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NFL Week 13 Injury Report Analysis (2022 Fantasy Football)

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Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)

Plan to re-insert Chase back into your WR1 slot. He projects to be nearly full strength at this point. If he had returned in Week 12, we would’ve expected a limit on his snaps. At this point, however, the training wheels will likely be off.

Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)

TBD but the data is in Mixon’s favor. The vast majority of players would be cleared by Sunday, and RBs don’t see any performance dip when they return from a concussion. Have a backup ready in case though.

Justin Fields (QB – CHI)

Fields looks ready to play. Non-throwing shoulder AC joint injuries don’t show any negative performance impact in our data. Look for him to be a little less aggressive about taking hits as a runner, but this injury wouldn’t prevent us from starting him in Week 13.

Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)

TBD. Lean towards playing. We’re starting him if he’s playing but be warned that he’s going to have a highly elevated (~20-25%) re-injury rate this week if active.

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

TBD. Lean towards playing. Oblique strains that don’t lead to surgery tend NOT to affect production on a per-play basis. Re-injury rates are moderately elevated (~15%), so we do see a more committee-based approach to touches. Tomlin’s teams don’t usually reflect that trend, but they’re also not usually 4-7 with nothing but pride to play for. We’d start Najee in season-long formats assuming he’s active, but avoid in DFS.

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT)

Warren is highly likely to play in Week 13. It’s unclear how Warren and Harris will divide workloads in this backfield, but data does suggest a more committee-based approach than normal. Based on RB hamstring data, Warren projects to maintain 90% of his per-play production.

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)

Expect CMC to perform at full strength with a full workload as long as games remain close. However, if the Niners take a convincing lead, we’d expect them to rest him because that’s the treatment to keep his patellar tendinitis under control going into the playoffs.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – JAX)

TBD. Lean towards playing. Mild foot sprains don’t typically cause much production impact, so we’re starting Etienne if he’s active in Week 13.

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF)

TBD. Lean towards sitting. Samuel is likely dealing with a quad contusion, which is structurally stable but very painful. These do tend to cause noticeable performance dips for WRs, so we’d expect the Niners to sit him in Week 13.

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – FA)

OBJ has a real chance to contribute this year, but not likely much in the regular season. ACL data projects him to be at 80-85% at this point and hitting 90% in mid-January. That’s a solid player who could make a difference for a contender, but probably not in time for fantasy teams.

Jameson Williams (WR – DET)

TBD. Has a chance to debut in Week 13, but we’d lean more likely toward Week 14. At this point, our algorithm projects Williams in the ~85-90% range of his pre-injury explosiveness. He could be a valuable flex-level contributor in the fantasy home stretch.

JK Dobbins (RB – BAL)

TBD. Lean towards a Week 14-15 return to the field. His latest surgery was minor in terms of performance impact, but given his prior ACL/LCL combo we’d anticipate a 2-3 game ramp-up to full workloads for Dobbins.

Mike Williams (WR – LAC)

Re-aggravated high ankle sprains average 3-4 additional weeks out, but also cause lingering performance dips lasting up to 2 weeks post-return. Williams has a chance to return in Week 14-15, but we won’t be looking to start him until at least his 2nd game back.

Michael Carter (RB – NYJ)

Likely out in Week 13. Low ankles for RBs typically cost 0 or 1 game, so there’s a high likelihood of Carter coming back next week. Performance upon return averages ~90% of pre-injury level for RBs.

David Njoku (TE – CLE)

TEs average 1-2 missed games with these. Solid chance to return next week. Would even consider buying low here if you don’t have a trade deadline.

Romeo Doubs (WR – GB)

TBD. Lean towards sitting. Severe high ankles average 4-5 missed games for WRs, and Doubs has only missed 3. Even if he plays, we’d avoid starting him because there tends to be a performance dip that lasts at least the first two games back.

Aaron Donald (DT – LAR)

High ankles for linemen average 4 weeks, but early reports sound like Donald’s may be less severe than the typical version. Still, with the Rams 3-8, it’s hard to imagine him coming back too soon here.

Chase Young (DE – WAS)

Young at 13 months post-ACL is very likely ready to play. However, it’s common to take the return slowly with young, highly drafted players. Look for a ramp-up in snap count over the course of ~3-4 games.

Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)

Out for the rest of this year, but luckily not much longer than that. Return to full speed takes ~3-4 months without lingering performance impact, so Pitts should be ready to roll well before the start of the ’23 training camp.

Von Miller (LB – BUF)

Whether or not we hear about it, Miller is likely having surgery to trim his torn meniscus. Return timelines average 4 weeks, and defensive players return to full pre-injury production almost immediately.

T.J. Watt (LB – PIT)

TBD. Lean towards playing. Rib injuries for defensive linemen are often played through without much performance impact.

D’Andre Swift (RB – DET)

Swift’s health has likely played a role in his usage up to this point, but he should now be nearing full strength from his lingering ankle and shoulder injuries. Look for steady improvements in his passing game workload, though it does seem like Jamaal Williams is firmly in control of the running game.

Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)

We’d be surprised if Kupp returns at all this season. Conservative return timelines from tightrope surgery take ~8 weeks, and there’s no benefit to rushing back a 30-year-old WR for a last-place team.

Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)

TBD. Lean towards sitting. Even if he’s active, high ankles generally cause performance dips for the first 2 games back, so we wouldn’t be looking to start him just yet.

Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)

TBD. Practice data suggests he’d sit, but coaching comments suggest he could play. We’d lean slightly towards Gibson being out there. Foot sprains usually last 2 or fewer games without much production impact. We’d be surprised if this is a long-term issue.

Michael Gallup (WR – DAL)

Battling illness but reportedly not injury, so we’d expect him to play in Week 13. Over the next 3-4 games, ACL data suggests Gallup should be seeing major improvements in his production.

David Bakhtiari (OL – GB)

Aggressive return timelines from appendix surgery average 2 games missed. We saw Minkah Fitzpatrick pull that off earlier this year, and wouldn’t be surprised in Bakhtiari attempts to do the same.

Terron Armstead (OL – MIA)

Moderate pec strains average 2-3 weeks for offensive linemen. Expect Armstead out this week, with an outside shot to return in Week 14.

DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI)

Officially off the injury report, Smith doesn’t project to see any performance hit from injury. His re-injury rate, however, is going to be moderately elevated (~15%) for the next 2 weeks.

Damien Harris (RB – NE)

Not much info to work with on Harris, but we’d tentatively plan for a Week 15 return based on his “week-to-week” designation with a thigh issue.

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