Touchdown Regression Report
2023 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 16 | 6.63% | 14.29% | 367.7 | 1 | 6.52% | 11.04% | 363.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 15 | 7.60% | 0.00% | 355.2 | 2 | 6.72% | 1.39% | 346.7 | 2 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 15 | 6.02% | 0.00% | 303.5 | 3 | 5.45% | 2.84% | 298.5 | 3 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 16 | 4.43% | 0.00% | 289.7 | 4 | 4.37% | 0.00% | 289.1 | 4 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 16 | 3.75% | 0.00% | 284.4 | 5 | 3.96% | 2.61% | 288.3 | 5 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen (CHI) | 13 | 4.67% | 0.00% | 278.9 | 6 | 4.36% | 6.01% | 276.9 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 16 | 9.56% | 0.00% | 277.3 | 7 | 7.24% | 0.00% | 258.4 | 8 | -1 |
| DJ Moore (CHI) | 16 | 5.88% | 25.00% | 276.1 | 8 | 5.05% | 15.25% | 266.9 | 7 | +1 |
| Stefon Diggs (HOU) | 16 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 258.1 | 9 | 4.31% | 11.54% | 252.2 | 11 | -2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 15 | 4.83% | 0.00% | 256.8 | 10 | 4.89% | 0.00% | 257.3 | 9 | +1 |
| Davante Adams (LV) | 16 | 4.57% | 0.00% | 249.8 | 11 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 255.6 | 10 | +1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 243.7 | 12 | 5.22% | 0.00% | 234.6 | 14 | -2 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | 15 | 2.56% | 0.00% | 242.8 | 13 | 3.34% | 0.00% | 250.1 | 12 | +1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF) | 14 | 7.87% | 13.51% | 238.5 | 14 | 6.47% | 10.15% | 223.6 | 16 | -2 |
| Adam Thielen (CAR) | 16 | 2.92% | 0.00% | 227.8 | 15 | 3.76% | 7.01% | 235.1 | 13 | +2 |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI) | 16 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 227.6 | 16 | 4.90% | 0.00% | 218.5 | 20 | -4 |
| Amari Cooper (CLE) | 15 | 3.91% | 0.00% | 227.0 | 17 | 3.79% | 0.00% | 226.1 | 15 | +2 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 14 | 7.34% | 0.00% | 225.9 | 18 | 6.36% | 2.38% | 219.6 | 18 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf (SEA) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 223.4 | 19 | 6.48% | 0.00% | 222.0 | 17 | +2 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 15 | 3.62% | 0.00% | 216.7 | 20 | 3.82% | 0.00% | 218.3 | 21 | -1 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 16 | 6.86% | 0.00% | 212.5 | 21 | 6.96% | 0.49% | 213.1 | 22 | -1 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 16 | 4.72% | 0.00% | 208.5 | 22 | 3.88% | 0.36% | 203.2 | 27 | -5 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 16 | 1.79% | 0.00% | 207.8 | 23 | 2.90% | 0.32% | 219.1 | 19 | +4 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 207.3 | 24 | 6.15% | 2.02% | 210.6 | 23 | +1 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 16 | 4.63% | 12.50% | 206.4 | 25 | 4.80% | 9.12% | 205.9 | 25 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (TEN) | 16 | 5.11% | 0.00% | 206.0 | 26 | 4.77% | 9.44% | 204.4 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 16 | 9.26% | 0.00% | 205.6 | 27 | 7.37% | 7.33% | 193.8 | 29 | -2 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 15 | 8.51% | 18.18% | 202.0 | 28 | 7.32% | 11.24% | 190.7 | 31 | -3 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 14 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 198.6 | 29 | 4.24% | 0.47% | 201.1 | 28 | +1 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 16 | 1.53% | 25.00% | 197.7 | 30 | 3.27% | 14.51% | 208.9 | 24 | +6 |
| Jakobi Meyers (LV) | 15 | 7.55% | 50.00% | 197.0 | 31 | 6.55% | 34.89% | 187.0 | 32 | -1 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 16 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 191.6 | 32 | 3.14% | 0.00% | 192.5 | 30 | +2 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 15 | 11.11% | 0.00% | 189.0 | 33 | 8.57% | 0.00% | 175.3 | 35 | -2 |
| Tyler Lockett (SEA) | 16 | 4.10% | 0.00% | 185.3 | 34 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 186.7 | 33 | +1 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 16 | 8.33% | 0.00% | 174.4 | 35 | 7.22% | 0.00% | 168.0 | 37 | -2 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 15 | 1.82% | 0.00% | 166.3 | 36 | 3.40% | 0.00% | 176.7 | 34 | +2 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 9 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 166.2 | 37 | 4.91% | 11.54% | 166.4 | 38 | -1 |
| Tank Dell (HOU) | 11 | 9.33% | 0.00% | 165.0 | 38 | 6.64% | 2.13% | 154.3 | 41 | -3 |
| Cooper Kupp (LAR) | 12 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 164.4 | 39 | 5.98% | 7.01% | 168.9 | 36 | +3 |
| Gabe Davis (JAC) | 16 | 8.64% | 0.00% | 161.4 | 40 | 6.95% | 0.00% | 153.2 | 42 | -2 |
| Brandin Cooks (DAL) | 15 | 9.88% | 0.00% | 157.0 | 41 | 8.10% | 4.50% | 149.7 | 44 | -3 |
| Curtis Samuel (BUF) | 15 | 4.40% | 14.29% | 152.2 | 42 | 5.11% | 14.27% | 156.1 | 39 | +3 |
| Christian Kirk (JAC) | 12 | 3.53% | 0.00% | 150.3 | 43 | 3.35% | 0.00% | 149.4 | 45 | -2 |
| Josh Downs (IND) | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 149.3 | 44 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 155.4 | 40 | +4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 16 | 4.30% | 0.00% | 145.4 | 45 | 4.11% | 0.00% | 144.3 | 46 | -1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 144.4 | 46 | 3.02% | 2.01% | 150.4 | 43 | +3 |
| Rashid Shaheed (NO) | 15 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 140.1 | 47 | 5.18% | 1.03% | 133.8 | 50 | -3 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 12 | 6.58% | 0.00% | 137.6 | 48 | 5.83% | 0.00% | 134.2 | 48 | 0 |
| Hollywood Brown (KC) | 14 | 3.96% | 0.00% | 134.7 | 49 | 3.85% | 0.40% | 134.1 | 49 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson (CAR) | 12 | 5.75% | 0.00% | 133.8 | 50 | 5.14% | 0.00% | 130.6 | 52 | -2 |
| Darius Slayton (NYG) | 16 | 5.06% | 0.00% | 133.8 | 51 | 3.49% | 0.00% | 126.4 | 53 | -2 |
| Elijah Moore (CLE) | 16 | 1.92% | 0.00% | 132.1 | 52 | 3.16% | 1.07% | 140.4 | 47 | +5 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 15 | 2.30% | 0.00% | 124.9 | 53 | 3.50% | 0.00% | 131.1 | 51 | +2 |
| Jahan Dotson (WAS) | 16 | 4.82% | 0.00% | 121.1 | 54 | 5.30% | 0.00% | 123.5 | 54 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) | 14 | 1.28% | 11.11% | 119.7 | 55 | 1.94% | 7.01% | 120.5 | 55 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds (DEN) | 15 | 7.81% | 0.00% | 119.4 | 56 | 7.16% | 0.00% | 116.9 | 57 | -1 |
| K.J. Osborn (NE) | 15 | 4.00% | 0.00% | 117.1 | 57 | 4.73% | 0.00% | 120.4 | 56 | +1 |
| DJ Chark Jr. (LAC) | 14 | 7.58% | 0.00% | 110.9 | 58 | 5.86% | 0.00% | 104.1 | 62 | -4 |
| Tutu Atwell (LAR) | 15 | 4.48% | 0.00% | 108.1 | 59 | 4.46% | 2.03% | 108.6 | 60 | -1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. (MIA) | 14 | 4.69% | 0.00% | 107.5 | 60 | 5.39% | 0.00% | 110.2 | 59 | +1 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 103.9 | 61 | 1.64% | 0.37% | 111.7 | 58 | +3 |
| Noah Brown (HOU) | 10 | 3.64% | 0.00% | 101.6 | 62 | 4.61% | 7.01% | 105.2 | 61 | +1 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 9 | 9.43% | 0.00% | 101.3 | 63 | 8.44% | 1.83% | 98.6 | 66 | -3 |
| Kendrick Bourne (NE) | 8 | 7.27% | 0.00% | 100.0 | 64 | 5.94% | 0.49% | 95.6 | 70 | -6 |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | 12 | 5.17% | 0.00% | 99.0 | 65 | 5.07% | 0.00% | 98.6 | 64 | +1 |
| Rondale Moore (ATL) | 16 | 1.61% | 3.57% | 97.4 | 66 | 2.32% | 2.74% | 98.6 | 65 | +1 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | 15 | 4.44% | 0.00% | 96.6 | 67 | 3.81% | 7.01% | 95.3 | 71 | -4 |
| Joshua Palmer (LAC) | 10 | 3.28% | 0.00% | 95.7 | 68 | 4.30% | 0.00% | 99.4 | 63 | +5 |
| Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | 14 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 95.7 | 69 | 5.59% | 1.63% | 91.2 | 74 | -5 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 16 | 3.08% | 0.00% | 95.4 | 70 | 3.43% | 0.00% | 96.8 | 67 | +3 |
| Trey Palmer (TB) | 16 | 4.41% | 0.00% | 92.7 | 71 | 3.85% | 0.18% | 90.4 | 76 | -5 |
| Kalif Raymond (DET) | 16 | 2.27% | 0.00% | 90.4 | 72 | 2.90% | 2.18% | 93.0 | 72 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 10 | 1.56% | 0.00% | 89.8 | 73 | 3.21% | 0.00% | 96.1 | 69 | +4 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 16 | 2.99% | 0.00% | 89.7 | 74 | 3.66% | 0.79% | 92.5 | 73 | +1 |
| Robert Woods (HOU) | 14 | 1.33% | 0.00% | 89.3 | 75 | 2.90% | 0.49% | 96.4 | 68 | +7 |
| Justin Watson (KC) | 15 | 5.66% | 0.00% | 89.0 | 76 | 5.18% | 0.00% | 87.5 | 78 | -2 |
| Nelson Agholor (BAL) | 16 | 8.89% | 0.00% | 88.2 | 77 | 6.74% | 0.00% | 82.4 | 82 | -5 |
| Michael Gallup (LV) | 16 | 3.51% | 0.00% | 87.8 | 78 | 3.72% | 0.00% | 88.5 | 77 | +1 |
| Demarcus Robinson (LAR) | 8 | 10.26% | 0.00% | 87.4 | 79 | 9.51% | 1.09% | 85.7 | 80 | -1 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (TEN) | 13 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 85.0 | 80 | 5.89% | 0.00% | 82.9 | 81 | -1 |
| Jonathan Mingo (CAR) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 84.8 | 81 | 1.24% | 0.00% | 91.1 | 75 | +6 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 12 | 4.76% | 33.33% | 80.3 | 82 | 3.85% | 20.66% | 75.7 | 84 | -2 |
| Darnell Mooney (ATL) | 14 | 1.64% | 0.00% | 78.9 | 83 | 3.43% | 4.21% | 85.9 | 79 | +4 |
| Rashod Bateman (BAL) | 15 | 1.79% | 0.00% | 76.5 | 84 | 2.87% | 0.49% | 80.2 | 83 | +1 |
| DeVante Parker (PHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 70.8 | 85 | 0.96% | 0.00% | 74.0 | 85 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) | 15 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 68.0 | 86 | 2.69% | 2.14% | 68.5 | 88 | -2 |
| Zay Jones (ARI) | 8 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 67.4 | 87 | 4.33% | 0.00% | 72.0 | 86 | +1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. (NO) | 13 | 7.89% | 0.00% | 66.2 | 88 | 7.20% | 0.00% | 64.6 | 90 | -2 |
| Brandon Powell (MIN) | 16 | 2.27% | 0.00% | 65.9 | 89 | 3.90% | 0.91% | 70.5 | 87 | +2 |
| Chris Moore (ARI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 62.3 | 90 | 0.92% | 0.00% | 64.2 | 91 | -1 |
| Allen Robinson II (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 62.0 | 91 | 1.83% | 0.00% | 67.4 | 89 | +2 |
| Greg Dortch (ARI) | 15 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 61.1 | 92 | 4.10% | 0.00% | 59.2 | 97 | -5 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (NE) | 11 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 61.0 | 93 | 2.63% | 0.00% | 62.4 | 92 | +1 |
| Brandon Johnson (DEN) | 12 | 13.33% | 0.00% | 60.6 | 94 | 10.20% | 0.00% | 55.0 | 102 | -8 |
| Allen Lazard (NYJ) | 14 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 60.1 | 95 | 2.55% | 0.00% | 61.6 | 93 | +2 |
| Jalin Hyatt (NYG) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 58.8 | 96 | 0.89% | 0.00% | 60.9 | 95 | +1 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 13 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 57.8 | 97 | 4.89% | 1.53% | 56.7 | 101 | -4 |
| Xavier Gipson (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 12.50% | 57.3 | 98 | 2.28% | 8.93% | 60.8 | 96 | +2 |
| Trenton Irwin (CIN) | 14 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 57.2 | 99 | 5.23% | 0.00% | 61.3 | 94 | +5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 16 | 2.38% | 0.00% | 56.5 | 100 | 2.81% | 0.00% | 57.6 | 99 | +1 |
| Braxton Berrios (MIA) | 15 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 55.0 | 101 | 2.98% | 0.00% | 54.9 | 103 | -2 |
| Skyy Moore (KC) | 14 | 2.63% | 0.00% | 53.7 | 102 | 3.97% | 1.72% | 57.1 | 100 | +2 |
| Isaiah Hodgins (NYG) | 16 | 9.09% | 0.00% | 53.4 | 103 | 6.99% | 0.00% | 49.2 | 108 | -5 |
| Kadarius Toney (KC) | 13 | 2.63% | 0.00% | 53.0 | 104 | 4.10% | 4.20% | 59.1 | 98 | +6 |
| Calvin Austin III (PIT) | 16 | 3.33% | 9.09% | 51.9 | 105 | 2.47% | 6.24% | 48.5 | 109 | -4 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 13 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 51.5 | 106 | 3.38% | 0.00% | 52.2 | 104 | +2 |
| Mike Williams (NYJ) | 3 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 50.2 | 107 | 3.65% | 0.00% | 49.9 | 106 | +1 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 15 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 50.0 | 108 | 5.49% | 0.00% | 49.8 | 107 | +1 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 48.5 | 109 | 1.66% | 0.00% | 52.2 | 105 | +4 |
| Mack Hollins (BUF) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 43.1 | 110 | 1.65% | 0.00% | 46.1 | 110 | 0 |
| Alex Erickson | 7 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 40.3 | 111 | 3.05% | 0.00% | 39.6 | 114 | -3 |
| Treylon Burks (TEN) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 39.9 | 112 | 0.99% | 2.04% | 42.3 | 112 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson (PIT) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 38.0 | 113 | 1.30% | 0.00% | 41.4 | 113 | 0 |
| Cedric Tillman (CLE) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 36.9 | 114 | 2.29% | 0.31% | 43.0 | 111 | +3 |
| Tyler Scott (CHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 33.7 | 115 | 2.73% | 0.81% | 39.3 | 115 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. (CAR) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 31.4 | 116 | 1.45% | 0.00% | 34.3 | 118 | -2 |
| John Metchie III (HOU) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.7 | 117 | 2.74% | 7.33% | 36.1 | 116 | +1 |
| Parris Campbell (PHI) | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.4 | 118 | 2.39% | 0.00% | 34.3 | 117 | +1 |
