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Touchdown Regression Report

2021 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 168.38%0.00%343.917.80%0.99%337.51 0
Davante Adams (LV) 156.51% 0.00% 274.326.63%0.00%275.52 0
Deebo Samuel (SF) 154.92%13.56%273.534.29%9.94%256.13 0
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) 1610.16%0.00%260.547.39%2.47%240.35-1
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 165.95%0.00%256.855.39%2.35%251.94 +1
Tyreek Hill (MIA) 165.77%0.00%240.365.61%1.68%239.76 0
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 166.06% 0.00% 215.476.37%0.00%218.57 0
Diontae Johnson (PIT) 154.73%0.00%212.385.00%0.40%215.18 0
Mike Evans (TB) 1512.28%0.00%201.699.50%1.59%182.715-6
DK Metcalf (SEA) 169.30%0.00%198.5107.07%1.56%181.317-7
Keenan Allen (LAC) 153.82% 0.00% 196.6114.81%0.00%205.99 +2
Chris Godwin (TB) 143.91%25.00%193.4125.06%19.96%201.110 +2
Hunter Renfrow (LV) 167.03%0.00%192.7137.03%1.28%192.911 +2
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 155.08%0.00%187.8144.61%4.41%186.812 +2
Mike Williams (LAC) 156.98% 0.00% 186.2156.93%0.00%185.814 +1
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 154.48%0.00%182.7163.96%0.67%178.620-4
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) 154.23%50.00%182.6174.27%38.33%181.616 +1
Tee Higgins (CIN) 145.45% 0.00% 182.1185.16%0.00%180.119-1
Tyler Lockett (SEA) 157.48%0.00%180.4195.47%0.79%167.622-3
DJ Moore (CAR) 162.45%0.00%177.5203.36%0.74%186.713 +7
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) 164.65%0.00%177.2215.06%2.31%181.118 +3
Marquise Brown (ARI) 154.14%0.00%176.6224.36%0.66%178.621 +1
Adam Thielen (MIN) 1310.53%0.00%166.3238.44%1.56%154.527-4
Christian Kirk (JAC) 164.85%0.00%163.8244.80%0.00%163.523 +1
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 163.82%0.00%163.7253.77%0.00%163.424 +1
Darnell Mooney (CHI) 162.86%16.67%160.6263.31%11.53%162.625 +1
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 154.20%14.29%160.2274.65%8.55%161.026 +1
Amari Cooper (CLE) 148.25% 0.00% 158.1287.12%0.00%151.528 0
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 165.32%0.00%150.3294.58%0.00%146.130-1
Kendrick Bourne (NE) 167.14%0.00%148.3305.67%2.10%143.632-2
DeVonta Smith (PHI) 165.00% 0.00% 148.0314.64%0.00%145.831 0
Van Jefferson (LAR) 166.74%0.00%139.1326.41%1.77%137.633-1
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 151.59%0.00%137.8333.13%1.56%149.529 +4
A.J. Brown (PHI) 124.76%0.00%134.6344.75%1.67%134.737-3
Marquez Callaway (NO) 167.14% 0.00% 128.8355.71%0.00%121.641-6
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 165.88%0.00%128.6365.56%0.29%127.038-2
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 1012.50% 0.00% 126.23710.56%0.00%118.842-5
A.J. Green (ARI) 153.26% 0.00% 125.5385.10%0.00%135.635 +3
Marvin Jones Jr. (JAC) 163.33% 0.00% 125.4394.80%0.00%136.034 +5
K.J. Osborn (MIN) 168.54%0.00%124.9406.74%0.66%116.143-3
Chase Claypool (PIT) 141.90%0.00%121.6413.49%4.46%135.336 +5
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 162.11% 0.00% 118.8423.46%0.00%126.539 +3
Tim Patrick (DEN) 156.67% 0.00% 117.4436.27%0.00%115.644-1
Elijah Moore (NYJ) 116.49%20.00%116.7445.19%12.74%108.548-4
Robert Woods (TEN) 95.80%12.50%114.7456.48%8.40%115.645 0
Cole Beasley 150.89% 0.00% 113.2462.56%0.00%124.440 +6
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) 145.56%0.00%110.7475.62%1.58%111.246 +1
Russell Gage (TB) 124.26% 0.00% 106.9484.56%0.00%108.647 +1
Odell Beckham Jr. 136.10%0.00%104.3495.77%0.97%102.850-1
Gabriel Davis (BUF) 149.52% 0.00% 103.0509.23%0.00%101.951-1
Allen Lazard (GB) 1313.33%0.00%100.55110.55%1.06%90.760-9
Antonio Brown 76.45%0.00%100.1524.92%1.59%94.556-4
Cedrick Wilson Jr. (MIA) 137.27%0.00%98.9536.44%0.97%96.355-2
Braxton Berrios (NYJ) 163.08%28.57%98.1544.01%23.21%99.553 +1
Byron Pringle (CHI) 159.62% 0.00% 97.7557.38%0.00%90.759-4
Robbie Anderson (CAR) 164.55%0.00%97.5564.27%4.68%96.554 +2
Mecole Hardman (KC) 162.78%0.00%96.1574.39%4.57%105.049 +8
Jarvis Landry (NO) 112.33%33.33%90.5583.28%27.45%93.357 +1
Deonte Harty (NO) 125.08%0.00%90.3594.06%1.99%87.362-3
Kalif Raymond (DET) 155.63%0.00%89.0604.80%0.96%85.764-4
Corey Davis (NYJ) 96.78% 0.00% 88.2615.04%0.00%82.068-7
Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) 135.17% 0.00% 87.4624.60%0.00%85.465-3
Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC) 150.00%0.00%86.8632.08%1.38%100.252 +11
Bryan Edwards (ATL) 155.08%0.00%83.8645.23%0.66%84.466-2
Rondale Moore (ARI) 141.52%0.00%82.1653.32%3.41%92.958 +7
Jamison Crowder (BUF) 112.78% 0.00% 82.1664.02%0.00%87.561 +5
Nelson Agholor (NE) 144.69%0.00%82.1674.41%0.22%81.170-3
DeVante Parker (NE) 92.74% 0.00% 81.3683.26%0.00%83.667 +1
Randall Cobb (GB) 1112.82%0.00%79.66912.94%1.95%80.073-4
Quez Watkins (PHI) 160.00%0.00%77.6702.72%1.56%86.763 +7
Rashod Bateman (BAL) 111.49% 0.00% 77.3712.58%0.00%81.769 +2
Zay Jones (JAC) 141.43%0.00%77.2722.27%0.94%80.871 +1
Zach Pascal (PHI) 154.35%0.00%74.3735.84%2.28%80.872 +1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC) 105.45% 0.00% 74.0745.36%0.00%73.776-2
Michael Gallup (DAL) 93.23% 0.00% 74.0754.02%0.00%77.074 +1
Jalen Guyton (LAC) 156.25%0.00%73.5765.98%0.94%73.177-1
DeAndre Carter (LAC) 166.82%0.00%73.4775.59%1.34%71.079-2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) 147.02% 0.00% 72.8787.01%0.00%72.878 0
Henry Ruggs III 75.56%0.00%72.5793.62%3.34%68.981-2
Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL) 145.66%0.00%68.1805.79%0.63%68.682-2
Kenny Golladay (NYG) 130.00% 0.00% 66.9812.14%0.00%76.775 +6
DeSean Jackson 145.88%0.00%65.8823.71%0.00%61.492-10
Freddie Swain (SEA) 1610.00%0.00%65.0837.13%0.53%58.397-14
Josh Reynolds (DET) 104.08% 0.00% 64.5844.11%0.00%64.688-4
Jamal Agnew (JAC) 122.50%14.29%64.0853.32%7.69%63.289-4
Joshua Palmer (LAC) 148.16%0.00%63.9867.63%0.63%62.491-5
Kadarius Toney (NYG) 90.00%0.00%62.9871.92%4.93%70.480 +7
Allen Robinson II (LAR) 111.52% 0.00% 62.8882.61%0.00%67.184 +4
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 90.00%0.00%62.0891.80%0.00%67.583 +6
Devin Duvernay (BAL) 154.26%0.00%60.5905.11%0.53%63.190 0
Sterling Shepard (NYG) 71.89%0.00%59.7913.87%0.00%66.085 +6
Nico Collins (HOU) 131.64% 0.00% 58.9923.40%0.00%65.387 +5
Adam Humphries 160.00% 0.00% 58.0932.11%0.00%65.986 +7
T.Y. Hilton 98.11% 0.00% 57.7946.52%0.00%54.2103-9
Jalen Reagor (PHI) 163.70%0.00%57.7954.00%1.05%59.195 0
Sammy Watkins (GB) 102.04% 0.00% 56.9962.62%0.00%58.696 0
Laquon Treadwell (JAC) 111.96% 0.00% 56.0973.59%0.00%61.093 +4
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 53.85% 0.00% 55.6985.41%0.00%60.594 +4
Tre'Quan Smith (NO) 96.00% 0.00% 55.6996.47%0.00%57.099 0
James Washington (DAL) 154.55%0.00%53.81005.37%1.39%56.2100 0
Chris Conley (HOU) 145.41%0.00%53.61014.10%1.59%50.8106-5
Demarcus Robinson (LV) 148.57% 0.00% 53.51026.69%0.00%49.5108-6
Mack Hollins (LV) 1514.29% 0.00% 53.310312.27%0.00%49.9107-4
Keelan Cole Sr. (LV) 131.96% 0.00% 52.01042.97%0.00%55.1102 +2
Julio Jones 92.08% 0.00% 50.61053.88%0.00%55.8101 +4
Tyler Johnson (TB) 150.00% 0.00% 49.31062.53%0.00%57.798 +8
Chester Rogers 152.33%0.00%48.61073.33%0.77%51.2105 +2
Jauan Jennings (SF) 1212.82% 0.00% 45.81089.83%0.00%38.8118-10
Darius Slayton (NYG) 123.45%0.00%45.71092.92%0.00%43.9112-3
Antoine Wesley (ARI) 79.38% 0.00% 45.61108.38%0.00%43.7113-3
Rashard Higgins (CAR) 122.13% 0.00% 45.51113.15%0.00%48.4110 +1
Marquise Goodwin (SEA) 132.50%0.00%44.91123.35%13.33%48.5109 +3
Damiere Byrd (ATL) 102.63% 0.00% 44.71133.67%0.00%47.1111 +2
Ray-Ray McCloud (SF) 150.00%0.00%41.01142.54%4.41%51.6104 +10
Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) 143.85%11.11%40.11155.23%9.46%41.4115 0
Tavon Austin 122.63%0.00%39.41162.83%2.63%40.3116 0
Tajae Sharpe (CHI) 130.00% 0.00% 35.51172.66%0.00%41.4114 +3
Albert Wilson 100.00%0.00%35.51181.45%1.06%39.1117 +1
Danny Amendola 78.11% 0.00% 28.01195.79%0.00%22.9122-3
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) 50.00%33.33%27.31200.82%25.56%27.3121-1
Terrace Marshall Jr. (CAR) 120.00% 0.00% 24.31212.53%0.00%28.9119 +2
KhaDarel Hodge (ATL) 120.00% 0.00% 24.21222.88%0.00%28.9120 +2