Two-start pitchers are one of the more tenuous aspects of not just fantasy baseball, but fantasy sports as a whole. Weather is always a crucial and annoying factor to consider early in the season – look no further than the winter wonderland that was Wrigley Field on Monday. Injuries and the avoidance of injuries are also huge considerations, especially when dealing with pitchers. Managers (mostly Gabe Kapler) have seemed quite prone to keep pitches and innings on the low-end of the spectrum and buying their guys an extra day of rest here or there is never off the table. So, if that weren’t enough to worry about, this week has also seen brawls and suspensions thrown in the mix. This time of year is complex enough. Let’s keep the spikes low and pitches in front of the batter. I’m looking at you Luis Perdomo.
Get free start/sit and waiver wire advice for your fantasy team 
Don’t Think Twice
Dallas Keuchel (4/16 @SEA, 4/21 @CWS)
Jacob deGrom (4/16 vs. WSH, 4/21 @ATL)
Aaron Nola (4/16 @ATL, 4/21 vs. PIT)
Masahiro Tanaka (4/16 vs. MIA, 4/22 vs. TOR)
Patrick Corbin (4/17 vs. SF, 4/22 vs. SD)
Lance McCullers (4/17 @SEA, 4/22 @CWS)
Rick Porcello (4/17 @LAA, 4/22 @OAK)
Widely-Owned Options
Kevin Gausman (4/17 @DET, 4/22 vs. CLE)
I’m not overflowing with confidence in Gausman, who has continued to struggle in April so far this season, but the schedule sets up well. Detroit and Cleveland entered play Thursday with the lowest and second-lowest wRC+ in baseball. Also, Gausman’s K/9 (9.00) and swinging strike rate (12.7%) reinforce his decision to turn heavily to his splitter earlier in the calendar than usual.
Danny Duffy (4/16 @TOR, 4/21 @DET)
The lefty has been susceptible to the long ball through three starts, primarily due to a massive fly ball tendency (51.1%). Understandably, that might cause trepidation when going into Rogers Centre to face a team with 19 home runs in 13 games, but, you know, the Tigers and above-average strikeout ability make up for much of that fear.
Ian Kennedy (4/17 @TOR, 4/22 @DET)
Pretty much the same story as his teammate except he’s not left-handed. Kennedy did have some eye-popping stats through two starts. The combination of a 39.3% line drive rate and a 46.7% hard contact rate is always mortifying – especially when heading to a small, temperature-controlled dome – but he’s come through with three great starts so far. Survive Toronto. Thrive in Detroit.
James Paxton (4/16 vs. HOU, 4/21 @TEX)
This is more of just a formality than anything. In a vacuum, Paxton is among the class of pitcher you generally just pencil in your lineup each week, but Houston is always daunting. Though, if Paxton can carry over the 31.3% strikeout rate against right-handed batters through his first three starts, that would go a long way in negating the Astros’ power.
David Price (4/16 vs. BAL, 4/21 @OAK)
Make sure to check back on Price’s status throughout the weekend. After being unable to feel the fingers in his left hand Wednesday night against New York, Alex Cora has said he’s uncertain if the veteran lefty will be available to go on Monday. I’m sure if Tampa Bay was on the docket, he’d be a lock.
Aaron Sanchez (4/16 vs. KC, 4/21 @NYY)
Big test for Sanchez’s new found trust in his changeup. Designed to rectify some of his struggles with pitching to left-handed bats, Sanchez has used the pitch 27.7% of the time this season – far more than he’s ever utilized a secondary offering. The Yankees are sure to stuff their lineup with LHBs and switch-hitters next Saturday and, I guess, their right-handed filler of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez isn’t awful either.
In the Danger Zone
Jon Lester (4/16 vs. STL, 4/22 @COL)
Really, the only positive to Lester’s 2018 campaign at this point in the season is his groundball rate. At 56.5%, and jumping up above 60% in two of his three starts, that’s a valuable skill for the veteran to harness as he gets into his later years. Well, his later years and a week from this Sunday when he gets to walk into Coors Field. In the most general sense, the worst thing you can do at Coors is allow contact. Lester, though his swinging strike rate and contact rates look normal for his career, has not exactly been racking up the strikeouts lately. He’s also walked an alarming number of opponents. It’s early. Small samples do crazy things. Yet, a 1.57 K/BB ratio is no way to go through life. Not to mention, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Iannetta, Trevor Story, and Nolan Arenado are mashers of left-handed pitching to the highest degree. It’s a very dicey outing, but hey, at least the Cardinals rank last in baseball in batting average versus lefties. That’s something.
Luis Castillo (4/16 @MIL, 4/22 @STL)
Its been a disappointing start to 2018 for the highly-touted Castillo. The two biggest red flags through three games are his absolute struggles with left-handed batters, as told by a .727 slugging percentage in 37 plate appearances, and his inability to strike batters out when pitching from the stretch. In terms of the latter issue, while nowhere near as bad as his current 12.0% strikeout rate with men on base, Castillo did see his 31.3% strikeout rate with no one on fall to just 19.8% in the same situations, in a larger sample, last season. That’s worrisome. In regards to the problems with LHBs? He might be catching a break next week. Milwaukee’s lefties have been great so far this season hitting right-handed pitching (credit Eric Thames), but they could be down Christian Yelich. As for St. Louis, not only do they lack left-handed depth – but the left-handers they do roster have combined to hit only .190 with a .261 wOBA against RHPs. For the sake of his owners, I hope that’s enough to turn things around.
Streamers Under 50%
Mike Foltynewicz (4/16 vs. PHI, 4/21 vs. NYM)
Marco Estrada (4/17 vs. KC, 4/22 @NYY)
It’s difficult to know what to make of Foltynewicz’s first three starts of the season. On one hand, the surface numbers are fantastic. A 2.93 ERA, 3.57 FIP, and 10.57 K/9 is really about all even the most optimistic Folty-lover could have dreamed of entering 2018. On the other hand, the strikeouts, arguably the most crucial element to the right-hander’s success, have come in a bit of an unconventional way. Nothing has changed significantly in Foltynewicz’s arsenal to generate more swings and misses. In fact, his slider, the pitch that garnered the highest percentage of his swings and misses in 2017, is actually underachieving in direct comparison to last year. Plus, his overall swinging strike rate and chase rate are sitting at what would be career-lows. Now, I’m not suggesting that called strikes are an unstable path to strikeouts, but I am saying they’ve never worked for him at this level in the past. I wouldn’t expect this level of strikeout volume to continue much longer, yet, as it stands, you could do far worse for two starts in Week 3. Philadelphia does have the highest strikeout rate among National League teams. That should be enough to expect double-digit output for your fantasy squad.
Streamers Under 25%
Yonny Chirinos (4/17 vs. TEX, 4/22 vs. MIN)
Trevor Williams (4/17 vs. COL, 4/22 @PHI)
Nick Pivetta (4/17 @ATL, 4/22 vs. PIT
Junior Guerra (4/17 vs. CIN, 4/22 vs. MIA)
Zack Wheeler (4/17 vs. WSH, 4/22 @ATL)
Here’s the thing with Chirinos: he’s not technically a starter and he’s not technically scheduled to start these two games. However, someone is going to have to pitch for Tampa Bay and, if you go by recent success and who lines up to be available, I would be shocked if its not the rookie going on Tuesday. Still, his limitations have to be factored in on top of the uncertainty. Yes, he’s now thrown 14.1 scoreless innings to begin his career, but he’s only thrown 185 pitches to do it – maxing out at 75 in his last start against the White Sox. Even with his impressive control, he’s walked only two batters so far and showed exemplary command throughout the minors, Chirinos would be hard pressed to continue throwing just 12.9 pitches per inning. I mean, consider Ivan Nova maintained the lowest qualified rate last season at 14.3. Yet, when it’s all on the table, he’s a pitcher who never gives up a free base and keeps the ball on the ground. Those are two trademarks of a high floor pitcher – my favorite kind of two-start option when streaming. I’m taking the chance in deeper formats, even if it’s the ultimate trust fall exercise.
Not Unless You’re Desperate
Brandon McCarthy
Andrew Cashner
James Shields
German Marquez
Jordan Zimmermann
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Caleb Smith
Brent Suter
Steven Brault
Luis Perdomo
Adam Wainwright
Martin Perez
Import your team to My Playbook for instant Waiver Wire advice
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | TuneIn | Google Play
Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.
