Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 45.0
Line: PHI by 6.5
Despite what was considered to be a Super Bowl contender, the Cardinals are not in a good place right now. Outside of their ability to stop the run and defending No. 1 wide receivers, they have struggled on defense. Their offense has scored just 16 points against the Colts, 17 points against the Cowboys, and 18 points against the 49ers, which needed to go to overtime in order to happen. It’s exactly why they’re 6.5-point underdogs this week. The Eagles aren’t exactly a team that is picture perfect either, but they’ve done the little things right in order to win close games the last two weeks. Cardinals offensive guard Mike Iupati was placed on I.R. despite being expected to return last week, but his loss is a massive one for the immobile Carson Palmer. They are still without starting left tackle D.J. Humphries and lost linebacker Markus Golden last week to a torn ACL. The Eagles should generate a lot of pressure this week.
QBs: The Eagles haven’t generated pressure like a lot of us expected, but that should right itself at home against a Cardinals offensive line that has allowed 17 sacks through four weeks, which leads the NFL. Palmer himself has seen his numbers dip across the board this year – completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown to interception ratio, everything. Getting John Brown back to full health would be nice, because the Eagles secondary is their weak point, especially without Ronald Darby, who is still out. Since losing him, they have allowed an average of 321 passing yards and 2.0 touchdowns to Alex Smith, Eli Manning, and Philip Rivers. Palmer is one the QB1 radar because of this, along with the lack of run game for the Cardinals, though his upside seems limited in a game where their implied team total is just 19.3 points. Carson Wentz has played solid ball through four weeks, similar to how he did at the start of last year. He’s done that while teams have taken away Alshon Jeffery a majority of the time, and the Cardinals will do that again in Week 5. It’s hard to see where the Eagles will exploit this defense, but they have one of the higher implied team totals this week at 25.8 points. The Cardinals don’t allow much of anything on the ground, so Wentz will be the one to move the ball down the field. Considering the Cardinals slow down both of his top two weapons extremely well, it’s hard to trust Wentz as anything more than a QB2 this week.
RBs: I mentioned in last week’s Primer that Andre Ellington needs to see more touches and that efficiency has never been his issue, but rather durability. He was one of the top playmakers on their team last week, totaling 14 touches for 104 yards. The Cardinals need to continue to get him touches and it needs to come at the expense of Chris Johnson, who has been awful. The Eagles allowed Chris Thompson, who is similarly used to Ellington, 15.6 PPR points in Week 1 on just seven touches, leaving some hope for Ellington. It’s hard to trust someone who has just 10 carries over the last two games, but Ellington is an upside RB4 that can fill in for you in a pinch. You shouldn’t own or use Chris Johnson in anything, he belongs on waiver wires. He’s scored 12.8 fantasy points on 40 touches. Since Darren Sproles went down, Wendell Smallwood has played 78 snaps, while LeGarrette Blount has played 48 snaps, and Corey Clement has played 26 snaps. Blount has led them in touches over that span, with 29 touches to Smallwood’s 27 touches. This is not a week to touch Blount, despite him playing well over the last two weeks, as the Cardinals defensive line has held strong despite losing Calais Campbell this offseason. They have allowed just 277 rushing yards through four games, which included matchups with Ezekiel Elliott and Carlos Hyde. The hope with Blount is that he scores a touchdown with such a high implied team total, so he’s on the radar as an RB3, but don’t play him in DFS tournaments or anything. This may be a week to trust Smallwood a bit more, as he’s seen seven of the eight targets to running backs over the last two weeks. The Cardinals have done well against pass-catching backs through four weeks, allowing just 117 yards to them, but there have been two running backs (Carlos Hyde, Theo Riddick) who have been able to haul in five or more receptions. Consider Smallwood an RB3 in PPR formats and a RB4 in standard leagues.
WRs: The overall numbers look good for Fitzgerald – 26 receptions for 276 yards and two touchdowns – but how he’s gotten them has been disappointing. He’s had four outstanding matchups to start the year and a majority of his production came in one game against the Cowboys. Even last week, he was held to just three catches for 13 yards against the 49ers in regulation before saving his fantasy day with a 19-yard touchdown in overtime. Once again, he has a great matchup on his hands, as he’ll match-up with Patrick Robinson in the slot, who is coming off a game two games in which slot receivers destroyed them (Sterling Shepard 7/133/1, Keenan Allen 5/138/0). He’s had phenomenal matchups in all of his games thus far, yet has failed to live up to expectations. Consider him a low-end WR2 even in a great matchup with John Brown getting back to full health and Ellington starting to eat up some of the shorter targets. Jaron Brown has actually been the best Cardinals wide receiver to this point and now has 29 targets over the last three weeks. It still feels like a trap, similar to how we felt with J.J. Nelson a few weeks ago, but the matchup is solid. Both he and John Brown will see a mixture of Jalen Mills and Rasul Douglas in coverage, which has been a gift for perimeter wide receivers, as Odell Beckham and Tyrell Williams have feasted the last two weeks. Consider both of them risk/reward WR4’s this week in a game where the Cardinals will struggle to run the ball. J.J. Nelson played just 28 percent of the snaps last week, so he’s off the fantasy radar for now. Alshon Jeffery has had an abysmal start to his schedule this year and Week 5 is no different. The Cardinals will stick Patrick Peterson on him in coverage and that’ll be that. Jeffery will need to be moved around an awful lot to avoid his coverage, but still, don’t expect anything more than WR3 numbers. Dez Bryant scored against them, but still ended with just two catches for 12 yards. Torrey Smith may be the hidden treasure here, as the Cardinals have allowed guys like Kenny Golladay 4/69/2 and Brice Butler 2/90/1. Nelson Agholor will draw Tyrann Mathieu, while Smith with have Justin Bethel. Smith likely doesn’t need to be used in season-long leagues, but he could be an interesting tournament option in DFS.
TEs: You aren’t going to start Jermaine Gresham in a game against the Eagles, who were the No. 2 defense at defending tight ends last year, behind only the Cardinals. When updating my season-long rankings, Zach Ertz moved up to No. 3 and it was tempting to even move him ahead of Travis Kelce, considering the ups and downs of the Chiefs playmaker. Through four weeks, Ertz has seen a league-high 36 targets and sits as the No. 3 scoring tight end despite having scored one touchdown. With all that being said, the Cardinals take away tight ends in coverage. They have now held 21 of the last 22 tight ends they have played to 53 yards or less. Dating back to the start of last season, they’ve allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends, so it would make sense to fade Ertz in all of your DFS lineups this week, though he needs to remain put in season-long leagues with all the targets he’s seeing.
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders
Total: 40.0
Line: OAK by 2.5
This is going to be one sad game to watch. E.J. Manuel versus Joe Flacco. In case you somehow missed it, Derek Carr has a small fracture in his back that will force him to miss anywhere from 2-6 weeks. It evens things out because the Ravens have been hit by the injury bug over and over again this season. First it was Kenneth Dixon, then Danny Woodhead, guard Alex Lewis, guard Marshal Yanda, defensive lineman Brent Urban, and have been without defensive lineman Brandon Williams the last two weeks. If Williams is out again, this could be a game where we see the Raiders try and approach 40 carries as a team.
QBs: It’s been a brutal start to the season for Joe Flacco and it’s unlikely to get better any time soon. The Ravens offensive line is in shambles and their run game cannot get anything going. The Raiders have one of the best pass rushes in football, so it’s got to be in the gameplan to get the ball out of his hands as quick as possible. Most teams have been able to carve up the Raiders defense through the air, as Josh McCown, Kirk Cousins, and Trevor Siemian have combined to throw six touchdowns the last three weeks. They also may be without starting cornerback David Amerson, who suffered a concussion in Week 4. Flacco is nothing more than a QB2, and a risky one at that, simply because he doesn’t have enough protection to get the ball downfield to guys like Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman. E.J. Manuel shouldn’t be in many fantasy lineups this week, outside of 2QB leagues where you have a starter on a bye week. Even then, it wouldn’t be the best of scenarios.
RBs: It’s now a three-way timeshare in the Ravens backfield, as Javorius Allen, Alex Collins, and Terrance West are all in the mix. It’s a less-than-ideal scenario because the offensive line is bad to begin with, similar to that of the Seahawks, except none of these guys are really that talented. The only one who deserves consideration is Allen, who has six targets in each of the last three games, though they’ve only amounted to 85 yards. The scary part is that his carries have gone down each week from 21, to 14, to then just eight and two carries the last two weeks. Running back is a nightmare, so he still gets flex consideration against a Raiders team that allowed Chris Thompson 150 yards receiving just two weeks ago. But still, you won’t feel great hitting that submit lineup button. Collins fumbled last week and may lose snaps, while West has been passed by not one, but two running backs on the depth chart. If Brandon Williams missing this game, I’m going to own so much Marshawn Lynch in DFS, it’ll be embarrassing. Seriously, why do I do this to myself? Oh yeah, because the Ravens have been awful without him and Urban on the defensive line. They have allowed the Jaguars and Steelers running backs to combine for over 425 total yards the last two weeks, including three touchdowns. The Raiders need a win and they aren’t going to rely on Manuel to get it – Lynch needs to be played.
WRs: There won’t be many people on Jeremy Maclin after his last two performances, but you should be back on him this week, as he’s the only wide receiver who can fill the role they need this week. As mentioned in the quarterbacks section, the Raiders bring a ferocious pass rush and the gameplan must involve Flacco getting the ball out quickly. Maclin has walked into the old Steve Smith role which includes him in the slot close to 70 percent of the time. The Raiders may be without starter David Amerson, who has been bad himself, so you can only imagine what his backup Dexter McDonald must look like. T.J. Carrie is the slot cornerback for them and he’s allowed 15 of 20 passes thrown his way to be completed, though he’s yet to allow a touchdown. You can definitely do worse than Maclin as your WR3 this week. You don’t want to rely on Mike Wallace a majority of the time, but considering he’s not just a deep threat at this point in his career and he will be lining up across from a combination of sub-par cornerbacks, he deserves WR4 consideration with bye weeks here. Breshad Perriman has been awful and has started to lose some snaps to Chris Matthews. On the season, Perriman has caught just two of his 15 targets for 11 yards. And you thought Kevin White was bad? This is the point where I tell you that Amari Cooper is nothing more than a WR3 until further notice. He’s played horrifically over the last few weeks and now has E.J. Manuel throwing him the ball. On top of that, he’ll see Jimmy Smith in coverage, which is not an easy task in itself. You likely have better options to play this week. Michael Crabtree is dealing with multiple injuries, and is expected to play, though he’s not as enticing of an option as usual. The Ravens have allowed just one wide receiver touchdown through four games and it was JuJu Smith-Schuster. Try and avoid the Raiders passing game until Carr returns.
TEs: Ben Watson has been used more than anticipated in the passing game, and it can be argued that it’s out of necessity at this point. With the wide receivers struggling, Watson has seen 17 targets over the last three weeks. The matchup against the Raiders is a pristine one, too, as they’ve allowed 218 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends on just 26 targets this year. Down a cornerback could further complicate their secondary, so Watson belongs in the high-end TE2 conversation this week. Jared Cook has a plus-matchup on his hands as well, but the question remains on whether or not Manuel can support a fantasy option in the passing game. Cook has been a bit of a headache himself throughout his career, so it’s tough to add another negative variable to the equation. The Ravens have allowed a 147.9 passer rating on 17 targets to tight ends through four games, but Cook still comes with plenty of risk. Consider him a TE2 in this matchup, though it should have been one to target.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Total: 47.0
Line: LAR by 2.5
If you were to have told me that the Rams would be favored against the Seahawks entering Week 5 and that Russell Wilson wasn’t hurt, I’d have called you a liar. But here we are, the Rams are the highest scoring team in football, while the Seahawks defense hasn’t been able to contain opposing run games, allowing over five yards per carry. This game is the boiling point for the Rams as a team – are they legitimate or have they been a product of the schedule? It’s a division game where the teams know each other extremely well, though there are a lot of new faces on the Rams. The total on this game suggests it’ll be of the higher scoring variety.
QBs: It appears that Russell Wilson is still good at football activities, eh? After starting out slow (like he always does), Wilson has thrown for 668 yards, six touchdowns, and then run for 64 yards and a touchdown over the last two contests. The Rams are a great team to continue his hot streak against, as they have allowed at least 27 points in each of their last three games, including 39 points to the 49ers a few Thursdays ago. Despite throwing just 36 and 37 times, both Brian Hoyer and Dak Prescott were both able to eclipse 22 fantasy points. If there was one quarterback you’d compare Wilson to, Prescott is the closest and he had complete control of his offense against them last week. Wilson is a QB1 against the team he torched for 229 yards and three touchdowns in Week 15 last year. Jared Goff has impressed a lot of people and forced a lot of analysts to change their tune. I was one of those expecting him to take a step forward, but still don’t think he finishes as a top-10 quarterback. His schedule has been littered with mediocre opponents to this point, which is why this game is so important to their team. It’s a chance to legitimize themselves as a clear contender, though I don’t expect Goff to post anything close to QB1 numbers. The Seahawks will be without Cliff Avril, which hurts, but their pass defense is their biggest strength. It’s why they’ve held quarterbacks to just 11.9 points per game, the seventh-fewest in the league. Goff is barely on the QB2 radar for this game.
RBs: The Seahawks running back picture lost one of the main pieces last week, which should have cleared up the image they project going forward, but it’s similar to the TV show “Lost.” After every episode, I’d leave with more questions than I started with. Chris Carson suffered a significant ankle injury ending his season, but wide receiver J.D. McKissic filled in and totaled four carries for 38 yards and a touchdown, while also catching a 27-yard touchdown pass. If you think I’d recommend starting him this week, you’re wrong. After Eddie Lacy was inactive for Weeks 2-3, he started the game against the Colts on Sunday night, and it was Thomas Rawls inactive, as was C.J. Prosise. If you had to bet on one of them, Lacy would be the most logical choice, but I’d stay away from all of them, as you risk a zero when you start them. It’s really too bad because the Rams have allowed a massive 487 yards on the ground over the last three weeks, including six touchdowns to running backs in that span. Pay attention to who is announced as the starter, because that’s who you’d play if given the choice. The matchup against the Seahawks doesn’t look quite as bad as we thought for Todd Gurley, who is just 0.3 fantasy points off the top fantasy scoring running back. He’s totaled at least 19 touches in every game and is averaging 26.5 touches per game. That is the territory where Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson last year, which is rare air. The Seahawks have allowed the combination of 49ers, Titans, and Colts running backs to rack up 393 yards on 68 carries (5.78 YPC) and two touchdowns the last three weeks. In his previous two meeting with the Seahawks, Gurley totaled 19/51/0 and 14/38/0 on the ground. His offensive line is clearing him nearly two full yards before contact, something that didn’t happen last year, as he averaged just 1.0 yards before contact in 2016. Gurley is an RB1 even in this matchup, which isn’t as bad as we initially thought.
WRs: We have a clear picture as to how the Seahawks want to use their wide receivers now that we have a four-week sample size. Doug Baldwin is obviously the No. 1 option, while Tyler Lockett has seen his snap count rise and has played at least 74 percent of the snaps in each of the last three weeks, and Paul Richardson is just behind at around 70 percent of snaps played. This will likely come down to matchups most weeks and it’s Baldwin this week. He will line up across from either Kayvon Webster, who has been dealing with some injuries and missed Weeks 2-3, or Troy Hill this week, which is a positive for him. With Aaron Donald blowing up the Seahawks offensive line, Wilson is going to need to get the ball out of his hand as fast as possible, and Baldwin has the lowest air yards per attempt on the team at just 8.8 yards, while Richardson is at a very high 14.9 yards down the field. Baldwin looked healthy against the Colts playing near a full complement of snaps, so get him back in your lineup and trot him out as a rock-solid WR2 this week. Richardson is just a touchdown-dependent WR4/5 option now that Lockett is healthy, though he has the better matchup of the two this week, as Richardson will see a lot of Nickell Robey-Coleman while Lockett will see more of Trumaine Johnson. Lockett is a great add in season-long leagues before he has a blowup game, though I don’t think this is the one. Sammy Watkins has been targeted just nine times in the three non-49ers games, making him a bench-worthy candidate against the Seahawks this week, as he’ll see plenty of Richard Sherman in coverage. They almost never have Sherman shadow opposing wide receivers, but I wonder if this is one of those situations, because if he doesn’t, Watkins will only be on his side of the field roughly 25 percent of the time. I own Watkins in a few places and I’ll be looking for other options if possible. Consider him a high-risk WR4 in this game, as the Seahawks have yet to allow a wide receiver more than 85 yards this season, and they played against the Packers. Cooper Kupp has the best matchup on the field against backup cornerback Justin Coleman, an undrafted free agent from 2015. Considering Goff’s comfort level with Kupp, he should be in consideration for a WR4 spot in lineups this week. Robert Woods is best left untouched in both season-long and DFS formats.
TEs: The other pass-catcher who is targeted underneath for the Seahawks is Jimmy Graham, who has been a major disappointment through four weeks. He’s still yet to score a touchdown despite seeing 26 targets, though you could choose to use that as a buy-low opportunity with the Seahawks run game struggling as much as they are. Tight ends have only seen 18 targets against the Rams, but on those targets, they’ve recorded 13 catches for 148 yards and two touchdowns, though oddly enough, both touchdowns were to backup tight ends (James Hanna, Garrett Celek). If Luke Willson scores a touchdown this week, so help me. The Rams continue to trot Tyler Higbee out there as their primary tight end, though he’s done nothing to garner more targets. Gerald Everett has shown some big play ability, but he’s only been targeted seven times, making both of them unplayable.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 53.0
Line: DAL by 2.0
The Cowboys are still favored, huh? Despite their poor defense matching up with the greatest quarterback of all-time, oddsmakers think the Cowboys win this game. This is one of those lines that don’t make any sense, though it’s likely due to the Packers defense and their inability to defend No. 1 wide receivers. The Packers will likely be without Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams for this game, but they may be getting back both of their offensive tackles Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari, who have missed multiple weeks. They should also be getting Mike Daniels back on the defensive line, which would be huge in trying to slow down Ezekiel Elliott. The injury to watch for on the Cowboys side of the ball is Sean Lee, who was forced to miss last week with a hamstring issue.
QBs: Whenever you get a chance to play Aaron Rodgers inside of a dome against a defense that has allowed eight passing touchdowns in the last three weeks, you do it. Did I mention that he doesn’t have his typical starting running back, or second string running back, which should lead to more pass attempts? Also, the game has one of the highest totals of the week. The Cowboys don’t have a particularly good pass rush and considering Rodgers should get both of his starting tackles back, as well as 10 days to prepare, he’s your QB1 this week. Dak Prescott shouldn’t be far behind Rodgers, though, as he will take advantage of a secondary that lacks a difference-maker. In fact, starting cornerback Damarious Randall reportedly left the stadium with the game still going on against the Bears last week after a spat with head coach Mike McCarthy. The Packers pressure is what will be key because Prescott will eat you alive if you don’t pressure him. Through four weeks, he’s been sacked just six times. Prescott doesn’t offer the ceiling that Rodgers does due to his limited options at wide receiver, but we already know that he offers what is maybe the best floor in fantasy football. He’s a QB1 this week.
RBs: The Packers are trying to float out there that Ty Montgomery may play this week, but I’m not buying it after reports saying he has multiple broken ribs. Even before his injury, his performance was lacking due to fatigue while running the ball. It seems that rookie Aaron Jones will get the start this week, and he’d definitely be someone to get into fantasy lineups. Of the four games the Cowboys have played, just two of them have actual run games, as we shouldn’t count the Giants or Cardinals in that group. In their two games against the Broncos and Rams, they have allowed 285 rushing yards, 150 receiving yards, and three total touchdowns. If Montgomery is in fact out, Jones is a rock-solid RB2 in this contest, especially if Sean Lee misses this game for the Cowboys as their best linebacker against the run. The Packers would likely bring up rookie Devante Mays from the practice squad, but it’d be Jones’ show. Meanwhile, the Packers are likely to get Mike Daniels back in the lineup after missing two games with a hip injury. If he’s at less than 100 percent, Ezekiel Elliott should destroy in this game. The Packers have allowed at least 103 rushing yards in each of the last three contests, including five touchdowns to running backs in those games. Elliott has touched the ball 50 times the last two weeks and accumulated 41.3 standard fantasy points and 48.3 PPR points. The Cowboys implied team total for this game sits at 27.5, which is massive for a home favorite. He’s in play for cash and tournaments in DFS this week.
WRs: This game is going to be fun for Jordy Nelson, who should take full advantage of the lackluster cornerbacks in Dallas. Their offseason acquisition Nolan Carroll missed the last two weeks with his concussion, but even if he returns, he’s nothing to run from. The Cowboys cornerback duo of Orlando Scandrick and Anthony Brown have already allowed four touchdowns in coverage this year on just 37 targets. You saw fellow veteran Larry Fitzgerald (who has struggled in every other game) shred this defense for 13/149/1 two weeks ago and then Cooper Kupp tagged them for 5/60/1 last week. As Nelson has gotten older, he’s been running a lot more underneath routes, similar to those two. He’s a can’t-miss WR1 in this contest. We don’t know if Davante Adams will be cleared in time for this game, but it’s worth noting that he has 10 days to get through the concussion protocol. If Adams plays, he belongs back in fantasy lineups as a high-upside WR3. In the playoff game against a completely different Cowboys defense last year, Cobb totaled seven catches for 62 yards on eight targets. Despite missing a game, Cobb ranks second among Packers wide receivers in targets, so he’s automatically on the WR3 radar every week he plays. You want as many parts of this game as possible. Dez Bryant posted his highest yardage total of the season last week against the Rams, but he should one-up that against the Packers this week. In the matchup between these two teams last year, Bryant saw 12 targets and hauled in nine of them for 132 yards and two touchdowns. It’ll be interesting to see if the Packers stick second-round rookie Kevin King on Bryant, as he semi-shadowed A.J. Green a few weeks ago and did a solid, though not great job against him. Bryant is a WR1 in this contest regardless, but it’s a matchup to watch, as the Packers drafted him for situations like this. Terrance Williams is still playing as the No. 2 receiver over Brice Butler for whatever reason. Butler did play 21 snaps last week after playing just seven the week before, so maybe they’re slowly bringing him along. If you want to play one in this projected shootout, Williams is still the one given his 22 targets through four weeks compared to just nine targets for Butler. Cole Beasley saw six targets last week, but he’s going to start losing snaps to Ryan Switzer if he doesn’t start making plays. He’s totaled just 86 yards on 20 targets throughout the season, giving you no reason to play him in season-long or DFS.
TEs: It seems like every week I’ve been expecting Martellus Bennett to start clicking with Aaron Rodgers and though it hasn’t happened yet, you really can’t be comfortable with any tight ends outside of Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, and Zach Ertz. He’s fourth in targets, so they are forcing him the ball despite the lack of production. The Cowboys last three opponents have been Tyler Higbee, Jermaine Gresham, and Virgil Green, so don’t pay too much attention to the overall stats they have allowed. This is a matchup against his former team, so you have the narrative, but it’s also one where we’re expecting a lot of points. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but plug Bennett into your season-long lineups as your TE1 and it will pay off soon. He’s the ideal tournament play in DFS, as nobody is talking about him after four lackluster performances. Jason Witten has come back down to earth after a ridiculous first two weeks of the season, and now has just two catches for 12 yards over the last two weeks. The Packers have actually held tight ends in check through four weeks and haven’t allowed any of them to top 45 yards receiving. Witten isn’t a huge red zone threat, either, but in a game with a projected total of 53 points, there is enough potential to keep him near the high-end TE2 range.
