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Top FanDuel NFL DFS Upside Picks: Week 5 (2020)

Oct 9, 2020

Deshaun Watson is primed for a get-right performance against a bottom-half Jaguars defense

Welcome back to Ball Street DFS, where finance and fantasy meet. In this weekly article, I apply financial metrics to the fantasy football world to give you an edge when building your FanDuel lineups. 

Coming off a red-hot Week 3 on Ball Street, Week 4 was a humbling and unwelcome turn of events. Outside of Aaron Rodgers (QB3, 29.58 FanDuel points), none of my picks returned week-winning upside. My “Blue Chip” wide receiver pick, Calvin Ridley, put up zero (0) FanDuel points in a fantastic matchup with the Packers. Mike Gesicki, my “Cash Cow” play of the week, caught one pass for fifteen yards. And last but not least, Rams running back Darrell Henderson produced 37 total yards in an absolute smash spot versus the Giants. There’s no getting around it – last week’s picks missed the mark…by a long shot. My belief, however, is that Week 4’s massive dud successfully purged the negative fantasy karma I had coming my way. Thus, it’s only logical that this coming week puts Ball Street back in the green. Fortunately for us, there are several players primed to pack the stat sheets in Week 5.

Today, I’ll be highlighting 12 players who, based on investment metrics, are oozing with upside and need to be plugged into your Week 5 DFS lineups.

Before we dive in, let me break down the lingo we use on “Ball Street.” First, the focus of this article is a value I coined “Upside per Dollar,” which will be referred to as UPD. “UPD” is the product of a modified financial formula that determines how much “blowup potential” a given player offers you per dollar of your investment (his FanDuel price). In short, UPD tells you which players present the most potential bang for your buck. Below, I will highlight the 12 players who boast exceptionally high UPD scores for Week 5. 

Each position group is broken down as follows: 

  • Blue Chips: the studs presenting massive upside that come with a higher price tag
  • Mid-Caps: the more affordable upside picks
  • Penny Stocks: the cheapest upside plays FanDuel has to offer
  • *Cash Cow: The one must-start UPD standout among all 12 listed players

Lastly, if you’re looking to go all-in on this week’s upside picks, you can check out Ball Street’s “All-Upside Lineup” at the bottom of the article. Follow me on Twitter @ballstreetff to track the results from Week 5 and beyond!

Create Optimal FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

Quarterbacks

Blue Chips:

Russell Wilson (SEA) vs. Minnesota ($8,600) – As long as Russ continues to cook, I will continue to pay up. The MVP front-runner gets a juicy matchup with the Vikings in Week 5, where the Seahawks boast an implied team total of 32.25 points.

Mid-Caps:

Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs. Jacksonville ($7,900) – The Texans’ signal-caller is primed for a get-right performance against a bottom-half Jaguars defense that just surrendered 300 passing yards to rookie quarterback Joe Burrow.

Penny Stocks:

Teddy Bridgewater (CAR) vs. Atlanta ($7,100) – Fresh off a 27-point performance in Week 4, Bridgewater takes on a porous Falcons defense giving up the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. 

Running Backs

Blue Chips:

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) vs. Las Vegas ($7,900) – Edwards-Helaire figures to see a heavy workload both on the ground and through the air in a game where Vegas projects the Chiefs to put up a league-high 35 points. 

Mid-Caps:

James Robinson (JAC) vs. Houston ($6,600) – The red-hot UDFA-turned-Jaguars RB1 faces a Texans defense surrendering the second-most fantasy points to running backs.

Penny Stocks:

Kenyan Drake (ARI) vs. New York Jets ($6,200) – Despite his underperformance through 4 weeks, I’m giving Drake a chance to right the ship in what should be a positive game script against the Jets, who rank in the league’s bottom 10 against running backs.

Wide Receivers

Blue Chips:

Amari Cooper (DAL) vs. New York Giants ($7,800) – After a monster 27.4-point Week 4 performance where he finished as the WR2, the stars are aligning for Cooper to repeat against an average Giants secondary.

Mid-Caps:

D.K. Metcalf (SEA) vs. Minnesota ($6,700) – Metcalf, who has been the beneficiary of Russell Wilson’s MVP-level play, offers serious blowup potential against a Vikings defense giving up the 4th-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Penny Stocks:

*Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. Seattle ($5,700) – Hot off two straight 100-yard performances, Jefferson is a lock to keep the streak alive in a shootout sporting a league-high over/under of 57.5 points. *Jefferson is this week’s “Cash Cow”. Get him in your lineups.

Tight Ends

Blue Chips:

Darren Waller (LV) vs. Kansas City ($6,800) – With the Raiders’ receiving corps banged up, quarterback Derek Carr will look Waller’s way early and often while trying to keep up with the Chiefs’ explosive offense.

Mid-Caps:

Jonnu Smith (TEN) vs. Buffalo ($5,800) – Smith, who has three touchdowns through three games in 2020, will likely add to his total against a Bills defense that has given up the 8th-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Penny Stocks:

Dalton Schultz (DAL) vs. New York Giants ($5,300) – Given the Cowboys implied team point total of 32, I like Schultz as an inexpensive piece of this flourishing passing attack against the Giants.

Ball Street’s Week 5 All-Upside Lineup

  • QB – Russell Wilson ($8,600)
  • RB – Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($7,900)
  • RB – James Robinson ($6,600)
  • WR – Amari Cooper ($7,800)
  • WR – D.K. Metcalf ($6,700)
  • WR – Justin Jefferson ($5,700)
  • TE – Darren Waller ($6,800)
  • FLEX – Kenyan Drake ($6,200)
  • DEF – Houston ($3,700)

Create Optimal FanDuel lineups using our FanDuel Lineup Optimizer tool >>


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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Stephen Krupka is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Stephen, check out his archive or follow him @ballstreetff.

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