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DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (6/23)

DraftKings MLB Lineup Advice: Friday (6/23)

I’m downright giddy about the offensive firepower on the squad below. The SP1 fronting this team is underpriced with a sub-five figure salary, and he’ll almost certainly command a high ownership rate as a result (which he should). Chris Archer is the only other big-ticket starting pitcher I’d advocate using, but he costs nearly a full $3,000 more than our SP1, meaning you’ll need to spin down to some of the cheaper honorable mentions below in order to fit him in under the salary cap. Our SP2 is a bit of a dice roll, and with an ERA hovering around five, I don’t expect him to garner a ton of attention. The underlying metrics are kinder, his matchup is excellent, and at a bargain-bin price, he awards us the ability to load up on bats. The volatility of the SP2 makes this a better GPP fit than cash games, but the bar is so low for him to hit value, the following roster can also be used in cash games despite featuring a more volatile arm than I’d typically suggest using.

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Pitcher

Alex Wood (LAD): $9,600 vs. Rockies

It’s not hyperbole to say Wood has pitched like an ace this year. In fact, it’s not hyperbole to say he’s been the best left-handed pitcher for the Dodgers this season. Seriously, that’s no exaggeration per fWAR. He’s besting Clayton Kershaw in numerous advanced marks as well as the traditional stats. In 10 starts totaling 56.1 innings this year, Wood’s dazzled with a 2.08 ERA (2.14 FIP, 2.50 xFIP, and 2.67 SIERA, according to FanGraphs, as well as a 2.53 DRA, per Baseball Prospectus), 0.99 WHIP, 6.3% BB%, 30.5% K%, 66.4% GB%, and 11.9% SwStr%. He hasn’t skipped a beat since returning from the disabled list, and the lefty and the Dodgers are -187 favorites in a game with an over/under total of only eight runs, per Pinnacle, against the visiting Rockies. Colorado ranks in the middle of the pack in wRC+ (92) against lefties ranking 16th, and his 23.6% K% against them gives Wood some strikeout upside. Unsurprisingly, the Rockies also struggle on the road ranking tied for 20th in wRC+ (88) and carrying a 23.5% K%. They just wrapped up a home series yesterday, and their task will be exceptionally difficult adjusting to life away from their Rocky Mountain thin air in the first game of an NL West showdown series with the Dodgers. Wood should have his way with Colorado and is likely to be the highest owned starting pitcher in GPPs.

Luis Perdomo (SDP): $5,600 vs. Tigers

As I noted in the intro, I don’t believe Perdomo will carry a big ownership rate. Last year he made a massive jump from the low minors to the Majors sticking on San Diego’s roster as a Rule 5 pick, and this year he’s made advancements that belie his ugly 4.97 ERA. Hidden behind the ERA is a 4.53 FIP, 3.94 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA, and 4,88 DRA. Some of the advanced metrics are kinder than others, but the point is that he’s not as bad as his ERA indicates. The young righty is a worm-burner-inducing machine with a 64.1% GB%, and his curve and slider give him a pair of strikeout pitches a 23.4% SwStr% and 16.4% SwStr%, respectively. Perdomo has a massive platoon split and struggles mightily with lefties, but Detroit’s lineup lacks the left-handed bats to exploit that. Perdomo’s .318 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters isn’t any great shakes, but it’s not woeful, either. Three blow-up starts mask the fact Perdomo’s been relatively decent. He’s allowed 18 of his 37 earned runs in those three starts spanning only 12.1 innings. Eight of those earned runs were allowed in a beat down handed down by the Diamondbacks late last month, and his most recent poor starting was also against the Diamondbacks and featured five earned runs allowed in four innings at Chase Field. The 24-year-old pitcher has made back-to-back quality starts and four in his last five. The Tigers are only small -130 favorites in a game with a pitcher-friendly over/under total of 7.5 runs. The low total and small favorite status might seem odd at first blush, but the Tigers are awful on the road. They rank 23rd in wRC+ (84) and have punched out at a 24.4% clip on the road this year. I like Perdomo’s odds of delivering a start that will justify such a small salary commitment.

Honorable Mentions

Catcher

Cameron Rupp (PHI): $2,900 @ Diamondbacks

Rupp had a bit of buzz in season-long leagues during draft season, but by and large, the lefty killer is an afterthought at catcher, and he’ll serve as a high-upside, low-salary, low-ownership option on this roster. Since 2014, he’s amassed a .362 OBP, .258 ISO, and 143 wRC+ against southpaws, and he’s been in excellent form against them this year with a .397 OBP, .245 ISO, and 141 wRC+. Rupp’s value gets a boost from playing at Chase Field and facing Patrick Corbin, too. Chase Field has right-handed batter park factors of 122 for doubles/triples, 121 for homers, and 116 for runs, per StatCorner, and Corbin has been crushed by righties yielding a .367 OBP, .529 SLG, and .377 wOBA to them this year.

Honorable Mentions

First Base

Yonder Alonso (OAK): $4,300 @ White Sox

I was on the fence between Alonso and fellow elevate-and-celebrator Logan Morrison. Both first basemen have unlocked their plus power by taking to the air more frequently, and while Ubaldo Jimenez makes for a great matchup, it should also generate more ownership for LoMo. Alonso is a cheaper pivot who has a dreamy matchup, too. Mike Pelfrey‘s .310 wOBA ceded to left-handed batters is smoke and mirrors. He’s coughed up a 37.9% Hard% to them, and he’s doing a poor job of keeping the ball on the ground with a 38.4% GB% and 40.7% FB%. He’s riding a lucky 11.4% HR/FB% allowed to lefties to his surprisingly decent wOBA, but that’s due for serious regression that Alonso more than capable of helping provide.

Honorable Mentions

Second Base

Jed Lowrie (OAK): $3,700 @ White Sox

As has often been the case when I tout Alonso at first base, I tout Lowrie at the keystone position. Their proximity to each other in the lineup (Lowrie hits third and Alonso hits fifth) makes them a natural pairing. The switch-hitting second baseman has pummeled righties this year and will benefit from Pelfrey’s impending regression, too. Did I mention that the White Sox are only -110 favorites at home in a game with a 10.5 runs over/under total? Yeah, that’s eye catching. Hook the duo and enjoy the fact they’re underpriced.

Honorable Mentions

Third Base

Jake Lamb (ARI): $5,200 vs. Phillies

There are other options at third base, sure. However, unless Lamb gets an unexpected night off, I see no reason to turn to them. As a result, I’m not including any honorable mentions at the hot corner tonight. Pay up for Lamb at home likely against righty Mark Leiter (Philadelphia has yet to make it official at the time of writing, but all indications are Leiter will get the ball tonight). Since breaking out last year, Lamb has recorded a .368 OBP, .311 ISO, and 138 wRC+ at home against righties.

Shortstop

Eric Sogard (MIL): $3,900 @ Braves

I keep waiting for the clock to strike midnight and Sogard to turn into a pumpkin, but it hasn’t happened yet. Over the last 30 days, the former Athletic has a .410 OBP and 124 wRC+. In a late-career breakout, Sogard has accumulated a .485 OBP, .163 ISO, and 169 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year. Righty Mike Foltynewicz is unlikely to nudge the hands on the clock closer to midnight with a .412 OBP, .529 SLG, and .402 wOBA allowed to lefties this season.

Honorable Mentions

Outfield

Bryce Harper (WAS): $5,500 vs. Reds

The outfield on this team is stacked beyond belief, and it starts with Harper. The 2015 National League Most Valuable Player is playing like a man who wants to add another MVP award to his collection. He’s tattooed righties this year with a .438 OBP, .337 ISO, and 171 wRC+. Oh, and just for funsies, he’s sporting a higher walk rate (17.8%) than strikeout rate (16.4%) against righties this year. Good luck, rookie Luis Castillo. Harper isn’t looking to roll the red carpet out for a young starter making his first appearance above the Double-A level.

Corey Dickerson (TBR): $4,700 vs. Orioles

I mentioned contemplating LoMo at first base above and noted the juicy matchup with Jimenez. Ubaldo has yielded a .377 OBP, .635 SLG, .415 wOBA, and 10 homers to the 123 lefties he’s faced this year. No one will be sleeping on Dickerson in this matchup, but I’ll gladly eat the chalk for a hitter who owns a .354 OBP, .273 ISO, and 148 wRC+ against righties this year.

Eric Thames (MIL): $4,600 @ Braves

Thames hasn’t matched his out-of-this-world start of late. In fact, he’s scuffled and looked more like an all-or-nothing hitter with a .179 AVG, .322 OBP, .284 ISO, and 100 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but a matchup with Foltynewicz bodes well for more of the all than the nothing tonight. As an added bonus, because Thames hasn’t been tearing the cover off of the ball and the outfield and first base have plenty of appealing options, I don’t believe he’ll have a high ownership rate tonight.

Honorable Mentions

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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