Kyle Yates’ Week 1 Fantasy Projections (2021 Fantasy Football)

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Los Angeles Chargers vs Washington Football Team

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Chargers -1
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Chargers 22.75, Washington 21.75

Los Angeles Chargers

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Washington Football Team

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Quarterback

Los Angeles: Justin Herbert was a revelation last season for the Chargers and for fantasy managers around the world. After being thrown into the starting job, Herbert came out and absolutely set the world on fire with his performance in year one. While that momentum should easily carry over into year two, there’s reason to be cautious about the second-year QB heading into his week one matchup. The Washington Football Team defense is no joke. They were one of the toughest matchups (3rd fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs) in 2020 and their defense probably took an even bigger step forward this off-season. Herbert has the receiving weapons to be successful against nearly any defense, but this is a tough enough matchup where we should at least be exercising caution when plugging Herbert into our starting lineups. He should be viewed as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 against Washington.

Washington: That’s right, Fitzmagic is back! After signing with Washington this off-season, the beard is back and ready to roll heading into week one. With that being said, Ryan Fitzpatrick should only be viewed as a low-end QB2 in this tough matchup. The Chargers defense is healthy heading into 2021 and it’s loaded with playmakers that are set to make life difficult on opposing QBs. While there will be some matchups where Fitzpatrick is absolutely in the streaming conversation, this doesn’t happen to be one of them.

Running Backs

Los Angeles: There are very few players who are a more consistent fantasy option at RB than Austin Ekeler. With his role in this offense, we know exactly how much volume Ekeler is going to see as a receiver out of the backfield each week. While Washington’s a tough matchup for opposing RBs, there shouldn’t be any reason why we’d move Ekeler out of our starting lineups this week. He can be viewed as a low-end RB1 in this one. Update: Ekeler did not participate in Wednesday or Thursday’s practice, but he was out there on Friday. He might not be 100%, but he belongs in your starting lineup as a high-end RB2. Larry Rountree is a player that I’ve been hyping up all off-season saying that he has the chance to be a late-round steal if he can lock up the RB2 job in this Chargers backfield. However, we still don’t have that clarity at the time of writing. This is a situation to monitor to see which RB does take the step forward to be the compliment to Ekeler, but you’re playing with fire if you start Rountree or Justin Jackson in week one.

Washington: Are we on the verge of a top-5 fantasy season from Antonio Gibson? It seems like it’s incoming, right? After just having 33 career carries in college, Gibson came out and put the rest of the league on notice in 2020 by averaging 4.7 YPC and scoring 11 touchdowns on the ground. Everything that we have heard from Washington this off-season seems to indicate that they believe he can assume a massive workload for them this year and I’m buying into that possibility. While the Chargers defense isn’t exactly a piece-of-cake matchup right out of the gates, Gibson’s going to see plenty of work that will sustain his fantasy output. He can be viewed as a low-end RB1 in week one. JD McKissic was fantastic for fantasy football last season and he actually led the entire league in targets at the RB position in 2020. However, that doesn’t mean that it’s going to be the same this time around. Alex Smith was a big reason for McKissic’s success last year with his propensity to check the ball down and Fitzpatrick isn’t exactly known for that same thing. McKissic will still see work in this backfield, but not enough to warrant consideration as a starter for your fantasy football lineup.

Wide Receivers

Los Angeles: Do you remember when we had injury concerns about Keenan Allen? That feels like a lifetime ago when we were so concerned about whether or not Allen was going to make it through an entire season and he’s now one of the most consistent options in all of fantasy. Allen’s going to see his guaranteed volume in this offense and he’s absolutely a safe start every single week because of this fact. However, his YPR is starting to tick down over the past few seasons and we might be nearing the end of his top-5 potential. He’s still an extremely safe and reliable option for your lineup each week, despite what promises to be a tough matchup against Washington’s defense. Allen can be viewed as a low-end WR1 this week. Mike Williams had some hype coming into draft season, but it seemingly died down as the start of the season drew closer. As he always has been, Williams is a boom-or-bust FLEX option for your lineup that absolutely has the potential to explode due to his talent. However, in a matchup against 2020’s 3rd toughest matchup for opposing WRs, it’s probably best to look elsewhere.

Washington: After playing with a lackluster group of QBs during his first few NFL seasons – and still producing impressive numbers – McLaurin now has a competent option behind center to throw him the ball! Whatever your opinion is of Fitzpatrick, there’s no denying that he can absolutely sustain fantasy value for whoever he deems is his WR1. While there are some talented receiving options in Washington, McLaurin is the unquestioned WR1 in this offense. The Chargers’ defense – particularly the secondary – looks a little different now than it has previously, but it still promises to be one of the tougher matchups in the league. Regardless, McLaurin is an extremely safe option that gets dinged slightly because of the defense he’s facing. He can be viewed as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2. It’s unknown whether or not Curtis Samuel will suit up for this matchup at the time of writing, but he’s not someone that we should be considering for our starting lineups if we can avoid it. He’s missed plenty of time this off-season rehabbing and he wasn’t drafted highly in consensus ADP. You most likely have a better option you can pivot to for a FLEX even if he does suit up. Update: Samuel has been put on the short-term IR in Washington. At this time, Dyami Brown is not worth starting in your lineup.

Tight Ends

Los Angeles: Jared Cook had his moments of being productive in 2020 for the New Orleans Saints, but it’s highly unlikely that he ever establishes himself as a locked-and-loaded TE1 this season in LA. He falls into the same camp that many other TEs do in the NFL, which is where he’ll need to find the end zone in order for you to feel happy that you started him.

Washington: Did you know that Logan Thomas had the most routes run at the TE position in the NFL last season? In fact, his 609 routes run last year was the highest mark in the NFL since Jordan Cameron had 622 in 2013. While there’s certainly more competition for targets this year in Washington with all the off-season moves they’ve made, Thomas is still going to be utilized heavily as a receiver in this offense. There’s more than enough opportunity for him to provide low-end TE1 numbers this week and moving forward.

FantasyProjection Buster: Justin Herbert over-exceeded expectations last year routinely and there’s the possibility that he does it again here even in a tough matchup.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bills -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Steelers 21, Bills 27.5

Pittsburgh Steelers

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Buffalo Bills

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Quarterback

Pittsburgh: The Steelers certainly did not want to see Ben Roethlisberger throw the ball 608 times again like he did last season at his age and they made a strong move in the NFL Draft to rectify that mistake. The investment in a high-profile RB like Harris should certainly take some pressure off of Ben and he shouldn’t have to constantly air the ball out nearly every single play. With Ben’s playstyle – which is a nice way of pointing out his lack of mobility – volume needs to be there in order to push him into the top-12 consideration. That’s most likely not going to be there in this offense now – at least to the extent it has been in previous years – which puts a cap on what Ben’s fantasy output can be. He’s best viewed as a low-end QB2 in this matchup.

Buffalo: Josh Allen was a true league-winner last season with how he emerged and smashed his draft value on route to an overall QB1 fantasy finish. The offense completely changed under Brian Daboll in 2020 and Allen was able to let it loose and take advantage of his God-given throwing ability. Heading into 2021, Allen has all the pieces to the puzzle back in place from last year and this offense should just continue to roll. The Steelers were the second toughest matchup for opposing QBs in 2020, but that shouldn’t scare us off of starting Allen in week one. You spent a premium pick to get him onto your roster and now it’s time to see if he can repeat his level of dominance.

Running Backs

Pittsburgh: Everything surrounding Najee Harris this off-season has signaled that he is in line for a massive workload in this Steelers offense. He has the size and skill set to be a 350-touch back in the NFL and the Steelers might push those numbers in his rookie season. The Bills were middle-of-the-pack last year in terms of fantasy points allowed to the RB position, but they were surrendering the sixth-most rushing touchdowns per game on average with 1.3. The volume is going to be there every single week that Harris is fully healthy and the opportunity to find the end zone is present as well due to the matchup. Harris is a no-brainer RB1 start right out of the gates.

Buffalo: While the offense in Buffalo is so potent that it would lead to fantasy football gold if the utilization was right, none of the RBs in this backfield see enough work to push themselves into start-worthy consideration. Zack Moss has the skillset to take over the starting job completely, but the coaching staff seems content on using him and Devin Singletary in a rotational role. With Allen’s presence around the goal-line, there’s very little temptation to playing either starting RB in fantasy football any given week. We’ll see if the utilization changes in this new season, but you shouldn’t be looking to start either one of these backs if you can avoid it. Both Moss and Singletary land as RB4s in my initial week one rankings.

Wide Receivers

Pittsburgh: Yes, Diontae Johnson had 14 drops last season according to PFF. However, we should be focusing more on his 144 targets in 15 games played. The chemistry and connection he has with Big Ben is real and it leads to an incredible target share when he’s healthy and on the field. While the Bills were the fourth toughest matchup for opposing WRs last season, Johnson should see plenty enough volume to sustain low-end WR2 production. Chase Claypool was a revelation last season and put up insane numbers for a first-year wideout in this offense. While his production tailed off a bit towards the end of the year, Claypool seems poised to make a huge second-year leap. The matchup isn’t the most favorable for Claypool this week, but Johnson should draw coverage from Tre White, which will leave Claypool operating against Levi Wallace. While Wallace is a solid corner, he’s going to have his hands full trying to contain a player of Claypool’s size with his skillset. Claypool can be viewed as a high-end WR3 with tremendous upside. Juju Smith-Schuster was a bit of a disappointment last season for fantasy managers that spent a higher pick on him. While the volume was there – along with the touchdown production – his yardage fell off a cliff compared to two seasons prior. Juju has gone from 1,426 receiving yards in 2018 to 831 in 2020. He only averaged 8.6 YPC last season with an abysmal ADOT of 5.8. While some other receivers in the league can thrive and create off of a 5.8 ADOT, Juju doesn’t have the skillset to create yards after the catch. In fact, he only had 404 total yards after the catch last season on 97 receptions. Based on what we’ve seen in the pre-season, it seems like he’s going to continue to be used in a role that operates close to the line of scrimmage. This isn’t what fantasy managers want to see and it likely means that Smith-Schuster’s going to disappoint again this year if the passing volume isn’t as high as it has been in previous seasons. Smith-Schuster should be viewed as a FLEX option this week in a tough matchup.

Buffalo: Stefon Diggs absolutely won people fantasy championships in 2020. After being drafted around the WR20 off the board last season, Diggs exploded and ended the season as the overall WR3. His connection with Allen was on full display right out of the gate and it could even get better after a full off-season working together this year too. While the Steelers secondary is a solid group that should make life difficult on Diggs and the remainder of the receiving options in Buffalo, there’s no way we’re not starting the ultra-talented wideout this week. Diggs can be viewed as a top-5 option against Pittsburgh. While Diggs should soak up targets in this offense, there’s room for another WR to step up and produce for fantasy purposes. That option just might be second-year WR, Gabriel Davis. Davis showed off his talent last season on multiple occasions on his way to a 35-599-7 season and there’s an opportunity for him to grow into a larger role this year too. While there’s some other competition for targets, the Bills run a ton of 3-WR sets where they’re rotating through receiving options even throughout a drive. It’s a bit of a tougher matchup, so Davis shouldn’t be viewed as a must-start option, but he’s a tremendous FLEX play that comes with incredible upside. Cole Beasley has been in the news for a lot of other reasons this off-season, but we can’t forget how valuable of a role he plays for this offense to help keep the chains moving. In a Full PPR format, Beasley’s a fine FLEX option that should give you a safe floor in this matchup. However, outside of that, he’s probably best left on your bench or on the league’s waiver wire. Emmanuel Sanders is coming over to Buffalo to help continue this offense’s dominance with his veteran presence and route-running acumen. Sanders has already proven that he was a valuable pickup for the Bills this pre-season and he should be a steady part of this rotation at WR. However, at his age, he comes with very little upside. He falls into the low-end FLEX conversation that might give you a safe floor, but we shouldn’t be expecting too much from him in this one.

Tight Ends

Pittsburgh: While this offense is potent enough that a TE could absolutely be fantasy relevant in it, it’s unlikely that we ever feel truly confident starting one of Eric Ebron or Pat Freiermuth this season. Unless one of these players truly steps forward and takes over this job, they’re going to cannibalize each other from a fantasy perspective. I suggest looking elsewhere in your 1TE leagues.

Buffalo: None of the Bills TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: If Freiermuth ends up starting in 11-personnel, he’ll have more opportunities to see targets. This would eliminate the even split between him and Ebron and Freiermuth would become instantly fantasy relevant.

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San Francisco 49ers vs Detroit Lions

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: 49ers -7.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45 points
Implied Vegas point totals: 49ers 26.5, Lions 19

San Francisco 49ers

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Detroit Lions

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Quarterback

San Francisco: All signs point to Jimmy Garoppolo starting for the 49ers in week one, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s on the streaming radar. There’s a high probability that the 49ers lean on their run game in this one the same way they did against Green Bay in the NFC Championship game two years ago. He can be viewed as a low-end QB2 at best this week.

Detroit: After throwing for just 42 touchdowns to 29 interceptions in one of the league’s most QB-friendly offenses, Goff was traded away and has now landed in Detroit. This situation is not exactly the same level of QB-friendly that LA was and Goff is absolutely going to struggle this year. It’s highly unlikely that we’re ever talking about Goff as a fantasy-relevant QB this season.

Running Backs

San Francisco: Can we all acknowledge and recognize that Raheem Mostert is going to run for a minimum of 150 yards and 2 touchdowns in this game? While that might be stretching it a bit, the Detroit Lions aren’t going to have an answer for Mostert and this 49ers rushing attack. The Lions are entering a full-on rebuild and their defense is in shambles. They tied for the most fantasy points allowed to opposing RBs last season with 26.7 per game and it seems like we could see more of the same this time around too. While there are obvious concerns about Mostert’s durability for the entire season, he’s absolutely a rock-solid high-end RB2 start in this matchup. Trey Sermon has been talked about plenty this off-season as a potential league-winner, but he’s likely going to need Mostert to miss time with an injury before we discuss him in that light. However, this is a matchup where both Sermon and Mostert could feast. One thing we know about Kyle Shanahan is that he is going to run the ball time and time again if it’s working and it’s going to be working extremely well in this matchup against the Lions that allowed 134.9 rushing yards per game last season. Sermon has some appeal as a mid-range RB3 with upside here.

Detroit: D’Andre Swift is reportedly working his way back from a groin injury and is currently questionable to play in this matchup at the time of writing. Even if he does play, it sounds unlikely that he’s going to be at 100%, so that’s important to take into account. Against the defense that allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs last season, Swift shouldn’t be viewed as anything more than a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 with his current injury status. Jamaal Williams is coming over to Detroit from Green Bay this off-season and he seems poised to carry a significant workload for this offense, which puts a damper on a lot of the excitement we have for Swift and what he can be for fantasy football. With Swift likely to be less than 100% – if he even suits up – Williams should see an uptick in work this week. However, against a defense that allowed only 106.4 rushing yards per game last year, Williams is nothing more than a mid-range RB3 that doesn’t present much upside if Swift plays. If Swift sits, Williams becomes a high-end RB3 based purely on volume.

Wide Receivers

San Francisco: Brandon Aiyuk is dealing with a hamstring injury at the time of writing, but he seems set to suit up in this one. While there’s the potential that the 49ers could just run the ball 40+ times in this game and only throw the ball 10 times, Aiyuk’s still worth starting as a low-end WR2. The Lions allowed the most fantasy points to opposing WRs last season and this is a matchup that you’re going to want to target throughout the year. Deebo Samuel has all the talent in the world, but we know how this offense wants to operate and center around their run game. With Kittle healthy and on the field – plus Aiyuk’s emergence as the WR1 in this offense – there’s very little consistency left over for Samuel. He might have some big games here or there, but trying to predict when they come is going to be a nightmare this season. Because of this, Samuel’s best viewed as a FLEX option at best every single week. You can live with his up-and-down performances in that spot, but trying to trust him as anything more than that is a recipe for disaster.

Detroit: While someone will certainly emerge as a viable fantasy option in this receiving corps eventually, it’s going to be near impossible to predict which one is worth starting in week one. The 49ers’ defense is going to clamp down on this passing game, which makes any of Tyrell Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or Quintez Cephus a low-end FLEX play at best. Based on pre-draft ADP, you didn’t draft any of these players to be starters, so you should be able to sit them on your bench and see what happens in week one. I would recommend looking elsewhere for your starting roster.

Tight Ends

San Francisco: George Kittle has been a bit of a disappointment each of the past two seasons with only 22 games out of a possible 32, but he’s absolutely dynamic when he’s available. The Lions simply do not have anyone who’s going to be able to run with Kittle all game long and he should put up some fantastic numbers in week one. The only concern will be whether or not the 49ers need to throw the ball much to win this one, but you’re still starting Kittle with zero questions asked.

Detroit: TJ Hockenson has been talked about plenty this entire off-season as a potential star for fantasy purposes. However, we should be exercising caution right out of the gates with this matchup against the 49ers. San Francisco was the second toughest matchup in all of football last year for opposing TEs. They allowed a mere 4.8 fantasy points per game and absolutely shut down the opposition. With Fred Warner back patrolling the second-level, Hockenson’s going to have a rough go of it in week one. The volume will still – most likely – be there, but we shouldn’t be expecting top-5 production from him here.

FantasyProjection Buster: We could realistically see Garopollo throw the ball 10 times in this matchup. If that’s the case, everyone who is not an RB on San Francisco will fail to reach my projections.

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Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

Date/Time: Sunday September 12, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Vikings -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 47.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Vikings 25.5, Bengals 22.5

Minnesota Vikings

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Cincinnati Bengals

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Quarterback

Minnesota: While Kirk Cousins is absolutely underrated as a passer, he has to have ridiculous efficiency in order to sustain his fantasy value. With a receiving duo like Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, it’s absolutely possible, but it’s still a scary thing to bet on. The Vikings’ offense wants to be known for running the football and only throwing the ball to keep the defense honest. Cook should run wild in this matchup, but there’s still an opportunity for Cousins to be a fine streaming option. The Bengals were the sixth-worst team in the NFL last year in terms of Defensive DVOA and they allowed an average of 18.5 fantasy points per game to the QB position. If you’re in a pinch already and need a streaming QB to pivot to, Cousins is a fine option.

Cincinnati: This is going to be a game that I have my eyes on throughout Sunday. What version of Joe Burrow will we see on the football field? After having his entire knee destroyed last season, Burrow has made a shockingly fast recovery and he’s set to start against the Vikings defense this week. Can Burrow be a top-12 fantasy QB in this offense? Undoubtedly. However, this is not the week that we want to plug him into our lineups confidently. Even though the matchup is favorable – the Vikings allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt last season – Burrow should be viewed as a streaming option only. His performance here will have a direct effect on how we feel about him and the rest of the offense moving forward though, so it’s worth tuning in.

Running Backs

Minnesota: There’s honestly very little to analyze and evaluate in this matchup for Dalvin Cook. He’s one of the best fantasy options out there and he’s essentially matchup-proof. Start him with confidence as a top-3 option in week one.

Cincinnati: Everything is finally pointing up for Joe Mixon in Cincinnati. The QB play is better, the offensive line is improved, and Gio isn’t hanging over his shoulder to steal third-down work. While there are durability concerns for Mixon, his workload when he’s healthy is right up there with CMC, Cook, Kamara, etc. If Mixon had been put on IR right when his injury occurred last year, we would have a completely different perception of him than what we have right now. But because Zac Taylor constantly played this game of hinting that he would be back the next week, only for him to remain inactive, we have a sour taste in our mouths. Go get some mouthwash, rinse it out, and start Mixon as a borderline top-5 option this week against Minnesota. The Vikings allowed an average of 21.3 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs last season and Mixon could easily hit that mark in this matchup.

Wide Receivers

Minnesota: Man, what a rookie season from Justin Jefferson! He came out and caught the league’s attention almost immediately with his standout performances. He was drafted as a top-10 receiver, so you’re obviously starting him in this matchup against Cincinnati. The Bengals secondary won’t have an answer for Jefferson and this passing attack and he should hit the ground running this season. Adam Thielen was a divisive player throughout draft season for many analysts. While Thielen has incredible chemistry with Cousins, he dramatically outperformed expectations last season. Based on Expected TD Rate, Thielen should have had 5.5 receiving touchdowns last season on his 925 receiving yards. He finished with 14! Thielen’s yardage numbers might never be what it was a couple of years ago, but he has an excellent chance of finding the end zone any given week. He’s worth plugging into your lineup as a low-end WR2.

Cincinnati: Tee Higgins got his opportunity last season and he never looked back. Even without Burrow at QB, Higgins was still getting the job done for fantasy football. This season, there’s some other competition for targets here, but the passing volume of this offense is more than enough to sustain all three Bengals’ WRs. In this matchup against Minnesota, Higgins should have a fantastic outing. The Vikings allowed the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WRs last year and they’re going to be a matchup to target again this season. While Patrick Peterson could cover Higgins, Peterson’s not the same level of corner as he has been in previous years. Start Higgins with confidence as a mid-range WR2. Can Ja’Marr Chase be dominant in the NFL? Absolutely. Could it take a little bit for him to reach that level? Potentially. While the matchup indicates that Chase should be a successful fantasy option in week one, it’s difficult to start him as anything more than a WR3 this week. He’s struggled with drops and concentration issues throughout training camp and the pre-season, so we can’t be completely confident starting him right out of the gates. Tyler Boyd’s proven that he can be an extremely reliable and safe option for your fantasy lineups and he gets a solid matchup here right away. There’s no reason why he shouldn’t be viewed as a mid-range WR3 that gets a bump in Full PPR formats.

Tight Ends

Minnesota: None of the Vikings TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

Cincinnati: None of the Bengals TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

FantasyProjection Buster: If Joe Burrow comes back and looks a bit rusty in this game, the whole offense could falter and fail to reach expectations.