The best thing about dynasty is maneuvering your roster via trades, the rookie draft, or the waiver wire. But what makes all that even sweeter is when you can look back and know that you maximized the value of a particular player. It’s obviously everyone’s objective to make it to the top, but along the way one of the hardest things to do is know when to sell players at just the right time. Depending on your current roster construction you might be more of a buyer than a seller, but regardless, every dynasty owner should look for ways to improve their roster by selling players at peak value, or shipping guys off before they end up declining on your roster and returning lower value. Here are four guys that fall into each of these categories. Happy selling!
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Everest Players – The guys that have (potentially) reached their peak value. Time to sell high!
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
What?! Sell off the hottest NFL player after only one year as a starter at the age of 23? Seems crazy at first, but remember we’re looking for value when it comes to these players. Mahomes had an amazing rookie season which everyone is more than aware of, but at this point, it’s hard to imagine his value will get any higher.
I will clarify that selling Mahomes is for those owners that own him in leagues where you can only start one QB. The position is so deep in single-QB leagues that QBs can be found anywhere. Add in the fact, that Mahomes is coming off a 50-TD season, which has only been done two other times in the history of the NFL, and even at his young age, we might have just seen the peak of his career.
James Conner (RB – PIT)
If you were lucky enough to have stashed James Conner heading into 2018, you no doubt were able to acquire him on the cheap. Conner had a fantastic sophomore season with the Steelers, finishing with 1,470 total yards and 15 TDs in just 13 games and you could argue he was the top value across dynasty and fantasy football. However, Conner has a few things working against him in my opinion.
One being that the Steelers don’t have a lot committed to Conner. He was a third-round pick in 2017 and doesn’t carry a ton of draft capital. Another concern I’d have from a dynasty perspective is how long this Pittsburgh offense can keep up at its current production. All good things must come to end, and when Ben Roethlisberger hangs it up, there could be a lot of questions around this offense.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – CLE)
Unlike most of the guys on this list, I don’t want to move OBJ, but I’d be dangling him out there to see if you can take advantage of this recent Cleveland Browns hype train. Beckham is in consideration for the 1.01 in most dynasty startup drafts and now that he’s free from the Giants, people want a piece of this Browns team. Besides the extreme value Beckham carries, why would I want to move this superstar WR?
Remember, Beckham has only played more than 12 games twice in his five-year career, and as much as we like Baker Mayfield’s future, he did spread the ball around a lot in his rookie year. A Cleveland WR managed 10 or more targets just four times in Mayfield’s 13 starts. In comparison, Beckham has averaged 10+ targets per game during his time in New York.
N’Keal Harry (WR – NE)
It’s weird to say that a rookie WR who has yet to touch the field is at his peak, but based on Harry’s current value, you could make the case. By landing in New England, Harry instantly jumped up rookie draft boards and appears to be the unquestioned top WR in this rookie class. However, if I own Harry (or a top-end rookie draft pick), I’m selling now.
It seems like we’ve been saying it for years, but Tom Brady can’t play forever. Once he does decide to hang it up, where does that leave this team? Add in that New England, even with Brady, hasn’t produced two top-40 WRs since 2014 and I think Harry’s chances of reaching his lofty expectations are slim.
Avoiding the Eastwood Ravine – The players to sell before you pass the point of no return and they fall off a cliff.
Jameis Winston (QB – TB)
Usually, a category like this includes older players with just enough time left to return value, but in this case with Winston, I’m getting out now and avoiding the risk. With Tampa Bay bringing in Bruce Arians, I don’t think all hope is lost for the 25-year-old QB, but I do think there is a wide range of outcomes for Winston over the next six-to-seven months. Could he turn it all around and become the top-end QB we hoped for after being drafted first overall?
Sure. But based on what we’ve seen from Winston so far in his career, I think it’s just as likely that the Bucs get tired of his struggles and interceptions (58 INTs in 56 career games) and change direction. Arians brings enough hype that I think selling now is the smart call.
James White (RB – NE)
Surprisingly, the pass-catching specialist for the Patriots will be 27 entering the 2019 season, and with just one year left on his current contract, I think this is the right time to sell. What also makes this a great time to sell White is that he’s coming off his best fantasy season, in which he had 115 more PPR fantasy points than any other season of his career. With the Patriots drafting Damien Harris in the third round of this year’s draft, one year after investing a first rounder in Sony Michel, I could see the Patriots moving on from White in the near future.
Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL)
I’ve loved Freeman during his time in the league, and I have high expectations for him in 2019. However, unless you’re a clear contender, I’d be looking to move Freeman at his current value. Freeman will be 27 entering the 2019 season, and with injuries plaguing him through most of his career, I wouldn’t expect him to be a long-term contributor for dynasty owners. He won’t be hard to sell after Atlanta invested heavily in their offensive line in the draft and let Tevin Coleman walk this offseason with very little brought in to replace him.
A.J. Green (WR – CIN)
Again, another player I’ve loved over the course of his career, but this is dynasty, and part of that is knowing when to sell and get out. Green is still a great talent, but he has a few things working against him that haven’t been talked about much. While still being considered a top-12 WR by most owners, Green has failed to finish inside the top 30 in two of his last three seasons. That can be tied to injuries, but Green will be 31 when the 2019 season kicks off, so this might be your last chance to sell before dynasty owners start expecting a discount on Green due to his age.
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Kyle August is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @kyleFFfellas.
