Skip to main content

Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Davante Adams (GB) 1412.00% 0.00% 300.919.92%0.00%282.11 0
Tyreek Hill (KC) 1511.11%15.38%285.428.68%10.16%261.63-1
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 164.76%0.00%265.134.68%0.48%264.32 +1
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 156.29%0.00%236.546.37%2.55%237.94 0
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 163.75%0.00%230.354.20%0.00%234.65 0
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 165.60%0.00%230.265.16%0.48%226.96 0
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) 167.75% 0.00% 229.876.72%0.00%221.87 0
Adam Thielen (MIN) 1512.96%0.00%217.0810.31%4.52%200.611-3
Tyler Lockett (SEA) 167.58% 0.00% 215.496.64%0.00%208.09 0
Mike Evans (TB) 1611.93% 0.00% 213.6109.95%0.00%200.710 0
A.J. Brown (TEN) 1410.38% 0.00% 212.5117.65%0.00%195.214-3
Allen Robinson II (CHI) 163.97%0.00%211.9124.65%2.14%218.18 +4
Robert Woods (LAR) 164.62%8.33%200.1134.31%6.79%195.513 0
Keenan Allen (LAC) 145.41%0.00%195.1145.02%0.00%191.715-1
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 155.04% 0.00% 191.5154.91%0.00%190.516-1
Amari Cooper (DAL) 163.85%0.00%190.8164.66%0.68%197.412 +4
Marvin Jones Jr. (JAC) 167.83% 0.00% 189.8176.31%0.00%179.421-4
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) 167.03% 0.00% 185.6186.11%0.00%178.623-5
Chase Claypool (PIT) 168.26%20.00%183.9197.16%17.40%175.224-5
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 164.50%10.00%180.7204.83%6.15%180.520 0
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 152.99%0.00%180.3213.73%3.23%186.617 +4
D.J. Moore (CAR) 153.39%0.00%178.5223.97%0.40%182.719 +3
Diontae Johnson (PIT) 154.86%0.00%177.8234.35%1.89%173.725-2
Robby Anderson (CAR) 162.17%0.00%176.7243.13%0.00%184.618 +6
Curtis Samuel (WAS) 153.09%4.88%173.6253.92%4.99%178.722 +3
Cole Beasley (BUF) 153.74% 0.00% 166.5264.27%0.00%169.927-1
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 152.40%0.00%162.7273.49%0.65%171.026 +1
Will Fuller V (MIA) 1110.67%0.00%162.4287.47%0.00%148.036-8
Nelson Agholor (NE) 169.76% 0.00% 161.6297.99%0.00%152.934-5
Tee Higgins (CIN) 165.56%0.00%161.1305.01%0.85%157.830 0
Corey Davis (NYJ) 145.43% 0.00% 158.9314.96%0.00%156.331 0
Chris Godwin (TB) 128.33% 0.00% 158.5327.04%0.00%152.035-3
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 125.15%33.33%154.5336.11%17.75%154.532 +1
Marquise Brown (BAL) 168.00%0.00%154.0346.55%0.67%145.438-4
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 153.64%0.00%153.1354.61%1.29%159.929 +6
Jarvis Landry (CLE) 152.97%25.00%152.0364.68%19.92%161.128 +8
Russell Gage (ATL) 163.64%0.00%145.1374.75%5.15%153.033 +4
Michael Gallup (DAL) 164.72% 0.00% 143.8385.13%0.00%146.437 +1
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) 126.67%0.00%142.5395.33%0.70%135.340-1
T.Y. Hilton (IND) 155.38% 0.00% 136.2404.88%0.00%133.442-2
Tim Patrick (DEN) 157.59% 0.00% 135.7416.84%0.00%132.144-3
DeVante Parker (MIA) 143.88% 0.00% 134.8425.20%0.00%142.939 +3
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) 146.10%0.00%134.3436.23%0.00%134.941 +2
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 162.65% 0.00% 131.6442.87%0.00%133.143 +1
Mike Williams (LAC) 155.88%0.00%129.7455.83%0.00%129.446-1
Sterling Shepard (NYG) 123.33%16.67%129.5463.93%8.66%129.945 +1
Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC) 146.33%0.00%128.1475.32%0.88%124.348-1
Keelan Cole Sr. (NYJ) 165.68%0.00%127.9485.29%1.32%125.947 +1
D.J. Chark Jr. (JAC) 135.32% 0.00% 127.1494.79%0.00%124.149 0
Christian Kirk (ARI) 147.59%0.00%122.4507.35%0.33%121.352-2
Darnell Mooney (CHI) 164.08%0.00%121.6514.39%1.62%123.850 +1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) 159.52%0.00%120.8526.54%2.75%110.258-6
Julio Jones (TEN) 94.41% 0.00% 120.6534.56%0.00%121.253 0
Gabriel Davis (BUF) 1611.29%0.00%119.4549.35%10.94%112.856-2
Darius Slayton (NYG) 163.09%0.00%116.0553.85%2.50%120.754 +1
Zach Pascal (IND) 167.04% 0.00% 114.9567.11%0.00%115.255 +1
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 140.00%0.00%113.0571.84%0.35%122.051 +6
Mecole Hardman (KC) 166.45%0.00%107.6585.35%2.04%104.060-2
Greg Ward (PHI) 167.59%0.00%106.6596.23%0.35%100.262-3
Kendrick Bourne (NE) 152.70% 0.00% 105.2604.30%0.00%112.357 +3
Hunter Renfrow (LV) 162.60% 0.00% 103.6613.64%0.00%108.459 +2
Rashard Higgins (CLE) 137.69% 0.00% 102.4626.68%0.00%99.263-1
David Moore (CAR) 1612.77%0.00%101.36310.99%1.66%97.165-2
Josh Reynolds (TEN) 162.47%0.00%98.3643.49%5.00%103.661 +3
Travis Fulgham (PHI) 135.97% 0.00% 96.9655.73%0.00%95.966-1
Antonio Brown (TB) 86.45%0.00%94.6665.58%0.33%91.468-2
Damiere Byrd (CHI) 151.30%0.00%91.4672.02%0.00%94.767 0
A.J. Green (ARI) 161.92% 0.00% 87.8683.72%0.00%99.064 +4
Tre'Quan Smith (NO) 138.00%0.00%86.1696.37%2.14%81.377-8
Scotty Miller (TB) 155.66%0.00%86.0704.34%2.05%82.274-4
Demarcus Robinson (KC) 155.08% 0.00% 85.1714.81%0.00%84.172-1
Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) 1514.71%0.00%84.67210.95%1.78%78.082-10
James Washington (PIT) 168.93% 0.00% 84.2736.98%0.00%77.783-10
Anthony Miller (HOU) 162.63%0.00%84.2744.19%0.33%91.369 +5
Breshad Perriman (DET) 125.00%0.00%84.1754.34%2.14%81.875 0
Danny Amendola 140.00%0.00%83.4761.58%0.00%89.970 +6
Jalen Guyton (LAC) 165.45%0.00%83.1774.89%0.40%81.378-1
Allen Lazard (GB) 106.52%0.00%81.3786.21%1.07%80.679-1
Randall Cobb (GB) 106.25% 0.00% 81.1796.78%0.00%82.673 +6
John Brown (LV) 95.77% 0.00% 80.3806.17%0.00%81.576 +4
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) 131.64%0.00%78.9813.37%2.37%85.771 +10
Braxton Berrios (NYJ) 165.45%0.00%78.8825.01%0.60%77.484-2
Willie Snead IV (LV) 136.25% 0.00% 77.7836.02%0.00%77.185-2
Chris Conley (HOU) 153.17% 0.00% 77.1843.97%0.00%80.180 +4
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) 76.82%33.33%75.3857.07%17.26%73.191-6
KJ Hamler (DEN) 135.36%0.00%75.1864.54%0.68%72.792-6
Larry Fitzgerald 131.39% 0.00% 73.9872.68%0.00%79.581 +6
Jalen Reagor (PHI) 111.85%0.00%71.7883.36%0.49%76.786 +2
Henry Ruggs III (LV) 134.65%0.00%71.1894.10%0.35%69.995-6
Keke Coutee (HOU) 87.50% 0.00% 70.5907.74%0.00%71.193-3
Cam Sims (WAS) 152.08%0.00%70.2913.27%1.32%73.789 +2
Sammy Watkins (BAL) 103.64%0.00%69.9925.69%0.79%76.787 +5
Tyron Johnson (LAC) 1111.54%0.00%69.5937.23%0.71%62.998-5
Jakeem Grant Sr. (MIA) 141.82%0.00%69.3943.10%0.94%73.790 +4
Golden Tate 123.85% 0.00% 69.0954.18%0.00%70.094 +1
Preston Williams (MIA) 811.43% 0.00% 65.8969.82%0.00%62.499-3
Deebo Samuel (SF) 72.27%0.00%64.2972.55%2.16%66.096 +1
Michael Thomas (NO) 70.00%0.00%63.9983.65%0.00%76.088 +10
Miles Boykin (BAL) 1412.12% 0.00% 60.1999.74%0.00%55.4101-2
N'Keal Harry (NE) 133.45%0.00%57.41005.24%0.00%63.697 +3
Quintez Cephus (DET) 135.71% 0.00% 56.91015.31%0.00%56.0100 +1
Kenny Golladay (NYG) 56.25% 0.00% 55.81025.69%0.00%54.7102 0
Richie James Jr. (SF) 112.86% 0.00% 52.91033.14%0.00%53.5104-1
Marvin Hall (NE) 126.25%0.00%51.31044.81%0.70%48.6108-4
DaeSean Hamilton (DEN) 134.55% 0.00% 50.81054.85%0.00%51.6106-1
Collin Johnson (JAC) 126.45% 0.00% 50.21067.05%0.00%51.3107-1
Denzel Mims (NYJ) 90.00% 0.00% 49.21072.03%0.00%54.7103 +4
Adam Humphries (WAS) 75.71%0.00%46.31085.60%0.86%46.1110-2
Julian Edelman 60.00%0.00%45.71092.54%0.24%51.7105 +4
Andy Isabella (ARI) 125.71%0.00%44.31105.11%0.86%43.1115-5
Steven Sims Jr. (WAS) 122.70%0.00%43.81113.37%0.48%45.3112-1
Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL) 103.13%0.00%43.41123.50%1.32%44.2113-1
Cedrick Wilson (DAL) 157.14%0.00%43.11137.74%0.23%44.1114-1
Devin Duvernay (BAL) 150.00%0.00%43.11141.76%0.39%45.9111 +3
Isaiah Ford (MIA) 100.00% 0.00% 41.61152.03%0.00%47.0109 +6
Chad Beebe (MIN) 146.67% 0.00% 40.11165.32%0.00%37.7117-1
DeSean Jackson (LAR) 53.85%0.00%37.81173.32%0.00%37.0119-2
Van Jefferson (LAR) 153.23%0.00%37.41184.03%0.00%38.9116 +2
Dontrelle Inman 87.14% 0.00% 37.31195.33%0.00%34.3122-3
Isaiah Wright (WAS) 120.00%0.00%32.81202.24%0.29%37.6118 +2
Marcus Johnson (TEN) 90.00% 0.00% 32.51211.32%0.00%34.7121 0
Marquez Callaway (NO) 110.00% 0.00% 31.81221.99%0.00%35.0120 +2
Jeff Smith (NYJ) 100.00% 0.00% 25.21231.83%0.00%29.3123 0
John Hightower (PHI) 110.00%0.00%23.81241.47%0.00%26.4124 0
Chris Hogan (NO) 50.00% 0.00% 18.81252.82%0.00%23.2125 0
() 0.00%0.00%0.01261.81%3.02%5.7126 0