The sheer number of injuries fantasy managers have dealt with thus far guarantee that many of us have some tough lineup decisions ahead. The waiver wire is a little less enticing now than it was in Week 13, but that still doesn’t mean that there isn’t someone you can snag that can help you in a pinch. You also know by now that none of your regular starters are ever guaranteed a strong performance, especially if they’re facing a difficult matchup. There’s always the case that someone on your bench with a much better matchup or some newfound opportunity can outperform someone you start often. As such, our job is to find out who these bench/waiver sleepers are and who you should temper your expectations for. That’s exactly what our featured analysts are here to do today.
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Q1. Who is a player outside of our top 100 flex rankings that is a deep sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?
Rashaad Penny (RB – SEA)
“Excluding players with ambiguous injury situations who would be in the top 100 otherwise, Penny is an intriguing option. He led Seattle RBs with 29 snaps last week against the 49ers and had 10-35-0 rushing and 1-27-0, showing far more juice than the newly signed Adrian Peterson. Seattle faces a Houston defense that’s yielded more rushing attempts and rushing yardage than any other team in the league and is giving up 22.1 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) to running backs.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Rashaad Penny had 11 touches last week and even though he ceded the goal-line work to Adrian Peterson, he was clearly the better runner. He’ll now take on the Texans, who allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, in a game the Seahawks are favored to win by more than a touchdown. It’s possible, if not plausible, that Seattle took it easy on Penny last week as he was still working back from an injury, but will now look to give him the lion’s share of the work regardless of the health of Alex Collins. At the very least, there is garbage time potential, and he should outperform his ranking.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
J.D. McKissic (RB – WAS)
“There are bound to be deep surprises, but I’m not looking to get too cute with my late-season lineup decisions. That’s why I like McKissic (assuming he’s back from his concussion, which he’s trending to be). Washington needs him as a receiving option. He posted five catches against Seattle, even with Antonio Gibson racking up seven receptions. Dallas arrives as a four-point favorite with the league’s No. 2 offense in situation-neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders. If Washington falls behind, the environment will get even better for McKissic. Taylor Heinicke will be especially glad to have the outlet option back against a Dallas pass rush that has returned DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory from injuries the past two weeks.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)
Marquez Callaway (WR – NO)
“Choosing a player outside the top 100 in flex rankings makes for some slim pickings, so taking the 104 really seems like cherry-picking, but with only three receptions on eight targets in the last two games, Callaway could be flying under the radar. He certainly hit a hot streak earlier in the season, but has cooled off with the emergence of Deonte Harris, who has been averaging over six targets a game over the last six games. Harris will begin serving his three-game suspension this week while the Saints face one of the league’s worst defenses in the NY Jets. I wouldn’t normally use the reasoning of vacated targets to start someone, but Kenny Stills also got waived yesterday and he had five targets in the Saints’ loss to Dallas last week.”
– Kevin Wheeler (The Draft Zone)
Randall Cobb (WR – GB)
“Cobb had an outlier fantasy performance in Week 8 when teammates Davante Adams and Allen Lazard were sidelined for COVID protocols. However, Cobb’s broader touchdown success strikes me as less of a fluke than you’d expect. Since Week 7, Cobb is fifth among wide receivers with 3.8 expected touchdowns (OTDs) based on the air yards and the proximity to the end zone of his targets and is tied for first with 10 targets within five yards of the end zone. Cobb has downside with his lower target volume, but I like his chances to score much better than the other flex options in this range of the rankings.”
– Scott Spratt (Football Outsiders)
Robby Anderson (WR – CAR)
“Once you get to this point of the rankings, it’s slim pickings. There aren’t very many players that we can feel even remotely comfortable starting, so when that’s the case it’s important to look for the players in the best matchups. It’s hard to find a better matchup right now for opposing WRs than Atlanta, which means that Anderson is worth considering as a deep sleeper start this week. There’s a very low floor due to the potential range of outcomes with Cam Newton at QB, but the path for upside is there because of who he gets to take on this week.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)
Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week?
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
“Finally, exceedingly patient Barkley owners get a great Week 14 matchup with the Chargers … right? Well, L.A. ranks just 15th in PPR points per game allowed to RBs over the past five weeks, despite tying for the fourth most rushing TDs yielded over that span. The Chargers have also yielded the eighth fewest yards per rush to RBs in that time, and Football Outsiders ranks them seventh-best in RB coverage DVOA for the season. Combine all that with Barkley playing behind a bad offensive line and with a third-string QB. He’ll need ALL the targets to deliver any upside this week.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)
“Saquon Barkley inspires no confidence this week. In the three games he’s played since coming back from an ankle injury, he’s averaged 40 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards and hasn’t scored a touchdown. The Giants’ woeful offensive line ranks 30th in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric, and the Giants are going to be starting either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm at quarterback. Barkley faces a Chargers run defense that’s been mediocre for most of the season, but the Chargers held Joe Mixon to 2.8 yards per carry last week.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR)
“Moore has yet to take a step back since Cam Newton took over as the Panthers’ starter, but I’m worried that could be coming. It isn’t a targets issue — Moore has seen 29.3% of Newton’s targets since Week 11, a rate that has him fifth highest among wide receivers in that time. The issue is touchdown potential. With Newton’s ability and predilection for scoring with his legs in the red zone, he hasn’t thrown Moore many passes near the goal line. In fact, Moore has just six end zone targets in 17 Newton games in his career, and his rate of 0.35 end zone targets per game with Newton is tied for 99th among wide receivers with at least 10 games played since 2018.”
– Scott Spratt (Football Outsiders)
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
“McLaurin has been a disappointment overall, with single-digit half-PPR fantasy points in four of his last five games and in six of his last eight. It’s hardly his fault, as Washington has (appropriately) gone to a much more run-heavy game plan, and Taylor Heinicke is taking few chances. It’s a good matchup against the Cowboys, who allow the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but Dallas is particularly susceptible to explosive plays, which is just not Washington’s bread and butter. Every player within the top-40 of flex rankings is a must-start option, but when you’re looking for a player who could disappoint, it’s pretty easy to point to a player who actually HAS disappointed in four of his last five weeks.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)
James Conner (RB – ARI)
“Since Chase Edmonds went down in Week 9, Conner has been feasting. Conner’s volume has nearly doubled, as his targets have gone from less than one per game to over four per game. His already insane touchdown rate also climbed from one per game to 1.5 per game. He’s been the benefactor of some very positive game scripts in three of those four games and was only truly efficient in the Week 9 game at San Francisco. Kyler Murray returned from injury last week and scored the Cardinals’ only rushing touchdown. Conner did snag a beautiful one-handed grab for a 23-yard receiving touchdown, but I don’t think we should expect to see that regularly. I also believe Edmonds (high-ankle sprain) will be returning from IR this week, capping Conner’s carries at about 15 and totally eliminating any receiving upside.”
– Kevin Wheeler (The Draft Zone)
Marquise Brown (WR – BAL)
“Over the first half of the season, Brown was a big-play threat and was averaging 14.8 yards per reception. However, over the past few weeks, he’s seen his YPR drop all the way down to 7.5 and he’s been a relative disappointment for fantasy purposes. This Ravens offense simply looks broken and it’s struggling to create the splash plays deep downfield that were leading to Brown’s incredible fantasy success. It’s time to officially be concerned with Brown and to start bumping him down the rankings.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)
Thank you to all the experts for giving their sleeper starts and duds. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our latest podcast episode below.
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