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The Primer: Week 14 Edition (Fantasy Football)

The Primer: Week 14 Edition (Fantasy Football)

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

Total: 41.5
Line: WAS by 1.5

QBs
Eli Manning:
After nearly getting benched at halftime (Kyle Lauletta had his helmet on at the start of the third quarter), Manning’s job was somehow saved when Beckham threw a touchdown, making the offense look better. After coming out hot after the bye week, he’s cooled down a bit over the last two weeks and will now face a Redskins team who’s been struggling against the pass. They’ve allowed at least 273 passing yards to eight of the last nine quarterbacks they’ve played, including five 300-yard performances. While in New York a few weeks back (Week 8), Manning threw for 316 yards and a touchdown, but also had two interceptions in that game. They’ve allowed nine passing touchdowns in the five games since but have really started to struggle against the run in that time, too. Manning is too much of a streaky quarterback to trust during the fantasy playoffs, especially when he’s trending in the wrong direction. Look for the Giants to play it conservatively on the ground against the Redskins this week. The last time he threw for more than one touchdown against them was back in 2015, making him just a low-end QB2.

Mark Sanchez: We have Sanchez back in the NFL, so that’s fun. He didn’t look all that good against the Eagles last week, though coming in on short notice is always a tough thing to do, especially when it’s on the road in Philadelphia. He’ll be back at home for this game but it’s not likely to go much better. The Giants have been a matchup to avoid for quarterbacks this year, as they’ve not allowed a top-15 quarterback since way back in Week 7. Keep in mind they played against Carson Wentz and Jameis Winston in that time. They don’t have a great pass-rush, but when it comes down to throwing touchdowns, opponents just aren’t getting it done, as they’ve held them to a 3.84 percent touchdown rate, which ranks as third-best in the league. Let’s be honest, you aren’t trusting Sanchez with your playoff hopes and dreams, and he’s not a DFS play, either.

RBs
Saquon Barkley:
He now has three 100-yard rushing games in a row despite playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. When watching him play, there’s almost always a few plays per game where you just say, “wow, that’s not supposed to be possible.” After tagging the untouchable Bears defense for 125 yards, he’ll go against a Redskins defense that’s suddenly struggling to stop the run. After allowing just 417 yards on 111 carries (3.76 yards per carry) over the first seven games, they’ve allowed 588 yards on 120 carries (4.90 yards per carry) over the last five games. On top of that, they’ve allowed 36 receptions for 339 yards and two touchdowns through the air to running backs over the last six weeks, where Barkley gets plenty of use. In the first meeting between the two, he totaled just 38 yards on 13 carries, but did haul in 10 passes for 73 yards. Keep in mind that the Redskins held Ezekiel Elliott to just 33 yards on 15 carries in their first game, but then allowed him 121 yards on 26 carries the second time they played. Barkley should continue to be trotted out as an elite RB1 who’s gotten you 100-plus total yards in 11-of-12 games, and the one he didn’t, he totaled 94 yards and a touchdown.

Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: Outside of his 90-yard touchdown run, Peterson was a non-factor in last week’s game. But hey, it still counts, right? With Thompson back in the fold, Peterson played just 16 snaps, while Thompson was on the field for 29 plays. Keep in mind they ran just 45 plays on offense last week, so volume was going to be an issue. Peterson will get another shot at the Giants defense he pounded for 156 total yards and two touchdowns back in Week 8. It’s an ongoing thing in this article, but the loss of Damon Harrison has turned the Giants run-defense into mush. After allowing just one team of running backs to total more than 95 yards in the first seven weeks (traded Harrison after that), they’ve now allowed at least 114 yards and a touchdown to every team. They’ve allowed 4.92 yards per carry in that span and every team has totaled at least 21 carries. Peterson should be able to get back to the 15-carry mark this week and should be played as an RB2. Gamescript is always a concern for him, especially with Thompson back, but he is a home-favorite, so the odds are on his side. As for Thompson, the Redskins should take a page out of the Bears book and use him like Tarik Cohen, though I’m not sure Sanchez is competent enough to continually get him the ball. Cohen continually abused Landon Collins in coverage, so there’s a clear blueprint for success, but it’s hard to say Thompson should be played as more than a low-end RB3/high-end RB4 with Sanchez controlling the offense.

WRs
Odell Beckham:
He’ll go back to meet his old buddy Josh Norman this week, who he torched for 8/136/0 back in Week 8. While Norman wasn’t in coverage on all his receptions, he’s the one charged with slowing down Beckham. He hasn’t topped 85 yards since that matchup but does have four receiving touchdowns and one passing touchdown over the last four games. While Norman shut-down Alshon Jeffery last week, it was Amari Cooper going for 8/180/2 the prior week and DeAndre Hopkins for 5/56/1 the week before that. Norman isn’t a stud lockdown cornerback anymore and the stats back that up, as he’s allowed a 70.7 percent catch-rate, 13.6 yards per reception, and a touchdown every 11.6 targets in coverage. Beckham should be played as a WR1 with little hesitation.

Sterling Shepard: He’s worth monitoring this week, as he suffered a soft-tissue rib injury against the Bears and looked to be in pain after trying to return to the game. When healthy in Week 8 against the Redskins, Shepard posted just four catches for 34 yards on eight targets, though slot cornerback Fabien Moreau has really struggled as of late. He’s allowed more than 100 yards in his coverage in two of the last four games after not allowing more than 61 yards in his coverage the first eight games. But with Shepard’s recent struggles (hasn’t topped 37 yards in 6-of-7 games) and soft-tissue injury, he’s just a low-end WR4 even if he does suit-up for this game.

Josh Doctson: So much for having Colt McCoy under center and helping Doctson’s production. As sad as that sounds, McCoy was the best thing for him. With Sanchez under center, it’s unlikely to provide Doctson with enough boost to even be considered, especially when the Giants haven’t allowed a wide receiver more than 12 PPR points in four of their last five games. Their top cornerback Janoris Jenkins has played much better as of late and that’s who Doctson will see most of the day. He’s not worth playing as anything more than a WR6 who’s likely back in the 5-6 target range in a below-average matchup.

TEs
Rhett Ellison:
The Giants have little reason to bring Evan Engram back from his hamstring injury, as they have nothing to play for and Ellison is doing… well, the same thing Engram was.

Tgts Rec Yds TD
Evan Engram 33 23 257 2
Rhett Ellison 32 23 254 1

 

Crazy, right? Against the Redskins, it doesn’t matter all that much, as they’re one of the better teams at defending tight ends. While Zach Ertz was able to rack up 9/83/0 against them last week, he was the first one who was able to total more than five catches or 48 yards against them. In the first meeting, Engram was held to five catches for 25 yards on nine targets, though he did score a touchdown to salvage his fantasy day. Ellison’s not going to rack up yardage and you shouldn’t be relying on a touchdown from him in this matchup, so he’s not a recommended streamer. Update: It appears as if Engram is going to play in this game after returning to a full practice. As for the matchup, it’s obviously not a great one. Engram is slightly more attractive than Ellison, but when looking at the numbers above, it’s not by much. 

Jordan Reed: So, he loses Alex Smith, who he started to develop a little bit of chemistry with. Then he gets McCoy and catches 13 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown in two games. McCoy then gets hurt, he gets Sanchez and proceeds to total just four catches for 21 yards. To be fair, it was a tough matchup with the Eagles who’ve been dominant against tight ends all year. The Giants haven’t, but they did hold Reed to 7/38/0 on 12 targets in their first meeting. Oddly enough, nine tight ends have reached at least 38 yards against the Giants. Combing through their schedule, they’ve done a really good job with some really good tight ends, as they’ve played Zach Ertz twice, George Kittle, O.J. Howard, Reed, Austin Hooper, and Trey Burton, yet have allowed just the 17th-most fantasy points. That combined with Sanchez under center makes Reed more of a streaming option than a locked-in TE1, though he’s likely to get more targets than most streaming options.

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 48.0
Line: LAC by 14.0

QBs
Jeff Driskel:
It was a disappointing fantasy performance for Driskel last week, but not because of his passing. We were expecting him to run a lot more than he did, as he’d totaled 44 yards and two rushing touchdowns while in relief of Andy Dalton in two previous games. He will be without A.J. Green against one of the hottest defenses in the league, as the Chargers haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer since way back in Week 3 and have held opposing quarterbacks to less than 20 fantasy points in each of the last nine games. In fact, the only quarterback to score more than 17 fantasy points was Russell Wilson, who rushed for 41 yards to make it past the mark. They’ve allowed just 10 touchdown passes in their last nine games and they’re likely going to have fun with their pass-rush against a Bengals offensive line that’s allowed 10 sacks over the last four weeks. Driskel could take off running a bit more this week and produce QB2 numbers, but after what we say last week, you don’t want to depend on it. He’s just a QB3 this week.

Philip Rivers: Despite missing Melvin Gordon, Rivers continued to play MVP-caliber football against a Steelers defense that had been playing very well. He’s now totaled at least 17 fantasy points in 10-of-12 games this year and will go into a matchup with the Bengals, who have allowed the most elite performances to quarterbacks this year. Those qualify as 25-point performances and they’ve allowed five of them. Since the start of Week 4, the Bengals secondary has allowed 8.8 yards per attempt to quarterbacks, a rather historic number considering the Bucs have allowed 8.5 yards per attempt on the season. Rivers himself has averaged a career-high 9.0 yards per attempt and has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season. Bengals opponents average 69.8 plays per game while Rivers has done his damage on just 59.2 plays per game this year. With no Gordon, we could see Rivers carry the team against the Bengals, giving him a high-end QB1 ceiling and a low-end QB1 floor. He’s a great start this week.

RBs
Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard:
In a brutal matchup with the Broncos, Mixon was able to hold his own while totaling 82 yards on 12 carries, though he was once again underutilized in the passing-game as he saw just two targets. The matchup against the Chargers is much better since they lost defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as running backs have a 51.7 percent success rate with him off the field compared to a 44.1 percent success rate with him. They’ve allowed six running back touchdowns over the last three weeks, but it’s not a matchup to expect some sort of explosion from Mixon, as they’ve still allowed just one 100-yard rusher all season long. Another great way to move the ball down the field against the Chargers is utilizing running backs in the passing-game, as they’ve allowed 75 receptions (6th-most) and 715 yards (4th-most) through 12 games. With no A.J. Green, John Ross matched-up with Casey Hayward, and Tyler Boyd only able to get so many targets, the Bengals likely need to use Mixon in the passing-game. The issue with expecting too much is because the Bengals are suddenly giving Bernard more snaps and touches. He’s totaled 13 touches over the last two weeks while Mixon has 35 of them. Mixon should be considered a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 while Bernard is a last-ditch RB4 option in a game the Bengals are likely to pass quite a bit.

Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson: The way last week’s timeshare worked out, it was exactly as we suspected. Ekeler isn’t the running back the Chargers want to use on first- and second-down, though he’s still going to get work because the Chargers seem apprehensive about playing Jackson over him. But over the last two weeks, Jackson has 120 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries while Ekeler has just 56 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. The Bengals face an average of 27.3 carries per game by opposing running backs over the last seven games which have amounted to 1,013 rushing yards (144.7 per game) and 11 touchdowns. If we’re projecting this timeshare, it’s likely we see Jackson a bit more after his performance against the Steelers, so it’d be natural to expect 10-14 carries for him while Ekeler should be in the 12-14 range. Not just the rushing production, though, as the Bengals have allowed 1.97 PPR points per target to running backs, which is the most in the league. Because of that, Ekeler should be considered a high-end RB2 while Jackson is in the middling RB3 range.

WRs
John Ross:
There were three games that Ross played without A.J. Green and he totaled at least six targets in each game. He didn’t catch more than three passes in any of the games, but he did score in each of them. The matchup with the Chargers might suit him well if Driskel targets him down the field, as they’ve struggled with deep-passing this year, as highlighted in Casey Hayward‘s 15.7 yards per reception allowed. Trevor Williams was the other starter at the start of the season (who also allowed 15.0 yards per reception) but has been passed on the depth chart by Michael Davis, who’s played a bit better. The Chargers have still allowed just nine top-36 wide receivers on the season, so it’s not as if you want to target the matchup, but Ross is one play away from WR4/5 production.

Tyler Boyd: If you’re trying to find someone on the Bengals roster who’s got 10-plus target potential in this game, look no further than Boyd. He’ll match-up with Desmond King in the slot, who’s played well this year, but has also allowed a high catch-rate (81.4 percent), which can allow Boyd to rack up the receptions. Here are some of the notable slot performances against the Chargers: Cooper Kupp 4/71/1, Tajae Sharpe 7/101/0, Doug Baldwin 4/77/0, Larry Fitzgerald 2/30/1, and Emmanuel Sanders 4/56/0. Oddly enough, Sharpe was the only one who saw more than six targets in those matchups. Boyd is going to see more than those six targets, so feel free to plug-and-play him as a solid WR2 this week.

Keenan Allen: We knew it was coming, but Allen has started his ascension to the top once again over the second half of the season. He’s now totaled 42 receptions, 490 yards, and four touchdowns over the last five games. And now, he gets the Bengals who’ve been destroyed by slot-heavy receivers. They’ve allowed three different receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mohamed Sanu, Adam Humphries) to post at least six catches and 76 yards against them (Smith-Schuster and Sanu hit 111 yards). With Melvin Gordon on the shelf, it clears up some work in the red zone, too. The first week without Gordon in the lineup, Allen saw 19 targets. While I’m not sure Rivers throws the ball more than 35 times this week, Allen should be played as a rock-solid WR1.

Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams: Despite a tough matchup, Mike was able to post 52 yards on just three targets against the Steelers last week. It’s disappointing to see him get just three targets with Gordon out of the lineup, but it should be noted that Tyrell was back in the lineup and passed Mike in snaps right away (50-34). Tyrell saw just one target so he’s not atop the food chain for targets, but it’s a mess for fantasy purposes. They’ll both see a mixture of William Jackson and Dre Kirkpatrick in coverage, who’ve combined to allow just a 50.9 percent catch-rate in coverage but have allowed seven touchdowns on 112 targets. They’re essentially the cornerback duo of Mike and Tyrell, as they don’t allow a lot of volume, but when they do, it’s of high value. If you’re into playing risky options who are going to see five targets or less, these are your guys. If forced to pick one, Mike would be my choice.

TEs
C.J. Uzomah:
While playing with Driskel, Uzomah has now seen 17 of his 73 pass attempts, which comes out to a 23.3 percent target share. That’s big for a wide receiver, let alone a tight end. The problem is that he’s been extremely inefficient with his targets, totaling just 72 yards on 19 targets the last two weeks. He’ll also be going against the Chargers who’ve shut down the tight end position for much of the year, allowing a league-low 5.34 yards per target while no other team has allowed less than 5.86 yards per target. They’ve also allowed just a 58.1 percent completion rate to them as well, so the per-target production is extremely low. Given his targets, it’s hard to say that he’s completely unplayable, especially with Green out, but his ceiling is very limited in this game. He’s just a middling TE2.

Antonio Gates: Outside of his five-catch, 80-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Broncos in Week 11, Gates hasn’t topped 19 yards since back in Week 4. Because of that, it’s going to be extremely hard to recommend him against the Bengals. Many want to attack the matchup because they’ve allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position, but the points allowed were to very top-heavy tight ends (guys near the top of the leaderboard). They’ve allowed six top-12 performances and they were to David Njoku, O.J. Howard, Eric Ebron, Travis Kelce, Vance McDonald, and Jack Doyle. Outside of Doyle, every one of those guys can be mistaken for a big wide receiver who’s very athletic. Gates isn’t that guy and it’s tough recommending him as a streaming option. He may have a better shot at a touchdown due to Gordon’s absence, but he doesn’t offer enough upside to take on that risk.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 44.5
Line: DEN by 5.5

QBs
Case Keenum:
It’s going to be extremely tough to trust Keenum in any matchup after he just totaled 151 yards and one touchdown against the Bengals last week, a team that had allowed a top-13 quarterback in 10-of-11 games coming into that game. Since trading away Demaryius Thomas, Keenum has completed just 58.5 percent of his passes and he’s failed to top 7.2 yards per attempt, so volume means everything to his fantasy totals. The 49ers have faced 31 or less pass attempts in five of their last eight games, as teams don’t need to throw the ball to beat them. Due to the lack of attempts, they’ve held seven of the last nine quarterbacks to 252 yards or less. When you start adding all this up, we’re talking about a low floor volume-wise. The 49ers have allowed multiple touchdown passes in 10-of-12 games, but they’ve also had a brutal schedule this year, facing some of the game’s top quarterbacks. Keenum hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points since Week 6 and even though this is a good matchup, last week was even better. Losing Emmanuel Sanders clearly doesn’t help, either. He’s just a low-end QB2.

Nick Mullens: After playing terribly against the Giants and Bucs, Mullens threw up 414 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks while on the road last week. Granted, there was a lot of garbage time yardage there, but it was enough to get him the starting job against the Broncos. They’ve been a struggling pass-defense for quite some time and will now be without their top cornerback Chris Harris Jr, who suffered a broken fibula last week. Even prior to losing Harris, they’d allowed a 300-plus yard passer in three of their last four games. The 49ers aren’t likely to have much of a run-game with Matt Breida shelved, so Mullens should rack-up some attempts in this game. The Broncos have also faced an average of 36.2 pass attempts per game this year, which ranks as the 6th-most in the league. He’s also expected to get Marquise Goodwin back this week, which now gives him Pettis, Goodwin, and Kittle as solid options in the pass-game. The concern is the Broncos pass-rush, as they average 3.1 sacks per game, while Mullens has been sacked seven times the last two weeks. He’s not someone who you need to grab off the waiver wire and stream, but he also may not be the worst option if you’re running low on options. He should be able to post top-20 numbers in this matchup.

RBs
Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman:
Since the start of Week 7, Lindsay is the No. 6 running back behind only Christian McCaffrey, Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, and Ezekiel Elliott. All of those guys are slated to be first-round picks next year. He’s somehow totaled 346 yards on 44 carries (7.86 yards per carry) with five touchdowns over the last three weeks, essentially stealing the lead-back role rather than splitting time with Freeman, who has been really good in his own right. The 49ers haven’t been a team to target for running backs, as they’ve allowed just three teams of running backs to top 82 rushing yards against them. Most would be shocked to learn that they’ve allowed just one running back (Melvin Gordon) to rush for more than 69 yards against them, and that’s despite eight different running backs totaling at least 15 carries. They have, however, allowed multiple touchdowns to three different running backs this year. With the way Lindsay is playing, you’re putting him into lineups, but this game isn’t likely to net his third-straight 100-yard performance on the ground. He should be considered a high-end RB2 who’s in the zone right now. Freeman has garnered 18 carries over the last two weeks, so he hasn’t just gone away, but the Broncos need to tally 30-plus rushing attempts for him to hit double-digits. Just two teams have totaled more than 24 rushing attempts against the 49ers so he’s nothing more than a touchdown-dependent RB4.

Jeffrey Wilson: The 49ers ruled out Matt Breida early in the week, so now we have to prepare to be let-down once again with a 49ers running back. It was Jerick McKinnon, then it was Breida, then it was Alfred Morris, then it was Raheem Mostert, and now we’re onto Wilson. The risk is there, but it’s really nice knowing that he’s the pass-catcher this week because they aren’t getting anything done on the ground against the Broncos. They’ve allowed just 3.55 yards per carry over the last six weeks and haven’t allowed a single rushing touchdown in those games, either. What makes it more impressive is who they’ve played during that stretch. The running back list was impressive: Joe Mixon, James Conner, Melvin Gordon, Lamar Miller, Kareem Hunt, and David Johnson. Because of that, Morris is not even close to any radar. Wilson, however, he saw a team-high nine targets last week, catching eight of them for 73 yards. He also fumbled in the game, but the 49ers absolutely need him to contribute this week. Over the last three weeks, the Broncos have allowed 23 receptions for 226 yards to running backs, which is where Wilson would need to get it done. With Goodwin coming back to the team, some of the running back targets will dissipate, but Wilson should see 12-15 touches in this game, making him a decent RB3-play who lacks some upside.

WRs
Emmanuel Sanders:
If you’ve somehow missed it, Sanders is out for the year with a torn Achilles that he suffered in practice. If you’re looking for his replacement on the Broncos roster, it’s probably best to look elsewhere, as his replacement will be DaeSean Hamilton in the slot. While Hamilton may have a promising future, he’s played just under 200 snaps this year and has five receptions. This offense doesn’t carry a whole lot of potential, so it’s just not worth the risk.

Courtland Sutton: He did it, you guys. Sutton finally registered more than three catches in a game last week, and even found the end zone for the first time since Week 7. This week is the best matchup he’s had since Demaryius Thomas left, as he’ll match-up with Ahkello Witherspoon on over half his snaps. Witherspoon was benched earlier in the year for poor play but is back on the field because the 49ers really have no one else. He’s allowed five touchdowns on 62 targets in-coverage this year and has graded as PFF’s No. 113 cornerback… of the 113 of them graded. If the Broncos are wise, they’d keep Sutton at LWR (away from Richard Sherman) and target him more than the typical 4-6 times they do, though he did have a career-high seven targets last week. With Sanders out for the year, we’re likely to see Sutton targeted eight-plus times in this game. He should be considered a high-end WR3 who comes with touchdown upside.

Marquise Goodwin: After being away from the team for a few weeks, Goodwin has rejoined the team and will play this week. The last time he was on the field with Mullens, he totaled four catches for 69 yards on five targets in a tough matchup against the Giants. The Broncos aren’t a tough matchup anymore, as they have Bradley Roby and Isaac Yiadom starting on the perimeter, a duo that’s allowed seven touchdowns on 89 targets in coverage and 15.5 yards per receptions in their coverage. Neither cornerback has elite speed to keep up with Goodwin down the field and the Broncos have allowed 49 pass-plays of 20-plus yards, which ranks as the third-most in the league. Goodwin is far from a sure thing, but this matchup suits him well. He should be in the high-upside WR4 conversation this week.

Dante Pettis: It appears we have a connection between Pettis and Mullens, as the two have combined for 9/206/3 over the last two weeks on just 14 targets. I suppose I shouldn’t say “just” 14 targets, but that’s a lot of production on those targets. The matchup this week against the Broncos isn’t a bad one, either, as he’d see a mixture of Bradley Roby and Isaac Yiadom, who’ve combined to allow a 115.0 QB Rating in their coverage. The loss of Chris Harris Jr. in the slot will also hurt them, as it’s going to put stress on the rest of the defense. There needs to be a disclaimer here that if Pierre Garcon were to return, it would hurt Pettis more than anyone, but it’s hard to see them take Pettis off the field with the way he’s playing. Consider him a decent WR4 play this week and one who should at least present a solid floor considering the lack of run-game from the 49ers.

TEs
Matt LaCosse:
It was probably a good thing to avoid a third-string tight end with Case Keenum throwing him the ball last week, eh? The odd part is that he’d seen four targets in three of the last six games coming into that game as a backup but saw just one target as the starter. The 49ers haven’t been a team to target with tight ends, as they’ve allowed just 3.8 receptions and 43.0 yards per game to them. While LaCosse may make up 90 percent of the production at tight end for the Broncos, those totals don’t suggest he’d be a good play, especially when the Broncos aren’t a pass-heavy team. If starting LaCosse, you’re looking for a touchdown and knowing that Keenum averages just 1.17 touchdowns per game, you may want to go a different route. Update: With Sanders’ injury, it should create more opportunities for LaCosse, though you’d ideally see it before trusting him. 

George Kittle: It’s now been four games into the Mullens experiment and in those games Kittle has totaled 36 targets, 25 receptions, 309 yards, and a touchdown. That’s pretty dang solid for a position with very little reliability. Now playing against the Broncos, who’ve allowed four top-five performances? On top of their history of allowing big games to tight ends, the loss of Chris Harris Jr. has forced them to move safety Justin Simmons down to play the slot and have Will Parks fill in at safety. The moving pieces could create confusion and benefit Kittle, though he didn’t even necessarily need the help. The Broncos have already allowed 8.43 yards per target and five touchdowns on the year to tight ends. Kittle should be a lock for six-plus targets in a plus-matchup. He’s a high-end TE1 this week (and almost every other week).

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Total: 43.0
Line: DAL by 3.5

QBs
Carson Wentz:
After a couple of no-so-great games, Wentz popped back onto the QB1 radar last week with a 306-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Redskins. It’ll be a bit tougher matchup this weekend against the Cowboys, though he’s already shown he can beat them through the air because he threw for a season-high 360 yards and two touchdowns against them back in Week 10. It seems to be an outlier in performances against them, though, as they’ve allowed just 208.8 passing yards per game in their last six non-Eagles games, including a 127-yard, one-touchdown game to Drew Brees last week. They’ve still yet to allow an opponent more than two passing touchdowns, which is why the best fantasy finish against them was QB7 which was to Marcus Mariota when he rushed for 32 yards and a touchdown. In a divisional game that has an over/under of just 43 points, it’s tough to say Wentz is anything more than a high-end QB2 in this matchup on the road where the Cowboys have allowed just 17.5 points per game.

Dak Prescott: It’s been a bit of a rollercoaster with Prescott over the last few months, as he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in four of his last nine games, but he’s yet to throw multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games. He was without his starting left tackle Tyron Smith last week, so to see him walk away from that game with 248 yards and a touchdown, you should feel pretty good. Something that’s helping his fantasy floor, however, is his rushing totals, as he’s scored five rushing touchdowns over the last seven games despite topping 22 rushing yards just twice in that span. The last matchup against the Eagles netted 270 yards and one passing touchdown, but he also rushed for nine yards and a touchdown, giving him his third-best fantasy finish on the year (21.7 points). The Eagles secondary has obviously been a concern with all the injuries, but it appears that liability has leaked down into their run-defense. Maybe they’re forced to keep safeties out of the box due to lackluster cornerback play, but they’ve allowed over 100 yards on the ground four straight games after allowing just one in their first eight games. Prescott is in the high-end QB2 conversation and capable of putting up top-10 numbers against this defense, but this is likely a game where they try to ride Elliott and the run-game to victory. Before I go, look at Prescott’s numbers with and without Cooper.

Games Comp % Yds/gm YPA TD/gm INT/gm FPts/gm
With Cooper 5 72.8% 251.6 7.96 1.20 0.20 18.6
Without Cooper 7 62.1% 202.4 6.88 1.14 0.57 16.0

 

RBs
Josh Adams, Corey Clement, and Darren Sproles:
Just when we were ready to trust Adams, Sproles returns to the lineup and adds to the level of uncertainty. We still saw Adams rack-up 41 snaps and 20 touches, but it’s surely going to hurt his projection in games they fall behind. While they’re underdogs in this game, it’s expected to remain close. The issue is that the Cowboys have been a dominant run-defense as of late, allowing just 247 yards and one touchdown over the last four weeks (61.8 per game) without a single team eclipsing 68 yards. On the entire year, there’s been no team who’s averaged more than 4.86 yards per carry, which is extremely hard to do, and it shows their consistency. Six of the last eight teams of running backs have failed to top 20.0 PPR points against them, too. Knowing that this is a timeshare, that’s a real problem. On top of that, the Cowboys’ opponents average just 60.4 plays per game, which has led to an average of 19.3 carries per game. When they played back in Week 10, the Eagles running backs combined for just 68 yards on 14 carries. Adams should be looked at as a high-end RB3 who should get goal-line carries, but he’s in trouble if the Cowboys jump out to a lead. Clement looked phenomenal last week but so did Sproles and they’re likely going to cancel each other out. Both are nothing more than RB4 options in PPR formats this week until we see a clear trend develop.

Ezekiel Elliott: He was just the second running back who totaled more than 42 rushing yards against the Eagles in Week 10 (he finished with 151 yards on 19 carries), but since that time, they’ve allowed at least 100 yards to every team they’ve played, including the Redskins last week, though it required a 90-yard run by Adrian Peterson. The Eagles have also allowed eight total touchdowns to running backs over the last four games (5 rushing, 3 receiving) after allowing just two total touchdowns over their first eight games. It’s clear that something is going on with them, but even if they’re able to turn their run-defense around, Elliott is heavily involved in the passing-game (his 68 targets rank seventh among running backs). He’s an elite RB1 whose matchup isn’t nearly as bad as it used to be, as the problems in the secondary have leaked into the run-defense.

WRs
Alshon Jeffery:
He’s now failed to reach 50 yards in each of his last five games, which includes a matchup against the Cowboys in Week 10 when he totaled just four catches for 48 yards on eight targets. As a team, the Cowboys have allowed just three top-15 receivers all year and just eight top-30 receivers. Through 12 games, that’s somewhat ridiculous. The average top-24 performance last season was 13.6 PPR points, a number that just six receivers have hit, the lowest in the NFL. Five of those six wide receivers scored a touchdown, while DeAndre Hopkins was the only one who didn’t, but he saw 13 targets that netted 9/151/0. It’s clear that Jeffery isn’t the No. 1 option in the offense anymore, and though I believe he’ll bounce-back at some point, this matchup isn’t a good one to do so. He’s got the looks of a low-end WR3 against the Cowboys.

Golden Tate: He’s not an every-down player with the Eagles, as he was on the field for just 36-of-75 snaps, but he’s getting the targets when on the field. Since coming to the Eagles, he’s seen a target every 4.8 snaps on the field, while Jeffery is at one every 11.5 snaps, and Nelson Agholor is one every 11.7 snaps. As you can see, Tate is targeted when on the field. This will be Tate’s third game against the Cowboys this year, and it’s been a mixed-bag to this point. In the first meeting (while with the Lions) he totaled 8/132/2 but finished with just 2/19/0 against them the second time (with the Eagles). Last week was the first one where it looked like Wentz was in-sync with him, so you should expect better results in this game. The fact that the Cowboys have allowed just eight top-30 receivers all season is worrisome, but it helps that Tate matches up with Anthony Brown, who’s been their biggest liability in coverage. Tate should be on the radar as a middling WR3 this week who’s clearly becoming a go-to target for Wentz.

Amari Cooper: The Eagles matched-up with Cooper just four weeks ago when he tallied six catches for 75 yards, but that was before they lost starter Ronald Darby for the season. They’re now trotting Rasul Douglas, Sidney Jones, and Cre’Von LeBlanc out there as their starters, a trio that’s allowed 52-of-78 passing for 619 yards and three touchdowns in their coverage. We’ve started to see Cooper and Prescott get into more of a rhythm the more they play together, as he’s now caught 16 of his last 17 targets for 255 yards and two touchdowns. Cooper needs to be played as a high-end WR2 who the Eagles have to figure out how to stop, while trying to contain Elliott at the same time.

Michael Gallup: It was good to see Gallup get back on track last week when he caught 5-of-7 targets for 76 yards against the Saints, though he had a much better matchup than Cooper. This week could be interesting for Gallup because if the Eagles decide to handle Cooper the way they handled Michael Thomas a few weeks ago, Gallup would be the primary beneficiary out on an island against one of Sidney Jones or Rasul Douglas. He’s probably a better DFS play than season-long because we know his fantasy floor is one catch for 10 yards (happened three weeks ago). He totaled two catches for 34 yards the last time they played the Eagles, but that was a bit different of a scenario with Ronald Darby active for the last time. Gallup should be considered a solid upside WR4/5 option this week who would benefit if the Eagles sell-out to stop Cooper.

TEs
Zach Ertz:
Not only have the Cowboys struggled with tight ends this year, but they’ve already shown their vulnerability to Ertz who totaled a season-high 14 receptions for 145 yards and two touchdowns against them in Week 10. Even outside of Ertz, they’ve allowed five other tight ends to finish as top-12 options against them, as the Cowboys have allowed a 75 percent catch-rate and 7.9 yards per target to them. With the net result of that game (win), the Cowboys are unlikely to change their approach to defending Ertz, though they’ll likely try to limit him a bit more. Whatever they do, it likely won’t matter, as Ertz has been flat-out dominant this year. He’s in your lineup as an elite TE1 who likely lives up to his price in DFS as well.

Blake Jarwin: Despite Dalton Schultz playing more snaps, it’s Jarwin who’s running the most routes for the Cowboys with Geoff Swaim out of the lineup. He’s still seen just three targets over the last two weeks and none of them deserve consideration against the Eagles who have shut down tight ends all season. They’ve allowed just 7.1 yards per target and two touchdowns through 12 games, which has included 68 targets. That’s one touchdown every 34.0 targets, while you’re talking about a timeshare of tight ends who might see two targets. You’re not streaming a Cowboys tight end against the Eagles.

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