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Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Davante Adams (GB) 1412.00% 0.00% 358.419.92%0.00%339.61 0
Tyreek Hill (KC) 1511.11%15.38%328.928.68%10.16%305.13-1
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 164.76%0.00%328.634.68%0.48%327.82 +1
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 163.75%0.00%287.844.20%0.00%292.14 0
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 156.29%0.00%281.556.37%2.55%282.95 0
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 165.60%0.00%274.265.16%0.48%270.96 0
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) 167.75% 0.00% 271.376.72%0.00%263.38-1
Tyler Lockett (SEA) 167.58% 0.00% 265.486.64%0.00%258.09-1
Allen Robinson II (CHI) 163.97%0.00%262.994.65%2.14%269.17 +2
Adam Thielen (MIN) 1512.96%0.00%254.01010.31%4.52%237.613-3
Mike Evans (TB) 1611.93% 0.00% 248.6119.95%0.00%235.714-3
A.J. Brown (TEN) 1410.38% 0.00% 247.5127.65%0.00%230.217-5
Keenan Allen (LAC) 145.41%0.00%245.1135.02%0.00%241.711 +2
Robert Woods (LAR) 164.62%8.33%245.1144.31%6.79%240.512 +2
Amari Cooper (DAL) 163.85%0.00%236.8154.66%0.68%243.410 +5
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) 167.03% 0.00% 234.1166.11%0.00%227.119-3
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 155.04% 0.00% 232.0174.91%0.00%231.016 +1
Marvin Jones Jr. (JAC) 167.83% 0.00% 227.8186.31%0.00%217.422-4
Robby Anderson (CAR) 162.17%0.00%224.2193.13%0.00%232.115 +4
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 152.99%0.00%223.8203.73%3.23%230.118 +2
Diontae Johnson (PIT) 154.86%0.00%221.8214.35%1.89%217.720 +1
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 164.50%10.00%217.7224.83%6.15%217.521 +1
Chase Claypool (PIT) 168.26%20.00%214.9237.16%17.40%206.227-4
Curtis Samuel (WAS) 153.09%4.88%212.1243.92%4.99%217.223 +1
D.J. Moore (CAR) 153.39%0.00%211.5253.97%0.40%215.725 0
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 152.40%0.00%208.7263.49%0.65%217.024 +2
Cole Beasley (BUF) 153.74% 0.00% 207.5274.27%0.00%210.926 +1
Tee Higgins (CIN) 165.56%0.00%194.6285.01%0.85%191.330-2
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 153.64%0.00%192.6294.61%1.29%199.428 +1
Corey Davis (NYJ) 145.43% 0.00% 191.4304.96%0.00%188.832-2
Chris Godwin (TB) 128.33% 0.00% 191.0317.04%0.00%184.534-3
Will Fuller V (MIA) 1110.67%0.00%188.9327.47%0.00%174.537-5
Jarvis Landry (CLE) 152.97%25.00%188.0334.68%19.92%197.129 +4
Nelson Agholor (NE) 169.76% 0.00% 185.6347.99%0.00%176.935-1
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 125.15%33.33%184.5356.11%17.75%184.533 +2
Marquise Brown (BAL) 168.00%0.00%183.0366.55%0.67%174.439-3
Russell Gage (ATL) 163.64%0.00%181.1374.75%5.15%189.031 +6
Michael Gallup (DAL) 164.72% 0.00% 173.3385.13%0.00%175.936 +2
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) 126.67%0.00%172.0395.33%0.70%164.841-2
DeVante Parker (MIA) 143.88% 0.00% 166.3405.20%0.00%174.438 +2
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) 146.10%0.00%164.8416.23%0.00%165.440 +1
T.Y. Hilton (IND) 155.38% 0.00% 164.2424.88%0.00%161.443-1
Sterling Shepard (NYG) 123.33%16.67%162.5433.93%8.66%162.942 +1
Tim Patrick (DEN) 157.59% 0.00% 161.2446.84%0.00%157.645-1
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 162.65% 0.00% 157.6452.87%0.00%159.144 +1
Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC) 146.33%0.00%157.1465.32%0.88%153.349-3
Keelan Cole Sr. (NYJ) 165.68%0.00%155.4475.29%1.32%153.448-1
Mike Williams (LAC) 155.88%0.00%153.7485.83%0.00%153.447 +1
D.J. Chark Jr. (JAC) 135.32% 0.00% 153.6494.79%0.00%150.651-2
Darnell Mooney (CHI) 164.08%0.00%152.1504.39%1.62%154.346 +4
Christian Kirk (ARI) 147.59%0.00%146.4517.35%0.33%145.354-3
Julio Jones (TEN) 94.41% 0.00% 146.1524.56%0.00%146.752 0
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 140.00%0.00%142.5531.84%0.35%151.550 +3
Darius Slayton (NYG) 163.09%0.00%141.0543.85%2.50%145.753 +1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) 159.52%0.00%137.3556.54%2.75%126.760-5
Gabriel Davis (BUF) 1611.29%0.00%136.9569.35%10.94%130.358-2
Zach Pascal (IND) 167.04% 0.00% 136.9577.11%0.00%137.255 +2
Greg Ward (PHI) 167.59%0.00%133.1586.23%0.35%126.761-3
Hunter Renfrow (LV) 162.60% 0.00% 131.6593.64%0.00%136.457 +2
Kendrick Bourne (NE) 152.70% 0.00% 129.7604.30%0.00%136.856 +4
Mecole Hardman (KC) 166.45%0.00%128.1615.35%2.04%124.562-1
Josh Reynolds (TEN) 162.47%0.00%124.3623.49%5.00%129.659 +3
Rashard Higgins (CLE) 137.69% 0.00% 120.9636.68%0.00%117.765-2
David Moore (CAR) 1612.77%0.00%118.86410.99%1.66%114.668-4
Antonio Brown (TB) 86.45%0.00%117.1655.58%0.33%113.969-4
Travis Fulgham (PHI) 135.97% 0.00% 115.9665.73%0.00%114.967-1
Damiere Byrd (CHI) 151.30%0.00%114.9672.02%0.00%118.264 +3
A.J. Green (ARI) 161.92% 0.00% 111.3683.72%0.00%122.563 +5
Anthony Miller (HOU) 162.63%0.00%108.7694.19%0.33%115.866 +3
Demarcus Robinson (KC) 155.08% 0.00% 107.6704.81%0.00%106.671-1
Danny Amendola 140.00%0.00%106.4711.58%0.00%112.970 +1
Tre'Quan Smith (NO) 138.00%0.00%103.1726.37%2.14%98.377-5
Scotty Miller (TB) 155.66%0.00%102.5734.34%2.05%98.776-3
Larry Fitzgerald 131.39% 0.00% 100.9742.68%0.00%106.572 +2
Randall Cobb (GB) 106.25% 0.00% 100.1756.78%0.00%101.674 +1
Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) 1514.71%0.00%99.67610.95%1.78%93.086-10
James Washington (PIT) 168.93% 0.00% 99.2776.98%0.00%92.787-10
Breshad Perriman (DET) 125.00%0.00%99.1784.34%2.14%96.880-2
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) 131.64%0.00%98.9793.37%2.37%105.773 +6
Allen Lazard (GB) 106.52%0.00%97.8806.21%1.07%97.179 +1
Braxton Berrios (NYJ) 165.45%0.00%97.3815.01%0.60%95.982-1
Chris Conley (HOU) 153.17% 0.00% 97.1823.97%0.00%100.175 +7
Jalen Guyton (LAC) 165.45%0.00%97.1834.89%0.40%95.383 0
John Brown (LV) 95.77% 0.00% 96.8846.17%0.00%98.078 +6
Willie Snead IV (LV) 136.25% 0.00% 94.2856.02%0.00%93.685 0
KJ Hamler (DEN) 135.36%0.00%90.1864.54%0.68%87.791-5
Sammy Watkins (BAL) 103.64%0.00%88.4875.69%0.79%95.284 +3
Jakeem Grant Sr. (MIA) 141.82%0.00%87.3883.10%0.94%91.789-1
Jalen Reagor (PHI) 111.85%0.00%87.2893.36%0.49%92.288 +1
Keke Coutee (HOU) 87.50% 0.00% 87.0907.74%0.00%87.692-2
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) 76.82%33.33%86.8917.07%17.26%84.694-3
Golden Tate 123.85% 0.00% 86.5924.18%0.00%87.593-1
Cam Sims (WAS) 152.08%0.00%86.2933.27%1.32%89.790 +3
Henry Ruggs III (LV) 134.65%0.00%84.1944.10%0.35%82.995-1
Michael Thomas (NO) 70.00%0.00%83.9953.65%0.00%96.081 +14
Deebo Samuel (SF) 72.27%0.00%80.7962.55%2.16%82.596 0
Tyron Johnson (LAC) 1111.54%0.00%79.5977.23%0.71%72.998-1
Preston Williams (MIA) 811.43% 0.00% 74.8989.82%0.00%71.499-1
N'Keal Harry (NE) 133.45%0.00%73.9995.24%0.00%80.197 +2
Miles Boykin (BAL) 1412.12% 0.00% 69.61009.74%0.00%64.9103-3
Quintez Cephus (DET) 135.71% 0.00% 66.91015.31%0.00%66.0101 0
Kenny Golladay (NYG) 56.25% 0.00% 65.81025.69%0.00%64.7104-2
Richie James Jr. (SF) 112.86% 0.00% 64.41033.14%0.00%65.0102 +1
DaeSean Hamilton (DEN) 134.55% 0.00% 62.31044.85%0.00%63.1105-1
Denzel Mims (NYJ) 90.00% 0.00% 60.71052.03%0.00%66.2100 +5
Marvin Hall (NE) 126.25%0.00%60.31064.81%0.70%57.6111-5
Collin Johnson (JAC) 126.45% 0.00% 59.21077.05%0.00%60.3108-1
Adam Humphries (WAS) 75.71%0.00%57.81085.60%0.86%57.6110-2
Steven Sims Jr. (WAS) 122.70%0.00%57.31093.37%0.48%58.8109 0
Julian Edelman 60.00%0.00%56.21102.54%0.24%62.2106 +4
Isaiah Ford (MIA) 100.00% 0.00% 55.61112.03%0.00%61.0107 +4
Andy Isabella (ARI) 125.71%0.00%54.81125.11%0.86%53.6114-2
Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL) 103.13%0.00%53.41133.50%1.32%54.2113 0
Devin Duvernay (BAL) 150.00%0.00%53.11141.76%0.39%55.9112 +2
Cedrick Wilson (DAL) 157.14%0.00%51.61157.74%0.23%52.6115 0
Chad Beebe (MIN) 146.67% 0.00% 50.11165.32%0.00%47.7118-2
Van Jefferson (LAR) 153.23%0.00%46.91174.03%0.00%48.4117 0
Isaiah Wright (WAS) 120.00%0.00%46.31182.24%0.29%51.1116 +2
Dontrelle Inman 87.14% 0.00% 46.31195.33%0.00%43.3121-2
DeSean Jackson (LAR) 53.85%0.00%44.81203.32%0.00%44.0120 0
Marquez Callaway (NO) 110.00% 0.00% 42.31211.99%0.00%45.5119 +2
Marcus Johnson (TEN) 90.00% 0.00% 39.51221.32%0.00%41.7122 0
Jeff Smith (NYJ) 100.00% 0.00% 33.71231.83%0.00%37.8123 0
John Hightower (PHI) 110.00%0.00%28.81241.47%0.00%31.4124 0
Chris Hogan (NO) 50.00% 0.00% 25.81252.82%0.00%30.2125 0
() 0.00%0.00%0.01261.81%3.02%5.7126 0