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Touchdown Regression Report

2023 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)166.63%14.29%306.716.52%11.04%302.81 0
Tyreek Hill (MIA)157.60%0.00%299.226.72%1.39%290.72 0
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)156.02%0.00%247.535.45%2.84%242.53 0
Mike Evans (TB)169.56% 0.00% 239.347.24%0.00%220.48-4
A.J. Brown (PHI)164.43% 0.00% 237.254.37%0.00%236.65 0
Puka Nacua (LAR)163.75%0.00%233.963.96%2.61%237.84 +2
DJ Moore (CHI)165.88%25.00%230.175.05%15.25%220.97 0
Keenan Allen (CHI)134.67%0.00%224.984.36%6.01%222.96 +2
Deebo Samuel (SF)147.87%13.51%209.596.47%10.15%194.614-5
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN)154.83%0.00%208.8104.89%0.00%209.39 +1
Stefon Diggs (HOU)165.00%0.00%208.1114.31%11.54%202.211 0
Brandon Aiyuk (SF)156.67% 0.00% 207.7125.22%0.00%198.612 0
Davante Adams (LV)164.57% 0.00% 200.8135.13%0.00%206.610 +3
Amari Cooper (CLE)153.91% 0.00% 191.0143.79%0.00%190.115-1
DK Metcalf (SEA)156.67% 0.00% 190.9156.48%0.00%189.516-1
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND)152.56% 0.00% 190.8163.34%0.00%198.113 +3
Nico Collins (HOU)147.34%0.00%190.4176.36%2.38%184.118-1
DeVonta Smith (PHI)166.25% 0.00% 187.1184.90%0.00%178.019-1
Adam Thielen (CAR)162.92%0.00%177.3193.76%7.01%184.617 +2
George Pickens (PIT)164.72%0.00%177.0203.88%0.36%171.724-4
Chris Olave (NO)153.62% 0.00% 174.7213.82%0.00%176.320 +1
Rashee Rice (KC)166.86%0.00%173.0226.96%0.49%173.622 0
Jordan Addison (MIN)169.26%0.00%172.6237.37%7.33%160.829-6
Calvin Ridley (TEN)165.88%0.00%172.3246.15%2.02%175.621 +3
DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)165.11%0.00%172.0254.77%9.44%170.426-1
Jayden Reed (GB)158.51%18.18%172.0267.32%11.24%160.730-4
Zay Flowers (BAL)164.63%12.50%167.9274.80%9.12%167.427 0
Jakobi Meyers (LV)157.55%50.00%163.0286.55%34.89%153.032-4
Jaylen Waddle (MIA)143.85%0.00%162.6294.24%0.47%165.128 +1
Garrett Wilson (NYJ)161.79%0.00%161.3302.90%0.32%172.623 +7
Courtland Sutton (DEN)1511.11% 0.00% 160.0318.57%0.00%146.334-3
Chris Godwin (TB)161.53%25.00%159.2323.27%14.51%170.425 +7
Terry McLaurin (WAS)163.03% 0.00% 155.1333.14%0.00%156.031 +2
Tyler Lockett (SEA)164.10% 0.00% 146.8344.29%0.00%148.233 +1
Romeo Doubs (GB)168.33% 0.00% 144.9357.22%0.00%138.537-2
Tank Dell (HOU)119.33%0.00%141.5366.64%2.13%130.839-3
Gabe Davis (JAC)168.64%0.00%138.9376.95%0.00%130.740-3
Justin Jefferson (MIN)95.00%0.00%138.2384.91%11.54%138.438 0
Cooper Kupp (LAR)125.26%0.00%134.9395.98%7.01%139.436 +3
Drake London (ATL)151.82% 0.00% 133.8403.40%0.00%144.235 +5
Brandin Cooks (DAL)159.88%0.00%133.0418.10%4.50%125.742-1
Curtis Samuel (BUF)154.40%14.29%122.2425.11%14.27%126.141 +1
Christian Kirk (JAC)123.53%0.00%121.8433.35%0.00%120.944-1
Rashid Shaheed (NO)156.67%0.00%118.6445.18%1.03%112.348-4
Josh Downs (IND)162.04% 0.00% 116.8453.08%0.00%122.943 +2
Tee Higgins (CIN)126.58% 0.00% 116.6465.83%0.00%113.247-1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA)164.30% 0.00% 115.4474.11%0.00%114.346 +1
Tyler Boyd (CIN)162.04%0.00%111.4483.02%2.01%117.445 +3
Darius Slayton (NYG)165.06% 0.00% 111.3493.49%0.00%103.953-4
Diontae Johnson (CAR)125.75% 0.00% 110.3505.14%0.00%107.151-1
Marquise Brown (KC)143.96%0.00%109.2513.85%0.40%108.650 +1
Elijah Moore (CLE)161.92%0.00%102.6523.16%1.07%110.949 +3
Josh Reynolds (DEN)157.81% 0.00% 101.9537.16%0.00%99.455-2
Jerry Jeudy (CLE)152.30% 0.00% 99.4543.50%0.00%105.652 +2
Jahan Dotson (WAS)164.82% 0.00% 97.6555.30%0.00%100.054 +1
DJ Chark Jr. (CAR)147.58% 0.00% 94.4565.86%0.00%87.662-6
K.J. Osborn (NE)154.00% 0.00% 94.1574.73%0.00%97.456 +1
Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG)141.28%11.11%92.2581.94%7.01%93.057 +1
Odell Beckham Jr. 144.69% 0.00% 90.0595.39%0.00%92.758 +1
Tutu Atwell (LAR)154.48%0.00%89.6604.46%2.03%90.159 +1
Christian Watson (GB)99.43%0.00%87.3618.44%1.83%84.663-2
Noah Brown (HOU)103.64%0.00%85.1624.61%7.01%88.760 +2
Michael Wilson (ARI)125.17% 0.00% 83.0635.07%0.00%82.665-2
Kendrick Bourne (NE)87.27%0.00%81.5645.94%0.49%77.169-5
Demario Douglas (NE)130.00%0.00%80.4651.64%0.37%88.261 +4
Khalil Shakir (BUF)154.44%0.00%80.1663.81%7.01%78.868-2
Joshua Palmer (LAC)103.28%0.00%79.7674.30%0.00%83.464 +3
Alec Pierce (IND)163.08% 0.00% 79.4683.43%0.00%80.866 +2
Rondale Moore (ATL)161.61%3.57%79.4692.32%2.74%80.667 +2
Dontayvion Wicks (GB)146.90%0.00%79.2705.59%1.63%74.773-3
Justin Watson (KC)155.66% 0.00% 75.5715.18%0.00%74.075-4
Demarcus Robinson (LAR)810.26%0.00%74.4729.51%1.09%72.776-4
Trey Palmer (TB)164.41%0.00%74.2733.85%0.18%71.977-4
Kalif Raymond (DET)162.27%0.00%73.9742.90%2.18%76.571 +3
Nelson Agholor (BAL)168.89% 0.00% 73.2756.74%0.00%67.482-7
Quentin Johnston (LAC)162.99%0.00%71.7763.66%0.79%74.574 +2
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN)136.67% 0.00% 71.0775.89%0.00%68.981-4
Michael Gallup 163.51% 0.00% 70.8783.72%0.00%71.578 0
Michael Thomas (NO)101.56% 0.00% 70.3793.21%0.00%76.670 +9
Robert Woods (HOU)141.33%0.00%69.3802.90%0.49%76.472 +8
Jameson Williams (DET)124.76%33.33%68.3813.85%20.66%63.784-3
Darnell Mooney (ATL)141.64%0.00%63.4823.43%4.21%70.479 +3
Jonathan Mingo (CAR)150.00% 0.00% 63.3831.24%0.00%69.680 +3
Rashod Bateman (BAL)151.79%0.00%60.5842.87%0.49%64.283 +1
Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN)153.03%0.00%57.5852.69%2.14%58.086-1
Cedrick Wilson Jr. (NO)137.89% 0.00% 55.7867.20%0.00%54.190-4
DeVante Parker (PHI)120.00% 0.00% 54.8870.96%0.00%58.087 0
Zay Jones (JAC)83.13% 0.00% 53.4884.33%0.00%58.085 +3
Brandon Johnson (DEN)1213.33% 0.00% 53.18910.20%0.00%47.599-10
Chris Moore (ARI)160.00%0.00%52.8900.92%0.00%54.789 +1
Brandon Powell (MIN)162.27%0.00%51.9913.90%0.91%56.588 +3
Tre Tucker (LV)135.88%0.00%50.8924.89%1.53%49.796-4
Greg Dortch (ARI)154.88%0.00%50.1934.10%0.00%48.297-4
Allen Lazard (NYJ)142.04% 0.00% 48.6942.55%0.00%50.193 +1
Jalin Hyatt (NYG)150.00% 0.00% 47.8950.89%0.00%49.994 +1
Xavier Gipson (NYJ)160.00%12.50%47.3962.28%8.93%50.891 +5
JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE)112.13% 0.00% 46.5972.63%0.00%47.998-1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 162.38% 0.00% 46.0982.81%0.00%47.1100-2
Trenton Irwin (CIN)143.13% 0.00% 45.7995.23%0.00%49.895 +4
Allen Robinson II 160.00% 0.00% 45.01001.83%0.00%50.492 +8
Isaiah Hodgins (NYG)169.09% 0.00% 44.41016.99%0.00%40.2106-5
Calvin Austin III (PIT)163.33%9.09%43.41022.47%6.24%40.0107-5
Skyy Moore (KC)142.63%0.00%43.21033.97%1.72%46.6101 +2
Braxton Berrios (MIA)153.03%0.00%42.51042.98%0.00%42.4104 0
Jauan Jennings (SF)133.03% 0.00% 42.01053.38%0.00%42.7103 +2
Mike Williams (NYJ)33.85%0.00%40.71063.65%0.00%40.4105 +1
Jalen Tolbert (DAL)155.56% 0.00% 40.01075.49%0.00%39.8108-1
Kadarius Toney (KC)132.63%0.00%39.51084.10%4.20%45.6102 +6
Hunter Renfrow 150.00% 0.00% 36.01091.66%0.00%39.7109 0
Mack Hollins (BUF)120.00% 0.00% 34.11101.65%0.00%37.1110 0
Alex Erickson (LAC)73.45% 0.00% 33.31113.05%0.00%32.6113-2
Treylon Burks (TEN)100.00%0.00%31.91120.99%2.04%34.3111 +1
Van Jefferson (PIT)160.00%0.00%29.01131.30%0.00%32.4114-1
Cedric Tillman (CLE)110.00%0.00%27.91142.29%0.31%34.0112 +2
Tyler Scott (CHI)150.00%0.00%25.71152.73%0.81%31.3115 0
John Metchie III (HOU)150.00%0.00%23.21162.74%7.33%28.6116 0
Terrace Marshall Jr. (CAR)70.00% 0.00% 22.41171.45%0.00%25.3117 0
Parris Campbell (PHI)120.00% 0.00% 20.41182.39%0.00%24.3118 0