Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 16 | 9.71% | 0.00% | 377.4 | 1 | 8.44% | 0.18% | 364.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 16 | 6.49% | 0.00% | 309.1 | 2 | 6.20% | 1.76% | 306.5 | 2 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 16 | 8.39% | 0.00% | 302.5 | 3 | 7.82% | 4.51% | 298.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 7.52% | 0.00% | 266.7 | 4 | 6.29% | 0.53% | 257.1 | 6 | -2 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 15 | 3.95% | 0.00% | 263.4 | 5 | 3.92% | 1.03% | 264.0 | 4 | +1 |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 14 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 256.2 | 6 | 4.44% | 2.96% | 260.4 | 5 | +1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 16 | 4.38% | 0.00% | 247.7 | 7 | 4.51% | 1.13% | 249.1 | 7 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 16 | 11.11% | 0.00% | 247.6 | 8 | 8.12% | 0.00% | 226.6 | 12 | -4 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 16 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 242.8 | 9 | 5.01% | 0.00% | 247.1 | 8 | +1 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 16 | 5.66% | 0.00% | 240.1 | 10 | 5.84% | 0.00% | 241.9 | 9 | +1 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 16 | 2.76% | 0.00% | 228.6 | 11 | 3.22% | 0.00% | 232.6 | 10 | +1 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 15 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 224.4 | 12 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 216.8 | 15 | -3 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 13 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 222.5 | 13 | 8.01% | 0.00% | 209.4 | 18 | -5 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 13 | 5.67% | 0.00% | 220.5 | 14 | 6.45% | 0.00% | 227.1 | 11 | +3 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 219.5 | 15 | 5.64% | 0.00% | 217.5 | 13 | +2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 13 | 7.22% | 0.00% | 216.9 | 16 | 5.87% | 0.00% | 209.1 | 20 | -4 |
| DJ Moore (CHI) | 16 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 216.0 | 17 | 4.37% | 0.38% | 217.0 | 14 | +3 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 16 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 214.2 | 18 | 5.13% | 0.44% | 216.2 | 16 | +2 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 11 | 9.17% | 0.00% | 212.8 | 19 | 8.60% | 0.00% | 209.1 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 14 | 9.09% | 33.33% | 211.5 | 20 | 7.75% | 20.61% | 201.2 | 22 | -2 |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 11 | 2.83% | 9.09% | 206.6 | 21 | 3.45% | 9.02% | 210.5 | 17 | +4 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 16 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 206.4 | 22 | 3.58% | 1.41% | 208.1 | 21 | +1 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 14 | 7.69% | 9.09% | 202.8 | 23 | 6.15% | 7.57% | 193.4 | 25 | -2 |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI) | 13 | 8.99% | 0.00% | 199.4 | 24 | 7.03% | 5.17% | 189.3 | 28 | -4 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 14 | 5.31% | 0.00% | 198.3 | 25 | 5.40% | 0.00% | 198.9 | 23 | +2 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 11 | 7.07% | 0.00% | 195.8 | 26 | 6.54% | 0.00% | 192.6 | 26 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney (ATL) | 16 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 193.2 | 27 | 4.06% | 0.00% | 189.5 | 27 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 16 | 8.00% | 5.00% | 191.9 | 28 | 6.85% | 4.00% | 185.5 | 30 | -2 |
| Jakobi Meyers (JAC) | 14 | 3.10% | 0.00% | 190.7 | 29 | 3.84% | 0.27% | 196.4 | 24 | +5 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 16 | 3.33% | 12.50% | 188.9 | 30 | 3.36% | 8.97% | 187.4 | 29 | +1 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 16 | 6.12% | 15.00% | 187.2 | 31 | 6.00% | 11.33% | 182.1 | 32 | -1 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | 15 | 4.00% | 0.00% | 182.5 | 32 | 4.01% | 2.47% | 182.8 | 31 | +1 |
| Keenan Allen (LAC) | 14 | 5.74% | 0.00% | 180.9 | 33 | 5.32% | 0.00% | 177.9 | 34 | -1 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 16 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 179.2 | 34 | 5.71% | 0.00% | 171.0 | 38 | -4 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 14 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 176.9 | 35 | 4.27% | 0.00% | 174.6 | 35 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA) | 12 | 5.94% | 0.00% | 175.0 | 36 | 5.37% | 2.86% | 171.9 | 36 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) | 16 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 168.4 | 37 | 3.31% | 0.40% | 178.5 | 33 | +4 |
| Josh Downs (IND) | 13 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 164.1 | 38 | 4.84% | 0.00% | 165.5 | 39 | -1 |
| George Pickens (DAL) | 13 | 2.91% | 0.00% | 163.4 | 39 | 4.15% | 0.88% | 171.2 | 37 | +2 |
| Rashod Bateman (BAL) | 16 | 12.50% | 0.00% | 156.0 | 40 | 8.63% | 0.00% | 139.3 | 47 | -7 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. (WAS) | 15 | 3.66% | 2.38% | 153.6 | 41 | 4.46% | 4.59% | 163.1 | 40 | +1 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | 15 | 2.68% | 0.00% | 152.6 | 42 | 3.09% | 0.00% | 155.3 | 41 | +1 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 15 | 10.14% | 0.00% | 147.7 | 43 | 7.24% | 0.00% | 135.7 | 48 | -5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (BAL) | 16 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 147.0 | 44 | 6.14% | 0.00% | 146.5 | 44 | 0 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 14 | 8.79% | 0.00% | 143.1 | 45 | 6.58% | 0.00% | 131.0 | 52 | -7 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 16 | 3.41% | 0.00% | 141.3 | 46 | 3.39% | 0.00% | 141.2 | 46 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 16 | 2.97% | 0.00% | 141.1 | 47 | 4.06% | 0.40% | 147.8 | 42 | +5 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 15 | 2.41% | 0.00% | 140.6 | 48 | 3.49% | 4.52% | 147.1 | 43 | +5 |
| Tank Dell (HOU) | 14 | 3.70% | 0.00% | 140.0 | 49 | 4.03% | 1.32% | 142.3 | 45 | +4 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 16 | 8.86% | 0.00% | 138.2 | 50 | 7.42% | 0.00% | 131.4 | 51 | -1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. (TB) | 7 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 137.8 | 51 | 6.54% | 0.00% | 132.1 | 50 | +1 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 13 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 132.1 | 52 | 5.09% | 0.00% | 130.1 | 53 | -1 |
| Adam Thielen (PIT) | 9 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 130.1 | 53 | 5.89% | 0.00% | 122.0 | 55 | -2 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud III | 16 | 1.15% | 0.00% | 129.9 | 54 | 1.97% | 1.77% | 135.2 | 49 | +5 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (MIA) | 16 | 15.00% | 0.00% | 126.7 | 55 | 10.58% | 0.00% | 110.8 | 66 | -11 |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | 16 | 5.63% | 0.00% | 124.5 | 56 | 5.03% | 0.54% | 121.9 | 56 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 16 | 3.70% | 11.11% | 123.9 | 57 | 3.24% | 9.84% | 121.0 | 58 | -1 |
| Amari Cooper | 14 | 4.71% | 0.00% | 122.7 | 58 | 3.91% | 0.00% | 118.6 | 61 | -3 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 8 | 4.69% | 33.33% | 121.9 | 59 | 4.46% | 21.20% | 118.8 | 60 | -1 |
| Calvin Austin III (PIT) | 16 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 120.8 | 60 | 5.19% | 0.00% | 114.9 | 62 | -2 |
| Xavier Legette (CAR) | 15 | 4.71% | 0.00% | 119.1 | 61 | 4.80% | 0.71% | 119.9 | 59 | +2 |
| Andrei Iosivas (CIN) | 16 | 9.84% | 0.00% | 116.7 | 62 | 8.84% | 0.00% | 113.1 | 63 | -1 |
| Jalen McMillan (TB) | 12 | 13.79% | 0.00% | 116.4 | 63 | 9.70% | 1.59% | 102.5 | 71 | -8 |
| Tyler Lockett (LV) | 16 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 116.2 | 64 | 3.89% | 0.00% | 121.5 | 57 | +7 |
| Elijah Moore (DEN) | 16 | 0.96% | 0.00% | 114.3 | 65 | 2.20% | 0.00% | 122.0 | 54 | +11 |
| Demarcus Robinson (SF) | 16 | 10.94% | 0.00% | 113.3 | 66 | 9.25% | 0.00% | 106.8 | 68 | -2 |
| Darius Slayton (NYG) | 15 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 110.0 | 67 | 2.99% | 8.51% | 112.0 | 64 | +3 |
| Allen Lazard (NYJ) | 11 | 9.84% | 0.00% | 109.9 | 68 | 7.75% | 0.00% | 102.3 | 72 | -4 |
| Joshua Palmer (BUF) | 15 | 1.54% | 0.00% | 107.4 | 69 | 2.68% | 0.00% | 111.9 | 65 | +4 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) | 16 | 11.54% | 0.00% | 107.4 | 70 | 8.07% | 0.88% | 97.3 | 75 | -5 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | 12 | 7.02% | 0.00% | 105.5 | 71 | 6.86% | 0.39% | 105.0 | 70 | +1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus (CHI) | 16 | 4.69% | 0.00% | 105.3 | 72 | 4.80% | 0.00% | 105.7 | 69 | +3 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 14 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 105.3 | 73 | 4.36% | 1.76% | 107.6 | 67 | +6 |
| Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | 16 | 6.58% | 0.00% | 100.6 | 74 | 6.30% | 0.00% | 99.3 | 73 | +1 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | 14 | 4.41% | 0.00% | 97.2 | 75 | 4.00% | 0.00% | 95.5 | 76 | -1 |
| KaVontae Turpin (DAL) | 16 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 95.4 | 76 | 4.40% | 0.76% | 97.9 | 74 | +2 |
| Jalen Nailor (MIN) | 16 | 13.95% | 0.00% | 94.7 | 77 | 10.11% | 10.65% | 86.7 | 84 | -7 |
| Mack Hollins (NE) | 16 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 93.3 | 78 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 87.5 | 82 | -4 |
| Devaughn Vele (NO) | 12 | 5.45% | 0.00% | 91.5 | 79 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 89.7 | 79 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell (LAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 90.2 | 80 | 1.28% | 3.52% | 95.4 | 77 | +3 |
| Tim Patrick (JAC) | 15 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 88.9 | 81 | 7.05% | 0.00% | 89.5 | 80 | +1 |
| Parker Washington (JAC) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 87.5 | 82 | 5.25% | 0.00% | 85.6 | 85 | -3 |
| Noah Brown (WAS) | 11 | 1.75% | 0.00% | 86.3 | 83 | 2.39% | 0.00% | 88.5 | 81 | +2 |
| Diontae Johnson | 11 | 4.48% | 0.00% | 85.9 | 84 | 5.74% | 1.23% | 91.1 | 78 | +6 |
| Cedric Tillman (CLE) | 11 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 80.4 | 85 | 5.22% | 0.00% | 77.7 | 90 | -5 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | 6 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 79.8 | 86 | 5.66% | 2.59% | 77.0 | 91 | -5 |
| Jalen Coker (CAR) | 10 | 4.35% | 0.00% | 78.6 | 87 | 5.16% | 0.00% | 80.8 | 87 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 78.3 | 88 | 2.44% | 1.76% | 86.9 | 83 | +5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling (PIT) | 13 | 8.89% | 0.00% | 78.2 | 89 | 6.40% | 0.00% | 71.5 | 94 | -5 |
| Sterling Shepard (TB) | 13 | 1.96% | 0.00% | 78.2 | 90 | 3.52% | 2.67% | 84.3 | 86 | +4 |
| David Moore (CAR) | 16 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 77.2 | 91 | 5.73% | 26.79% | 80.4 | 88 | +3 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 8 | 2.27% | 0.00% | 76.7 | 92 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 79.8 | 89 | +3 |
| Ricky Pearsall (SF) | 10 | 6.52% | 0.00% | 74.6 | 93 | 5.64% | 1.72% | 72.5 | 93 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk (HOU) | 8 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 70.9 | 94 | 3.46% | 0.00% | 74.7 | 92 | +2 |
| Greg Dortch (ARI) | 16 | 6.00% | 0.00% | 68.9 | 95 | 5.66% | 3.54% | 69.0 | 95 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks (BUF) | 9 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 65.6 | 96 | 6.23% | 2.78% | 68.3 | 97 | -1 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 4 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 64.9 | 97 | 4.79% | 1.19% | 61.6 | 103 | -6 |
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | 15 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 63.9 | 98 | 4.17% | 0.60% | 65.2 | 98 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 62.4 | 99 | 2.25% | 0.00% | 68.9 | 96 | +3 |
| Dyami Brown (JAC) | 15 | 2.50% | 0.00% | 62.0 | 100 | 3.64% | 0.99% | 64.9 | 99 | +1 |
| Kendrick Bourne (SF) | 11 | 2.63% | 0.00% | 61.9 | 101 | 2.95% | 0.00% | 62.6 | 101 | 0 |
| Justin Watson (HOU) | 16 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 61.4 | 102 | 5.27% | 0.00% | 59.5 | 105 | -3 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey (DEN) | 16 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 59.7 | 103 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 64.1 | 100 | +3 |
| Van Jefferson (TEN) | 16 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 58.8 | 104 | 6.36% | 0.00% | 62.1 | 102 | +2 |
| Gabe Davis (BUF) | 10 | 6.98% | 0.00% | 53.9 | 105 | 7.47% | 0.00% | 55.2 | 108 | -3 |
| Adonai Mitchell (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 53.8 | 106 | 2.09% | 3.05% | 61.4 | 104 | +2 |
| Mike Williams | 17 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 53.3 | 107 | 3.44% | 0.00% | 54.3 | 109 | -2 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) | 13 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 51.7 | 108 | 7.51% | 0.00% | 51.4 | 111 | -3 |
| Curtis Samuel (BUF) | 13 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 51.5 | 109 | 3.49% | 2.72% | 55.9 | 106 | +3 |
| John Metchie III (NYJ) | 12 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 51.0 | 110 | 4.82% | 0.00% | 55.7 | 107 | +3 |
| Nelson Agholor | 14 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 49.1 | 111 | 5.31% | 0.00% | 46.3 | 113 | -2 |
| Tyler Johnson (NYJ) | 14 | 2.44% | 0.00% | 47.6 | 112 | 4.87% | 0.00% | 53.6 | 110 | +2 |
| DJ Turner (LV) | 13 | 3.45% | 20.00% | 47.1 | 113 | 3.39% | 13.38% | 45.0 | 114 | -1 |
| Malik Washington (MIA) | 13 | 0.00% | 20.00% | 46.0 | 114 | 2.17% | 11.49% | 48.3 | 112 | +2 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. (MIA) | 14 | 3.70% | 0.00% | 44.7 | 115 | 3.03% | 2.47% | 43.8 | 115 | 0 |
| Jordan Whittington (LAR) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 39.7 | 116 | 2.12% | 0.20% | 43.3 | 116 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks (ARI) | 13 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 35.7 | 117 | 4.32% | 0.00% | 37.5 | 118 | -1 |
| Robert Woods | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 34.4 | 118 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 38.3 | 117 | +1 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk (NO) | 15 | 6.06% | 0.00% | 32.7 | 119 | 5.80% | 5.86% | 32.5 | 119 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo (DAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 27.8 | 120 | 1.30% | 0.00% | 31.1 | 120 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson (PHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.5 | 121 | 1.04% | 0.00% | 27.6 | 121 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton (NO) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 23.9 | 122 | 1.19% | 0.00% | 25.8 | 122 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis (NO) | 7 | 3.57% | 0.00% | 22.4 | 123 | 4.42% | 0.00% | 23.8 | 124 | -1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 22.2 | 124 | 2.11% | 0.00% | 25.5 | 123 | +1 |
