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Lamar Miller isn’t going to win you your fantasy football league. Of course, he’s not going to lose it for you either. But to finish first place out of 10, 12, or 14 people, you need to have a few guys on your roster who wildly outperform their ADP. I’m talking about the Tyler Boyds of the world. Today, we’ll look at a few wide receivers who are being drafted outside the top 36 at the wide receiver position with the potential to be an every-week starter this year. Once you get into this range of the draft, every player available has significant risk associated with drafting them, so you might as well shoot for upside.
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Courtland Sutton (DEN)
While Courtland Sutton’s rookie season wasn’t as good as other highly drafted wideouts like D.J. Moore or Calvin Ridley, the SMU product still topped 700 yards receiving despite being buried on the depth chart. With Demaryius Thomas gone and Emmanuel Sanders coming off a torn Achilles, the second-year wideout is primed to break out this season if he can secure the WR1 role in Denver. In college, Sutton had a 74th percentile College Dominator Rating and a 68th percentile breakout age to go along with elite measurables (85th percentile SPARQ-x score). That’s a rare combination of production and athleticism, plus the Broncos have every incentive to feature him given that they spent a second-round pick on him. Sutton has unrivaled upside at his current ADP of WR39.
Marvin Jones (DET)
Believe it or not, Jones was the Lions’ WR2 — behind Golden Tate — for the first half of last season. Before getting injured, Jones ranked second on the Lions in targets, air yards, and weighted opportunity rating. While Golladay’s breakout second half and youth cement him as the WR1 for the future, this could easily end up being a 1A/1B situation for 2019. We’re only one year removed from Jones finishing as a WR1 in standard scoring, so don’t forget about Jones in the middle rounds of your fantasy football drafts.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB)
Davante Adams is the clear WR1 in Green Bay, but the WR2 role is very much up for grabs. Rodgers’ WR2 has historically been extremely productive, with Randall Cobb and Davante Adams posting fantasy-relevant numbers in years past despite not being the #1 target in the Packers’ offense. While MVS wasn’t a prolific college producer, he’s a great athlete with 4.37 burners and above-average agility. MVS must beat out Geronimo Allison if he wants to be startable in fantasy, but I’d rather bet on the younger guy taking a big step forward in Year 2.
Josh Gordon (NE)
Obviously, Gordon’s ADP skyrocketed after he was recently reinstated by the NFL, as he is currently listed at WR33 in FantasyPros’ ADP and it’s unclear how much further his ADP will continue to rise. Regardless, Gordon has obvious WR1 upside considering he had 1,800 yards just six short years ago with Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell at quarterback. Obviously, it’s been a while since he’s been at that level of production, but Gordon still averaged 3.6 receptions and 65.5 yards per game as a Patriot last year even though he was traded after Week 1 and didn’t get to learn the playbook or build chemistry with Tom Brady during the offseason.
Now reinstated in the middle of August, Gordon has plenty of time to get up to speed, and Rob Gronkowski is no longer there to steal targets. Julian Edelman and James White are both going to be heavily involved, but peak Josh Gordon trumps both of them. You shouldn’t expect to get peak Gordon (or anything close to it, really), but he has shown that he has legitimate top-five upside when he’s on his game, and you can’t pass that up if he’s being taken as a low-end WR3.
Tre’Quan Smith (NO)
Tre’Quan Smith looks like the best late-round wide receiver in all of fantasy right now at his current ADP of WR66. Considering his above-average college production — 61st percentile College Dominator Rating and 87th percentile breakout age — along with his elite speed and burst, the Saints got a steal when they drafted him with the 27th pick of the third round in the 2018 NFL Draft. Smith struggled to get consistent volume in his rookie season, but he could break out in year two if he can secure the WR2 role over Ted Ginn. While the Saints’ offense isn’t as pass-heavy as it used to be, Smith will likely post above-average efficiency because of the man he’s getting the targets from. Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are going to be the main targets in NOLA, but Smith could earn a role as a boom-or-bust deep threat a la his teammate (and opponent in the WR2 race), Ted Ginn.
Put simply, drafting guys who finish at or close to their ADP isn’t going to win you a championship. While these wide receivers do have significant risks associated with them, they all present massive upside relative to cost and are buys at their current ADP.
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