Per usual, there are some holdovers on this roster from the Thur/Sun/Mon lineup — five, to be exact. Having said that, there is a bit of new analysis to add to some of those players as a result of some surprising NFL news after the FanDuel NFL Lineup Advice: Week 11 (Thur/Sun/Mon) piece was published. The roster below features a three-man stack and an RB/DST stack, too.
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Quarterback
Derek Carr (OAK): $8,000 vs. Patriots (in Mexico City)
Carr was my pick for the quarterback on the Thur/Sun/Mon roster, and he’s once again my pick here. Since touting him then, though, the game’s over/under total has risen from 52 points to 53.5 points with the spread remaining seven points in favor of the Patriots, per Pinnacle. That’s a favorable line move for Carr and all offensive players involved in the contest.
Running Back
Melvin Gordon (LAC): $7,800 vs. Bills
Gordon’s the second carryover of five. Obviously, I still love him, but his value could get a bump with news of the Bills benching Tyrod Taylor in favor of Nathan Peterman. Peterman’s a rookie making his first career start, and if he’s overwhelmed, it could result in more short fields and more touchdown scoring chances for Gordon.
Alvin Kamara (NO): $7,500 vs. Redskins
Kamara’s the first fresh face on the roster. New Orleans struck gold selecting Kamara in the third round of this year’s NFL Draft. He’s averaging 87.7 yards from scrimmage per game along with 4.8 receptions per game, and he’s scored six touchdowns, per Pro-Football-Reference. The first-year pro’s explosiveness has helped him rack up an NFL leading 6.5 yards per carry.
Unlike most complementary backs, Kamara has been consistent and received steady touches. He’s caught at least three passes in every game, and he’s bested 70 yards from scrimmage in six straight contests. Don’t confuse consistency for a lack of high ceiling. The do-it-all back has eclipsed 100 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games and scored at least one touchdown in three straight games.
The Saints have a tantalizing implied team over/under total of 29.25 points and a spread of 7.5 points favoring them. The spread bodes well for both Mark Ingram and Kamara being force fed the ball from start to finish.
Wide Receiver
Michael Crabtree (OAK): $7,500 vs. Patriots (in Mexico City)
Amari Cooper (OAK): $7,300 vs. Patriots (in Mexico City)
Crabtree brings the carryover total to three, and you can read why I prefer him to Cooper if you’re only selecting one of the two wideouts here. On this roster, I’m not selecting just one. There’s enough football to go around, and the soft matchup with a giving secondary that lifts Crabtree’s value also enhances Cooper’s.
Nearly half of Cooper’s 462 yards receiving this year came in a huge Thursday Night Football game in Week 7 in which he erupted for an 11-210-2 line, but that specific game illustrates the type of upside Cooper possesses. Since that game, he’s continued to see a steady diet of targets with 19 in two games, but his nine receptions for 106 yards on them leaves something to be desired.
Double-digit targets are well within reach for both receivers with Crabtree the more likely red-zone target and Cooper the better bet to rip off a long score (or scores, perhaps). FO ranks the Patriots 30th in pass defense, 30th defending No. 1 receivers, and 13th defending No. 2 receivers.
Ted Ginn Jr. (NO): $5,600 vs. Redskins
Remember that sweet implied over/under total of 29.25 points I noted in Kamara’s write-up? Yeah, there’s plenty of wiggle room for more than one Saints player to rack up fantasy points. Ginn Jr. doesn’t need a ton of volume to provide a helpful ROI, either.
The home-run hitter is averaging 16.7 yards per reception this season, and Drew Brees‘ yards per attempt and adjusted yards per attempt are significantly higher at home than on the road throughout his career with the Saints. I draw your attention to Ginn Jr.’s big-play ability and Brees’ propensity to rip off big completions at home specifically because of the matchup with the Redskins. Washington has allowed the sixth most 20-plus yard completions and is tied for the seventh most 40-plus yard completions surrendered to opponents this season.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,500 @ Giants
Kelce’s going to be super chalky, and he’s the fourth carryover from the Thur/Sun/Mon lineup. I have nothing to add to his analysis from that piece, and he might as well come pre-loaded with all of my lineups this week.
Kicker
Nick Novak (LAC): $4,500 vs. Bills
The minimum priced kickers are an unexciting group, and Novak’s the best of a bad-to-mediocre lot. The Bills rank tied for 20th in field-goal attempts against them, but their suddenly struggling defense could surrender more scoring opportunities — including field goals — going forward. Novak has attempted only six field goals in five games, and he’s missed two.
One of the misses was from 50-plus yards, though, and he converted his other 50-plus yard attempt. He’s also converted all 11 of his point-after attempts.
Defense/Special Teams
Chargers D/ST (LAC): $4,300 vs. Bills
I liked the Chargers a lot when I touted them earlier in the week with Tyrod Taylor still expected to start. I like them even more against a rookie signal caller making his first NFL start. As I previously noted, the Chargers are tied for second in sacks (29), and the Bills are tied for seventh in sacks allowed (28) this year.
Perhaps Peterman will take fewer chances extending plays and take fewer sacks than Taylor as a result, but even if you choose to take that pessimistic viewpoint, the odds of the Chargers forcing turnovers is greatly enhanced by Taylor and his three interceptions in nine games this year headed to the bench. Taylor has his share of faults, but he’s done an elite job of avoiding turnovers. Peterman’s 15 interceptions in 26 games played for Pitt are identical to Taylor’s 15 thrown in 38 starts for the Bills.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
