Analyzing Vegas’ odds is a helpful strategy all DFS players should look to take advantage of. It can help when weighing competing lineup options for any given week. A high over/under total can clue us into contests Vegas projects to have a high combined score. More opportunities for scoring can lead to increased opportunities for fantasy points.
Small point spreads show us which games Vegas projects to be competitive. Competitive contests suggest that the game script will not force either team to abandon the run or the pass. Large point spreads, on the other hand, suggest that the team with a large lead may look to run out the clock in the second half, or in some cases rest their starters as the game winds down. For the team that is behind it means that they may be forced to abandon the run in favor of being more aggressive through the air in an effort to put points on the board quicker.
High total contests can also alert us to potential chalky plays. While analyzing Vegas odds should not be the only tool you use to decide on roster options, it should, along with a host of other variables, play a correlative factor in your decision making.
This week we will take a look at a contest with one of the highest totals of the week, as well as one with one of the largest spreads. These two battles are sure to have some chalky plays, but need to be dissected nonetheless.
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Russell Wilson has been fantastic in 2020. He is the QB1 in fantasy points per game and is on pace for 59 passing touchdowns. He is averaging career highs with a 71.5 completion percentage, 307.3 passing yards per game, an insane 10.2 touchdown percentage, and 8.4 yards per attempt. Wilson has thrown for three or more touchdowns in all but one game this season and is an elite play despite facing the Bills. Buffalo has allowed just the 17th most fantasy points to the quarterback position, but are down offseason acquisition Josh Norman. He is worth a play if you can find the bargains elsewhere to still field a roster you are comfortable with.
Josh Allen is the QB6 in fantasy points per game and has a tremendous matchup against a Seahawks defense surrendering the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Allen has come crashing back to earth after a hot start that saw him throw 12 touchdown passes and rush for three more in his first four games of the season. Over his last four, he has just four total passing touchdowns and one rushing score.
Chris Carson’s status for this weekend is still up in the air, but if he can log a full practice session at some point this week, expect him to play. The RB7 in fantasy points per game, Carson will be a strong play if he is active. If he cannot go, DeeJay Dallas will get another start. The RB4 in Week 8, DeeJay played well ahead of Travis Homer, a player he played behind at the University of Miami. He is priced much higher than last week but still represents a good value if he is starting. Buffalo has relinquished the 14th most fantasy points to enemy backs making whoever gets the start a solid relative value.
Both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have been disappointments this season. Singletary is the RB37 in fantasy points per game, while Moss is the RB41 in fantasy points per game. Things should get better for the Bills run game, especially now that Moss is healthy. Both backs are worth looks this week but projected gamescript needs to be taken into account. The fact that opposing offenses have been forced to throw on a regular basis has helped the Seahawks limit opposing running backs to the 13th fewest fantasy points per game.
D.K. Metcalf has been sensational this season. The WR2 in fantasy points per game, Metcalf is fourth in the league with 680 receiving yards, fourth with 97.2 receiving yards per game, first with seven receiving touchdowns, and second with 19.2 yards per reception. He was quiet against Arizona in Week 7 but bounced back with a career day against the 49ers in Week 8. DFS providers have finally started giving him his respect, but that also means that Metcalf is no longer a steal value-wise. He is still an elite option that should be a part of every multi-entry strategy, but his salary will need to be weighed against competing options if setting just one lineup this weekend.
Tyler Lockett has been excellent this season as well. The WR3 in fantasy points per game, Lockett is ninth in the league with 49 receptions, first with seven receiving touchdowns, 10th with 82.1 receiving yards per game, and sixth with 16.9 yards per reception. He has two three touchdown games this season and could go off again in Week 9 if Tre’Davious White decides to shadow Metcalf and leaves Lockett to battle Levi Wallace. The Bills have held the position to the seventh fewest fantasy points but both Metcalf and Lockett remain elite plays due to Wilson’s scorching hot play.
Stefon Diggs has been excellent this season. The WR13 in fantasy points per game, Diggs has posted 86 receiving yards and or a touchdown in all but one of his eight contests. He has six receptions in all but one contest this season. Diggs is sure to be a chalky play against a Seahawks defense surrendering the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position but may be a necessary evil in what could be a massive game.
If you are looking to pivot off Diggs but still roster part of what could be a massive day for the Bills passing attack, Cole Beasley and John Brown should be considered. Brown has had problems staying healthy but had averaged 76 receiving yards and a touchdown before getting hurt in Week 3. He has played hurt since then but appears to be rounding back into full health. Beasley has been strong this season as well as he has 70 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in five of his eight contests this season. Both receivers are poised to have potentially massive games. Rookie Gabriel Davis, while impressive, is more of a multi-entry dart.
Greg Olsen, Will Dissly, and Jacob Hollister continue to cancel each other out most weeks, and Week 8 should be no different. They should combine for a strong game but the production will likely be spread out once again. Olsen and Dissly are both worth multi-entry darts due to facing a Bills defense surrendering the fifth most fantasy points to enemy right ends.
With Dawson Knox still sidelined with a calf injury and also on the reserve/COVID list, Tyler Kroft will get the start at tight end for the Bills. He has not done much with his expanded role outside of a two touchdown outlier in Week 3. The Seahawks have been solid against tight ends this season and will be welcoming Jamal Adams back to the lineup this week. Avoid Kroft unless you are covering bases in a strategy that calls for 10+ lineups.
Ben Roethlisberger has been rock solid in real-life but has not been as attractive in the fantasy realm. The QB22 in fantasy points per game, Big Ben threw 10 of his touchdowns in his first four contests. In his three contests since then, he has thrown five touchdowns to three interceptions. He is averaging his lowest passing yards per game since 2008. Playing with a dominant defense and a strong running game, Big Ben hasn’t had to do much in terms of winning games himself this season.
He has a terrific matchup against a suspect Cowboys secondary this week, but the last time he faced a secondary this weak he attempted just 22 passes and threw for just one touchdown in a 38-7 rout of the Cleveland Browns. Big Ben could easily light the Cowboys up for three plus touchdowns, but it is equally likely that he has less than 20 completions, with just one or two passing touchdowns. Fade him unless you are setting multiple lineups.
Ben DiNucci, Cooper Rush, or Garrett Gilbert. Does it really matter? You don’t want any of these guys against Pittsburgh, gamescript be damned. Andy Dalton would be a fade if healthy. Heck, if Dak Prescott we’re healthy this would be one of the lone weeks to fade him.
James Conner is the RB14 fantasy points per game and has a tremendous matchup against a Cowboys defense surrendering the eighth most fantasy points to the running back position. He still battles inconsistency when playing good teams but Dallas is far from that. 10th in the league with 498 rushing yards, Conner has averaged 89 yards from scrimmage per contest, with 71.1 coming on the ground. Gamescript could propel Conner to a monster outing, but his potential chalkiness needs to be weighed when making lineup decisions.
Ezekiel Elliott is the RB9 fantasy points per game but has fallen apart fantasy wise since Dak went down. He is having the worst season of his career and has still been a top 10 back. Gamescript and a Steelers defense surrendering the 26th most (seventh fewest) fantasy points to the running back position means that Zeke is safe to fade for Week 9.
Chase Claypool has flashed his massive upside this season. He is the WR23 in fantasy points per game despite being a part-time player for the first two weeks of the season. He has the potential to go bonkers if Big Ben decides to throw the ball, but he could be adversely affected by a negative gamescript.
Diontae Johnson has been stellar when healthy and is an intriguing play against a Dallas Cowboys defense surrendering the fourth most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. He has been hurt for most of the year and has only finished four games this season. If we toss his six yard effort against the Ravens he has averaged 7.63 receptions for 76.33 receiving yards and one touchdown per game in games he has played to the end.
JuJu Smith-Schuster disappointed from Week 2 to Week 6 but has picked up his play as of late. He has seen 22 targets over his last two contests, hauling in 16 of them. The WR36 in fantasy points per game, JuJu is a solid high ceiling, low floor contrarian option for Week 9. James Washington is a distant fourth on the depth chart and can be faded this week.
There is no need to regale you with the great numbers Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb have posted this season. Cooper is the WR25 fantasy points per game, while CeeDee is the WR33. Michael Gallup has been lost in the shuffle for most of the season. The Cowboys trio has a great matchup against a Steelers secondary allowing the eighth most fantasy points to the enemy wideouts. The matchup is great, but trusting any of these receivers with the uncertainty under center is a risky proposition at best.
Dalton Shultz showed up last week but could be in tough against a Steelers defense allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points to the tight end position. He could get busy with check downs, but the smart money is on him failing to post TE1 numbers in Week 9.
Eric Ebron has a strong matchup in Week 9 against a Cowboys defense allowing the 12th most fantasy points to the tight end position. His numbers would be much better if the Steelers were losing a couple of games, but with Big Ben passing for just 232.6 passing yards per game, Ebron’s 37.6 receiving yards per game represents 16.16 percent of his yardage. Ebron is worth a look this weekend, but his low floor makes him more of a multi entry dart then someone you want if you are setting just one lineup.
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.
