Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 15 | 6.02% | 10.00% | 289.5 | 1 | 5.36% | 6.94% | 281.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 16 | 6.13% | 0.00% | 289.0 | 2 | 5.17% | 0.00% | 279.5 | 2 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 16 | 6.40% | 0.00% | 246.1 | 3 | 6.79% | 0.83% | 250.3 | 3 | 0 |
| George Pickens (DAL) | 16 | 6.57% | 0.00% | 244.0 | 4 | 6.36% | 0.00% | 242.3 | 4 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 15 | 4.32% | 0.00% | 231.5 | 5 | 4.46% | 0.15% | 233.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 16 | 5.77% | 0.00% | 219.0 | 6 | 4.89% | 0.00% | 210.8 | 6 | 0 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 14 | 12.28% | 0.00% | 192.9 | 7 | 11.37% | 0.00% | 186.7 | 8 | -1 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 15 | 4.96% | 50.00% | 190.7 | 8 | 5.41% | 31.76% | 191.8 | 7 | +1 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 16 | 5.65% | 0.00% | 181.7 | 9 | 5.67% | 0.00% | 181.9 | 9 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 15 | 5.79% | 0.00% | 181.3 | 10 | 5.01% | 0.00% | 175.7 | 11 | -1 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 16 | 6.86% | 0.00% | 177.0 | 11 | 5.60% | 2.50% | 170.2 | 13 | -2 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 16 | 4.24% | 10.00% | 172.5 | 12 | 4.00% | 6.12% | 168.5 | 14 | -2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) | 16 | 2.84% | 0.00% | 171.9 | 13 | 3.36% | 0.39% | 176.4 | 10 | +3 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 16 | 5.74% | 0.00% | 167.9 | 14 | 5.27% | 0.00% | 164.5 | 16 | -2 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 14 | 11.22% | 0.00% | 166.4 | 15 | 8.78% | 0.00% | 152.1 | 24 | -9 |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | 16 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 163.2 | 16 | 4.86% | 0.00% | 158.0 | 19 | -3 |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 16 | 4.72% | 0.00% | 162.9 | 17 | 4.33% | 0.22% | 159.9 | 18 | -1 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 13 | 2.56% | 0.00% | 162.5 | 18 | 4.00% | 1.16% | 172.6 | 12 | +6 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 16 | 6.00% | 0.00% | 162.1 | 19 | 5.27% | 0.44% | 157.8 | 20 | -1 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 16 | 3.92% | 0.00% | 162.0 | 20 | 4.58% | 0.00% | 166.0 | 15 | +5 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | 16 | 6.31% | 0.00% | 160.3 | 21 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 157.5 | 21 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 15 | 6.06% | 50.00% | 157.7 | 22 | 5.89% | 31.76% | 154.5 | 23 | -1 |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI) | 16 | 3.54% | 0.00% | 156.6 | 23 | 3.66% | 0.00% | 157.4 | 22 | +1 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 11 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 152.1 | 24 | 5.90% | 0.00% | 149.8 | 26 | -2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. (WAS) | 15 | 5.05% | 5.88% | 149.1 | 25 | 5.25% | 6.49% | 150.9 | 25 | 0 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 16 | 5.61% | 0.00% | 147.9 | 26 | 5.62% | 0.00% | 148.0 | 27 | -1 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 14 | 9.41% | 0.00% | 145.7 | 27 | 7.62% | 0.31% | 136.6 | 34 | -7 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 16 | 1.42% | 0.00% | 145.1 | 28 | 3.27% | 0.00% | 160.8 | 17 | +11 |
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | 16 | 5.77% | 0.00% | 144.6 | 29 | 5.77% | 0.00% | 144.6 | 28 | +1 |
| DJ Moore (CHI) | 16 | 7.06% | 6.67% | 143.6 | 30 | 6.58% | 5.35% | 140.0 | 31 | -1 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 14 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 140.3 | 31 | 8.64% | 0.00% | 132.9 | 35 | -4 |
| Parker Washington (JAC) | 15 | 5.21% | 0.00% | 138.5 | 32 | 4.98% | 4.01% | 138.9 | 32 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 16 | 7.06% | 0.00% | 137.9 | 33 | 7.05% | 0.00% | 137.9 | 33 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen (LAC) | 16 | 3.28% | 0.00% | 135.1 | 34 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 141.6 | 29 | +5 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 14 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 132.6 | 35 | 5.47% | 0.00% | 124.2 | 40 | -5 |
| Jakobi Meyers (JAC) | 15 | 2.73% | 0.00% | 131.4 | 36 | 3.79% | 6.83% | 140.5 | 30 | +6 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | 16 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 130.4 | 37 | 4.43% | 0.63% | 132.0 | 37 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 16 | 5.43% | 0.00% | 128.8 | 38 | 4.96% | 1.09% | 126.9 | 39 | -1 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | 17 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 126.4 | 39 | 3.05% | 1.35% | 132.0 | 36 | +3 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 12 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 124.1 | 40 | 6.11% | 0.00% | 121.1 | 41 | -1 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 8 | 6.41% | 20.00% | 123.6 | 41 | 7.72% | 23.07% | 130.7 | 38 | +3 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 10 | 10.91% | 0.00% | 114.9 | 42 | 7.84% | 2.05% | 104.9 | 45 | -3 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 13 | 3.80% | 50.00% | 112.8 | 43 | 4.87% | 25.80% | 115.0 | 42 | +1 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) | 13 | 2.20% | 33.33% | 108.4 | 44 | 3.12% | 21.38% | 111.3 | 43 | +1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 12 | 5.48% | 0.00% | 107.3 | 45 | 5.53% | 0.00% | 107.5 | 44 | +1 |
| Marquise Brown (KC) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 105.3 | 46 | 6.21% | 0.00% | 103.3 | 46 | 0 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | 13 | 13.04% | 0.00% | 104.2 | 47 | 8.60% | 0.00% | 91.9 | 55 | -8 |
| Josh Downs (IND) | 15 | 4.49% | 0.00% | 99.8 | 48 | 4.96% | 1.45% | 102.5 | 47 | +1 |
| Jayden Higgins (HOU) | 16 | 8.82% | 0.00% | 99.7 | 49 | 6.97% | 0.00% | 92.1 | 54 | -5 |
| Luther Burden III (CHI) | 14 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 98.4 | 50 | 3.05% | 1.14% | 97.8 | 50 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike (TEN) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 97.9 | 51 | 5.56% | 5.12% | 102.0 | 48 | +3 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 16 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 92.5 | 52 | 2.79% | 0.00% | 98.2 | 49 | +3 |
| Mack Hollins (NE) | 15 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 90.4 | 53 | 3.56% | 0.00% | 92.3 | 53 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA) | 15 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 89.9 | 54 | 4.18% | 0.00% | 95.5 | 51 | +3 |
| Elic Ayomanor (TEN) | 15 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 89.5 | 55 | 4.33% | 0.00% | 88.9 | 56 | -1 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 14 | 1.37% | 0.00% | 88.9 | 56 | 2.41% | 0.47% | 93.8 | 52 | +4 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 9 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 87.5 | 57 | 4.95% | 0.00% | 87.3 | 57 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy (DAL) | 14 | 7.02% | 0.00% | 84.7 | 58 | 6.44% | 1.13% | 83.0 | 59 | -1 |
| Malik Washington (MIA) | 16 | 4.62% | 5.88% | 83.4 | 59 | 5.53% | 4.95% | 86.0 | 58 | +1 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 7 | 6.78% | 0.00% | 81.5 | 60 | 4.86% | 0.00% | 74.7 | 66 | -6 |
| Jalen Nailor (MIN) | 16 | 7.55% | 0.00% | 79.8 | 61 | 7.51% | 0.58% | 79.7 | 60 | +1 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 16 | 6.52% | 0.00% | 76.4 | 62 | 6.30% | 0.92% | 76.2 | 64 | -2 |
| Tez Johnson (TB) | 15 | 11.36% | 0.00% | 75.9 | 63 | 8.05% | 1.49% | 67.9 | 76 | -13 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | 12 | 6.78% | 0.00% | 75.5 | 64 | 6.44% | 0.00% | 74.3 | 67 | -3 |
| Kendrick Bourne (SF) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 73.6 | 65 | 1.55% | 0.00% | 78.5 | 61 | +4 |
| Darius Slayton (NYG) | 13 | 1.59% | 0.00% | 72.9 | 66 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 77.7 | 62 | +4 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) | 15 | 1.96% | 8.33% | 72.5 | 67 | 2.48% | 5.70% | 72.2 | 69 | -2 |
| Andrei Iosivas (CIN) | 16 | 3.39% | 0.00% | 71.4 | 68 | 4.50% | 0.21% | 75.4 | 65 | +3 |
| Adonai Mitchell (NYJ) | 15 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 71.4 | 69 | 3.01% | 2.90% | 72.9 | 68 | +1 |
| Tyquan Thornton (KC) | 14 | 8.11% | 0.00% | 71.3 | 70 | 6.49% | 0.00% | 67.7 | 77 | -7 |
| KaVontae Turpin (DAL) | 14 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 70.8 | 71 | 4.76% | 0.78% | 70.5 | 71 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall (SF) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 70.6 | 72 | 2.02% | 0.31% | 77.2 | 63 | +9 |
| Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) | 16 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 69.6 | 73 | 5.51% | 0.68% | 70.6 | 70 | +3 |
| Xavier Legette (CAR) | 14 | 4.69% | 0.00% | 68.1 | 74 | 5.09% | 0.00% | 69.6 | 73 | +1 |
| Isaac TeSlaa (DET) | 16 | 22.22% | 0.00% | 65.6 | 75 | 16.38% | 0.00% | 56.1 | 86 | -11 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 7 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 65.4 | 76 | 5.52% | 0.00% | 67.6 | 78 | -2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus (CHI) | 15 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 65.3 | 77 | 4.26% | 0.72% | 70.1 | 72 | +5 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. (TB) | 8 | 3.92% | 0.00% | 65.2 | 78 | 4.90% | 0.00% | 68.2 | 75 | +3 |
| Darnell Mooney (ATL) | 14 | 1.39% | 0.00% | 62.8 | 79 | 2.82% | 0.00% | 69.0 | 74 | +5 |
| Sterling Shepard (TB) | 13 | 1.89% | 0.00% | 62.5 | 80 | 3.25% | 1.02% | 67.1 | 79 | +1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | 14 | 4.26% | 0.00% | 60.8 | 81 | 3.94% | 0.00% | 59.9 | 81 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch (ARI) | 12 | 9.09% | 14.29% | 60.6 | 82 | 7.25% | 11.75% | 55.9 | 87 | -5 |
| Jalen Coker (CAR) | 10 | 6.98% | 0.00% | 60.2 | 83 | 5.24% | 0.00% | 55.7 | 88 | -5 |
| Calvin Austin III (PIT) | 13 | 5.45% | 0.00% | 57.7 | 84 | 4.54% | 0.00% | 54.7 | 89 | -5 |
| Tyler Lockett (LV) | 16 | 1.82% | 0.00% | 56.1 | 85 | 2.46% | 0.00% | 58.2 | 84 | +1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (BAL) | 16 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 56.0 | 86 | 4.47% | 0.00% | 54.5 | 92 | -6 |
| Van Jefferson (TEN) | 16 | 1.92% | 0.00% | 55.5 | 87 | 2.31% | 0.00% | 56.7 | 85 | +2 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) | 16 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 54.7 | 88 | 4.31% | 0.00% | 60.3 | 80 | +8 |
| Pat Bryant (DEN) | 14 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 54.2 | 89 | 3.83% | 0.00% | 59.5 | 82 | +7 |
| Matthew Golden (GB) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 54.2 | 90 | 1.34% | 1.68% | 58.8 | 83 | +7 |
| Devaughn Vele (NO) | 13 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 53.8 | 91 | 5.44% | 0.00% | 54.5 | 91 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel (HOU) | 16 | 5.71% | 0.00% | 53.6 | 92 | 5.75% | 2.57% | 54.6 | 90 | +2 |
| John Metchie III (NYJ) | 15 | 4.17% | 0.00% | 51.9 | 93 | 3.87% | 0.89% | 51.2 | 95 | -2 |
| Tre Harris (LAC) | 16 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 50.6 | 94 | 2.86% | 1.77% | 52.2 | 94 | 0 |
| Travis Hunter (JAC) | 7 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 49.8 | 95 | 3.44% | 2.05% | 53.2 | 93 | +2 |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 4 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 48.1 | 96 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 48.1 | 99 | -3 |
| Kalif Raymond (DET) | 14 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 48.1 | 97 | 3.33% | 0.22% | 48.1 | 98 | -1 |
| Cedric Tillman (CLE) | 12 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 46.7 | 98 | 4.91% | 0.00% | 46.2 | 102 | -4 |
| Rashod Bateman (BAL) | 13 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 45.9 | 99 | 5.97% | 0.00% | 47.9 | 100 | -1 |
| Christian Kirk (HOU) | 12 | 1.92% | 0.00% | 43.7 | 100 | 3.63% | 0.00% | 49.0 | 97 | +3 |
| Isaiah Bond (CLE) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 43.5 | 101 | 2.29% | 0.09% | 49.7 | 96 | +5 |
| Demarcus Robinson (SF) | 13 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 43.3 | 102 | 3.76% | 0.44% | 45.2 | 103 | -1 |
| Tyreek Hill | 4 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 43.0 | 103 | 3.89% | 0.00% | 43.8 | 107 | -4 |
| Jaylin Lane (WAS) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 41.2 | 104 | 1.46% | 0.00% | 44.0 | 104 | 0 |
| Isaiah Williams (NYJ) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 40.8 | 105 | 1.41% | 0.15% | 43.9 | 106 | -1 |
| Joshua Palmer (BUF) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 40.7 | 106 | 2.48% | 0.00% | 46.2 | 101 | +5 |
| Brandin Cooks (BUF) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 39.9 | 107 | 1.43% | 0.00% | 43.0 | 108 | -1 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.8 | 108 | 1.38% | 0.00% | 41.8 | 109 | -1 |
| David Sills V (ATL) | 16 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 38.5 | 109 | 5.53% | 0.00% | 38.4 | 111 | -2 |
| Dyami Brown (JAC) | 14 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 38.4 | 110 | 4.79% | 2.59% | 44.0 | 105 | +5 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 12 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 37.3 | 111 | 3.87% | 0.00% | 39.2 | 110 | +1 |
| Jahan Dotson (PHI) | 16 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 35.7 | 112 | 3.28% | 0.00% | 36.8 | 112 | 0 |
| Jack Bech (LV) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 32.4 | 113 | 1.66% | 0.00% | 35.3 | 113 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 6 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 28.4 | 114 | 8.02% | 0.00% | 28.9 | 114 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 24.3 | 115 | 1.44% | 0.00% | 27.3 | 115 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling (PIT) | 9 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 19.1 | 116 | 4.23% | 0.00% | 20.5 | 117 | -1 |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. (LV) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 18.5 | 117 | 1.26% | 0.00% | 20.8 | 116 | +1 |
