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NFL Trade Deadline Recap (Fantasy Football)

NFL Trade Deadline Recap (Fantasy Football)

The NFL trade deadline has come and passed, and there are plenty of fantasy implications. Below you’ll find the fantasy-noteworthy deals that took place as well as the fantasy impact of those deals.

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49ers acquire QB Jimmy Garoppolo from Patriots for ’18 second-round pick

Winner(s): QB – Jimmy Garoppolo, WR – Pierre Garcon, and TE – George Kittle
Garoppolo is the obvious big winner in this deal. He goes from backing up Tom Brady to a 49ers team he’ll eventually start for. How soon he’ll be up to speed and ready to start remains to be seen. Obviously the learning curve for a quarterback being tasked with learning a new offense is steeper than for a player at another position. In other words, while a guy like Adrian Peterson immediately stepped into the starting lineup for the Cardinals the week they acquired him, that’s not going to happen with Garoppolo. How quickly could he be ready? Fellow former Patriots’ quarterback and teammate Jacoby Brissett was dealt to the Colts on September 2, and he made a late-game cameo in the Colts’ season opener on September 10. He’s been the starter for Indianapolis since. While I’m sure the 49ers would like to get a chance to evaluate him in games as soon as possible before he becomes an unrestricted free agent at season’s end, forfeiting a second-round pick for his services is a good indicator they view him as a long-term answer at quarterback, and forcing him into game action before he’s fully assimilated the playbook would be a shortsighted move. The 49ers play two more games before their bye. If I were to place a wager on when I think he’ll take over the reigns of San Francisco’s offense, Week 12 following the bye seems somewhat logical — albeit in a tough-as-nails matchup against the Seahawks. Garoppolo isn’t a player who needs to be scooped up in single-QB, re-draft leagues, but he’s worth nabbing in two-QB formats and dynasty/keeper leagues. Garcon and Kittle are listed as winners, but that’s primarily from a dynasty-league perspective. I wouldn’t advise dramatically altering their re-draft value.

Loser(s): QB – C.J. Beathard
Beathard’s short-term and long-term outlooks were both kneecapped by this trade. He could start a few more weeks, but that’s probably about as good as it gets. If you’re in a league that starts two quarterbacks, that’s about the only type of format where Beathard temporarily remains rosterable. Of course, that’s about the only format he was already rostered in.

Seahawks acquire OT Duane Brown from Texans for CB Jeremy Lane, ’18 fifth-round pick, and ’19 second-round pick.

Winner(s): Seattle’s entire offense
Seattle’s offensive line is dreadful. However, they addressed Russell Wilson‘s blindside by acquiring above-average left tackle Duane Brown. One man can’t fix all that ails the offensive line, but it’s a big start. Also, I believe there’s a potential trickle down effect. Rees Odhiambo has served as the club’s left tackle thus far and been thoroughly over matched. His NFL.com scouting report listed him as a guard despite playing tackle at Boise State, and perhaps he could be kicked inside and take a starting guard gig from Oday Aboushi or Ethan Pocic. Regardless, Odhiambo has earned the lowest Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade at tackle, and the line will improve tremendously with him not playing left tackle. If it also improves with him showing competence somewhere else along the line, then that’s gravy.

Loser(s): None
Brown held out Houston’s first seven games before debuting last week. Sure, having an above-average tackle would help the Texans’ offense, but they’ve been mighty fine while he’s held out, thus, no one’s stock is hurt on Houston’s high-flying, Deshaun Watson-led offense.

Eagles acquire RB Jay Ajayi from Dolphins for a ’18 fourth-round pick.

Winner(s): RB – Jay Ajayi, RB – Kenyan Drake, and RB – Damien Williams
Ajayi ranks sixth in carries (138) and carries per game (19.7) this year, but running behind an offensive line that Football Outsiders (FO) ranks 31st in adjusted line yards (3.15) this season has resulted in an awful 3.4 yards per carry, underwhelming 66.4 rushing yards per game, and zero touchdowns. He upgrades offensive lines joining Philadelphia as they rank 21st in adjusted line yards (3.91). Perhaps Philadelphia’s offensive line takes a step back in run blocking with Jason Peters out for the rest of the season, but they’re unlikely to fall to Miami’s depths in the rankings. Ajayi goes from being a focal point of a bad offense to joining one of the best in the NFL. The Eagles rank fourth in scoring offense (29.0 points per game). Ajayi’s volume will almost certainly take a hit, but his efficiency should get a big lift that more than offsets ceding some touches to Philadelphia’s incumbent runners.

Ajayi being shipped out the door opens up a ton of touches for Drake and Williams. The latter has averaged more snaps played per game, but the former played more snaps (12 compared to eight) in the most recent game. The Dolphins spent a third-round pick on Drake just last year with Ajayi and Williams already on the roster, so that could lend insight into the team’s view of the two remaining backs since a third-round pick isn’t small potatoes in terms of draft capital. 3000000650950%2F2016-Draft-profile-RB-Kenyan-Drake-Alabama”>Here’s a link to a video evaluation of Drake prior to last year’s NFL Draft. I would rank Drake ahead of Williams for waiver priority, but both should be added to see how playing time shakes out. Both have their value capped by being tied to a bad offense and a terrible offensive line, and a hot-hand or committee situation is another possibility that could depress the fantasy value of each. With six teams on bye this week and Oakland surrendering the seventh most fantasy points per game to running backs this year, according to Pro-Football Reference, both Drake and Williams could be startable if your RB/Flex spots are hit hard by the byes and/or injuries.

Loser(s): RB – LeGarrette Blount and RB – Wendell Smallwood
The Eagles executive vice president of football operations stated that Blount is still Philadelphia’s starting running back, but if Ajayi returns to 2016 form, he’s a better runner than Blount and outpaced Blount in FO’s DYAR and DVOA last season. Blount’s a non-factor in the passing game, and he’s been a touchdown-or-bust option thus far this year. Ajayi is almost certain to cut into Blount’s early-down work if not outright usurping the bulk of it (which I expect to be the case) as well as his goal-line work and closer role. Smallwood played fewer snaps (13) than Blount (35) and Corey Clement (19) last week, and he can be cut in fantasy leagues with Ajayi now in the fold.

Bills acquire WR Kelvin Benjamin from Panthers for ’18 third-round pick, and ’18 seventh-round pick.

Winner(s): QB – Tyrod Taylor, WR – Russell Shepard, WR – Curtis Samuel, and TE – Greg Olsen
Taylor is the biggest winner here. He’s been tasked with running an offense that’s devoid of talent at wide receiver so far this season, and now he gets a new top target to air it out to. FO ranks Benjamin 14th in DYAR and 15th in DVOA this year out of 69 qualified wide receivers. Benjamin ranked behind McCaffrey and Funchess in targets and receptions, but he led Carolina in receiving yards (475) and receiving yards per game (59.4). The move to Buffalo could result in a little extra work as Buffalo’s unquestioned top pass-catching option, but that’s far from a foregone conclusion with Buffalo ranking dead last in pass attempts (443) this season, The move is a lateral one for Benjamin’s fantasy value, and he remains a WR2. An improved offense could marginally improve the value of LeSean McCoy, but he’s already valued as an RB1. Like Shady, McCaffrey and Funchess are excluded from the winners section due to any value boost they receive from the trade being negligible. The rookie runner and third-year wide out were already one and two on the Panthers in targets, and any slight uptick in looks is probably offset by becoming higher priorities for defenses to stop. Shepard and rookie second-round pick Samuel haven’t done much in ancillary roles, but both become worth nabbing in 14-team leagues or larger with Benjamin’s 6.4 targets per game up for grabs. If you have the option to pick up either one, I’d lean in favor of the highly-explosive Samuel despite the fact he’s played fewer snaps in every game than Shepard. Olsen is on the mend from a broken foot, but the hope is that he’ll be able to play by Week 12 at the Jets. With Benjamin out for the entire 2015 season, Olsen thrived and set single-season highs in receiving yards (1,104), yards per reception (14.3), and yards per game (69.0) while also reeling in 4.8 receptions per game (third highest mark in his career) and seven touchdowns (second highest total in his career).

Loser(s): QB – Cam Newton
Newton’s coming off of his season-low 154 yards passing in a cushy matchup against the Buccaneers, and now he loses his best weapon. The 2015 NFL MVP is tied with rookie DeShone Kizer for the most interceptions thrown (11) this year, and his 230.1 yards passing per game is 18th. He’s also tied for 15th in touchdown passes (10) while playing one more game than two of the three quarterbacks he’s tied with. Newton’s ability to do damage with his legs (31.9 yards per game and three touchdown runs) can offset some of his passing deficiencies, but his work on the ground falls between his MVP campaign and disappointing encore, and his TD%, INT%, and passing yards per game are all worse than his career marks. Newton’s little more than a volatile streaming option or QB2 in two-QB formats.


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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