We’ve asked experts for their top fantasy football busts to avoid for 2022 drafts. Here are their top fantasy football busts.

• Busts the Experts Avoid: Quarterbacks

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Busts the Experts Avoid: Wide Receivers

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill (MIA) 
“The Chiefs were intentional about getting the ball in Hill’s hands in 2021 — his 27.1 percent target per route run rate was by far the highest mark of his career and trailed only Davante Adams (30.7 percent), Cooper Kupp (30.6 percent), and Diontae Johnson (27.5 percent) among players with at least 350 routes run, and yet he finished as just the WR6 in Fantasy. He’s being drafted as the WR8 as a Dolphin. Can we really expect Miami to get him more involved in 2022? Surely we aren’t expecting an increase in efficiency as Hill transitions from familiarity with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid to a new offense under a first-time head coach and unproven quarterback, right? His target per route run rate will have to spike to justify Hill’s current ADP, then, and this isn’t even considering the likelihood that the Mike McDaniel-led Dolphins will likely produce far fewer pass attempts than Hill’s Chiefs did. From a projection standpoint, there’s no way to make sense of Hill’s ADP.”
– Jacob Gibbs (SportsLine)

“Tyreek Hill’s trade to the Dolphins isn’t baked into his cost enough for me, so I can’t get behind drafting him as a top-10 WR this year. He’s going from one of the pass-happiest teams in the league to likely one of the most run-heavy. As the offensive coordinator in San Francisco last year, new Miami head coach Mike McDaniel employed a game plan which saw the fourth fewest pass attempts in 2021. Tyreek is coming off a season that saw career highs in targets and receptions, and a significant drop-off there and at the quarterback throwing him the ball has me fading him in the second round of drafts this season.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

“I think Tyreek Hill could see a fall from grace in 2022. Going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a clear step backward in terms of quality of target, and Hill saw his average depth of target decrease from 12.9 to 10.4 in 2021. Now entering his age-28 season in a brand-new system, one has to wonder if Hill can simply pick up where he left off in Kansas City in a new scheme under new coaching. If Jaylen Waddle takes a leap in his sophomore season over and beyond his historic 2021 rookie campaign, Hill could very quickly become the second option on his team.”
– Nathan Groot Nibbelink (JWB Fantasy Football)

“Tyreek Hill: The Chiefs fan inside of me wants to believe that Tyreek Hill is QB proof, but we saw signs of this being a false narrative last year. Tyreek Hill is a game-changing talent, but his lack of consistency last year worries me. Last year, 43% of Hill’s fantasy output came in only 4 games. The downgrade from Mahomes to Tua, as well as Waddle’s familiarity with Tua, has me all out on Cheetah”
– Nate Marcum (Fantasy In Frames)

Deebo Samuel (SF)
“Deebo Samuel – Deebo Samuel built his 2021 WR2 finish on two things: a ridiculously high yards per reception and an even more obscene rushing touchdown percentage. 18.2 yards per reception is simply unsustainable (only Ja’Marr Chase was within THREE yards of that with 110 targets or more). Then you don’t have to be a mathematician to know that eight touchdowns on only 59 carries is due to regress downward. Of course, the biggest factor is volume now that Trey Lance has fully taken over. Lance will definitely cut down Samuel’s rushing attempts with his own legs, and the 49ers will throw less overall.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)

“Deebo Samuel posted a bunch of efficiency metrics last year that will be nearly impossible to match in 2022: 18.2 yards per catch, 11.6 yards per target, and a 13.6% rushing TD rate. His volume might take a hit, too. The 49ers figure to throw it even less under QB Trey Lance. And WR Brandon Aiyuk seems primed to take on a bigger role. Reduced efficiency and reduced volume is a bad combination.”
– Jared Smola (Draft Sharks)

DK Metcalf (SEA) 
“The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. Both guys have sub-80.0 career passer ratings. while Wilson’s career passer rating (101.8) ranks second all-time among QBs with 100 starts. DK Metcalf has thrived off efficient QB play touchdown production – 32 touchdowns over his first three seasons -, but scoring might be a rare commodity for this 2022 Seahawks offense. There’s also no guarantee that Metcalf holds a stranglehold as the team’s target share leader after he and Tyler Lockett have posted nearly identical target shares over the last two seasons.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)

Rashod Bateman (BAL) 
“The Ravens are going to be a run-first team, and Mark Andrews is the #1 receiver, so I won’t be relying on Rashod Bateman’s PPR targets to win my leagues. Bateman had the lowest Average depth of target (or ADOT) in the offense in 2021. Hollywood Brown’s ADOT was 11.25 yards, Mark Andrews was 10.29 yards, and Rashod Bateman was 8.9 yards. That means his route tree was that of a possession receiver (not deep threat), so I expect a lower ceiling than most for Bateman this year. ”
– Bradlee Kilgore (Fantrax)

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 
“CeeDee Lamb is now being drafted early to middle 2nd round ahead of top tier running backs and much safer WRs. The history of Big12 wide receivers failing to reach their potential is very obvious with names like Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson, Denzel Mims, and John Ross. Lamb was the WR14 overall and the WR15 in PPG with players such as Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, and Tyreek Hill scoring ahead of him last year, but now they are being drafted later.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)

Thank you to all the experts for naming their consensus busts. You can view each expert’s picks above and be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our latest podcast episode below.

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