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Overvalued & Undervalued Players: Week 7 (2021 Fantasy Football)

Oct 24, 2021
Derek Carr

Oh, you already know what this intro is about: Byes.

Byes. Byes. Byes.

If you didn’t read that in the tone of the NSYNC song, I just lost the slightest bit of respect for you.

There are six NFL teams on Bye this week, including some fantasy juggernauts in the Bills, Cowboys, Chargers, and Vikings. The others are Jacksonville and Pittsburgh which still offer a handful of starters. In other words, byes made this week very ugly.

Since there are six teams not playing, a lot of the players have rankings that seem way too high for them on the surface: Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB – LAR) as RB4, Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) as WR6, and Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN) as QB8, among others. I’m actually fine with those players, though, so that isn’t a spoiler for the below.

Rankings are from the FantasyPros ECR and based on Half-PPR scoring.

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Quarterbacks

Overvalued
Derek Carr (QB – LV): QB9
Other than a game against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC), the Eagles have held opposing QBs to 21 fantasy points or less this season, and two of them were absolute dominance over Matt Ryan (QB – ATL) and Sam Darnold (QB – CAR) who combined for just shy of 14 fantasy points in their meetings against the Eagles. Carr has seen more volume than usual this year, but this feels like a game where the Eagles put their foot down. Further, Darren Waller (TE – LV) is questionable which is obviously massive for Carr’s production. 

Undervalued
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): QB21
Garoppolo is returning from injury, but Trey Lance (QB – SF) has been ruled out of this game as well, so there is no chance of Garoppolo getting benched for the emerging rookie…this week at least. The Colts are generally regarded as having a good defense, but they’ve allowed the seventh-most points to opposing quarterbacks, and they’ve allowed at least two passing touchdowns every week. Garoppolo is a good option if you’re desperate with quarterbacks on bye.

Running Backs

Overvalued
Leonard Fournette (RB – TB): RB6
Fournette seems to have a lock on the RB1 job in Tampa Bay, but a top six week is a little rich for me. The Bucs can always throw a curveball with their running personnel, and Chicago has been solid against the run this season: they’ve only allowed three rushing touchdowns to running backs this season, and they’ve held opposing running back corps to less than 19 fantasy points in four of six weeks.

Undervalued
James Conner (RB – ARI): RB15
The Cardinals running back situation has been pretty messy this season, but a game against the Texans can straighten all of that out. The game script should yield plenty of running for the Cardinals, and Chase Edmonds (RB – ARI) being banged up should help Conner see more action than normal. Conner hasn’t been amazing this season, but he has been serviceable at a position that can always be a struggle. Use him with confidence on a nasty bye week slate.

Wide Receivers

Overvalued
DeAndre Hopkins (WR – ARI): WR4
This is pretty much the inverse of the Conner pick above. The Cardinals likely won’t need to throw a ton, and Hopkins has struggled to carve out his usual massive slice of the receiving pie this season even in heavy passing volume games. He has yet to break 90 yards receiving, and he doesn’t have double-digit targets in a game yet this season. His easiest route to production is by scoring a touchdown, which he has done six times in six games this year, but temper expectations.

Undervalued
Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA): WR18
Waddle has definitely had a turbulent start to his rookie year, but the stars may be aligning. The rest of the offense has been very banged up, and Waddle is coming off of a 13-target, 10-reception performance last week. The only teams that the Falcons haven’t allowed multiple wide receiver touchdowns to are the Giants and Jets, and they may not be able to score multiple touchdowns against anyone anyway. Waddle is quickly becoming a strong flex option.

Tight Ends

Undervalued
C.J. Uzomah (TE – CIN): TE15
It’s a very gross tight end week, but Uzomah seems like one of the best streaming options. The Ravens are the second-worst in the league against fantasy tight ends, and they’ve allowed touchdowns to opposing tight ends in four of six games this season. Uzomah hasn’t seen much volume, but he does have three scores over the last three weeks. It’s risky, but aren’t they all really?

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Donald Gibson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Donald, check out his archive and follow him @DonaldGibsonFF.

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