Fantasy Football Player Notes

Christian McCaffrey came storming back in his age-29 season to finish as the RB1 in fantasy points per game while leading the NFL with 413 touches. He also ranked second in total yards from scrimmage behind only Bijan Robinson. McCaffrey remained amazing through the air, leading backs with a 21.3% target share, 54.4 receiving yards per game, and 0.103 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). After another high-volume season in the bag, and with his age getting close to the danger zone, McCaffrey feels like a risky pick again that could produce league-winning results if he stays healthy. At this point, San Francisco isn't decreasing his workload. They can talk about it all they want yearly, but it's not happening. Outside of the concerns that I've already stated, McCaffrey's declining rushing efficiency is a worry. Last year, among 49 qualifying backs, McCaffrey ranked 35th in explosive run rate, 26th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt. Those numbers are worrisome, but again, they are thwarted by his volume weekly and his passing game role. McCaffrey could easily post another RB1 overall season in 2026, or he could get dinged up and miss time, thus crushing your team. It's not difficult to see either outcome for this upcoming season.

Mike Evans has a new home with the 49ers, and he looks like a wonderful value in fantasy drafts. Yes, Evans dealt with hamstring issues again last year, but that wasn't the big limiting factor in his games played. That was related to a broken collarbone. For all of the injury talk about Evans, before the 2025 season, he had never played less than 13 games in any season, and since 2020 he had played at least 14 games in every season. Evans might be older, but he hasn't slowed down when you look at his metrics. Last year, during his seven full games played, he had a 24.4% target share, a 30.6% first-read share, and 0.116 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 109 qualifying receivers last year, those numbers would have ranked 13th-best across the board. Yes, during that sample, he had only 1.86 yards per route run and 52.6 receiving yards per game, which would have ranked 31st and 33rd among the same group of receivers, but that was more related to Baker Mayfield's inaccuracy than Evans slowing down. In his full games played, Evans had only a 70.9% catchable target rate, which among those 109 receivers would have ranked 84th. Evans on field production didn't match his deeper analytics and target-earning ability, as he was also second-best in separation and route win rate last season. If he can stay healthy this season, he should be one of the best values on the board for fantasy season with WR1 upside.

If you're not respecting Brock Purdy at this point as a strong QB1, I really don't know what to tell you. Over the last three seasons, he has finished as the QB5, QB10, and QB6 in fantasy points per game. In his four years in the NFL, he has only once finished with a passing touchdown rate lower than 7.0%. Last year, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Purdy was sixth in passing yards per game, ninth in yards per attempt, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points Data). Purdy will again be a QB1 that goes far too late in drafts in 2026.

George Kittle had a battered and bruised 2025 season with a hamstring injury that cost him seven games, then an ankle injury, and finally an Achilles tear in the postseason. We'll have to see when Kittle is back on the field for the 49ers in 2026 and looking like his usual tackle-breaking self. I'm hopeful that Kittle makes a wonderful recovery and beats the timelines, but I also won't be shocked if San Francisco holds him back by starting him out on the PUP to begin the season and eases him in after that. When Kittle was on the field last year, he didn't show any signs of slowing down. Among 54 qualifying tight ends, he ranked fourth in target share (20%) and yards per route run (2.30), third in receiving yards per game (57.1) and first-read share (24.3%), and second in first downs per route run (0.139, per Fantasy Points Data). Kittle is a nice upside swing at tight end this year. He could be a player that puts fantasy teams over the top down the stretch if he can regain his usual form. If you're drafting Kittle, I'd pair him with another late tight end like Dallas Goedert or Isaiah Likely that could return strong TE1 production at least to open the 2026 season until Kittle is ready to rock.

Deebo Samuel rejoins the San Francisco 49ers on a one-year deal after a one-year dalliance with the Commanders. Samuel will compete with De'Zhaun Stribling to be the WR2 in the pecking order behind Mike Evans. Last year, Samuel was the WR29 in fantasy points per game while putting up a varied stat line. Samuel posted some metrics that make me want to feel bullish about his 2026 outlook, but there are also concerning pieces of his analytical profile. Let's start out with the good. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, Samuel was 18th in target share (22.4%), ninth in yards after the catch per reception (6.6), 21st in first-read share (27.3%), and ninth-best in missed tackles forced per reception. Unfortunately, though, among the same sample of receivers, he was also 38th in yards per route run and 53rd in first downs per route run (0.076) while seeing his usual bevy of underneath targets (5.3 aDOT, 103rd out of 109 qualifying receivers). I find myself more in than out with Samuel for 2026. His ability to break tackles and create with the ball in his hands has always been his calling card, and he's still posting stellar metrics in those departments and target-earning areas. The per-route efficiency worries I'll chalk up to Washington's struggling offense last season. Samuel should be a viable WR3/flex with upside for 2026 in the 49ers' offense.

De'Zhaun Stribling has been zooming up draft boards and ADP since the news of Ricky Pearsall's season-ending PCL news. Many could pump the brakes on that now that San Francisco brought back Deebo Samuel on a one-year deal, but I'll still be drafting Stribling at cost. Christian Kirk (calf) is also dealing with an injury to open camp. At this point in Kirk's career, he can't be counted on to stay healthy or be an effective weekly cog of an NFL passing attack. Stribling had a solid collegiate career, with his skill set fitting what the 49ers want from their receivers. During his final two collegiate seasons, he posted 2.15 and 2.44 yards per route run with 7.3 and 6.7 yards after the catch per reception (17 missed tackles forced across both seasons, per PFF). Stribling offers the 49ers a varied skill set with shades of what they have hoped to get from Pearsall. He can make players miss in space, outrun them with the ball in his hands (4.36 40-yard dash), and create yards after the catch. Stribling is a great late-round selection in fantasy football drafts in 2026.

Eddy Pineiro is an awesome fantasy option at kicker. Last year, he was second-best in field goal made % and he should have plenty of opportunities for field goals and extra points this season if the 49ers can keep their skill players healthy. Last year, Pineiro was the K6 in fantasy points per game.

Kaelon Black looks to have an early edge to climb into the clear RB2 spot on the 49ers' depth chart behind Christian McCaffrey, with Jordan James now dealing with a rib fracture. James sustained the injury in Monday's practice. Isaac Guerendo has had his own injury demons to deal with during his NFL career and has seemingly fallen down the depth chart with the team drafting James and Black in back-to-back years. I wasn't in love with Black as a prospect as a rusher who failed to finish inside the top 40 FBS backs last year in yards after contact per attempt, breakaway rate, or elusive rating (per PFF). He'll be climbing up my ranks, though, into the clear handcuff tier because, as we've seen over the years, Christian McCaffrey's health is never a certainty.

Jordan James suffered a rib fracture in the 49ers' practice and will miss time. The second-year back is vying for RB2 duties behind CMC, competing with third-round rookie RB Kaelon Black.

They open the season versus the Rams in Australia, but then it's smooth sailing from Weeks 2-3 (vs MIA and ARI at home). If you don't draft the Niners, they will be a priority waiver wire addition ahead of Week 2. Tied for the second-fewest interceptions in 2025 after being completely gutted by injuries.