Every year, a late-round player breaks out and helps fantasy players win their championships. They’re called “sleepers.” Last year, tight ends Darren Waller and Mark Andrews exploded for TE1 finishes despite their back-half ADPs. Waller finished as the TE3 while Andrews finished as the TE5 — that’s much better value than whatever Evan Engram or O.J. Howard drafters got.

This season, there are a handful of sleepers capable of posting numbers similar to Andrews and Waller. Who are they? Well, FantasyPros polled experts for their picks, and I’m here to contextualize them — and to give you my take.

View the full list of consensus fantasy football sleepers at TE

1. Jonnu Smith (TEN)
ECR: TE16; ADP: TE19
Experts in Support: 8

Unsurprisingly, Kyle Yates’ favorite tight end sleeper graces this list with his presence. After several seasons behind Delanie Walker, the 2017 third-rounder will get a crack at TE1 duties for Tennessee, and there’s certainly tons of upside here.

The Titans threw to their tight ends 107 times last season, and 31 of those targets are now vacated without Walker. That’s a pretty solid number, especially since the Titans attempted the second-fewest passes (448) in 2019.

Yates is fairly bullish on Smith’s workload — his top-six projection assumes that Smith gets at least 102 targets. I think that’s a bit too optimistic; Anthony Firsker and MyCole Pruitt won’t just disappear. Also, wide receivers Adam Humphries and Corey Davis missed five games last year, and 43 percent of Smith’s 44 targets came in the 31 percent of the season that the two of them missed.

That said, while Smith may need 107 targets to finish as a top-six tight end, he doesn’t need them to finish as a TE1. If he can become Ryan Tannehill’s preferred red-zone target, or if the Titans have to pass more to stay competitive in games, Smith could break out for a low-end TE1 result — that’s a great value at his ADP.

If you’re planning to stream tight end this year, Smith faces off against the Denver Broncos in Week 1. I expect Vic Fangio’s defense to be electric this season, so that’s a hard pass for me — you should look elsewhere for a Week 1 streaming option.

2. Blake Jarwin (DAL)
ECR: TE18; ADP: TE21
Experts in Support: 6

I don’t love Jarwin, but I don’t hate him, either. The Dallas Cowboys paid him $22 million this offseason, so it’s clear that they see Jarwin as their lead guy now that Jason Witten is a Las Vegas Raider.

The Cowboys targeted their tight ends 126 times last season, and 83 of them went to Witten. Randall Cobb’s departure frees up another 83 looks in this offense, too. While a healthy chunk of these vacated targets will go to rookie CeeDee Lamb, Jarwin should see enough looks to return some fantasy value.

That said, Jarwin doesn’t have the same degree of upside as other players on this list — or as Andrews and Waller did last year. He won’t ever be the first, second, or third option on this offense, so his ceiling is likely capped in the low-end TE1 range.

While I’m not excited about taking Jarwin as my TE1, he’s a decent TE2 if you take a risk on someone like Rob Gronkowski earlier in your draft. He also plays the Rams in Week 1, and their defense doesn’t scare me much, so he can be a good Week 1 streamer if that’s your plan.

3. Chris Herndon IV (NYJ)
ECR: TE19; ADP: TE28
Experts in Support: 8

A terrible 2019 derailed the Herndon hype train. He played in only 18 snaps last year because of a suspension and an injury, but his handful of explosive games in 2018 prove that he still has some value. Herndon finished as the TE16 that season after a TE7 streak from Week 6 to Week 16!

To be fair, the Jets have since added two new weapons to the short-yardage receiving game: Jamison Crowder and Le’Veon Bell. While both of them are more reliable players than Herndon, they lack the six-foot-four, 250-pound frame that Herndon brings to the table. And although newcomer Breshad Perriman rivals him in size, Herndon has better hands, so I’m optimistic that he can become the favored red-zone target.

Head coach Adam Gase has praised Herndon’s chemistry with Sam Darnold in camp. He may have missed some practices with chest tightness, it doesn’t seem like it’ll affect his Week 1 availability.

The massive gap between Herndon’s ADP and ECR is all you need to know here. Herndon has as good a shot as any sleeper does to finish as a TE1, but you can get him for much cheaper than anyone else on this list. He’s a slam-dunk pick in the last round of your fantasy drafts regardless of format.

4. Dallas Goedert (PHI)
ECR: TE17; ADP: TE17
Experts in Support: 4

Okay. For as much as Kyle Yates loves Jonnu Smith, I love Dallas Goedert. Unlike the guys above, Goedert is a proven high-volume guy:

2. Waller's TE3 finish depended upon his high reception/target volume. He earned 117 targets (24th most) and 90 catches (11th).

Goedert is set up for tons of volume:
a. He had 87 targets (58th) and 58 catches (52nd).
b. Philly TEs totaled 235 targets (1st) and 155 catches (1st).

— Isaiah Sirois (@is_sirois) August 3, 2020

I assume that Goedert skeptics don’t like him because he’s a TE2. But all of that volume — and Goedert’s TE10 finish — came with Zach Ertz on the roster! We know that Ertz can finish as a low-end TE1 without being the lead tight end on his team’s roster; the only question is whether he’ll see that volume again.

Alshon Jeffery and Jalen Reagor are hurt. Marquise Goodwin opted out. The Eagles have DeSean Jackson, Greg Ward, and John Hightower atop their depth chart at wide receiver for Week 1, and I think that should push Carson Wentz to keep targeting his reliable tight ends.

Goedert has the volume to finish as a TE1 in his current situation. And if anything changes, like if Zach Ertz went down, then he’d immediately become a high-end TE1. You can’t say that about anyone else on this list, so Goedert feels like a great TE2-with-upside pick late in drafts.

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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.