San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 47.5
Line: PHI by 13.0
Here’s a matchup of two teams on two completely different paths, as the 49ers have still yet to win a game and have gone to their third-round rookie to start at quarterback, while the Eagles have Super Bowl aspirations. News dropped on Tuesday that Eagles Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters did indeed tear his ACL and is out for the season. That’s not going to make Carson Wentz‘s life easier by any means, though it helps that the rest of the offensive line is solid. The 49ers may be missing their right tackle Trent Brown for this game as well, as he suffered a concussion in their loss to the Cowboys. There are only so many ways this game can go, but none of them end in the 49ers favor.
QBs: C.J. Beathard‘s starting debut was pretty much what we expected, as he completed just under 60 percent of his passes for 6.2 yards per attempt. Fortunately for him, he gets his easiest competition yet when they head out to Philadelphia for this game. The Eagles have yet to hold a quarterback to fewer than 14.6 fantasy points and that was way back in Week 1. They’ve allowed at least one passing touchdown in every game, which is why they’ve now allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to the quarterback position. They may get Ronald Darby back this week, which would be a huge addition to their secondary, as he’s been out since Week 1 with a leg injury. The Eagles opponents are also averaging just 61 plays per game, leaving not much room for volume. Beathard is only an option in 2QB leagues. Carson Wentz is playing MVP-type football right now and sits as the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy, just ahead of Tom Brady. He’s gotten better seemingly every week, too, as he now has 11 passing touchdowns with just two interceptions in the last three weeks. So when you see the 49ers on the calendar, a team that’s allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of their seven games this year, including five touchdowns in their last two games, you should get excited. The fact that Wentz doesn’t have a great run-game only helps his potential because there isn’t a running back on the roster who has a 150-yard, two-touchdown game inside of them (I don’t think, anyways), making him a safe QB1 play. Add in the fact that the 49ers are traveling across the country to the east coast and it only amplifies the Wentz love.
RBs: Despite playing on the NFL’s worst team, Carlos Hyde is sitting tight as the No. 7 running back in fantasy football. He hasn’t looked great over the last three weeks, though, averaging just 3.06 yards per carry, so maybe his hip injury is bothering him more than they’re letting on. He’s still managed to find the end zone five times this year, which has helped his value, as have his 27 receptions which rank as the 10th-most among running backs, tied with Todd Gurley. Knowing that, Hyde is pretty game-script-proof. You have already learned that opponents average just 61 plays against the Eagles, but did you know that there hasn’t been a single running back who has carried the ball more than 13 times? In fact, Kareem Hunt was the only running back to total more than 10 carries against them. Because of that, they’ve yet to allow more than 81 rushing yards to an entire team of running backs, let alone one individually. They’ve allowed three rushing touchdowns on the year and three receiving, so I’d bet on Hyde getting a touchdown somewhere in this game. If they get down on the goal-line, it’s very likely they go to Hyde rather than let the rookie make a mistake. Hyde should be played as a middling RB2 who will disappoint if he doesn’t score. The Eagles stable of running backs got even uglier after last week now that Wendell Smallwood rejoined the circus that is their running back rotation. The snaps went like this in Week 7: LeGarrette Blount 25, Smallwood 24, Corey Clement 12, Kenjon Barner 4. The fact that they still had four running backs active tells you all you need to know. They’ll be quick to pull the plug if one of them struggles. Blount went back to looking like the slow plodding running back he was in the preseason versus the Redskins, totaling just 29 yards on 14 carries, though 21 of his yards came on one carry. You’ll never be able to play any of them with confidence, though they should all see work in this game against the 49ers, as they are allowing a league-high 34.3 carries per game to opponents. They should lead throughout making it a Blount game, though it could just as easily be a ‘get Smallwood going’ game. Consider Blount a boring RB3, while Smallwood is more of an upside RB4 who contributes more in the passing game.
WRs: In rookie Beathard’s first start, the target distribution went like this: Marquise Goodwin 8, Pierre Garcon 7, Trent Taylor 5. It was Garcon’s second-lowest target total of the season and he’s still yet to find the end zone through seven games. The Eagles have already allowed nine wide receivers to total 60 or more yards against them, including four of them with 99 or more yards. They have only allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers, which isn’t much at all, but the 1,280 yards ranks as the fourth-most in the league. This plays right into Garcon’s strengths, making him a high-end WR3, though he’s lost some of his safety with Beathard under center. Goodwin is nothing more than a big-play-hopeful in fantasy, as he needs to land a big play because he cannot consistently make plays underneath. He’s hit plays of 48 and 51 yards in the last three weeks, but I’m not pushing my luck with someone who has totaled 26 yards or less in four of his seven games this year. Trent Taylor has been getting volume, but not much has come of it. He may have a future if this offense becomes more potent, but not right now. Let’s get something straight here – I’m not a massive Alshon Jeffery supporter, but that doesn’t mean I can’t recognize a good matchup when I see it. I aggressively ranked Jeffery as a top-10 wide receiver last week knowing that the Redskins would be without their top cornerback Josh Norman, and they were, yet Jeffery failed to do anything while Carson Wentz was throwing for 268 yards and four touchdowns. He’s now totaled 38 yards or less in four of his seven games with the Eagles, and that’s despite him seeing an average of 7.7 targets per game. In fact, Nelson Agholor has 19 fewer targets than Jeffery, but he’s outscored him in PPR leagues 90.6 to 75.4. It’s difficult to trust Jeffery when he doesn’t even need to be heavily involved in order for the Eagles offense to operate smoothly. Consider Jeffery a WR2 in this matchup against the 49ers that might even be better than last week’s matchup (though he didn’t do anything with it). The 49ers best cornerback has been K’Waun Williams, who plays the slot and will see the majority of Agholor, while Jeffery will see a mix of Dontae Johnson and Rashard Robinson. Those two have combined to allow five touchdowns in coverage this year and are known to be secondary to attack on the perimeter, which is where Jeffery plays 80 percent of his snaps. Agholor should be treated as nothing more than a high-end WR4 this week, while Torrey Smith could have one of his big-play games against this weak secondary. It’s hard to play him in anything but a tournament, though, as he’s seen just three targets over the last two weeks combined.
TEs: Most were expecting a lot more fireworks out of the Beathard/George Kittle connection, as Kittle finished the game with just two targets, his lowest total of the season. Oddly enough, Kittle played just 47 percent of the snaps, his lowest since way back in Week 3, as he’d been on the field for 92 percent of the snaps in Week 6. There’s been no word saying that Kittle was playing through an injury, so we’ll have to call it an outlier. The matchup against the Eagles isn’t a good one, anyways, so maybe just take this week off with Kittle to see if there’s a trend that will develop. Prior to getting hosed by Jordan Reed last week, the Eagles had allowed just one top-12 performance to a tight end and that was Travis Kelce. Kittle belongs on fantasy benches until we know what’s going on with him. You are starting Zach Ertz every week in season-long, so you didn’t come here for that. You likely want to know what his upside is. Well, I can tell you that it’s sky-high no matter the matchup, because he’s been great even in bad matchups this year. After scoring just 13 touchdowns on the first 381 targets of his career, Ertz has now scored five touchdowns on his last 40 targets, something that’s quite unsustainable. But the good news is that he’s even totaled at least 81 yards in four of his seven games, with just one game under 55 yards. The 49ers had been defending the tight end very well until last week when they allowed Jason Witten to total 54 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the TE6 on the week. Prior to that, they hadn’t allowed a top-20 performance. This is a week where I’d go contrarian and play Jeffery in DFS, as we have to anticipate some regression for the both of them. Ertz is still a solid play, regardless.
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets
Total: 46.5
Line: ATL by 4.5
Had oddsmakers put up a line on this game a few weeks ago, it would have been the Falcons favored by double digits, even on the road. Instead, the game is considered to be a close one now that the Jets are sitting at 3-4 and the Falcons have lost three straight games. This really does have the feel of a ‘get-right’ game for the Falcons after we’ve heard nothing but “fire Sarkisian” and “what’s wrong with the Falcons?” The Jets have surprised us, but at some point we’ll be saying they are who we thought they were. Both teams are relatively healthy entering Week 8.
QBs: If it was Matt Ryan‘s year in 2016, it’s definitely not in 2017. He’s now thrown just seven touchdowns through six games, even though he’s had a light schedule to this point. He’s thrown a touchdown pass in every game, but has failed to eclipse 300 yards passing since way back in Week 1. The Jets present another positive opportunity, as they have allowed at least two touchdown passes in five of their seven games, including eight touchdown passes in their last three games. Keep in mind that two of their last three games were against the combinations of Jay Cutler/Matt Moore and DeShone Kizer/Kevin Hogan. Considering how well they’ve defended the run, it’s easy to see why they’ve allowed so much through the air. Ryan hasn’t been great this year, but that doesn’t mean he can’t put together a QB1 performance against the Jets. He can be considered in cash-games in DFS and it wouldn’t shock me if he threw for 280 yards and three touchdowns this week. His floor this week should be around 15 fantasy points. Josh McCown sits as the No. 13 quarterback through seven weeks, sandwiched in between Jared Goff and Carson Palmer. He’s now thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of his last six games, including each of his last three games. The issue with counting on that to continue against the Falcons is because they’ve held three of the six quarterbacks they’ve played to less than 13 fantasy points. Those who did top that number: Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady. You can’t stick McCown in that conversation, but you can stick him into your 2QB leagues rather confidently as they attempt to hang with the Falcons.
RBs: We talked about it here last week, how Devonta Freeman has simply posted better fantasy numbers at home or in a dome. That trend continued against the Patriots last week, though that had a lot to do with the play-calling and not so much to do with his ability. The Jets shipped off Sheldon Richardson and haven’t even skipped a beat, allowing just 3.85 yards per carry on the season. The reason they’ve allowed so many fantasy points to opposing running backs (8th-most) this year is due to the sheer volume they’ve faced. There has been just one team who didn’t total at least 22 carries against them and that was the Dolphins back in Week 3. They do allow a ton of work to receiving backs, too, as there have already been four running backs to accumulate 49 or more receiving yards against them, which Freeman does extremely well. Freeman should be in lineups as an RB1 this week, though he’s not necessarily a great DFS option. Tevin Coleman was really disappointing in last week’s loss to the Patriots, as he touched the ball a season-low six times for a measly 16 yards. Now that Mohamed Sanu is back in the fold, Coleman goes back to that boom-or-bust RB3 he’s been the majority of his career. The Jets run-game went back to normal last week, as Matt Forte led the team with 28 snaps, while Bilal Powell played 21 snaps, and Elijah McGuire played 7 snaps. Teams have been able to run on the Falcons, as they’ve allowed 4.5 yards per carry on the season, but it’s important to note that nobody has rushed for a touchdown since back in Week 2 against them. The best performers against them are usually the pass-catching backs, as there have already been six different running backs who have totaled 28 or more receiving yards. That would be Powell’s specialty, though Forte actually leads the team with 19/158/0 receiving. Consider Forte a low-upside RB4 who’ll get 10-12 touches, while Powell is more of a low-end RB3 who comes with big play potential. McGuire shouldn’t be rostered in season-long fantasy leagues.
WRs: The Falcons were able to gameplan to get Julio Jones the ball last week, though it didn’t help very much. The fact of the matter is that Taylor Gabriel hasn’t provided the same spark to this offense that he did last year. Mohamed Sanu has played well out of the slot, but the Falcons need to get their vertical game going. The Jets have used Morris Claiborne to shadow opposing No. 1 wide receivers, so don’t be shy about playing Jones in DFS this week. Claiborne is a former first-round pick who was allowed to hit free agency because he had just one good season with the Cowboys. He’s not a top-10 cornerback. Gabriel has been better in a dome, so he doesn’t come with much appeal, though the only way teams have been able to move the ball on the Jets is via the air. He’s just a WR6 that will make people look smart if he catches a long touchdown, though I wouldn’t bank on it in this matchup. Sanu’s matchup with Buster Skrine in the slot is a good one, as you saw Jarvis Landry tag him up last week for 7/93/1. Outside of the game Sanu got hurt and left early, he’s seen at least six targets in every game. He deserves WR4 consideration here. The Jets wide receivers have been fantasy viable because Josh McCown has played his best football in quite some time. Robby Anderson leads the team in targets (46), but hasn’t totaled the production of Jermaine Kearse, who has outscored him in PPR formats 83.8 to 66.1 to this point despite seeing 10 fewer targets. The fact that McCown continues to target Anderson says they want to get him the ball, but that he’s more of a boom-or-bust option. His average air yards per target sits at 13.8, while Kearse’s is at 10.1 yards. The Falcons haven’t been a team to target with wide receivers outside of slot guys, as they have allowed just one wide receiver to top 71 yards this season (Davante Adams). The slot is where a lot of the touchdowns have come from, but we know Jeremy Kerley isn’t a red zone option. I wouldn’t actively target any of them in DFS, but consider Anderson the best bet for a big play, making him and Kearse WR4’s, while Kerley is a WR5 who could have a shot to score.
TEs: What in the world did the Falcons do last week? I’m sure a lot of you were watching that game thinking to yourself, “The biggest weakness on the Patriots has been to the tight end position!” It’s what separates good coaches from mediocre ones. Hooper had seen 16 targets in the previous two weeks, but walked out of that game with just one target. His 10.7 yards per target ranks No. 2 among tight ends with 20 or more targets, so why include him, right? Now that my rant is done, Hooper will be impossible to trust outside of DFS tournament lineups until we see him consistently involved while Mohamed Sanu is on the field. Opposing teams have only completed 29-of-50 pass attempts to tight ends, but they went for 346 yards and five touchdowns. But the Falcons don’t target their athletic tight end, so you can’t play him in season-long leagues. Approach with caution even in DFS. Now onto a tight end who’s been used more than most thought he would, Austin Seferian-Jenkins. With that being said, his production thus far hasn’t been what everyone might think. His 5.1 yards per target is the second-lowest in the NFL among tight ends with 20 or more targets. Eric Ebron is the worst. Knowing that, it shouldn’t surprise you to know that Seferian-Jenkins has still yet to reach 50 yards in any game, making him a bust if he doesn’t score you that touchdown, which he has in the last three weeks. The Falcons are one of the few teams left in the NFL who has yet to allow a tight end touchdown and they’ve allowed just 290 yards on 44 targets to them. With how hot he’s been it’s hard to sit him, but know that this isn’t a great matchup, making him just a low-end TE/high-end TE2.
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks
Total: 45.5
Line: SEA by 5.5
This is not the line I thought we’d see for this game, not with the way the Texans offense has been playing. It’s odd because the opening total for this game was set at 42.5, but has already gone up three full points. The Seahawks defense may not be what it once was, but they’ve still allowed just one team to score more than 18 points against them. This game will be at home where they’ve allowed an average of just 15 points per game. Meanwhile, the Texans offense has scored at least 33 points in each of their last four games, though those games were against the Patriots, Titans, Chiefs, and Browns, all defenses who’ve underperformed all season. This will be a great measuring stick for the Texans organization, because they’ve lost a lot of good players on defense. They will, however, get starting left tackle Duane Brown back this week, who has been holding out since the start of the season. The Seahawks will continue to be without Cliff Avril and possibly Michael Bennett who is dealing with a foot injury, which would hurt their defense significantly.
QBs: Despite already getting his bye week out of the way and not starting in Week 1, Deshaun Watson sits as the No. 5 quarterback heading into Week 8, right in front of Russell Wilson. He’s totaled at least 17.7 fantasy points in each of his last five games, even though he’s failed to throw the ball more than 34 times in any single game. That’s the scary part – his touchdown percentage cannot continue at the rate it’s been going. To give you a measuring stick, Matt Ryan threw for a touchdown on 7.1 percent of his passes last year; Watson has thrown a touchdown on 8.6 percent of his passes this year. If you want to shrink down his sample size to the last four games, he’s thrown a touchdown on 10.2 percent of his passes. Even if you’re a Watson believer, his touchdowns will not continue at this rate. The Seahawks have yet to allow a top-12 quarterback this year and that includes Aaron Rodgers. The area Watson should be able to succeed is on the ground, as the Seahawks have already allowed four quarterbacks rush for more than 20 yards. Knowing they’ve only allowed five passing touchdowns on the year is scary though, making Watson just a low-end QB1 this week, though he has a high floor. Russell Wilson is used to being pressured, but the Texans are going to have trouble pressuring anyone without J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus on the injured reserve. Considering how bad the Seahawks run game is, Wilson should throw the ball a lot more than Watson in this game. Wilson has already hit 37 pass attempts in four of the last five games. Even with Watt and Mercilus, the Texans had allowed two of their last three opponents finish with top-four fantasy performances. Wilson is a QB1 this week and one that I’d prefer over Watson.
RBs: Since the start of Week 2, the Texans backfield has been more of a timeshare than most realize, as Lamar Miller has carried the ball 81 times compared to D’Onta Foreman‘s 49 carries, which is close to a 60/40 timeshare. After struggling against the run to start the season, the Seahawks have started to come around, allowing just 162 yards on 52 carries (3.12 YPC) and one touchdown over their last four games. Those games did include Frank Gore and Orleans Darkwa, but also included the smoking hot Todd Gurley. We know who Miller is at this point, right? I mean, he’s like a younger Gore on the stat sheet. You can lock him down for 50-80 yards on the ground, but not much more. He comes with stability at an unstable position in the NFL right now, making him a low-end RB2, while Foreman is just a desperation RB4 who is trending up. Nobody wanted to believe me when I said that even if you knew who was starting for the Seahawks that you wouldn’t want to play them. Well, over the last two games we’ve seen Eddie Lacy total 53 yards on 20 carries and Thomas Rawls total 56 yards on 19 carries. Neither are heavily involved in the passing game, making it risky to play either of them as anything more than a RB4. If forced to pick one, it’d have to be Rawls as he just gets downhill a little quicker than Lacy. C.J. Prosise and J.D. McKissic appear to share the same role and now that we know McKissic isn’t the savior of the run game, Prosise would be the preferred option of the two, though neither are advisable plays.
WRs: Coming off a week in which he saw a season-low four targets against the Browns, DeAndre Hopkins will likely get into the double-digits again this week. That’s due to the fact that Richard Sherman stays firmly planted at LCB, which is where Hopkins is at just 36 percent of the time. Instead, Sherman will see a lot of Will Fuller, who plays on his side roughly 67 percent of the time. That means Hopkins will line up across from Shaquill Griffin, the Seahawks third-round rookie. He’s played well to this point, but he’s also the weaker point on the defense. Hopkins should be played as a high-end WR2 in a game where it’ll be tough for the Texans to come across points, though he’s the one I’d bet on to score if any of the wide receivers do. Fuller is just a desperation WR4 this week and not one that I’d go out of my way to play. Braxton Miller is back in the lineup, essentially erasing both him and Bruce Ellington as season-long options, as the Texans appear ready to split the reps between the two. Of course Doug Baldwin would have his best game of the season in his worst matchup last week, as he burned Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for 92 yards and a touchdown. It’s fair to say that he’s over his groin injury that bothered him in previous weeks. He’ll match-up with Kareem Jackson this week and that’s a matchup he should win consistently. He’s already allowed 326 yards in his coverage on just 30 targets, and keep in mind that’s against slot wide receivers. Baldwin has the looks of a WR1 in this game. Tyler Lockett has out-targeted Paul Richardson this season (31 to 29), though his production doesn’t show it as he trails Richardson in yards (269 to 224) and touchdowns (3 to 0). It’s a scary proposition to play Richardson considering he’s seen just 10 targets over the last three weeks combined, but he’s earning more and more of Wilson’s trust by the week. The Texans may get Kevin Johnson back this week which would bump both of the Seahawks perimeter wide receivers down, as he and Johnathan Joseph are a respectable pair. If Johnson is back, Richardson is just a WR5 while Lockett is a punt-play WR6 who may still be able to spin a big play. Should Johnson miss this game, give each of them a bump in the rankings, as Richardson would then be a low-end WR4 and Lockett a WR5.
TEs: Prior to the bye, we saw Ryan Griffin playing the majority of snaps for the Texans, though Stephen Anderson was getting some snaps and targets creating somewhat of a timeshare. Over the last two games, Anderson has caught four passes for 80 yards, while Griffin caught five passes for 74 yards, though neither of them scored. The Seahawks have been allowing a lot of production to tight ends, though it’s been due to a lot of volume, as tight ends have averaged 9.5 targets per game against them, volume that neither Griffin or Anderson will see. Because of that, neither are suggested streaming options. Jimmy Graham had a golden opportunity last week and although he totaled 3/51/1 against the Giants, it should have been so much more because he dropped a touchdown (literally went right through his hands) and another deep pass that would have gone for 20-plus yards. Considering the scarcity at the tight end position, Graham still holds TE1 value against the Texans, who we are unsure how they’ll adapt to life without two of their top pass-rushers. If Week 5 was any glimpse, Travis Kelce was able to post 8/98/0 by halftime. They did allow a touchdown to Seth DeValve before their bye as well, though he totaled just nine yards in that game. Keep Graham in lineups.
