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Touchdown Regression Report

2021 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 168.38%0.00%412.917.80%0.99%406.51 0
Davante Adams (LV) 156.51% 0.00% 332.826.63%0.00%334.02 0
Deebo Samuel (SF) 154.92%13.56%310.034.29%9.94%292.65-2
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 165.95%0.00%308.345.39%2.35%303.43 +1
Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) 1610.16%0.00%300.057.39%2.47%279.86-1
Tyreek Hill (MIA) 165.77%0.00%295.365.61%1.68%294.74 +2
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 166.06% 0.00% 262.476.37%0.00%265.57 0
Diontae Johnson (PIT) 154.73%0.00%262.385.00%0.40%265.18 0
Keenan Allen (LAC) 153.82% 0.00% 246.694.81%0.00%255.99 0
Chris Godwin (TB) 143.91%25.00%242.4105.06%19.96%250.110 0
Hunter Renfrow (LV) 167.03%0.00%242.2117.03%1.28%242.411 0
Mike Evans (TB) 1512.28%0.00%235.6129.50%1.59%216.720-8
DK Metcalf (SEA) 169.30%0.00%233.5137.07%1.56%216.321-8
Jaylen Waddle (MIA) 154.23%50.00%232.1144.27%38.33%231.112 +2
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 155.08%0.00%226.3154.61%4.41%225.314 +1
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 154.48%0.00%226.2163.96%0.67%222.116 0
Marquise Brown (ARI) 154.14%0.00%220.6174.36%0.66%222.615 +2
DJ Moore (CAR) 162.45%0.00%220.5183.36%0.74%229.713 +5
Mike Williams (LAC) 156.98% 0.00% 219.7196.93%0.00%219.318 +1
Tee Higgins (CIN) 145.45% 0.00% 219.1205.16%0.00%217.119 +1
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) 164.65%0.00%218.2215.06%2.31%222.117 +4
Tyler Lockett (SEA) 157.48%0.00%214.4225.47%0.79%201.623-1
Christian Kirk (JAC) 164.85%0.00%201.3234.80%0.00%201.024-1
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 154.20%14.29%201.2244.65%8.55%202.022 +2
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 163.82%0.00%200.2253.77%0.00%199.925 0
Adam Thielen (MIN) 1310.53%0.00%199.8268.44%1.56%188.028-2
Darnell Mooney (CHI) 162.86%16.67%195.1273.31%11.53%197.126 +1
Amari Cooper (CLE) 148.25% 0.00% 189.6287.12%0.00%183.029-1
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 165.32%0.00%183.8294.58%0.00%179.630-1
DeVonta Smith (PHI) 165.00% 0.00% 178.5304.64%0.00%176.331-1
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 151.59%0.00%177.3313.13%1.56%189.027 +4
Kendrick Bourne (NE) 167.14%0.00%174.3325.67%2.10%169.632 0
A.J. Brown (PHI) 124.76%0.00%164.1334.75%1.67%164.234-1
Van Jefferson (LAR) 166.74%0.00%163.1346.41%1.77%161.637-3
Marvin Jones Jr. (JAC) 163.33% 0.00% 158.4354.80%0.00%169.033 +2
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 165.88%0.00%153.6365.56%0.29%152.040-4
Cole Beasley 150.89% 0.00% 152.2372.56%0.00%163.435 +2
Marquez Callaway (NO) 167.14% 0.00% 151.8385.71%0.00%144.641-3
A.J. Green (ARI) 153.26% 0.00% 150.5395.10%0.00%160.638 +1
K.J. Osborn (MIN) 168.54%0.00%149.4406.74%0.66%140.642-2
Chase Claypool (PIT) 141.90%0.00%148.6413.49%4.46%162.336 +5
Courtland Sutton (DEN) 162.11% 0.00% 147.3423.46%0.00%155.039 +3
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 1012.50% 0.00% 147.24310.56%0.00%139.843 0
Tim Patrick (DEN) 156.67% 0.00% 140.9446.27%0.00%139.144 0
Elijah Moore (NYJ) 116.49%20.00%138.2455.19%12.74%130.049-4
Robert Woods (TEN) 95.80%12.50%137.2466.48%8.40%138.145 +1
Russell Gage (TB) 124.26% 0.00% 135.4474.56%0.00%137.146 +1
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) 145.56%0.00%131.7485.62%1.58%132.247 +1
Odell Beckham Jr. 136.10%0.00%125.3495.77%0.97%123.851-2
Mecole Hardman (KC) 162.78%0.00%121.6504.39%4.57%130.548 +2
Braxton Berrios (NYJ) 163.08%28.57%121.1514.01%23.21%122.552-1
Antonio Brown 76.45%0.00%121.1524.92%1.59%115.558-6
Robbie Anderson (CAR) 164.55%0.00%120.5534.27%4.68%119.554-1
Gabriel Davis (BUF) 149.52% 0.00% 119.0549.23%0.00%117.955-1
Cedrick Wilson Jr. (MIA) 137.27%0.00%118.9556.44%0.97%116.357-2
Allen Lazard (GB) 1313.33%0.00%118.05610.55%1.06%108.261-5
Byron Pringle (CHI) 159.62% 0.00% 116.2577.38%0.00%109.260-3
Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC) 150.00%0.00%115.8582.08%1.38%129.250 +8
Jarvis Landry (NO) 112.33%33.33%113.5593.28%27.45%116.356 +3
Kalif Raymond (DET) 155.63%0.00%111.0604.80%0.96%107.762-2
Rondale Moore (ARI) 141.52%0.00%109.1613.32%3.41%119.953 +8
Jamison Crowder (BUF) 112.78% 0.00% 107.1624.02%0.00%112.559 +3
Deonte Harty (NO) 125.08%0.00%106.8634.06%1.99%103.864-1
Corey Davis (NYJ) 96.78% 0.00% 105.2645.04%0.00%99.072-8
Donovan Peoples-Jones (CLE) 135.17% 0.00% 102.9654.60%0.00%100.968-3
DeVante Parker (NE) 92.74% 0.00% 100.3663.26%0.00%102.666 0
Nelson Agholor (NE) 144.69%0.00%100.1674.41%0.22%99.171-4
Rashod Bateman (BAL) 111.49% 0.00% 99.3682.58%0.00%103.765 +3
Bryan Edwards (ATL) 155.08%0.00%98.8695.23%0.66%99.469 0
Zay Jones (JAC) 141.43%0.00%98.2702.27%0.94%101.867 +3
Quez Watkins (PHI) 160.00%0.00%96.6712.72%1.56%105.763 +8
Randall Cobb (GB) 1112.82%0.00%93.67212.94%1.95%94.074-2
Zach Pascal (PHI) 154.35%0.00%92.8735.84%2.28%99.370 +3
Michael Gallup (DAL) 93.23% 0.00% 91.5744.02%0.00%94.573 +1
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) 147.02% 0.00% 89.8757.01%0.00%89.877-2
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC) 105.45% 0.00% 87.0765.36%0.00%86.778-2
Jalen Guyton (LAC) 156.25%0.00%86.0775.98%0.94%85.680-3
DeAndre Carter (LAC) 166.82%0.00%85.4785.59%1.34%83.084-6
Henry Ruggs III 75.56%0.00%84.5793.62%3.34%80.986-7
Kenny Golladay (NYG) 130.00% 0.00% 83.9802.14%0.00%93.775 +5
Kadarius Toney (NYG) 90.00%0.00%82.4811.92%4.93%89.976 +5
Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL) 145.66%0.00%82.1825.79%0.63%82.685-3
Allen Robinson II (LAR) 111.52% 0.00% 80.8832.61%0.00%85.182 +1
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 90.00%0.00%80.0841.80%0.00%85.581 +3
Josh Reynolds (DET) 104.08% 0.00% 78.5854.11%0.00%78.689-4
Joshua Palmer (LAC) 148.16%0.00%78.4867.63%0.63%76.990-4
Adam Humphries 160.00% 0.00% 78.0872.11%0.00%85.979 +8
Sterling Shepard (NYG) 71.89%0.00%77.7883.87%0.00%84.083 +5
Freddie Swain (SEA) 1610.00%0.00%77.0897.13%0.53%70.399-10
Devin Duvernay (BAL) 154.26%0.00%77.0905.11%0.53%79.688 +2
Jamal Agnew (JAC) 122.50%14.29%76.0913.32%7.69%75.293-2
DeSean Jackson 145.88%0.00%75.8923.71%0.00%71.497-5
Nico Collins (HOU) 131.64% 0.00% 73.9933.40%0.00%80.387 +6
Jalen Reagor (PHI) 163.70%0.00%73.2944.00%1.05%74.694 0
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 53.85% 0.00% 71.1955.41%0.00%76.092 +3
Laquon Treadwell (JAC) 111.96% 0.00% 71.0963.59%0.00%76.091 +5
Sammy Watkins (GB) 102.04% 0.00% 70.4972.62%0.00%72.196 +1
Tre'Quan Smith (NO) 96.00% 0.00% 69.1986.47%0.00%70.598 0
T.Y. Hilton 98.11% 0.00% 68.2996.52%0.00%64.7105-6
James Washington (DAL) 154.55%0.00%65.81005.37%1.39%68.2102-2
Tyler Johnson (TB) 150.00% 0.00% 64.81012.53%0.00%73.295 +6
Chris Conley (HOU) 145.41%0.00%64.61024.10%1.59%61.8106-4
Keelan Cole Sr. (LV) 131.96% 0.00% 64.51032.97%0.00%67.6103 0
Demarcus Robinson (LV) 148.57% 0.00% 64.51046.69%0.00%60.5107-3
Julio Jones 92.08% 0.00% 63.61053.88%0.00%68.8101 +4
Chester Rogers 152.33%0.00%62.61063.33%0.77%65.2104 +2
Mack Hollins (LV) 1514.29% 0.00% 60.310712.27%0.00%56.9111-4
Ray-Ray McCloud (SF) 150.00%0.00%58.51082.54%4.41%69.1100 +8
Darius Slayton (NYG) 123.45%0.00%57.71092.92%0.00%55.9112-3
Rashard Higgins (CAR) 122.13% 0.00% 57.51103.15%0.00%60.4108 +2
Damiere Byrd (ATL) 102.63% 0.00% 55.21113.67%0.00%57.6109 +2
Jauan Jennings (SF) 1212.82% 0.00% 54.81129.83%0.00%47.8118-6
Antoine Wesley (ARI) 79.38% 0.00% 54.11138.38%0.00%52.2115-2
Marquise Goodwin (SEA) 132.50%0.00%53.91143.35%13.33%57.5110 +4
Tavon Austin 122.63%0.00%51.41152.83%2.63%52.3114 +1
Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) 143.85%11.11%49.61165.23%9.46%50.9117-1
Tajae Sharpe (CHI) 130.00% 0.00% 48.01172.66%0.00%53.9113 +4
Albert Wilson (MIA) 100.00%0.00%48.01181.45%1.06%51.6116 +2
Danny Amendola 78.11% 0.00% 36.51195.79%0.00%31.4122-3
JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) 50.00%33.33%34.81200.82%25.56%34.8121-1
Terrace Marshall Jr. (CAR) 120.00% 0.00% 32.81212.53%0.00%37.4119 +2
KhaDarel Hodge (ATL) 120.00% 0.00% 30.71222.88%0.00%35.4120 +2