Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 16 | 9.71% | 0.00% | 318.9 | 1 | 8.44% | 0.18% | 305.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 16 | 6.49% | 0.00% | 259.1 | 2 | 6.20% | 1.76% | 256.5 | 2 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 16 | 8.39% | 0.00% | 248.0 | 3 | 7.82% | 4.51% | 243.6 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 7.52% | 0.00% | 226.7 | 4 | 6.29% | 0.53% | 217.1 | 4 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 15 | 3.95% | 0.00% | 212.9 | 5 | 3.92% | 1.03% | 213.5 | 5 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 16 | 11.11% | 0.00% | 210.6 | 6 | 8.12% | 0.00% | 189.6 | 11 | -5 |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 14 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 204.2 | 7 | 4.44% | 2.96% | 208.4 | 6 | +1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 16 | 4.38% | 0.00% | 199.7 | 8 | 4.51% | 1.13% | 201.1 | 7 | +1 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 16 | 5.66% | 0.00% | 195.1 | 9 | 5.84% | 0.00% | 196.9 | 9 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 16 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 194.3 | 10 | 5.01% | 0.00% | 198.6 | 8 | +2 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 13 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 190.0 | 11 | 8.01% | 0.00% | 176.9 | 15 | -4 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 16 | 2.76% | 0.00% | 186.6 | 12 | 3.22% | 0.00% | 190.6 | 10 | +2 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 15 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 185.9 | 13 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 178.3 | 14 | -1 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 13 | 7.22% | 0.00% | 183.4 | 14 | 5.87% | 0.00% | 175.6 | 17 | -3 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 181.5 | 15 | 5.64% | 0.00% | 179.5 | 13 | +2 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 13 | 5.67% | 0.00% | 181.0 | 16 | 6.45% | 0.00% | 187.6 | 12 | +4 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 14 | 9.09% | 33.33% | 180.5 | 17 | 7.75% | 20.61% | 170.2 | 22 | -5 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 11 | 9.17% | 0.00% | 178.3 | 18 | 8.60% | 0.00% | 174.6 | 18 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 14 | 7.69% | 9.09% | 176.8 | 19 | 6.15% | 7.57% | 167.4 | 23 | -4 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 16 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 174.7 | 20 | 5.13% | 0.44% | 176.7 | 16 | +4 |
| DJ Moore (CHI) | 16 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 171.5 | 21 | 4.37% | 0.38% | 172.5 | 19 | +2 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 16 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 169.9 | 22 | 3.58% | 1.41% | 171.6 | 20 | +2 |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 11 | 2.83% | 9.09% | 167.1 | 23 | 3.45% | 9.02% | 171.0 | 21 | +2 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 16 | 8.00% | 5.00% | 165.4 | 24 | 6.85% | 4.00% | 159.0 | 26 | -2 |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI) | 13 | 8.99% | 0.00% | 165.4 | 25 | 7.03% | 5.17% | 155.3 | 30 | -5 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 11 | 7.07% | 0.00% | 164.3 | 26 | 6.54% | 0.00% | 161.1 | 25 | +1 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 14 | 5.31% | 0.00% | 163.3 | 27 | 5.40% | 0.00% | 163.9 | 24 | +3 |
| Darnell Mooney (ATL) | 16 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 161.2 | 28 | 4.06% | 0.00% | 157.5 | 27 | +1 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 16 | 3.33% | 12.50% | 158.4 | 29 | 3.36% | 8.97% | 156.9 | 29 | 0 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 16 | 6.12% | 15.00% | 157.7 | 30 | 6.00% | 11.33% | 152.6 | 31 | -1 |
| Jakobi Meyers (JAC) | 14 | 3.10% | 0.00% | 151.7 | 31 | 3.84% | 0.27% | 157.4 | 28 | +3 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 16 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 150.7 | 32 | 5.71% | 0.00% | 142.5 | 35 | -3 |
| Keenan Allen (LAC) | 14 | 5.74% | 0.00% | 147.4 | 33 | 5.32% | 0.00% | 144.4 | 33 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 14 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 145.4 | 34 | 4.27% | 0.00% | 143.1 | 34 | 0 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | 15 | 4.00% | 0.00% | 144.5 | 35 | 4.01% | 2.47% | 144.8 | 32 | +3 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA) | 12 | 5.94% | 0.00% | 141.5 | 36 | 5.37% | 2.86% | 138.4 | 37 | -1 |
| Rashod Bateman (BAL) | 16 | 12.50% | 0.00% | 136.0 | 37 | 8.63% | 0.00% | 119.3 | 44 | -7 |
| George Pickens (DAL) | 13 | 2.91% | 0.00% | 134.4 | 38 | 4.15% | 0.88% | 142.2 | 36 | +2 |
| Josh Downs (IND) | 13 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 133.1 | 39 | 4.84% | 0.00% | 134.5 | 40 | -1 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 15 | 10.14% | 0.00% | 130.2 | 40 | 7.24% | 0.00% | 118.2 | 46 | -6 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. (WAS) | 15 | 3.66% | 2.38% | 128.1 | 41 | 4.46% | 4.59% | 137.6 | 38 | +3 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) | 16 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 126.9 | 42 | 3.31% | 0.40% | 137.0 | 39 | +3 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 14 | 8.79% | 0.00% | 122.1 | 43 | 6.58% | 0.00% | 110.0 | 48 | -5 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | 15 | 2.68% | 0.00% | 121.1 | 44 | 3.09% | 0.00% | 123.8 | 41 | +3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (BAL) | 16 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 119.0 | 45 | 6.14% | 0.00% | 118.5 | 45 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 16 | 8.86% | 0.00% | 115.7 | 46 | 7.42% | 0.00% | 108.9 | 50 | -4 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 16 | 2.97% | 0.00% | 115.1 | 47 | 4.06% | 0.40% | 121.8 | 42 | +5 |
| Tank Dell (HOU) | 14 | 3.70% | 0.00% | 114.5 | 48 | 4.03% | 1.32% | 116.8 | 47 | +1 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 15 | 2.41% | 0.00% | 113.6 | 49 | 3.49% | 4.52% | 120.1 | 43 | +6 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. (TB) | 7 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 112.8 | 50 | 6.54% | 0.00% | 107.1 | 51 | -1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (MIA) | 16 | 15.00% | 0.00% | 112.7 | 51 | 10.58% | 0.00% | 96.8 | 60 | -9 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 16 | 3.41% | 0.00% | 109.8 | 52 | 3.39% | 0.00% | 109.7 | 49 | +3 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 13 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 109.1 | 53 | 5.09% | 0.00% | 107.1 | 52 | +1 |
| Adam Thielen (PIT) | 9 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 108.6 | 54 | 5.89% | 0.00% | 100.5 | 54 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III (PIT) | 16 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 102.8 | 55 | 5.19% | 0.00% | 96.9 | 59 | -4 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 16 | 3.70% | 11.11% | 101.9 | 56 | 3.24% | 9.84% | 99.0 | 55 | +1 |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | 16 | 5.63% | 0.00% | 101.0 | 57 | 5.03% | 0.54% | 98.4 | 56 | +1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud III | 16 | 1.15% | 0.00% | 100.9 | 58 | 1.97% | 1.77% | 106.2 | 53 | +5 |
| Amari Cooper | 14 | 4.71% | 0.00% | 100.7 | 59 | 3.91% | 0.00% | 96.6 | 61 | -2 |
| Jalen McMillan (TB) | 12 | 13.79% | 0.00% | 100.4 | 60 | 9.70% | 1.59% | 86.5 | 70 | -10 |
| Andrei Iosivas (CIN) | 16 | 9.84% | 0.00% | 99.7 | 61 | 8.84% | 0.00% | 96.1 | 62 | -1 |
| Demarcus Robinson (SF) | 16 | 10.94% | 0.00% | 99.3 | 62 | 9.25% | 0.00% | 92.8 | 66 | -4 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 8 | 4.69% | 33.33% | 98.4 | 63 | 4.46% | 21.20% | 95.3 | 63 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette (CAR) | 15 | 4.71% | 0.00% | 96.1 | 64 | 4.80% | 0.71% | 96.9 | 58 | +6 |
| Allen Lazard (NYJ) | 11 | 9.84% | 0.00% | 92.9 | 65 | 7.75% | 0.00% | 85.3 | 71 | -6 |
| Tyler Lockett (LV) | 16 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 92.7 | 66 | 3.89% | 0.00% | 98.0 | 57 | +9 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | 12 | 7.02% | 0.00% | 92.0 | 67 | 6.86% | 0.39% | 91.5 | 69 | -2 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 14 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 90.8 | 68 | 4.36% | 1.76% | 93.1 | 64 | +4 |
| Darius Slayton (NYG) | 15 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 90.5 | 69 | 2.99% | 8.51% | 92.5 | 67 | +2 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) | 16 | 11.54% | 0.00% | 90.4 | 70 | 8.07% | 0.88% | 80.3 | 75 | -5 |
| Joshua Palmer (BUF) | 15 | 1.54% | 0.00% | 87.9 | 71 | 2.68% | 0.00% | 92.4 | 68 | +3 |
| Elijah Moore (DEN) | 16 | 0.96% | 0.00% | 85.3 | 72 | 2.20% | 0.00% | 93.0 | 65 | +7 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus (CHI) | 16 | 4.69% | 0.00% | 83.8 | 73 | 4.80% | 0.00% | 84.2 | 72 | +1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | 16 | 6.58% | 0.00% | 83.6 | 74 | 6.30% | 0.00% | 82.3 | 74 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor (MIN) | 16 | 13.95% | 0.00% | 82.2 | 75 | 10.11% | 10.65% | 74.2 | 79 | -4 |
| KaVontae Turpin (DAL) | 16 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 81.4 | 76 | 4.40% | 0.76% | 83.9 | 73 | +3 |
| Mack Hollins (NE) | 16 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 79.3 | 77 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 73.5 | 81 | -4 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | 14 | 4.41% | 0.00% | 79.2 | 78 | 4.00% | 0.00% | 77.5 | 76 | +2 |
| Tim Patrick (JAC) | 15 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 73.4 | 79 | 7.05% | 0.00% | 74.0 | 80 | -1 |
| Devaughn Vele (NO) | 12 | 5.45% | 0.00% | 73.0 | 80 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 71.2 | 82 | -2 |
| Parker Washington (JAC) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 72.5 | 81 | 5.25% | 0.00% | 70.6 | 84 | -3 |
| Tutu Atwell (LAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 71.7 | 82 | 1.28% | 3.52% | 76.9 | 77 | +5 |
| Diontae Johnson | 11 | 4.48% | 0.00% | 70.4 | 83 | 5.74% | 1.23% | 75.6 | 78 | +5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling (PIT) | 13 | 8.89% | 0.00% | 70.2 | 84 | 6.40% | 0.00% | 63.5 | 91 | -7 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | 6 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 69.8 | 85 | 5.66% | 2.59% | 67.0 | 88 | -3 |
| Noah Brown (WAS) | 11 | 1.75% | 0.00% | 68.8 | 86 | 2.39% | 0.00% | 71.0 | 83 | +3 |
| Jalen Coker (CAR) | 10 | 4.35% | 0.00% | 66.1 | 87 | 5.16% | 0.00% | 68.3 | 86 | +1 |
| Cedric Tillman (CLE) | 11 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 65.9 | 88 | 5.22% | 0.00% | 63.2 | 92 | -4 |
| Sterling Shepard (TB) | 13 | 1.96% | 0.00% | 62.7 | 89 | 3.52% | 2.67% | 68.8 | 85 | +4 |
| Ricky Pearsall (SF) | 10 | 6.52% | 0.00% | 62.1 | 90 | 5.64% | 1.72% | 60.0 | 94 | -4 |
| David Moore (CAR) | 16 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 61.7 | 91 | 5.73% | 26.79% | 64.9 | 89 | +2 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 8 | 2.27% | 0.00% | 60.7 | 92 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 63.8 | 90 | +2 |
| Tyler Boyd | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 58.8 | 93 | 2.44% | 1.76% | 67.4 | 87 | +6 |
| Christian Kirk (HOU) | 8 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 57.4 | 94 | 3.46% | 0.00% | 61.2 | 93 | +1 |
| Brandin Cooks (BUF) | 9 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 54.1 | 95 | 6.23% | 2.78% | 56.8 | 95 | 0 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 4 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 52.9 | 96 | 4.79% | 1.19% | 49.6 | 104 | -8 |
| Greg Dortch (ARI) | 16 | 6.00% | 0.00% | 52.4 | 97 | 5.66% | 3.54% | 52.5 | 97 | 0 |
| Justin Watson (HOU) | 16 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 50.9 | 98 | 5.27% | 0.00% | 49.0 | 105 | -7 |
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | 15 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 50.9 | 99 | 4.17% | 0.60% | 52.2 | 98 | +1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 49.9 | 100 | 2.25% | 0.00% | 56.4 | 96 | +4 |
| Kendrick Bourne (SF) | 11 | 2.63% | 0.00% | 48.9 | 101 | 2.95% | 0.00% | 49.6 | 102 | -1 |
| Dyami Brown (JAC) | 15 | 2.50% | 0.00% | 48.5 | 102 | 3.64% | 0.99% | 51.4 | 100 | +2 |
| Van Jefferson (TEN) | 16 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 48.3 | 103 | 6.36% | 0.00% | 51.6 | 99 | +4 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN) | 16 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 45.2 | 104 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 49.6 | 103 | +1 |
| Gabe Davis (BUF) | 10 | 6.98% | 0.00% | 43.9 | 105 | 7.47% | 0.00% | 45.2 | 106 | -1 |
| Mike Williams | 17 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 43.3 | 106 | 3.44% | 0.00% | 44.3 | 108 | -2 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) | 13 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 43.2 | 107 | 7.51% | 0.00% | 42.9 | 110 | -3 |
| Adonai Mitchell (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 42.3 | 108 | 2.09% | 3.05% | 49.9 | 101 | +7 |
| Nelson Agholor | 14 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 42.1 | 109 | 5.31% | 0.00% | 39.3 | 112 | -3 |
| John Metchie III (NYJ) | 12 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 40.0 | 110 | 4.82% | 0.00% | 44.7 | 107 | +3 |
| Curtis Samuel (BUF) | 13 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 39.5 | 111 | 3.49% | 2.72% | 43.9 | 109 | +2 |
| DJ Turner (LV) | 13 | 3.45% | 20.00% | 39.1 | 112 | 3.39% | 13.38% | 37.0 | 114 | -2 |
| Tyler Johnson (NYJ) | 14 | 2.44% | 0.00% | 36.6 | 113 | 4.87% | 0.00% | 42.6 | 111 | +2 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. (MIA) | 14 | 3.70% | 0.00% | 36.2 | 114 | 3.03% | 2.47% | 35.3 | 115 | -1 |
| Malik Washington (MIA) | 13 | 0.00% | 20.00% | 35.0 | 115 | 2.17% | 11.49% | 37.3 | 113 | +2 |
| Jordan Whittington (LAR) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.2 | 116 | 2.12% | 0.20% | 33.8 | 116 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks (ARI) | 13 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 29.7 | 117 | 4.32% | 0.00% | 31.5 | 117 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk (NO) | 15 | 6.06% | 0.00% | 26.7 | 118 | 5.80% | 5.86% | 26.5 | 119 | -1 |
| Robert Woods | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.4 | 119 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 29.3 | 118 | +1 |
| Jonathan Mingo (DAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.3 | 120 | 1.30% | 0.00% | 23.6 | 120 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson (PHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.5 | 121 | 1.04% | 0.00% | 21.6 | 121 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis (NO) | 7 | 3.57% | 0.00% | 17.4 | 122 | 4.42% | 0.00% | 18.8 | 123 | -1 |
| Mason Tipton (NO) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.9 | 123 | 1.19% | 0.00% | 18.8 | 124 | -1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.7 | 124 | 2.11% | 0.00% | 20.0 | 122 | +2 |
