Before the 2024 NFL Draft kicked off in the Motor City, I released an article titled How to Value Rookies Pre-Draft (2024 Fantasy Football) to provide some insight into the approach for rookies in dynasty and pre-draft best ball fantasy football formats.
The first-year talent that has entered the league the past few seasons warrants excitement because guys are hitting the ground running for fantasy football. The list is impressive: C.J. Stroud, Zay Flowers, Sam LaPorta, Puka Nacua, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Drake London, Christian Watson, Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor, Kyle Pitts, Jaylen Waddle, Najee Harris, Javonte Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Let’s look at fantasy football rookie running back values ahead of your fantasy football drafts.
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- Dynasty Startup Draft Primers
- Dynasty Draft Kit
- Dynasty Mock Draft Simulator
How to Value Fantasy Football Rookie Running Backs
Trey Benson (ARI)
For starters, Benson was drafted with one of the first picks in Round 3, making him closer to a Round 2 pick than truly Round 3. I love the spot for him on an ascending Cardinals offense with James Conner entering the last year of his contract. I fully expect Conner to still be the “bell cow” in 2024 if he is able to maintain his health. Obviously, that’s not a given. But in the meantime, Benson has the size/speed profile to flash his explosiveness while working in tandem with Conner. The former Florida State RB posted a 51% missed tackle rate in 2023. If/when Conner goes down, it will be the Benson show in the desert. And he will be the headliner in 2025.
Blake Corum (LAR)
Corum would be super productive in the Kyren Williams role for Sean McVay as a do-it-all RB. I don’t think the Corum selection denounces Williams as the starting RB1 in LA, but it gives McVay another option in case Williams suffers another injury. The third-year RB has gotten hurt both years he has played in the NFL. Last year, the Rams went right back to Kyren, with nobody else worth much on the depth chart.
Corum changes that equation substantially. Because if he hits (I’d bet he does) with his opportunities in the wake of another Williams injury, McVay might not be so loyal/open to turning the backfield back to Williams.
Given the Corum addition, I’d strongly fade Williams as a top 2024 redraft pick while hyper-targeting the former Wolverine as a premier late-round RB target. Any volume that Corum takes on in the Rams’ backfield will hurt Williams’ fantasy value.
MarShawn Lloyd (GB)
As for Lloyd…let’s be real here regarding the landing spot for the Packers. I’ve already seen some Lloyd stans (hello, DBro) come out and call out Josh Jacobs‘ contract as an “essential” one-year deal and quote head coach Matt LeFleur’s tendency to use a running back by committee.
But if Jacobs is good/effective in 2024, they probably won’t cut him. And even if they did, that still doesn’t guarantee anything for Lloyd for 2025 and beyond—given LeFleur’s tendency to use a running back by committee. I’ve heard the 2025 RB class is very good. The argument for Lloyd in an RBBC is somewhat of a double-edged sword, isn’t it?
And this Packers coaching staff has an unhealthy infatuation with A.J. Dillon. I’d like to assume Lloyd can easily supplant Dillon as the No. 2 RB, but he never totally dominated a college backfield. His yards per play (2.4) is very poor compared to the rest of the RB class. Lloyd never surpassed 150 touches in any season, with only three games of 20+ touches. He also dealt with injuries consistently, which contributed to smaller workloads. Eight fumbles aren’t great for job security, either.
I feel the Round 3/Day 2 draft capital is buoying Lloyd’s fantasy value to some extent, but I’m not sure that it’s warranted.
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