New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Total: 47.5
Line: NE by 8.0

QBs
Tom Brady: After allowing just two passing touchdowns over the first three weeks, the Dolphins defense has allowed 20 of them over the last nine games, including at least two in seven of them. Brady was one of them back in Week 4 when he threw for 274 yards and three touchdowns, though it’s a different offense than the one they fielded back then. Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, and Cordarrelle Patterson were the top three receivers on the field at that point. Brady went into Miami at this exact time (Week 14) last year and tallied just 233 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions in the loss to the Dolphins. He’s been missing his usual upside this year, too, as he’s currently the No. 16 quarterback in points per game. The Dolphins have allowed at least 7.0 yards per attempt in 10 of the last 11 games, so he should present a solid floor, but the Dolphins have also been destroyed against the run this season, which is the reason just two quarterbacks have thrown more than 33 pass attempts against them over the last eight games. Knowing the Dolphins have intercepted 19 passes (2nd-most in NFL), the Patriots are likely to just go on the road in their divisional game and come out with a boring win, making Brady just a high-end QB2 who does possess a decent floor. Sam Darnold was the only quarterback since Week 5 who’s finished outside the top-15 quarterbacks against them.

Ryan Tannehill: Can you believe Tannehill has thrown 13 touchdowns on just 178 attempts this year? That’s a 7.3 percent touchdown-rate. Tom Brady has hit that mark twice in his career. This is not me comparing the two, but rather showing how ridiculous the league has become in its passing ways. He now goes into a matchup with the Patriots whose opponents have thrown at least 41 times in six of the last eight games. The only one to have massive success against them in that time was Patrick Mahomes (352/4), though Mitch Trubisky put together a great fantasy day with 81 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Tannehill isn’t running the ball very much since suffering his shoulder injury which really hurts his upside, even in a matchup where he’s going to drop back 40-plus times. In the first meeting with the Patriots he totaled just 100 yards on 20 attempts, though that was seemingly the game he initially hurt his shoulder. While Tannehill’s touchdown-rate looks appealing, the Patriots have allowed a miniscule 3.2 percent touchdown-rate in their last six games. In a game where he’s an eight-point underdog and projected for just under 20 points, Tannehill should be considered just a low-end QB2.

RBs
Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead: With all three backs healthy, the snap counts looked like this in Week 13: White 33, Michel 30, Burkhead 17. It’s kind of what should have been expected, but it’s good news for Michel owners, as he was the clear-cut 1-2 down back racking up 17 carries while Burkhead and White combined for 13 of them. The Vikings matchup was terrible and it’s why you saw James Develin going in for two touchdowns, but the Dolphins matchup is much more appealing. Michel racked up 25 carries in their first meeting with the Dolphins, totaling 112 yards and a touchdown. The Dolphins have allowed at least 100 yards on the ground to 8-of-12 teams this year, including 148 or more yards on four separate occasions. They’ve allowed a massive 5.07 yards per carry since the start of Week 4, which is after they lost defensive lineman William Hayes. Michel has the looks of a solid low-end RB1, while White shouldn’t need to be targeted a whole lot like he was in the first game. Because of that, White is just a high-end RB3 who does come with more upside than most in his range, but also comes with more touch-risk. Burkhead totaled nine touches in his first game back, so he’s definitely on the RB4 radar, as it would surprise no one if he stole some goal-line carries at any moment. I’d rather play him over some other boring option with a very limited ceiling.

Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: After playing exactly 29 snaps over the previous four games, Gore took a backseat to Drake in Week 13, as he tallied just 20 snaps to Drake’s 30 snaps. It was odd because the Bills are a team who struggles against the run, which is solely where Gore is used. With Tannehill playing better, it should open some things underneath for the backs against the Patriots. In their Week 4 meeting, Gore and Drake combined for just 76 total yards on 18 touches, though Gore scored his only touchdown of the season in that game (oddly a receiving one). The Patriots haven’t allowed a running back more than 84 yards on the ground since way back in Week 3, though it helps that they face an average of just 19.9 running back carries per game, which is near the bottom of the league. Gore is clearly not someone you should be playing this week, as he’s just a low-upside RB4 who’s likely to wind- up with 10-12 carries for 40-50 yards. He’s still yet to score a rushing touchdown. As for Drake, he’s the wildcard he’s been all year, as he’s totaled more than 10 touches in just four of the last 10 games. He’s scored six touchdowns in the last six games, which is what’s keeping hope alive. He’s an upside RB3 in this game, but one who can cost you big-time if Adam Gase decides to pull some shenanigans.

WRs
Josh Gordon: With all the pieces coming back to the Patriots offense, we’ve seen Gordon’s snaps dip over the last two weeks. After playing 80-95 percent of the snaps from Week 6 through Week 10, Gordon played 75.7 percent of the snaps in Week 12 and then 64.9 percent of the snaps in Week 13. He still wound-up leading the team with 58 yards and a touchdown, but maybe this has to do with his conditioning, as it’s his first full season since back in 2013? Hard to say, but he’ll certainly see a lot of Xavien Howard this week, who now has 11 interceptions in his last 17 games. He allowed two touchdowns in his coverage the last time they played the Patriots, though Gordon wasn’t the one he covered. On 57 targets in coverage, Howard has allowed just 29 receptions for 469 yards and four touchdowns, while intercepting seven passes. He’s not unbeatable, as evidenced by his 16.2 yards per reception and touchdown every 14.3 targets, but he’s also not a plus-matchup you need to attack. Gordon is in the high-end WR3 territory with his lowered snap counts, but it’s possible Howard doesn’t shadow him because of this. Any wide receiver outside the top-20 is going to come with some level of risk, but not many come with Gordon’s weekly upside. Update: Howard is not expected to play in this game, upgrading Gordon’s matchup to WR2 status.

Julian Edelman: With Rob Gronkowski back on the field, we’re seeing the old Edelman where he’s not consistently getting to 10-plus targets like he did with Gronkowski out. He’s still totaled 13 targets, so it’s not as if he’s been forgotten, but his three catches for 23 yards against the Vikings puts his floor on display. The Dolphins have Bobby McCain covering the slot since moving Minkah Fitzpatrick out to the perimeter, and it hasn’t worked all that well. McCain has allowed 18-of-24 passing for 237 yards and a touchdown in the slot (9.9 yards per target), while Fitzpatrick allowed just 3.96 yards per target when he was covering the slot. You must wonder if they rotate them back, but it’s now been four weeks, so it appears unlikely. Unless we hear that McCain is moved back to the perimeter, Edelman should be considered a solid low-end WR2 in a plus-matchup.

DeVante Parker: Just when everyone gives up on Parker, he goes out and snags his first touchdown of the year. He’s played much better with Tannehill over his career, but he shouldn’t be a preferred play in Stephon Gilmore‘s coverage this week. The Bills didn’t use Tre’Davious White in shadow coverage last week, but the Patriots will surely have the bigger Gilmore on Parker and the speedy McCourty on Stills. Gilmore has allowed four touchdowns in his coverage this year and there’s always the possibility, but we’re playing the most likely scenarios here. Parker has two touchdowns on his last 132 targets, so despite his big frame, he’s not a monster in the red zone or anything. He’s just a WR5 with a limited ceiling.

Kenny Stills: He still hasn’t totaled more than 40 yards since way back in Week 3, but his four-catch, 37-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Bills last week was a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, he’s still not an attractive option for the fantasy playoffs because he’s going to match-up with Jason McCourty, a cornerback who has 4.3-second speed to keep up with Stills. If there’s one positive to take away from last week, it’s that with Danny Amendola out, Stills ran 42.3 percent of his routes from the slot, which would evade McCourty and get him matched-up with Jonathan Jones, who’s struggled in coverage. Stills caught all three of his slot targets for 26 yards and his touchdown, so it’d be wise to keep him there. Because of his higher percentage in the slot, he’s a better play than Parker this week, making him a low-end WR4 who might surprise if Tannehill racks up the attempts like many teams have against the Patriots as of late. If Amendola plays, Stills moves off the radar.

TEs
Rob Gronkowski: He’s now played 142-of-144 snaps over the last two weeks, so it’s fair to say he’s healthy. He’s seen 11 targets in the two games, which is a bit down from his norm, but the fact that he’s on the field is massive. While touchdowns have been an issue for him this year, the Dolphins may be the solution, as they’ve allowed a touchdown every 9.4 targets to tight ends, which ranks as the second most often only to the Raiders. They’ve also allowed the second-most fantasy points per target (2.16 PPR points) to tight ends but have only faced four of them who’ve seen more than four targets. Gronkowski did play them back in Week 4 where he totaled four catches for 44 yards on seven targets, but the Dolphins defense has gotten worse since that time. Gronkowski should be played as a high-end TE1 who should be considered a great DFS play in tournaments.

Mike Gesicki: The Dolphins have four different tight ends who’ve seen two targets over the last three games. None of them have seen more than two targets and none of them have topped 30 yards. Unfortunately, Gesicki has averaged just 0.26 yards per route run, so he’s not even worth considering in a plus-matchup against the Patriots who’ve allowed seven top-12 performances to tight ends. It was Nick O’Leary who led the team in targets last week, but there’s hardly been a consistent among the Dolphins tight ends. They’ve all combined for just 44 targets this season, or less than four per game.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 57.0
Line: NO by 8.0

QBs
Drew Brees: Coming off his worst game of the year, Brees gets rewarded with possibly his easiest matchup of the year. The Bucs have quietly gotten better in their secondary, as they haven’t allowed more than two passing touchdowns since way back in Week 6. A lot of it comes down to opponents running all over them and limiting their pass attempts, though. Just one quarterback (Cam Newton last week) has totaled more than 34 pass attempts against them since Week 6, and Newton was also the first one to throw for more than 280 yards in that time. The injuries they’ve suffered on defense have most affected the run-game most, though it’s important to note Brees tagged them for 439 yards and three touchdowns back at home in Week 1. The trips to Tampa Bay haven’t been kind the last two years, as he’s totaled just 245/1 and 257/0 in those games. This is a worse version of the Bucs defense in those years, but it’s still worth noting in a divisional road game. The Bucs have still allowed 9-of-12 quarterbacks to finish as the QB13 or better with the only exceptions being Nick Foles, Alex Smith, and Nick Mullens. You may not get the massive ceiling you did back in Week 1, but he should provide a QB1 floor. He should be considered a low-risk QB1 for this game, but don’t be shocked if the run-game goes bananas. Update: They’re expecting a lot of rain in Tampa Bay on Sunday. While we don’t know if that’s certainly the case until Sunday morning, Brees may come with a bit more risk if that’s the case. 

Jameis Winston: He’s playing extremely well since taking back the starting job, but the matchup against the Saints isn’t as great as some think. Their opponents average just 59.8 plays per game (second-fewest) and have held the opposing quarterback to under 250 yards with one or less touchdowns in three of their last four games, which included Andy Dalton, Carson Wentz, and Dak Prescott. But here’s the thing – when you look at the fantasy points allowed to running backs versus the fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (no rushing for quarterbacks), the Saints have allowed 48.1 percent of total production to quarterbacks, which is the highest percentage in the league. By comparison, the Cardinals (last) have allowed just 32.0 percent of production to quarterbacks. It almost highlights a reverse-funnel defense that should be attacked through the air, which is where the Bucs shine. Recent quarterback struggles against the Saints do lower the ceiling for Winston, but the Bucs will have to move the ball via the air, so combining that with the 39.9 pass attempts per game for the Bucs, and you should have a high-floor quarterback. He’s in the middling to low-end QB1 conversation this week.

RBs
Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: We’ve seen two down weeks for the Saints run-game, as they’ve totaled “just” 264 yards without a single touchdown. That comes after five weeks of straight domination where they both could’ve been played as RB1s. The Bucs are a team they should absolutely dominate on the ground, as they’ve allowed 705 yards on 124 carries (5.69 yards per carry) with seven touchdowns on the ground, and then another 252 yards and two touchdowns over the last six games. That amounts to 181.7 PPR points, or 30.3 per game, which essentially allows for two top-12 running backs. That’s their average over the last six games against the Panthers (twice), 49ers, Giants, Redskins, and Bengals run-games. Those teams pale in comparison to the Saints running backs. Kamara should be played as an elite RB1 who should be in the driver’s seat, while Ingram should be played as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 who should clean-up if the Saints jump out to a lead.

Peyton Barber: He’s now totaled at least 16 carries in each of the last three games, but that should end in Week 14. The Saints are the No. 1 run defense in the NFL right now, as they’ve allowed just 632 rushing yards all season. The closest team is the Ravens, who’ve allowed 780 yards on the ground, nearly 150 more yards. Part of the issue is that teams average just 59.8 plays per game against the Saints, and teams are often playing from behind, and that’s why you see an average of just 16.4 running back carries per game, which is the second-lowest mark in the league. They’ve played against Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, Adrian Peterson, and others, yet they’ve held every single running back under 70 yards on the ground. Knowing that Barber isn’t used in the passing-game, he’s nothing more than a low-upside RB3/4 who even if he scores a touchdown, you’re likely looking at a 40-60 yards with a touchdown, not exactly winning you a week.

WRs
Michael Thomas: It’s now been four weeks since we’ve had a 100-yard game for Thomas, including just nine catches for 78 scoreless yards over the last two weeks. We knew the Cowboys would be a tougher matchup, but the Bucs have zero solution for Thomas in their secondary, as displayed in Week 1 (when they were healthy) when he caught 16-of-17 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown against them. Oddly enough, the combination of Ryan Smith, De’Vante Harris, and Javien Elliott (all backups) has been better than Carlton Davis, Brent Grimes, and M.J. Stewart (the starters) this year. The Bucs may get Grimes back, but he missed last week with a knee injury, so it’s tough to say he’d even be 100 percent. Thomas has generated a league-high 86.7 percent catch-rate and the Bucs have allowed a league-high 73.4 percent catch-rate to wide receivers. This amounts to big things if the Saints choose to attack that part of the field. If there’s one Saints receiver who goes bananas, Thomas should be the one. He’s an elite WR1 who is worth his cost of admission in DFS this week.

Tre’Quan Smith: You can’t say you weren’t warned about the risk by playing Smith, as he’s been the exact definition of boom-or-bust. After missing Week 12, he returned to his usual full-time role in the offense but saw one target. Outside of that one game against the Eagles in Week 11, Smith has seen four or less targets in 9-of-10 games. He’s someone who comes with a high ceiling due to who his quarterback is, but he’s far from a weekly play. You want to look at him when they’re playing against a team who gameplans against opposing No. 1 receivers, which isn’t the Bucs, who have allowed some massive games to their opponent’s top receiver. Smith isn’t someone you want to trust with your fantasy playoff life outside of an emergency upside WR4, but knowing he can leave you with a zero, even in this matchup, it’s not worth it in most cases. If you want to play him, do it in DFS.

Keith Kirkwood: He’s consistently playing in-between 25-35 snaps per game and knowing that he’s seen 13 targets over the four weeks, he’s worth consideration. The Bucs had been getting demolished in the slot, but Javien Elliott has taken place of M.J. Stewart, and that’s alleviated a lot of their problems. While Elliott is far from their solution, he’s at least kept the play in front of him, allowing just 9.0 yards per reception and no touchdowns in coverage, while Stewart was allowing 12.0 yards per reception and allowed five touchdowns on just 40 targets in coverage. This shouldn’t be a game where Brees throws a whole lot, so Kirkwood shouldn’t suddenly be getting five-plus targets, making him an upside WR5 who has oddly shown a higher floor than Tre’Quan Smith the last month.

Mike Evans: It’s now been four straight weeks where Evans has seen eight or less targets. Keep in mind that he’d seen at least nine targets in six of his previous seven games. Evans is someone who’s never had to worry about volume, but Godwin’s and Humphries’ emergence has taken a chunk out of his target-upside. He’s surely going to see Marshon Lattimore this week, a cornerback he completely dominated in Week 1 when he posted seven catches for 147 yards and a touchdown. That may have been the best I’ve ever seen Evans in a game, as he looked young and full of burst that I hadn’t seen in recent years. Since then, he’s been playing solid football, while Lattimore has been awesome. Outside of that game, he’s allowed just 472 yards and one touchdown on 54 targets in coverage, which includes him shadowing guys like Julio Jones, Stefon Diggs, and Amari Cooper. Lattimore is no Darrelle Revis in coverage, but he’s solid enough to where you don’t need to push targets his way. It’s hard to see Evans getting more than eight targets and it’s also tough to see him having stellar efficiency against Lattimore again, especially when he was held to just 6/68/0 on 19 targets against him last year. Evans is still in the high-end WR2 conversation because the Week 1 version can return, but he isn’t a locked-and-loaded WR1 or anything.

Chris Godwin: With DeSean Jackson out of the lineup last week, it allowed Godwin to flourish in the offense, catching five passes for 101 yards and a touchdown on just six targets. He’ll see a lot of Eli Apple in coverage this week, a less-than-average cornerback who’s allowed a 72.3 percent catch-rate in his coverage to go along with 13.3 yards per reception since joining the Saints in Week 8. With Evans dealing with the tougher matchup against Lattimore, Godwin should be a favorite of Winston if Jackson is out again. In three games without Jackson in the lineup, Godwin averages 8.0 targets, 5.0 receptions, 103.3 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns. It’s a small sample size, but given his plus-matchup with Apple, Godwin is clearly in the high-end WR3 conversation this week. If Jackson were to return to the lineup, Godwin would still be in the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 territory, but he’d obviously come with a bit more risk. Update: Jackson has been ruled out. 

Adam Humphries: Since the start of Week 6, Humphries now has 40 receptions for 505 yards and five touchdowns, which is good enough to be the No. 11 receiver in that time, ahead of Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman, and Brandin Cooks. Crazy, right? In fact, he’s outscored his teammate Mike Evans in that time. While his touchdowns won’t keep pace, Humphries is locked-in as a top-36 play seemingly every week and the Saints shouldn’t scare you off him. They’ve got P.J. Williams manning the slot, who’s allowed a 127.6 QB Rating in his coverage this year. Some will say that Humphries didn’t do much in the first game (3/27/0) against them, but that was when the Saints had Patrick Robinson healthy (went down in Week 3 with a season-ending injury). The Saints allow 70.9 percent of passing production to the wide receiver position which ranks as the second-highest mark in the league, and Humphries arguably has the best matchup. He’s a rock-solid WR3 this week and one who comes with a stable floor.

DeSean Jackson: We don’t have any information on whether Jackson will play in this game, though the fact that he’s worn a soft cast on his hand the last week and has been nursing a wrist injury, it seems like his status is 50/50, at best. He destroyed the Saints back in Week 1, though that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick and it was against Ken Crawley, who was benched a long time ago. Jackson comes with massive risk even if he does play, and you can likely do better in your lineup. I’ll update these notes on Saturday morning. Update: He’s been ruled out for this game. 

TEs
Dan Arnold: Some may be saying “who?” but Arnold may be the tight end to play on the Saints moving forward, as he’s seen 13 targets over the last four games totaling 115 yards and a touchdown, while Ben Watson has seen just four targets for 21 scoreless yards in those games. Going against the Bucs, you really want to play the one who’ll see targets, though it’s tough to guarantee targets for either of them. They’ve allowed a top-15 tight end in 11-of-12 games this year, including Ian Thomas, who had to come in relief of Greg Olsen last week, yet still managed to haul in a season-high five passes for 46 yards. Arnold is worth a shot as a high-end TE2 in a great matchup, but like most streaming tight ends, he’s no sure thing.

Cameron Brate: I’ve been a big advocate of playing Brate with O.J. Howard on injured reserve, but he’s been disappointing over the first two games. Yeah, he caught a touchdown in Week 12, but just 3/36/0 against the Panthers who’ve been destroyed by tight ends? The Saints are not a matchup to target, and in-fact, they’ve been one to avoid. The Saints have yet to allow a tight end more than five receptions and they’ve yet to allow a tight end more than 54 yards, while allowing just one touchdown to them all season. Keep in mind they had matchups against Zach Ertz, Austin Hooper (twice), O.J. Howard, David Njoku, and Jordan Reed. Meanwhile, Brate hasn’t topped three receptions or 36 yards all season. It seems that Humphries has taken a lot of those targets over the middle of the field from Brate, and though I’m not giving up on him, this isn’t a matchup where you need to play him. He’s still someone who gets plenty of red zone targets, so he’s always got a chance to score, but he’s just a middling TE2 this week.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Total: 48.5
Line: GB by 6.0

QBs
Matt Ryan: We knew that Ryan had a brutal matchup last week, but to put up just 131 yards and one touchdown while at home is worrisome. The Falcons will now head to Green Bay to play a Packers team who’s allowed multiple passing touchdowns in seven of their last 11 games, with the only exceptions being Josh Allen, Tom Brady, Brock Osweiler, and Josh Rosen. They haven’t allowed many massive performances, however, as there’s been just one quarterback who’s thrown the ball more than 37 times against them (Kirk Cousins twice). They’ve generated a great pass-rush, as their sack-rate is a league-high 8.9 percent and the Falcons have allowed Ryan to be sacked on 10.0 percent of his dropbacks over the last three games, which is not a great combination. The reason for hope, however, is due to the Packers ailing secondary. They traded away safety Haha Clinton-Dix and have had injuries to safety Kentrell Brice and cornerback Kevin King. That leaves them with rookies Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson, and 35-year-old Tramon Williams starting. They also run man-coverage about 70 percent of the time, which is where Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley succeed most. If the pass-rush can’t get to Ryan, he should be able to return to QB1 status in this game (weather permitting) and comes with a solid ceiling.

Aaron Rodgers: Rejoice, Rodgers supporters. No longer shall he be shackled by Mike McCarthy’s generic offense that wasn’t able to evolve with the game. Not that Joe Philbin is magically going to change much overnight, but it definitely can’t get any worse. There have been seven different games where the Falcons have allowed three or more touchdowns, which ranks as the most in the NFL. They’ve also allowed six 300-yard performances in that time, so there’s more than just touchdown potential. It’s now been 10-of-11 quarterbacks to finish as top-15 options since losing safety Keanu Neal in Week 1. They’ve allowed a 69.4 percent completion-rate (ranks 4th-highest) and have no shutdown cornerback to hold Davante Adams in check. It’s hard to know what to expect from the Packers offense with no McCarthy, but the Falcons are a good team to experiment with. Rodgers should be in lineups as a rock-solid QB1 against a team that’s allowed four top-five performances.

RBs
Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith: You’d have to go back to Week 4 to find the last time Coleman carried the ball 14 times, which is quite odd considering Devonta Freeman has been out since Week 5. Over the last two weeks combined, he’s totaled just 14 yards on 14 carries, and then four catches for 20 yards with a touchdown. While Smith touched the ball more than him last week, he hasn’t been good either, totaling just 43 yards on his last 21 carries. The Falcons run-game is non-existent right now, but the Packers have been very giving to opposing backs, allowing 95 or more rushing yards in 9-of-12 games, while allowing at least one running back touchdown in eight of their last 10 games. They also lost defensive tackle Mike Daniels in Week 11, which led to the Cardinals running for 127 yards and two touchdowns on them in Week 12. Coleman could be a sneaky bounce-back candidate in this game, especially after carrying the ball just 14 times the last two weeks. He should be played as a low-end RB2 who might surprise. Smith is nothing more than a weak RB4 option unless we hear something about a Coleman injury.

Aaron Jones: It took a long time for McCarthy to plug Jones in as the bellcow of the offense, but apparently his 257 yards on 43 carries (5.98 yards per carry) with four touchdowns, and another 11 receptions, 111 yards, and one receiving touchdown through three games as the workhorse wasn’t enough to hang onto that job. His parting gift to fantasy owners was a 15 to 11 touch timeshare with Jamaal Williams. It’s unlikely that Philbin does the same this week against the Falcons who have suddenly lost the ability to stop the run. Over the last four weeks, they’ve allowed 586 yards on 104 carries (5.63 yards per carry), which doesn’t even include the 75 yards to Lamar Jackson last week. Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Cardinals last week, there’s a lot of pent-up aggression and Jones should be fresh after splitting a workload with Williams last week. He should be played as a low-end RB1 who comes with some risk not knowing how the offense will be handled, but we’re relying on saner heads to prevail in this one.

WRs
Julio Jones: He’s going to see a lot of Jaire Alexander this week, a rookie cornerback who’s done a fine job in coverage, though he’ll have his hands full with Jones. Alexander did struggle against Stefon Diggs a few weeks back, allowing four catches for 88 yards on six targets in coverage. The week before that, he allowed the Seahawks duo of Tyler Lockett and David Moore to four catches and 41 yards on four targets. Not to mention Jones goes into the slot about 20 percent of the time, which would evade his coverage. We do know that it means Ridley will match-up with Josh Jackson and that’d be a better matchup for Ryan to target, which could limit Jones’ ceiling. Still, there’s likely enough pass attempts to go around. Jones should be in lineups as a WR1 who can beat anyone one-on-one, though you may want to fade him in cash games due to Ridley’s matchup.

Calvin Ridley: With the way the Packers have defended opposing No. 1 receivers, Ridley is likely to see a lot of Josh Jackson while Julio sees Jaire Alexander. This gives a nice advantage to Ridley, as Jackson is a bigger cornerback who’ll often lose track of his receiver because he’s constantly looking at the quarterback to make a play on the ball. They play man-coverage about 65-70 percent of the time, which is where Ridley dominates. In straight-up man-coverage, he’s caught 35-of-47 targets for 493 yards and seven touchdowns. Jackson himself has allowed a 68.8 percent catch-rate and 13.5 yards per reception, but just one touchdown on 48 targets. Ridley has the best matchup on the team and should be able to live up to WR3 numbers with a top-15 ceiling in this game.

Mohamed Sanu: We kind of know what to expect from Sanu at this point, as he’s been in-between 45-74 yards in seven of the last nine games, while scoring in two of them. He hasn’t been able to find the end zone since back in Week 6, so you could call him due. The Packers have Tramon Williams covering the slot now and he’s been the weakest link in the red zone, allowing seven touchdowns in his coverage, including five over the last seven games. He’s the most experienced player in the secondary, but it seems his age (35) may have finally caught up with him, as the 126.6 QB Rating in his coverage is the highest mark of his 12-year career. Sanu should be in the solid-floor WR4 conversation this week.

Davante Adams: There’s been a couple of tough matchups for Adams, though he’s come out of it smelling like a rose after posting 4/57/2 on Xavien Howard, 10/166/0 against the Seahawks, 5/69/1 against Xavier Rhodes, and then 8/93/1 against Patrick Peterson last week. While those cornerbacks weren’t always in coverage, it speaks volumes as to what Adams can do, even in the toughest of matchups. The Falcons aren’t a tough matchup and they don’t have a shutdown cornerback. They’ve allowed six 100-yard receivers (including three with 10-plus receptions) and have allowed 17 touchdowns to them (4th-most in the league). There’s nothing to be concerned about with Adams this week, as he’s an elite WR1 every week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: It’s been a brutal time to be a Packers receiver if you’re not Davante Adams over the last month. Outside of Adams, the remaining wide receivers have totaled just 182 yards and no touchdowns over the last four games. Is Rodgers done? No, which is why you need to consider Valdes-Scantling in a plus-matchup. The Falcons play sides on defense, so he’ll see a mixture of both Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, though if the alignment remains constant, he’ll see more of Trufant in coverage. Both have been pretty bad in coverage, but Alford is the one who’s constantly been beat down the field while allowing 17.8 yards per reception and five touchdowns on just 56 targets. If Rodgers bounces back, he can most definitely support two receivers. Because of that, Valdes-Scantling belongs in the WR4 conversation and has more upside than most remember.

Randall Cobb: He returned last week to play 61-of-76 plays, though he put up another dud on the fantasy sheet despite a Grade-A matchup against Budda Baker. He’s still yet to top 40 yards since way back in Week 1, though his snap count in Week 13 was encouraging. The Falcons have Brian Poole covering the slot, who has been better over the last six weeks, allowing just 9-of-15 passing for 70 yards and no touchdowns in his coverage, including a game against the Browns where he held Jarvis Landry to just two catches and 22 scoreless yards in a week where Baker Mayfield threw for 216 yards and three touchdowns. Cobb can always rediscover his connection with Rodgers, but you shouldn’t be banking on it until we see it happen on the field. He’s just a risky WR5 for this week.

TEs
Austin Hooper: It happened again, the Falcons attacked the weakest point of the opponent’s defense with Hooper as he caught all five targets for 44 yards and a touchdown against the Ravens. It’s been really predictable when to play Hooper this year, and when we look at the Packers defense, Week 14 is not one of them. They’ve been dominant against tight ends, allowing just one touchdown on the season and 42.9 yards per game to them. Hooper has not topped 56 yards since Week 6 and hasn’t topped 77 yards all season, so it’s not as if his reward is worth the risk you’d be taking in a matchup like this. There’s been just three top-12 performers against them this year and two of those belong to Kyle Rudolph, who is in division and knows how to navigate their defense very well. Hooper is nothing more than a high-end TE2 this week and not one you should be aiming to play.

Jimmy Graham: Can someone explain to me why Graham, the guy with the broken thumb, saw a season-high 11 targets in a game that had below-freezing temps? He caught eight of them, so he was efficient, though he totaled just 50 yards. His average depth of target was just 5.5 yards, so he was essentially an extension of the run-game. The Falcons have yet to allow a truly massive game to a tight end, as four catches for 62 yards and a touchdown was the best PPR performance against them this year. They’re the definition of a middle-of-the-pack defense against the position, as they’ve allowed eight different tight ends to catch at least four passes, but have not allowed more than five receptions, and have allowed just four touchdowns to them all year. Graham’s thumb is a concern for his upside, as is the matchup, so he’s stuck in the middling to high-end TE2 conversation.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Total: 38.5
Line: BUF by 3.5

QBs
Sam Darnold: He’ll return this week, though it’s not going to be anything to worry about for fantasy purposes. The Bills have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, allowing just 202.5 passing yards per game while intercepting 11 passes. We did see Ryan Tannehill throw three touchdowns against them last week, but he threw for just 137 yards. In fact, it was the seventh time in eight games the Bills held a quarterback below 180 passing yards. On the road, behind a weak offensive line, with no receiving help, and on a team who’s projected to score 17.5 points, Darnold is not a fantasy option.

Josh Allen: It’s odd but Allen has now scored 55.04 fantasy points over the last two weeks. The only quarterback who’s scored more fantasy points over their last two games is Patrick Mahomes. You think Lamar Jackson is mobile? Allen has outrushed him 234 to 146 the last two weeks. Look, Allen is not someone you want to watch, as he’s all over the place, but his rushing cannot be ignored. The Jets have also allowed five different quarterbacks rush for more than 20 yards, including three of them to reach 43 or more yards. They’ve still yet to allow a rushing touchdown to a quarterback, which is what we’re looking for with Allen because he’s thrown one or less touchdowns in all but one game this year. He’s also failed to throw for more than 200 yards in 5-of-7 starts. But again, since returning from his injury, he’s rushed 22 times for 234 yards and a touchdown. I’m not going to say that Allen is as safe as Lamar Jackson, because they don’t run the same style offense and I don’t believe the rushing attempts are guaranteed with Allen, but the upside is very similar. He’s a high-floor QB2 but it’s not something you want to watch.

RBs
Isaiah Crowell and Elijah McGuire: Since the bye week, we’ve seen Crowell lead the team in touches, 36-14 over McGuire. It’s clearly his backfield right now and he had his best game in quite a long time in Week 13 when he posted 98 yards on 21 carries against the Titans. It was his first game to reach 50 rushing yards since way back in Week 5. The Bills have not been nearly as giving to opposing run-games this year, allowing more than 90 rushing yards to the entire team of running backs on just four occasions, though they have allowed seven rushing touchdowns over the last six games. There’s been just two running backs who’ve been able to reach 80 yards on the ground against them (Leonard Fournette, Marlon Mack), and both saw at least 18 carries, a number Crowell hit for the first time in Week 13. At this point, nobody is expecting Crowell to be a 100-yard running back, but rather hoping he’ll be able to find the end zone. He did score against them back in Week 10, but also totaled just 19 yards on seven carries in a blowout. It’s unlikely the Bills blow them out again, so we should see Crowell at least eclipse the 12-carry mark and have a good shot at a touchdown. He’s on the high-end RB3 radar this week with his increased role. McGuire is not someone you want to play while he’s totaled just 14 touches over the last two weeks in a low-scoring offense. He’s just a low-end RB4. Update: Crowell missed a lot of practice this week with a toe injury and he’s considered highly questionable to play on Sunday. If he’s held out, McGuire should be bumped up to the primary ball-carrier with some receptions mixed in. He’d be in the middling RB3 conversation. 

LeSean McCoy: You’d think that the threat of Allen’s rushing prowess over the last two weeks would help McCoy, but he’s totaled just 98 yards on 32 carries. This game is a rematch of the Week 10 game where McCoy scored his only two touchdowns of the season when he tallied 118 total yards against the Jets. Over the last eight games, the Jets have allowed a robust 4.92 yards per carry and have now allowed seven rushing touchdowns in their last six games. An issue with McCoy is that the Bills just lost their center Russell Bodine, which leaves him to an even worse offensive line that was already terrible to begin with. Knowing he overcame that in the first meeting with the Jets gives him appeal, but we know by now not to trust McCoy as anything more than an RB3 in this offense.

WRs
Robby Anderson: After getting seven targets from Josh McCown last week, Anderson will go back to Darnold, who he’s struggled to connect with throughout the year. Whatever the case, Anderson has reached 50 yards just once this season, so a matchup with the Bills isn’t all that appealing. They’ve allowed just 1,462 yards to them on the season, which is the lowest in the NFL (Ravens closest at 1,501). They’ve also allowed a league-low 10.8 yards per reception to receivers, so Anderson’s 27 receptions through 10 games played doesn’t look all that appealing. He’s not going to get shadow treatment from Tre’Davious White, but it doesn’t even matter. Anderson could catch one long touchdown and prove me wrong, but there’s a lot of guys on the waiver wire you can say the same about. He’s nothing more than a big-play hopeful WR5.

Jermaine Kearse: One week after seeing 12 targets against the Patriots, Kearse saw exactly zero targets against the Titans last week. Despite four games with nine or more targets, Kearse has topped 35 yards just twice all season. The Bills biggest weakness in the secondary is slot cornerback Taron Johnson, but it’s not so much of a weakness that you’d want to play Kearse in the fantasy playoffs.

Zay Jones: If there’s one Bills wide receiver to cover, it’d be Jones for this game. Here’s the weekly chart on slot-heavy receivers against the Jets:

It’s a risky proposition trusting Jones after he tallied just one target in Week 12, but he’s coming off a nine-target game where he finished with 4/67/2 against the Dolphins. The Jets and cornerback Buster Skrine allowed Jones 8/93/1 just a few weeks back, so you’d think they’d adjust, but when looking at what they’ve continually allowed to slot receivers, it’s hard to say they do. Jones should be looked at as a risky WR4-type option who just might be crazy enough to work.

TEs
Chris Herndon: He’s someone who we’ve been able to stream, but it’s getting close to the point where he may actually enter the top-12 conversation because he’s seen 22 targets over the last four games. Despite having his bye week during the last five-week stretch, he ranks 11th among tight ends in targets. The issue is that the Bills have been really good against tight ends this year, holding them to a league-low 55.7 percent catch-rate and just 6.07 yards per target. Herndon hasn’t scored since Week 8 and the Bills have allowed just one tight end touchdown since Week 7. His target floor is looking better and better, but the matchup doesn’t scream streaming material here, making him just a middling TE2.

Charles Clay: Saving myself some time here… you aren’t playing any Bills tight end. They don’t get targets and the Jets don’t allow tight end production. Ah, that felt good.