Feast or Famine: Week 7 (2020 Fantasy Football)
Welcome to Feast or Famine! Each week, I’ll break down the most variable player rankings by standard deviation from FantasyPros Weekly ECR.
These players are ranked as either sensational hits or relative busts, and I’ll be giving my reasoning on why you should lean one side over the other. Having no clear group consensus means these are the decisions that could win or lose you your weekly matchup or DFS lineup. Knowledge is power in these situations, so let’s begin.
Matthew Stafford (DET)
Highest rank: QB5. Lowest Rank: QB14.
For the first time this season, I have an identical featured repeat. A slight miss last week on Stafford stung as the Lions scored 34 points, of which only one included Stafford. The rest came on the ground or through field goals as the Lions dominated the game script. Now as slight underdogs, they still have an implied total of 27, which is two points above the league average of 25. Atlanta has been a top pass-funnel defense every weekm and no team has allowed more passing yards this season. Shake off the mild blow of last week and fire him up as a top-six option this week.
Drew Brees (NO)
Highest rank: QB9. Lowest Rank: QB18.
The Panthers have allowed a single quarterback to throw over 240 yards this season, holding the likes of Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, and Matt Ryan in check for volume. A big reason for this is their abysmal running defense, and Brees is not an agile quarterback by any means. As 7.5 point favorites and one of the best backfields in the league, the game script and the exploitability of their matchup all favor the ground game.
Justin Jackson (LAC)
Highest rank: RB20. Lowest Rank: RB46.
After getting the nod to start in Week 5, Jackson held his own for 71 yards rushing and five receptions for 23 yards. My quarterly Yards Created Over Expected report shows that Kelley is one of the worst runners in the league. The coaches have realized that Jackson gives them more efficiency, so he should see more work going forward. The Chargers are currently 8.0 point favorites, and that should lend to a run-heavy script for him on Sunday. The Jaguars also just allowed three rushing touchdowns last week as the cherry on top.
Boston Scott (PHI)
Highest rank: RB15. Lowest Rank: RB45.
The popular waiver add just doesn’t seem as exciting this year. The Giants have the fourth-slowest pace of play this year, which has coincidentally resulted in lower scoring fantasy opportunities for the opposing teams. I imagine a heavy timeshare is coming up that will limit Scott’s upside as well. With one of the lowest point totals of the week (45), it might be best to wait and see how this scenario shakes out.
Tee Higgins (CIN)
Highest rank: WR16. Lowest Rank: WR33.
The average single team snaps per game is 65.6. In this game, the teams’ combined averages are at 69.4, the highest rate of the week. The Browns continue to be a pass-funnel defense and have allowed the fourth-most points to wide receivers on the year. Now combine this with the facts that Higgins has averaged eight targets a game for four weeks straight — and that the Bengals are averaging 270 yards passing per game — and we have a recipe for success.
Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd: A tale of comfort in week 7
Bengals averaging 2nd highest pass att/G ✅
Browns a pass-funnel D ✅
Browns allowed 4th-highest pts to WRs ✅
Bengals-Browns combines for highest avg. game snap pace of the week (69.4) ✅
— David Zach (@DavidZach16) October 21, 2020
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
Highest rank: WR18. Lowest Rank: WR29.
Anyone with Cowboys wide receivers right now are even more disappointed than when Dak went down for the year, as Andy Dalton showed less than competent ability against the Cardinals. While I do believe Dalton will eventually turn it around to a degree, this isn’t a safe play this week. Both teams have been more running back friendly to opposing squads, which should translate into a low play count. Washington also happens to be allowing the third-fewest points to wide receivers on the year, which is also likely a result of teams running out the clock on them. Save Lamb for a better-looking matchup in the coming weeks.
Chris Herndon (NYJ)
Highest rank: TE21. Lowest Rank: TE29.
Herndon has been a massive letdown this year thanks to the worst offense in the league, Adam Gase’s coaching, and injuries around the team. His last somewhat usable game was in Week 1 against the Bills, who he gets again this week. This play is a feast in the sense of it relative to Herndon’s season, but the Bills have been exploitable at tight end and from the slot this year. He’s definitely a high-risk play, however.
Thanks for reading and stay golden! If you like what you learned, follow me @DavidZach16 for more interesting stats and tidbits throughout the year.
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