.9 plays dating back to the start of 2016, which is the second fewest in the NFL. It’ll be interesting to see if linebacker Jarrad Davis can get cleared in time for this game, because the Lions would be forced to use Jalen Reeves-Maybin, their fourth-round selection from this year’s draft. He struggled a bit in pass coverage once Davis left the game last week. It’s something to pay attention to because of the firepower that the Falcons bring. This is also a dome game, so it’s not much of a change in scenery for them. This game’s over/under should go up as the week goes on.
QBs: It hasn’t been the start that most thought they would get when they took Matt Ryan as the fourth or fifth quarterback off the board, but due to the poor quarterback play around the league, Ryan’s 573 yards and two touchdowns rank as the No. 10 quarterback in fantasy. The Lions have now held nine of the last 11 quarterbacks they’ve played to 16.0 or less fantasy points, though the competition hasn’t been stellar for a majority of it. Eli Manning was not given much time to find his targets on Monday night, but Ryan doesn’t have that issue. He’s a QB1 in this matchup, as the Lions have actually done a really good job preventing rushing touchdowns. Matthew Stafford is playing great football to start the season and he’s done so against two very formidable opponents. The Falcons allowed a massive 31 passing touchdowns last year and have allowed three of them through two games, and it should have been four if the Bears didn’t drop two end zone targets in Week 1. They should be able to get the run game off the ground in this matchup, but Stafford is still going to be a low-end QB1 in what should be a high-scoring affair.
RBs: It was good to see Devonta Freeman get back on track against the Packers after the Falcons seemed to be giving Tevin Coleman a larger role in Week 1. After playing just 12 more snaps than him against the Bears, the gap increased to 17 snaps against the Packers. The Lions have only allowed six rushing touchdowns since the start of the 2016 season, making it unlikely that Freeman has an encore to his Week 2 showing. This game is on the road, but Freeman has been much better on turf throughout his career than outdoors. Make no mistake about it, he’s an RB1, but his ceiling is lower than it was last week. Coleman is just a touchdown-dependent flex option every week with his 10 touches per game and this game is no different. The Lions did allow the 12th-most receiving yards to running backs last year, but allowed just three touchdowns through the air. Ameer Abdullah set a career-high last week with 86 rushing yards and he might do it again in Week 3 against the Falcons. With Stafford playing the way he is, lanes will start to open up for Abdullah, who now has 32 carries through two games. Of the eight running backs who saw at least 14 carries against the Falcons last year, seven of them scored at least 17 PPR points. Abdullah is a great RB2 to play in this matchup and one to target in DFS this week. Theo Riddick is interesting in PPR leagues because of the shootout potential, but know that he’s risky in standard leagues because he’s scored just one touchdown every 31.8 touches over the last three years. That’s a problem because he’s only touched the ball 9.5 times per game this year with Abdullah back. Consider him a solid RB3 in PPR formats and just an RB4 in standard leagues. Dwayne Washington isn’t worth rostering in leagues right now.
WRs: It’s been somewhat of a weak start to the season for Julio Jones, who has seen just 14 targets (ranks tied for 19th) through two games. It’d be nice to see a game where Ryan targets him relentlessly, because Jones is the type of player we’ve seen go for 300 yards before. His matchup with Darius Slay this week is a solid one, as Slay is a decent cornerback, but not a shutdown one. When targeted in coverage last year, he allowed a 97.4 quarterback rating. While playing against a less-than-100-percent Odell Beckham last week, he allowed all three of his targets to be caught for 30 yards. Consider Jones a WR1 in this game who could blow up at any minute. Mohamed Sanu has been a favorite in the early season, totaling 15 targets and producing 11 catches for 132 yards with them. He’ll see Quandre Diggs in coverage, who was brutal last year, but he’s played much better through two games in 2017. Sanu is a WR4 in fantasy leagues right now. Taylor Gabriel hasn’t really shown up on the stat sheet like he was last year, as he needs to hit on the bigger plays and there just haven’t enough deep shots the Falcons have needed to take. Ryan has only thrown six passes that have traveled over 20 yards in the air, which ranks 16th among quarterbacks. Gabriel is a boom-or-bust WR5. It’s good to see Marvin Jones score in the first two games, but this is something we’ve seen before. Remember that he was the No. 3 wide receiver in fantasy leagues after the first four weeks of last season. His matchup this week isn’t great against Desmond Trufant, though he’ll also see Robert Alford, where Jones could do his damage. Stafford has shown the willingness to chuck the ball up to him in one-on-one situations. He’s looking like a WR3/4 in season-long leagues and an interesting tournament play in DFS. Golden Tate surprisingly has the toughest matchup on the field against Brian Poole, who has been solid in coverage since taking over the slot role last year. He keeps plays in front of him and allows catches, but has allowed just three touchdowns on 109 targets in coverage. Tate should be looked at as a WR3 in standard leagues, but can be played as a low-end WR2 in PPR formats. Kenny Golladay is the fifth option in the passing game, so he’s going to be wildly inconsistent. It’s best to play him when Marvin Jones is being shadowed by a top tier cornerback, which doesn’t seem to be the case against the Falcons. In fact, Golladay will likely see the most Trufant, who is their best cornerback. He’s just a touchdown-dependent WR4/5 in this game.
TEs: You were warned about trusting Austin Hooper as a TE1 in this space last week, and our worst fears were realized – he’s seen just two targets in each game. He sits as the No. 6 tight end because of his 88-yard touchdown against the Bears, but he has just three catches for 47 yards outside of that play. Now as a tight end, touchdowns are the most important thing, so when you see that the Lions have allowed 11 touchdowns to them in their last 18 games, it should pique your interest. Hooper is a solid high-end TE2 this week because of that and should have a good shot to score in this matchup, especially if Jarrad Davis is forced to miss this game. Eric Ebron was a favorite of mine last week and this week presents another opportunity to stick him into lineups, as the Falcons under Dan Quinn have allowed the fifth-most points to tight ends in 2015 and the sixth-most points to them in 2016. Of the last 18 tight ends who’ve played the Falcons, 11 of them have hauled in five or more passes. Ebron is a TE1 who is among the safer players at the position.
Prediction: Falcons 27, Lions 26
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.0) Over/Under: 43.5
When the season started, nobody expected the Giants to be a big underdog, but with how poorly they’ve executed on offense over the last two weeks, it’s difficult to disagree. Meanwhile, the Eagles look like the team to beat in the NFC East. They’re going to be without Ronald Darby this week (and a few more), which leaves opportunity for the Giants wide receivers, but will Eli Manning be able to overcome the pass-rush of the Eagles front-seven? He lost his right tackle Bobby Hart at the start of Week 2 after just two snaps, so it’s unlikely he’ll be available for this game. The combination of Justin Pugh and Ereck Flowers sounds like a punishment, rather than two guys who are supposed to be protecting the edges. The Giants are at the mercy of Manning, which is a tough pill to swallow.
QBs: Let’s be real here for a minute, the Giants are not going to be able to run the ball on the Eagles, which leaves the door open for one solution. As bad as Eli Manning has been, his stat sheet doesn’t look as brutal, comparatively speaking. He’s averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and is completing a career-high 72.9 percent of passes. I’d saying he’s not taking enough chances and it’s hurting his performance. With Odell Beckham back to what should be close to 100 percent next week, Manning needs to attack this secondary. The Eagles have the fourth-highest sack percentage in football, which is concerning, but I still say that Manning belongs in the QB2 conversation this week. In two games against them last year, Manning threw for 613 yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions. He’s not a good quarterback right now, but he doesn’t need to be in order to post solid numbers against the Eagles. It’s a risk without a doubt, so maybe take your chances in DFS rather than season-long. Buckle up, kids. Carson Wentz sits near the top of fantasy leaderboards with 640 yards and four touchdowns through two weeks, but he’ll face his toughest competition yet when they host the Giants defense that’s now held 17 of the last 18 quarterbacks to 17.9 or less fantasy points, including 14 of them with 15.9 or less points. Wentz is playing well, but this is not a week to trust him in season-long leagues or DFS. He’s just a low-end QB2 in this matchup.
RBs: It’s one of the predictions that I’ve been most wrong on this season, but we have to know when to turn the page and that’s what I’m doing with Paul Perkins. He’s simply not able to create yardage on his own and the offensive line doesn’t create any, so he’s off fantasy radars until he shows us something. It’s very unlikely that happens against an Eagles front-seven that held him to 100 yards on 26 carries last year. We’d take that at this point, but Perkins won’t see close to that volume. He’s just a desperation RB4 right now. Shane Vereen doesn’t look much better, though he has appeal because of the time that Manning doesn’t have. He only has six carries, but his 12 receptions for 78 yards is where the value is, especially in PPR leagues. He’s a boring play, but you can do worse in your flex in PPR, though he’s just an RB4 in standard formats. LeGarrette Blount didn’t record a single carry last week, so we don’t really need to go down that path, as he just looks bad outside of a Patriots uniform. It’s not as if the Giants are a good matchup anyway. Blount belongs on waiver wires. Darren Sproles is the most predictable player in this backfield, but the Giants did a good job containing receiving backs last year and didn’t allow a single touchdown through the air to them. Sproles combined for 20 carries for 97 yards with a touchdown and five catches for 37 yards in the two games against them last year. He’s worth a look as an RB3 in PPR formats. Wendell Smallwood is the one picking up Blount’s lost carries, but he shouldn’t be considered in this matchup, either. The Giants allowed just 3.65 yards per carry last year and appear on a similar path in 2017.
WRs: I don’t care if Odell Beckham burned you last week, get him into lineups this week and enjoy your points. He’ll match-up with a combination of Jalen Mills and Patrick Robinson this week, both of whom are unable to contain someone like Beckham. Mills is among the worst cornerbacks in football and has allowed over 1,000 yards in his coverage since the start of 2016. There’s only one other cornerback who has allowed that. Beckham is an elite WR1 who I’d bet to produce at a high level in this game. Brandon Marshall is another story, as he looks even worse than he did last year. He’s seen nine targets through two games and has just two catches for 27 yards. He’s just a WR4 in what is a great matchup on paper, and he only gets the benefit of the doubt because of what he’s done. If you removed his name, he’d be on waiver wires. Sterling Shepard has outproduced Marshall in each game and is actually out-snapping him as well. He will see rookie Rasul Douglas in coverage the majority of the time, and although he’s looked solid thus far, he’s still a rookie. Shepard is in the same conversation as Marshall this week as a WR4, but the reason I hesitate on either of them is due to the game I expect Beckham to have. If for whatever reason Beckham isn’t 100 percent, Shepard can produce WR3 numbers. Alshon Jeffery bounced back against the Chiefs as we thought he would, but his matchup this week is one to avoid, especially if Janoris Jenkins returns to the field. The Giants allowed just 1.48 PPR points per target to wide receivers last year, the fifth-best mark in the league and allowed just three wide receivers to eclipse 100 yards all season. Two of them were slot receivers, which isn’t where Jeffery lines up. Consider him just a touchdown-hopeful WR3 in this game if Jenkins plays, but a low-end WR2 if Jenkins misses. Considering the Giants have allowed just two teams to have multiple double-digit PPR receivers in their last 11 games, it’s fair to say that Torrey Smith and Nelson Agholor should be off your fantasy radars.
TEs: Evan Engram has become a fantasy factor faster than most thought, racking up 12 targets that have amounted to eight catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. It’s promising to see, but he belongs on fantasy benches in Week 3, as the Eagles just allowed their first tight end to score more than 13 PPR points under Doug Pederson and that was Travis Kelce. The prior week they held Jordan Reed to just five catches for 36 yards, which is noteworthy. There will be better days for Engram, just not this week. If the Eagles wide receivers are going to be caught up in tough matchups all day, it’s only natural to wonder where their targets go. Enter Zach Ertz, who has yet to score, but he leads all tight ends with 190 yards. The Giants also happen to be one of the best matchups in the league for opposing tight ends, as they allowed the fourth-most yards to them last year. Ertz is similar to Eric Ebron in the fact that he doesn’t score touchdowns, but even Ebron was able to hit pay dirt last week. Ertz is squarely in the TE1 conversation and should be played in all formats.
Prediction: Giants 23, Eagles 20
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans (-2.5) Over/Under: 43.0
It’s been a rocky start for both of these teams through two weeks, as neither of them can be satisfied with their start. Both come into this game 1-1 and looking to improve on their performances. The Seahawks are relatively healthy, though you wouldn’t think so if you watched their offensive line “block.” The Titans are healthy on the defensive side of the ball, but both DeMarco Murray and Corey Davis are dealing with hamstring injuries. This game is likely to be a defensive battle between the two, but can the Titans secondary contain the Seahawks pass catchers? That will be the key to this game.
QBs: As mentioned last week, Russell Wilson has traditionally started the season slow. It’s a large enough sample size, too, as this is his sixth NFL season. At some point, the Seahawks need to invest a lot of draft capital into their offensive line that cannot block to save their lives, or Wilson’s. The Titans have just a 5.7 percent sack ratio, but they’ll work their way through the Seahawks offensive line for a better one this week. The Titans secondary is by far the weakest point of their team and because of that, Wilson needs to remain in fantasy lineups. Of the last 13 quarterbacks to play against the Titans, only Alex Smith and Blake Bortles totaled less than 18.7 DraftKings points. Wilson makes for an excellent tournament option this week and can even be considered for cash games. Marcus Mariota has a bit tougher matchup against the Seahawks, who have allowed just 17 passing touchdowns in their last 18 games. If he wants to boost his numbers, the Seahawks did allow three rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks last year. It helps that this game is in Tennessee, but Mariota is more of a QB2 than a QB1 this week.
RBs: Chris Carson was the big waiver wire pickup of the week, but it’ll be hard for him to live up to expectations against the Titans who have held the combination of Marshawn Lynch and Leonard Fournette to just 116 yards on 32 carries. Keep in mind that Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise are still going to be involved. With that being said, Carson has looked really good and forced his way into more playing time, so it’ll be tough to bench him while he’s touching the ball 20 times in a game. Consider him a flex-play in this tough matchup. Rawls was coming back from his high-ankle sprain which could have been a limiting factor, but Carson has looked better than any other running back in the non-Marshawn Lynch era. Rawls is not an option this week and won’t be until Carson falters. Prosise should have value in PPR formats, but he’s seen just three targets through two games, making him impossible to trust. It’s best to wait this one out and make sure his targets continue to rise. DeMarco Murray seems like he’ll be highly questionable for this game, not because he necessarily needs to be, but because the Titans can afford to put him on ice because they have a replacement who is likely better at this stage in his career. Derrick Henry is a guy who continually looks like the tape is sped-up while watching, because a man of his size isn’t supposed to be able to move like he does. The Seahawks are coming off a game in which they allowed Carlos Hyde to rumble for 124 yards on 15 carries, so Henry deserves consideration as a strong RB2 if Murray is out. The Seahawks aren’t indestructible against the run and allowed four running backs to have multiple rushing touchdowns against them last year. If Murray plays, this backfield is likely to be a mess, but I’d play Henry if forced to pick one, though they’d both be just low-end RB2/flex-type options. Henry’s just safer at this point.
WRs: There seem to be a lot of people willing to move on from Doug Baldwin judging by my mentions on Twitter over the last few days, but you shouldn’t be one of them. The Titans secondary is abysmal and they’ll ask Logan Ryan to cover him in Week 3. He came over from the Patriots and while solid there, he wasn’t ever asked to cover the opposing No. 1 wide receiver. If you recall, Baldwin and Ryan matched up last year in New England, where Ryan allowed a season-high 101 yards in his coverage with a touchdown to Baldwin. Again, this is a different team, but Ryan isn’t on Baldwin’s level. Considering Wilson is struggling, you can’t trust him as anything more than a high-end WR2, but he should be in lineups. Paul Richardson had his finger protruding through the skin last Sunday, came out and had it taped up, only to return and catch the game-winning touchdown. He’s now seen 12 targets through two games, but you have to wonder if the finger will limit him. It’s a great matchup, so he’s definitely worth WR4 consideration, but Tyler Lockett is also getting healthier, which takes away some of his target potential. One of these two is likely to score in this game, but picking which one is a chore as they’ll both see a mix of Brice McCain and Adoree Jackson. Consider them both WR4’s this week with upside. It’s been a tough start to the season for Eric Decker, who is averaging just 3.2 yards per target despite a few solid matchups. He has what should be the best matchup on the field again this week against Shaquill Griffin, who was the Seahawks third-round pick in this year’s draft. He’s being asked to play sooner than they’d like because of an injury to DeShawn Shead. It’s hard to play Decker with any confidence, but he’s a solid WR4 this week. Corey Davis re-aggravated his hamstring and appears likely to miss this game, which means Rishard Matthews will see a lot of Richard Sherman. It would be interesting to see if Taywan Taylor would play outside or if they’d kick Decker outside, but until it happens, we’re just speculating. Matthews is just a WR5 against Sherman, while Taylor would have streaming appeal if they used him correctly. You don’t need to in season-long leagues, but he might now be the worst tournament play in DFS.
TEs: After laying down on the field in pain for a short while, Jimmy Graham was able to return to the game after a trip to the locker room. After the game, it seemed like Graham would have a 50/50 shot to play this week. If he does play, it’s a mediocre matchup against a Titans team that allowed just five touchdowns to the tight end position last year. They have played against Jared Cook and Marcedes Lewis over the first two weeks, so there’s no telling whether or not they’ve improved in that area of the field. Graham hasn’t really performed even when healthy over his last 10 games, averaging 3.1 receptions for 38.7 yards and 0.3 touchdowns. It may be best to ensure that Graham is right before inserting him into lineups. Delanie Walker certainly isn’t dead yet, like some pronounced him when Corey Davis was drafted and Eric Decker was signed. He’s the No. 5 tight end through two weeks and that was with Davis in the lineup. The Seahawks are a tough draw, however, as they’ve allowed just one tight end to accumulate more than 61 yards in their last 18 games. They allowed just three tight ends to score in 2016 and they were all guys who you wouldn’t expect: Zach Ertz, Levine Toilolo, and Garrett Celek. Walker is just a low-end TE1 in this matchup and one that I’d try to avoid in DFS.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Titans 23
