Thanksgiving is in the rear-view mirror, providing us a three-game appetizer for Sunday’s 10-game main slate. Below, I look at each game. Further, for the sake of clarity from now on, when I refer to a game’s script as being neutral, I use an offensive scoring margin ranging from trailing by seven points to leading by seven points.
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Week 12 Matchups
Game: New York Jets at Houston Texans
Spread: HOU -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Jets Analysis: One rookie, Zach Wilson, returns while another, Michael Carter, is out. According to Pro Football Focus, in Week 1 through Week 5, when Wilson was healthy, Elijah Moore was second on the Jets in routes (102) and tied for second in targets (20). However, Moore played in only four of those games. Further, the two weren't on the same page, with Moore securing only eight receptions for 66 scoreless yards. However, he's come on strong lately. Out of 69 receivers targeted at least 10 times since Week 9, Moore is fifth with 2.77 yards per route run (Y/RR).
Meanwhile, Ty Johnson stands to benefit from Carter's injury. Still, it's unclear how the backfield distribution will shake out. Regardless, Johnson is a quality receiving back, hauling in 2.5 receptions for 27.1 receiving yards per game. He's the best bet to get the nod in the passing game. As a result, he's an enticing bargain play on DraftKings.
Texans Analysis: According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jets allow 13.91 yards per reception to receivers. Further, according to Sharp Football Stats, Gang Green is coughing up the highest average explosive pass rate (12%). Thus, I'm interested in a pair of Houston's wideouts.
First, Brandin Cooks is an alpha receiver that has the attention of Tyrod Taylor. The veteran wideout has team-highs in targets (26), receptions (17), receiving yards (245), and air yards (277) on Taylor's 111 pass attempts this year.
Meanwhile, Nico Collins is an intriguing punt at DraftKings. The big-bodied rookie wide receiver averaged 19.7 yards per reception in his final collegiate season, per Sports-Reference. His vertical ability hasn't resulted in many big plays in the NFL yet, but his average depth of target of 10.2 yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus, is deep enough to do damage against New York's suspect pass defense. Further, Collins is an attractive, tall target in the red zone, and I thought his end-zone target that was ruled incomplete should have been overturned to a touchdown on review. Nevertheless, it's a positive for Collins' outlook that Taylor targeted him in the end zone. At only $200 more than the minimum salary on DraftKings, I can talk myself into considering him in GPPs.
Finally, take a look at the salary difference between websites for Houston's defense. I won't touch them on FanDuel. However, they're the top punt option against New York's dreadful offense as home favorites against their implied total of only 20.75.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: TB -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 53.0 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: We are projecting Tom Brady as the QB1 at DraftKings and FanDuel in Week 12. Also, he has the highest value score among quarterbacks at FanDuel. The G.O.A.T. is putting together a strong case for MVP, leading the NFL in passing yards per game (317.7) and touchdown passes (29). The Bucs pass at the second-highest rate (67%) in neutral game scripts, according to Sharp Football Stats. Thankfully, that's the best way to beat the Colts. According to Football Outsiders, Indianapolis is second in rush defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and 20th in pass defense DVOA.
Indy's pass-defense deficiencies thrust any of Tampa Bay's healthy receivers into daily fantasy consideration. The last part is the kicker, as all three of their top wideouts, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown are nursing various ailments. In addition, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Colts allow the fifth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers.
Finally, don't sleep on Rob Gronkowski. He made an immediate impact in his return to the field last week. In Week 11, Gronk ran 28 routes, netting eight targets, resulting in six receptions for 71 receiving yards. Brady and his long-time running mate didn't skip a beat from their early-season excellence, and Gronk should keep cooking with gasoline in a fantasy-friendly matchup for tight ends. As a result, he is projected to be the TE6 at DraftKings and TE5 at FanDuel this week.
Colts Analysis: According to head coach Bruce Arians, run-stuffing stud Vita Vea "should be good to go" this week. Vea's return is great for Tampa Bay's elite run defense (fourth in rush defense DVOA). However, Jonathan Taylor is a freak show, evidenced by leading the league in rushing yards (1,122), rushing touchdowns (13), and steamrolling the Bills for 204 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns last week. He's bested 100 yards from scrimmage nine of 11 games this year. Thus, Taylor is an elite GPP option in a projected back-and-forth shootout, despite a tricky matchup.
It's also possible Tampa Bay's stout run defense forces Indy to air it out a little more, which would be a boon for Michael Pittman Jr.'s outlook. According to Sports Info Solutions, Pittman is 19th in target share (23.3%). In addition, the second-year receiver has scored five touchdowns with per-game averages of 5.2 receptions and 68.4 receiving yards. Finally, he is popping in the lineup optimizer, boasting the third-highest value score at FanDuel and highest value score at DraftKings among wide receivers. Thus, he's a great pick in all game types.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Spread: PHI -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is unfair. He's essentially bolstering running back production with passing work. The second-year quarterback averages 209.6 passing yards and 56.2 rushing yards per game, scampering for eight touchdowns and tossing 13 touchdowns. The matchup isn't too shabby for the dual-threat quarterback, either. Big Blue is 11th in pass defense DVOA and 30th in rush defense DVOA. We project him to be the QB2 in scoring this week.
Philadelphia's offense has morphed into a run-heavy attack. Nevertheless, Dallas Goedert has been balling since Zach Ertz was traded. Since Week 7, Goedert has tied for the ninth-most targets (25) among tight ends, tying for fifth in receptions (19) and ranking third in receiving yards (275). As a result, he's a top-five tight end this week.
Giants Analysis: The Giants relieved former offensive coordinator Jason Garrett of his duties, much to the delight of Big Blue's fan base. Still, Daniel Jones is mired in a funk, and their pass-catching corps might become more crowded this week with Sterling Shepard on the mend. Kicking Garrett to the curb should be a net positive the rest of the year. However, this offense's ceiling is too low for me to advocate embracing volatility and taking stabs at the uncertainty of the pass-catching hierarchy with Freddie Kitchens as the new offensive coordinator.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Spread: CAR -2.0 Points
Over/Under: 42.0 Points
Panthers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey has played five injury-free games, blowing past 100 yards from scrimmage in each. Last week, he returned to pre-injury playing time, playing 90% of Carolina's offensive snaps, per our snap counts. In addition to piling up yardage, CMC has reeled in four or more receptions in his healthy games. Understandably, we project him as RB1 at both daily fantasy providers.
With competent play at quarterback for the Panthers last week, D.J. Moore posted a 5-50-1 line on seven targets. The fourth-year wideout has seven or more targets in every game. Still, the most recent data point is the most relevant given the quarterback change.
The quarterback change in question featured Cam Newton starting for the Panthers for the first time in his return to the team that drafted him. The dual-threat quarterback reminded gamers what he could do at his best. Newton rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown while passing for 189 yards and two scores. FanDuel reasonably raised his price, but DraftKings continues to underprice him, making him the best value among quarterbacks there.
Finally, the Panthers have an eye-catching advantage that should lead to fantasy points for the defense. Pro Football Focus has graded the Dolphins as the third-worst pass-blocking team. Meanwhile, according to Pro-Football-Reference, Carolina has generated quarterback pressure (28.8%) at the second-highest rate. Also, they rank fifth in pass defense DVOA. As a result, I expect Carolina's defense to wreak havoc on Miami's offense.
Dolphins Analysis: I'm fading Miami's offense due to the offensive line issues I highlighted above. However, the defense is a steal on FanDuel. The Dolphins are tied for the eighth-most turnovers forced this year (16), and the Panthers have their own pass-blocking issues, earning Pro Football Focus's seventh-worst pass-blocking grade. Finally, Miami's defense is rounding into great form, allowing only 36 points, 956 yards of offense, and forcing seven turnovers in their previous three games. As a result, our lineup optimizer awards them the highest value score among defenses on FanDuel in Week 12.
Game: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Spread: NE -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Titans Analysis: Tennessee's offense has been stuck in the mud without Derrick Henry. They have recorded 194 total yards of offense, 264, and 420 in their last three games. Sure, the 420 total yards of offense might suggest they're snapping out of their funk, but it resulted in only 13 points and accompanied five turnovers in a loss to the lowly Texans. So, this is an offense to avoid presently.
Patriots Analysis: Since Week 9 (Tennessee's first game without Henry), Ryan Tannehill's nine turnover-worthy plays are the most in the NFL. He is also taking sacks at the eighth-highest rate (7.8%) this season among qualified quarterbacks. In addition, the Patriots are second in total defense DVOA, eighth in rush defense DVOA, and second in pass defense DVOA. So, it's likely to get worse before it gets better for Tennessee's struggling offense. Therefore, it's easy to understand why we project the Patriots as the top-scoring defense this week. Defense is volatile, though. So, I don't suggest firing more than a bullet or two at most on them in GPPs if you're hellbent on using them.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Steelers Analysis: The Bengals aren't the easiest team to run on. However, they've coughed up the most receptions (76) to running backs. Of course, Najee Harris benefited from Cincinnati's defense ceding receptions to running backs back in Week 3, when he hauled in 14 of 19 targets for 102 scoreless yards. The rookie running back also rushed for 40 yards on 14 rush attempts. I'm disinterested in using him on FanDuel's half-point PPR format, but he's in the mix for consideration on DraftKings full-point PPR platform.
Diontae Johnson is another standout option from the Steelers. He has double-digit targets in seven of nine games. The target-hog wideout epitomizes what it means to be consistent, catching at least five passes in all but one game, and recording at least 67 scrimmage yards or scoring a touchdown in every game in all nine games he has played.
Finally, Pat Freiermuth has carved out a significant role in Pittsburgh's passing game in his rookie season. The second-round pick has six or more targets and four or more receptions in five straight contests, scoring four touchdowns as well.
Bengals Analysis: Understandably, the Bengals didn't immediately thrust too much on Joe Burrow's plate in his return from reconstructive knee surgery. However, since Week 4, when in neutral game scripts, Cincinnati passes at the fifth-highest rate (63%). Burrow's previous two games leave something to be desired since he passed for only 430 yards and one touchdown. Nonetheless, his sophomore year has been more good than bad, evidenced by eight games with multiple passing touchdowns and six with more than 260 passing yards. The Steelers might be getting reinforcements back on defense, but Burrow efficiently carved Pittsburgh up like a Thanksgiving turkey back in Week 3. Thus, I'm on board with using him in GPPs.
Ja'Marr Chase is his top stacking partner. The rookie is already asserting himself as one of the top receivers in the NFL. According to Pro Football Focus, out of 72 receivers targeted at least 30 times this season, Chase is seventh with 2.52 Y/RR. Chase is also fifth in yards per target (11.0 Y/Tgt) and receiving yards per game (86.7) and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (eight). As a result, we project Chase to finish as the WR5 at both daily providers this week.
Tee Higgins was awful last week, reeling in only two receptions for 15 yards on three targets. Still, he had 29 targets, 17 receptions, and 237 receiving yards in the three previous games. Cincinnati's offense has enough mouths to feed that sometimes a stinker is bound to happen. So, you should forgive Higgins for his underwhelming showing last week. Our optimizers certainly are, as he has the seventh-highest value score at FanDuel and second-highest value score at DraftKings for wide receivers.
The last fantasy consideration from the Bengals is their defense, namely at FanDuel. They have the cheapest defense at FanDuel, despite being favored at home against a mediocre offense. The Bengals held Pittsburgh to 10 points and 342 total yards, forcing two turnovers and sacking Ben Roethlisberger four times on the road back in Week 3.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: ATL -2.0 Points
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Falcons Analysis: Cordarrelle Patterson has been a limited participant in practices on an extended week following last week's Thursday Night Football game. If he suits up, I'm intrigued by the hybrid player in GPPs. Among all players targeted at least 30 times this year, Patterson is second with 3.22 Y/RR. Further, among running backs, he has run the sixth-most routes in the slot (29), third-most routes inline (nine), and most aligned wide (64). So, it's not hyperbole when I referred to him as a hybrid player.
Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts is a hybrid in his own right. The rookie tight end is primarily used as a jumbo wideout, playing the third-most snaps wide (112) and eighth-most from the slot (167) among tight ends. However, he has run 65 routes aligned inline. So, the Falcons are using him as a traditional tight end to some extent. Pitts hasn't been consistent week to week, with three games of 35 receiving yards or fewer. However, the highs are high, with a 9-119-1 and 7-163-0 line on his ledger. Pitts' upside is worthy of GPP consideration. Our optimizer is projecting a TE2 finish for Pitts at both daily fantasy providers this week.
Jaguars Analysis: The Jaguars want to run more than the league average when treated to a neutral game script. Unfortunately, they've often been forced to play catch-up. However, that doesn't project to be the case this week, setting the stage for a yeoman's effort from James Robinson. Even while nursing minor injuries last week, J-Rob handled 63% of the team's offensive snaps. If he's a little further ahead in recovery from his ailment, he could return to a 70-plus% snap share in a mouthwatering matchup. The Falcons allow the fourth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to running backs. Robinson stands out as a nifty value at DraftKings, where he owns the fourth-highest value score among backs.
Dan Arnold flopped last week, failing to net even a single target. Nevertheless, his underlying usage remained strong. He has caught four passes or more with at least 60 receiving yards in four of his last six games on the Jaguars. There aren't any full-blown punts at tight end I love, leaving Arnold as the cheapest one I'm willing to use this week.
Game: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
Spread: LAC -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Chargers Analysis: If not for Taylor's touchdown outburst last week, Austin Ekeler would have been the talk of the fantasy community. Sure, he rightfully received ample praise for a do-it-all showing against the Steelers in which he totaled 115 scrimmage yards, snagged six receptions, and scored four touchdowns. Ekeler's Week 11 showing illustrates his ceiling. Yet, he's also averaging 97.6 scrimmage yards per game, 4.5 receptions per game, and has scored 13 touchdowns. Thus, he's a weekly stud with a high floor and cathedral-high ceiling. He's projected as this week's RB4 on FanDuel and the RB2 on DraftKings.
Sure, Ekeler's blow-up game was the best showing for the Chargers last week. Nevertheless, the Chargers as a whole put on an offensive clinic in Week 11, scoring 41 points. Justin Herbert is having a boom-or-bust sophomore campaign, making him more of a GPP option than a cash games selection.
The top pass-catching option is super-reliable Keenan Allen. He's averaging 7.4 receptions and 81.0 receiving yards per game. Further, he's amassed at least 75 receiving yards in seven of 10 games and hauled in seven receptions and eight receptions in two of the three games he fell short of 75 yards.
Meanwhile, it's been a rollercoaster ride with Mike Williams this year. First, the fifth-year pro came out of the blocks hot. Then, unfortunately, he endured a slump when he reverted to a vertical-only option in the passing attack. Thankfully, it appears he's settling into a happy medium. In the Chargers' last three games, Williams has a palatable average depth of target of 7.4 yards, making him less volatile than when it ballooned to 15.6 yards from Week 4 through Week 8. To that point, Williams' 5-97-1 line on six targets last week was his best game since Week 5. He's not a must-use player, but I'm encouraged by his target-depth trend, putting him in the GPP mix.
Broncos Analysis: Could the Broncos come out of their bye and tilt the backfield distribution scale toward their exciting rookie runner? Maybe! In Week 10, Javonte Williams played a season-high 57% of the offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon III played a season-low 43% of the offensive snaps. Gordon has played well enough to merit retaining a role in the offense. However, Williams offers more juice. According to Pro Football Focus, among running backs with at least 50 carries, Williams is tied for fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.67 YCO/A). In addition, he is tied for eighth in 10-plus yard rushes (18) and third in missed tackles forced (38).
Finally, this is a perfect matchup for the rookie producing the best game of his young career. The Chargers are dead last in rush defense DVOA. Additionally, they've ceded the most rushing yards (1,199) to running backs at a blistering 4.67 yards per rush attempt. As a result, Williams makes a lot of sense as a GPP selection, speculating on him commanding a more significant role in the offense out of the bye.
Game: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers
Spread: LAR -1.0 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Rams Analysis: This is probably the most anticipated game of the week. However, unlike many previous contests donning that distinction, it's not projected to shoot out. Since the last highly-anticipated shootouts failed to live up to expectations, it would be fitting for 2021 if this less ballyhooed matchup between high-ceiling quarterbacks delivered the goods. Further, it's not too hard to envision. According to Football Outsiders, the Rams play at the fastest situation neutral pace. Unfortunately, the Packers play at the sixth-slowest situation neutral pace. So the difference between this game playing to the projected score and turning into a shootout might come down to which team imposes their will for the pace.
I'm fading Matthew Stafford, despite the previously outlined recipe for a shootout. He's struggled in back-to-back games, one without Robert Woods. However, Cooper Kupp is the most productive receiver in the NFL this year. So, Kupp is an elite selection. Kupp is tied for the NFL lead in touchdown receptions (10) and leads in receptions per game (8.5) and receiving yards per game (114.1). In addition to Kupp's exploits, the matchup supports using him this week. According to Pro Football Focus's wide receiver versus cornerback tool, Kupp has the second-highest matchup advantage on the main slate. As a result, Kupp is the projected third-highest scorer on FanDuel and top scorer on DraftKings, making our highest-projected scorer among receivers a great play across game types.
Teammate Van Jefferson is an intriguing GPP dart throw. I'm not convinced Odell Beckham Jr. is a better receiver than Jefferson at this point in their respective careers. Also, OBJ might still be learning the playbook. The second-year receiver is making a giant sophomore leap after rarely being used in his rookie season. Jefferson has been targeted six or more times in four straight games, and he's recorded at least 80 receiving yards or a touchdown in four games this season.
Finally, Darrell Henderson Jr. has the best matchup this week. The Packers are 12th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in rush defense DVOA. Unfortunately, the third-year back hasn't cleared 60 scrimmage yards in back-to-back games. Nonetheless, he's a workhorse, playing 75% of the team's offensive snaps in games he's played this year. I'll gladly use a workhorse back like Henderson in a plus matchup. He carries the third-highest value score in our projections among running backs at DraftKings into this contest.
Packers Analysis: Sure, Stafford and Aaron Rodgers make for an exciting quarterback battle now that Stafford's supported by more talent with the Rams than he played with as Lion for their NFC North division battles. However, the real headline battle is between Kupp and Davante Adams. I noted above, Kupp is projected as the WR1 this week. Adams is projected as the WR2 at both daily fantasy providers. Green Bay's top receiver is tied for 16th in receiving touchdowns (five), fourth in receptions per game (7.2), and third in receiving yards per game (97.9). I prefer Kupp to Adams in most game types. Yet, paying top dollar to use both in a game stack is a viable GPP maneuver.
Rodgers was in the news this week for his toe injury. However, it didn't prevent him from thrashing the Vikings for 385 passing yards and four touchdowns in last week's thrilling loss. The Rams are 10th in pass defense DVOA. So, this isn't a cupcake matchup. Still, offense rules the roost in the NFL, and Rodgers is talented enough to hang points in bunches if this game shoots out. Further, there is a game-stacking appeal to using Rodgers and Adams together opposite a run back of Henderson, Kupp, or Jefferson.
Aaron Jones was a limited participant in practice, and head coach Matt LaFleur said they are evaluating him as the week progresses before determining his status for this week's game. If Jones is playing this week, then I'm fading Green Bay's backfield. However, if he's out, AJ Dillon is projected to dominate the backfield. The bowling-ball second-year back played 75% of Green Bay's offensive snaps in Week 11, toting the rock 11 times for 53 yards and hauling in all six of his targets for 44 yards. As a result, our optimizer projects Dillon for the second-highest value score at FanDuel and highest value score at DraftKings among running backs.
Finally, Marquez Valdes-Scantling might seem like an odd suggestion against a defense that's great at limiting explosive passes. The Rams are allowing the eighth-lowest average explosive pass rate (eight percent). Regardless, MVS is capable of delivering a home-run play even in a tricky matchup. Further, his fantasy outlook is enhanced by possibly stepping into the second spot in Green Bay's pass-catcher pecking order. In the last two weeks, MVS has been second on the team in routes (59), targets (nine), and receiving yards (164). Simply being out there and running routes leaves the door cracked for facing a blown coverage or outright winning in a tough matchup and hitting a big play or two.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Vikings Analysis: Dalvin Cook is the tough-cut top back for me this week. Sure, he can overcome a tough matchup. Nevertheless, I'm more interested in Minnesota's passing attack this week. The 49ers are third in rush defense DVOA and 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Thus, the path of least resistance for the Vikings' offense is through the air.
In addition, they pass at an above-average rate (59% versus 57% league average) in neutral game scripts. Kirk Cousins is thriving in Minnesota's slightly pass-happy offense this year. He's passed for multiple touchdowns in seven contests and reached at least 275 passing yards six times, including in back-to-back games. Also, Cousins has earned Pro Football Focus's third-highest passing grade this year. He's playing great football.
Of course, it helps Cousins to have an elite second-year receiver like Justin Jefferson to chuck the pigskin to. The sophomore stud is tied for 10th in touchdown receptions (six), eighth in yards per target (10.6 Y/Tgt), seventh in receptions per game (6.3), sixth among receivers targeted at least 30 times in yards per route run (2.53 Y/RR), and fourth in receiving yards per game (94.4). No matter how you slice it, Jefferson is one of the top wideouts in the NFL.
49ers Analysis: The 49ers have a rock-solid implied total of 26.0 points as three-point favorites t home this week. The constant in their offense this year has been the otherworldly play of Deebo Samuel. The dynamic do-it-all receiver is third in target share (29.8%) and first in yards after the catch (543). In addition, he is also third in yards per target (11.3 Y/Tgt), second in receiving yards per game (99.4), and first among receivers targeted at least 30 times in yards per route run (3.25 Y/RR). As if he's not electric enough as a receiver, he's added to his fantasy bottom line the last two weeks by rushing 13 times for 115 yards and two touchdowns.
George Kittle is projected to be the top-scoring tight end this week. He's rolling since returning from the injured reserve in Week 9, scoring a touchdown in three straight contests. Additionally, Kittle has hauled in 15 receptions for 185 yards on 19 targets. Finally, he's doing his typical hyper-efficient thing, leading tight ends targeted at least 30 times with 2.18 Y/RR.
Perhaps surprising to many, Brandon Aiyuk has stood out among San Francisco's trio of talented pass-catchers since Kittle's Week 9 return. In San Fransico's previous three games, Aiyuk has led the team in routes (87), targets (19), receptions (16), and receiving yards (200), hauling in a pair of touchdowns for good measure. It appears a high tide is raising all ships for the 49ers.
Finally, the 49ers voiced optimism about Elijah Mitchell suiting up last week, despite undergoing surgery on his finger. Obviously, their optimism didn't bear fruit, as he was inactive last week. However, the rookie running back returned to practice this week, a promising development for his availability this week. If Mitchell is back this week, I'll be all over him in a favorable matchup. Minnesota is 27th in rush defense DVOA, allowing 4.46 yards per rush attempt to running backs in 2021.
Meanwhile, Mitchell is one of the most surprising top performers this year. The sixth-round pick is fifth in rushing yards per game (80.0). Obviously, there is a risk to using a guy on fantasy teams who had finger surgery and is tasked with holding onto the football. Nonetheless, he has an upside that's worthy of GPP consideration.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
