Fantasy Football Player Notes

CMC was traded to the 49ers prior to the team's Week 7 game against the Kansas City Chiefs. But it didn't take long for him to take on a massive role, going for 40-plus fantasy points in just his second game in a San Fran uniform. He would go on to lead all running backs in fantasy points scored from Weeks 8-17 averaging 20.5 fantasy half-points per game (also first). From Week 8 onward (13 games including postseason play), CMC averaged 19.5 points per game and 17.3 expected fantasy points per game. Both would have ranked first among all RBs in 2022. McCaffrey averaged nearly 20 touches per game - 76% average snap share in non-blowout games - while catching nearly five balls per game as PFF's third-highest-graded running back. Even with the 49ers opening the season with a very crowded offense in 2023, McCaffrey while healthy is the best bet to see the highest production among the talented group in the Bay Area.

George Kittle remains one of the NFL's most talented tight ends and is arguably the hardest to tackle. He's coming off a strange season in which he scored a career-high 11 touchdowns but averaged 51 receiving yards per game -- the fewest since his rookie year in 2017. Kittle has been remarkably efficient as a pass catcher, with a career average of 9.6 yards per target. The question is whether Kittle will be targeted often enough to suit his fantasy managers. The 49ers are in flux at the QB position, and Kittle will have to share targets with RB Christian McCaffrey and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

Without his "wide back" role and with the 49ers bottling him up as a check-down specialist again, Deebo Samuel struggled to a WR28 finish in 2022. He still drew a strong share of the 49ers' passing offense with a 25.4% target share (19th), but his aDOT was 4.2 (102nd), and he only saw five deep targets (108th) and 12 red zone looks (36th). Without the rushing equity and high-leverage roles to help pad his fantasy production, Samuel dissolved into a WR3. With the quarterback situation remaining unsettled in San Francisco in 2023 and the onus remaining on running the ball, Samuel will remain a WR3.

Brandon Aiyuk set career highs across the board in 2022 in targets (113), receiving yards (1,015), and receiving touchdowns (eight) as the WR23 in fantasy. Aiyuk was 19th in PFF receiving grade, 27th in yards per route run, and 23rd in YAC per reception (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Aiyuk was also eighth in open rate, tied with Davante Adams (per ESPN analytics). Aiyuk ran hot with touchdowns (11th among wide receivers) despite ranking only 36th in deep targets and 30th in red zone targets. While it's tough to project him to eclipse last season's target mark in the 49ers' run-first offense, if Aiyuk's high-value usage creeps up in 2023, he will improve upon last year's fantasy finish. Aiyuk is a WR2.

Elijah Mitchell got hurt in Week 1 and the team traded for Christian McCaffrey by the time he was fully healthy enough to return to the field (Week 10). In his first game back, he rushed 18 times for 89 yards. He saw middling usage over the next two weeks - eight carries for 47 rushing yards per game - before getting hurt again. Mitchell's gone two straight seasons without being able to stay healthy - definitely a downside factor to being undersized running back in the Kyle Shanahan run scheme. But his efficient play at least solidified him as the primary handcuff to McCaffrey in 2023. He might see occasional spike weeks of production even while CMC is healthy (as he did at times in 2022) but I'd hardly project him for any consistent role as the No. 2 running back on the depth chart. Although it should be noted that No. 3 running back Jordan Mason graded out as PFF's second-highest graded rusher in 2022, and could potentially push Mitchell for the backup job. Mason's larger stature will make it easier for him to hold up over an 18-week season.

Will Trey Lance be a starter when the 49ers kick off the 2023 season? It seems likely that he'll compete with Brock Purdy for the starter's job, and it's possible 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will put his thumb on the scale for Purdy after the seventh-round pick from Iowa State helped guide the Niners into the playoffs. Lance is a dangerous runner with ample arm talent, and this will be his age-23 season, so there's plenty of time for him to make good on the potential that inspired the 49ers to give away multiple first-round draft picks in order to trade up and draft Lance. But the North Dakota State product has thrown just 420 passes since high school and still has a great deal to prove. Lance could be one of the best QB values of 2023 or a complete waste of a draft pick.

The last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Brock Purdy was hardly "Mr. Irrelevant" as a rookie. After Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo sustained season-ending injuries, the 49ers turned to Purdy as their starter, and he obliged with smart, mistake-free football, guiding the 49ers all the way to the NFL Championship Game before a torn UCL ended his season and torpedoed the 49ers' title hopes. Assuming Purdy's recovery goes smoothly, he'll likely compete with Trey Lance for a starting role in 2023. The 49ers traded up to draft Lance No. 3 overall in 2021, but head coach Kyle Shanahan could decide that Purdy is simply a better distributor and a better candidate to fully leverage San Francisco's abundant skill-position talent.

The third overall pick of the 2018 draft, Sam Darnold probably won't ever live up to the expectations he carried coming out of USC, and he might not be a Week 1 starter when the new season begins. But Darnold has at least given the Panthers some spurts of functionality over the last two years, and at worst he'll begin the 2023 season as a high-quality backup. Darnold's career passing numbers aren't particularly impressive, but he's been surprisingly effective as a runner, with 328 rushing yards and seven TD runs in 18 games over the last two years.