Carolina Panthers (-5.0) at San Francisco 49ers Over/Under: 48.0
Another game with a lot of variables in it, as the Panthers have a lot of new pieces on offense, as well as the concerns with Cam Newton‘s shoulder. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense doesn’t have the same quarterback or six of the top seven targeted players from last year. There are so many moving parts, so it’s hard to say if the fact that the 49ers allowed 30 or more points to nine of their last 15 opponents matter. Talent depth is still a problem for them, but coaching can go a long way in narrowing the gap in score.
QBs: Despite this being a prime matchup to target, it’s hard to say that Newton should be a surefire QB1 in what is essentially his first game since shoulder surgery. He needed to take a few weeks off during training camp because it was a bit sore, making him a tournament option only in DFS. It really stinks, too, because four of his 19 passing touchdowns (21 percent) came against the 49ers last year. It was also just one of the two games where he threw for more than 300 yards in 2016. If you could find a way to convince me he was 100 percent, I’d say he was a top-five play, but you can’t. The Panthers should be able to win this game by running the ball 40 times, which is another concern for his outlook. Brian Hoyer should be considered in 2QB leagues, but not much else. The Panthers struggled to start 2016, but allowed just one quarterback to top 17.4 fantasy points from Week 9 through Week 17.
RBs: If you spent a third-round pick on Christian McCaffrey, get excited because he should get his career off to a hot start in Week 1. Not only are the Panthers likely to take it easy on Newton’s pass attempts, but they’re also likely to keep the throws he does make intermediate, the area McCaffrey rules. He should be started as a high-end RB2 against a team that allowed 14 running backs to hit 16 or more PPR points in 2016. You won’t hear me say this often, but you can also confidently start Jonathan Stewart as an RB2/flex in this matchup. The 49ers may not be as bad as they were in 2016, but the core of this unit allowed 5.0 YPC and 23 rushing touchdowns to running backs last year. Carlos Hyde is also someone who can be safely placed into your lineups, as he’s the lead back in a Kyle Shanahan-led offense. I don’t think I need to remind you that his running backs produced 43 total touchdowns over the last two years. Yes, you read that right. Hyde finished as the No. 10 running back last year on a point per game basis while on a bottom-eight scoring offense. The Panthers defense is among the better run-stopping units in the league, but the element of surprise is on Hyde’s side, as there is no tape on the Shanahan offense in San Francisco. He’s a solid volume RB2 at worst in this matchup. You shouldn’t count on Matt Breida for anything in his first game that’ll likely have negative game-script.
WRs: Kelvin Benjamin looked great in the preseason, scoring two touchdowns, including one of them from Newton on a two-yard slant, which was one of Newton’s two completions in the preseason. He’ll likely line up across from the 49ers fourth-round pick from last year, Rashard Robinson. He was a bit hit-or-miss in his coverage last year, but the concern with Benjamin is Newton and whether or not he can make the throws in his first week back. I’ll lean towards yes, he can, but not enough to confidently start Benjamin in DFS. In season-long, consider Benjamin a low-end WR2. While Devin Funchess has been on the field for all starter snaps, he’s a guy you should take the wait-and-see approach with, though you could do worse than him for a cheap wide receiver play. Panthers top cornerback James Bradberry didn’t shadow in 2016, but you have to wonder if that changes in 2017, and especially in this matchup where Pierre Garcon is the lone wide receiver who can consistently beat them. If they don’t shadow, Garcon could produce solid WR2-type numbers. With the risk of Bradberry following him around, Garcon is a WR3 for me this week. But it is important to note that the Panthers allowed at least one wide receiver in 13 of their last 15 games of 2016 to score at least 14.5 PPR points, and they were both divisional opponents. Marquise Goodwin is always one play away from posting WR2 numbers, but don’t count on that in season-long leagues. If you’re playing in a lot of DFS tournaments, maybe throw him in a few lineups.
TEs: As the case with all Panthers pass catchers, you’ll have to start them at your own risk. Greg Olsen is a tight end, but he’s not exactly used like that, being targeted down the field more than any other tight end in football. NFL’s NextGenStats show me that his 11.5 air yards per target ranked No. 1 among tight ends, with the next closest at 10.6 air yards. He carries a little more risk with Newton at less than 100 percent, but he destroyed this secondary last year for 122 yards and a touchdown. Start him if you got him and don’t go too crazy in DFS with him until we know Newton is okay. Don’t mess around with any tight end from the 49ers, as we don’t even know who the primary pass-catcher will be. Even if we knew it was George Kittle, would you feel confident starting him? I’d say no, even in a great matchup against the Panthers.
Prediction: Panthers 27, 49ers 23
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) Over/Under: 47.5
It seems that the oddsmakers in Vegas are putting a lot of stock in last year’s finish for the Cowboys, because there is no way they should be favored over a far superior team. The Cowboys have not only lost their top two cornerbacks from last season, but they also lost two of their top three safeties, and they have three players who are facing suspensions in Week 1, including their best interior defensive lineman David Irving. The Giants had no significant losses this offseason and were a team that allowed just one team to score more than 24 points in 2016. I’m not going to lie, I thought the line was misprinted with the wrong team favored, despite the Cowboys being at home.
QBs: It’s always scary placing Eli Manning into your starting lineup and I’m not ever going to tell you to do that with 100 percent confidence, but as you’ve already read, the Cowboys defense he’ll be playing isn’t the same one they were last year. In their two meetings last year, Manning totaled 400 passing yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions while throwing the ball just 28 times in each game. Consider him one of the better QB2’s this week and also consider it an excellent opportunity to stick him in a few tournament lineups. If you were to go and ask 100 people how they feel about Manning, 98 of them would say he’s bad, which means he’ll be under-owned. For as much as I love Dak Prescott, you don’t want to play him over other solid options this week. Of his 15 games (that he played the whole game) last year, there were just three times he didn’t score at least 17.5 fantasy points and two of them came against the Giants. He failed to throw a touchdown in either of his meetings with them and a lot of it has to do with them taking away his top option in Dez Bryant. He’s just a QB2 this week, but there’ll be better days ahead for him.
RBs: Repeat after me, Paul Perkins is a starting running back on what should be a high-scoring offense. After being under-drafted this offseason, Perkins should provide borderline RB2 value right from the get-go simply on volume. The Cowboys were one of the best in the NFL at stopping the run last year, but they did allow the Giants running backs to combine for 208 rushing yards on 55 carries last year in the two games they played. They’ll also likely run more plays in this game if the Cowboys and Prescott have trouble moving the ball. Shane Vereen is a low-upside RB4 who I’d avoid in fantasy leagues. It now appears as if Ezekiel Elliott will play in this game, which makes him a must-start, despite the tough matchup. There were just three running backs who totaled more than 3.8 yards per carry against the Giants in their final 11 games of 2016 (Elliott was one of them), and they allowed just six running backs to score more than 12 PPR points against them all season (Elliott was not one of them). In the two games they played last year, Elliott totaled 20 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting and then 24 carries for 107 scoreless yards in their second meeting. He caught just one pass in those two games, an area they’ve reportedly looked to increase his usage this year. If you locked up Darren McFadden to cover for Elliott, don’t let go of him, as it still appears likely Elliott misses six games this year, and possibly starting in Week 2.
WRs: Not knowing the health status of Odell Beckham Jr. is definitely worrisome, as if he were to come back too early from his high-ankle sprain, it could lengthen his recovery time. If he plays, you must start him. The true beneficiary of Beckham being less than 100 percent is Brandon Marshall, who should feast on the Cowboys cornerbacks Nolan Carroll, Anthony Brown, and Orlando Scandrick. Carroll was one of the worst cornerbacks in the league last year and he’ll be replacing Morris Claiborne who left for the Jets this offseason. Scandrick has been promising at times, but is able to be beat, especially by the talent of someone like Marshall. Brown looked solid in limited time last year, but again, playing against Marshall is a task. If Beckham plays, look at Marshall as a WR3 with upside. If Beckham sits, Marshall belongs in the WR2 conversation. Sterling Shepard was another wide receiver banged up in training camp, but he appears to be a go for Week 1. Consider him a risky WR4 if Beckham plays, and a low-end WR3 if Beckham sits. This entire offseason, I’ve said that Dez Bryant has some brutal matchups, and it starts right out of the gate against Janoris Jenkins who shut him down in 2016. In two meetings, Bryant was held to just two catches for 18 yards and no touchdowns. That was in the two games COMBINED. He saw a total of 14 targets, so it wasn’t for lack of trying. I’m not going to say that Bryant is unplayable, but you need to keep expectations realistic. If he can post 50 yards and a touchdown, consider yourself lucky. He’s a risky WR2 this week. It’s hard to recommend any pass catcher for the Cowboys against the Giants, but Cole Beasley is someone who you can play in a pinch in PPR leagues, as he totaled 12 receptions for 106 yards in their matchups last year. Terrance Williams is just a touchdown-dependent WR5, though he did score against them in their Week 14 matchup last year.
TEs: It’s hard recommending a rookie tight end in his first NFL game, but Evan Engram may have more work than expected with all of the wide receivers dinged up. He’s also going against the team that allowed the most fantasy points to tight ends in 2016. On the year, they allowed over 1,200 yards to the position, including seven tight ends to record 70 or more yards. Consider him a high-upside streaming option, even in his first game. Jason Witten seems to always do well against the Giants, and here’s what he’s averaged in his last five games against them: 8.8 targets, 6.2 receptions, 51.0 yards, and 0.6 touchdowns. Considering how badly Bryant has struggled against the Giants, Witten should see similar results to these in Week 1. He’s a dependable TE1.
Prediction: Giants 24, Cowboys 23
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) Over/Under 48.0
This should be an interesting conundrum for those who use the “Drew Brees is bad on the road” argument, because the game will be indoors. As It’s also got the whole “Adrian Peterson returns to Minnesota” narrative that the media has already jumped on. This is a low total for the Saints, as they’re typically in the 50’s. It’s a sign of respect for the Vikings defense who allowed just 18.0 points per game at home last year, and there were just two teams who scored more than 26 points against them all year (Colts and Packers). Meanwhile, the Saints allowed a massive 28.4 points per game last season, which was the second-most in the league.
QBs: The idea that Brees isn’t good on the road simply isn’t true – he’s just less than great than he is at home. Over the last three years, Brees has averaged 301 passing yards and 1.9 touchdowns on the road, which would amount to 19.64 fantasy points, or what would have been the No. 5 quarterback on a point per game basis last year. Don’t worry about his road splits as much as some say, but it is concerning that the Vikings allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than 271 yards against them last year. Outside of Aaron Rodgers, the biggest game they allowed to a quarterback was Andrew Luck‘s 250 yards passing and two touchdowns. Brees is still a QB1, but with limited upside. Sam Bradford on the other hand is a very sneaky option in Week 1 against a Saints defense that allowed 11 of 16 quarterbacks to score at least 16.5 fantasy points in 2016. In fact, half of the quarterbacks they played threw for more than 300 yards. He’s a solid cash-game option this week and makes for a solid Andrew Luck replacement in season-long leagues.
RBs: While I’ve said all offseason that Mark Ingram is the one you want from this backfield, it’s hard not to recommend Adrian Peterson this week who’ll be playing the team that released him. He’s commented on the situation, saying “Of course I want to stick it to them. I want to stick it to everyone we play. But going back to Minnesota, playing the Vikings? Yeah, I want to stick it to them.” You shouldn’t ever buy into narratives too much, but Peterson is playing on the best offense of his career and has been one of the best goal-line running backs all-time. Consider him a solid RB2 this week who is likely to score. That doesn’t mean you bench Ingram, either, who is a solid RB2 in his own right. The Vikings were a solid run defense to start last year, but did allow 4.4 yards per carry after their bye week, including four 100-rushing yard performances in their last 10 games. Dalvin Cook was someone who saw a lot of work in the preseason and appears to be the starter, but don’t assume that means Latavius Murray will be obsolete. He’s likely to see the majority of goal-line work, taking away some of the upside Cook presents. The Saints allowed 18 rushing scores to running backs last year, making Murray an interesting last-ditch-effort RB4-type player this week. Cook should be looked at as a solid RB2 in a great matchup, but you’re better off looking elsewhere in tournaments if Murray is getting goal-line work. Jerick McKinnon should not be on fantasy rosters right now, as he’ll require some sort of injury to be an option.
WRs: After the news came out about Willie Snead being suspended for the first three weeks, it should have given us more clarity on the Saints wide receivers, but for some reason it gave us more questions to answer. Michael Thomas is going to be targeted early and often, despite having one of his tougher matchups of the year against Xavier Rhodes. In coverage last year, Rhodes allowed less than a 50 percent catch rate, the lowest among cornerbacks who saw at least 35 targets. Still, trot Thomas out there as a strong WR2, and figure that Sean Payton will move Thomas around the formation to escape Rhodes’ coverage. Ted Ginn is always going to be a boom-or-bust option, but worth it a majority of the time as a WR3. This week is not different as he’ll see some of 39-year-old Terence Newman in coverage. Brandon Coleman makes for an interesting punt-option in tournaments, as he’ll reportedly play the ‘big-slot’ role for the Saints, a role that Marques Colston used to handle. Stefon Diggs is a must-start WR2 in this contest, as the Saints are without their top cornerback Delvin Breaux and will likely try to stick former undrafted cornerback Ken Crawley on him the majority of the time. He wasn’t bad last year when filling in, but did show weaknesses at times. When healthy, Diggs has been lights out – start him. Adam Thielen will look forward to proving that he’s not a one-year-wonder in 2017 and has a good chance to do that out of the slot in Week 1, as the Saints seemed to struggle with slot wide receivers last year. Consider him a solid WR3 in this matchup. Let’s make Laquon Treadwell prove it to us before trusting him in lineups.
TEs: While most want to try and figure out who’ll fill the Snead role out of the slot, Coby Fleener seems to have gone under the radar. There was just one game that Snead missed last year, and in that game Fleener posted 7/109/1. This could very well be a coincidence, but with Brandin Cooks out of town, it freed up a lot of targets over the middle of the field as well. With that being said, the Vikings weren’t easy on tight ends last year, allowing just of them to total more than four receptions all year. Fleener is still a solid streamer with the lack of target options for Brees. Kyle Rudolph led all tight ends in targets last year and the only thing that really changed in the passing game is Treadwell replacing Cordarrelle Patterson. The Saints did hold some really good tight ends in check last year and allowed just five touchdowns to them all season. Rudolph is still a TE1 with his big target projection, but this is a matchup where the wide receivers should shine.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Saints 26
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3.5) Over/Under: 43.0
The second Monday night game of the week, we get a divisional showdown between two teams who feature some of the better defenses in the league. Most don’t realize how good the Chargers defense can be with the combination of Jason Verrett and Casey Hayward in the secondary, and then Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram leading the front-seven. The Broncos made a surprise cut of T.J. Ward last week, which doesn’t exactly help their chances as repeating as the best defense in the NFL. Last year, their unit allowed an opponent more than 23 points just three times. So when you see a total of just 43 points, you likely understand why.
QBs: It’s a different year, but for those of you who played fantasy football last year know that you didn’t play quarterbacks against the Broncos. Philip Rivers was no exception to that rule, as he combined to complete just 38 of 76 attempts (50 percent) for 445 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions in the two games they played last year, good enough for finishes with 11.1 and 12.7 fantasy points. He finished as the QB22 and QB23 in those matchups. Consider him a risky QB2 while on the road against the Broncos. Trevor Siemian is in a similar boat, as he didn’t fare much better than Rivers did against the Chargers last year. There were just three games last year in which the Chargers didn’t allow at least one passing touchdown, but Siemian was one of them. He’s just a low-end QB2 on Monday night.
RBs: The Chargers attempted to help out their run game this offseason by bringing in run-blocking left tackle Russell Okung and drafting two interior lineman, but they lost one of them (Forrest Lamp) during training camp. Still, it’s hard to say that they didn’t at least make a stride in the right direction. Melvin Gordon was relied on as one of the lone workhorses in the NFL last year, finishing third behind only Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson in touches per game. In the two games against the Broncos, he toted the ball 50 times for 205 yards and added another 44 yards receiving. His ceiling gets lowered a tad with Branden Oliver there to catch passes, but Gordon remains a volume RB1 most weeks. Oliver is just a desperation option in PPR leagues, though I’m sure you can find better options. The Broncos built their offensive line this offseason in order to run the ball and they now have a healthy C.J. Anderson to help them do that. In the lone meeting with the Chargers last year, Anderson touched the ball just 14 times for a combined 71 yards, though he did not score. The Chargers will be without starting inside linebacker Denzel Perryman for this game, which does present opportunity for the Broncos to attack the middle of the field. Anderson should be considered just an low-end RB2 until we know how much of a split it will be between him and Jamaal Charles, though I suspect Anderson should be the leader in a 70/30 split. Charles is a risky flex-play considering we haven’t seen him play a full game since back in 2015. He looked better than expected in the third preseason game, but there is plenty of risk with playing him in any format.
WRs: We get to see Keenan Allen back on the field this week, but bad news that it’s against the ‘no-fly zone’ of Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib, who combined to allow just 750 yards and three touchdowns on 150 targets in coverage last year. That’s good, I mean really good. Allen will see a lot of Harris Jr. in the slot, making him just a WR3 in this matchup. Did I mention that the Broncos secondary didn’t even allow a wide receiver to top 98 yards all season? They also played against some really good opponents. Tyrell Williams is a risky WR4 who totaled a combined four catches for 32 yards against them in two games last year. The best bet of the bunch to score a touchdown would probably be Travis Benjamin, who needs just one play to go the right way in order to live up to his DFS salary. He scored just one of the seven touchdowns they allowed to wide receivers last year. For the most part, you want to avoid wide receivers playing against the Broncos. It’ll be tough recommending Demaryius Thomas who is apparently dealing with a groin injury that’s caused him to miss some practice time this week. He’ll see Casey Hayward a majority of the time, while Emmanuel Sanders will see Jason Verrett, who missed the majority of 2016 due to a torn ACL. They should both be considered as low-end WR2’s against this secondary and avoided in DFS. If forced to choose, I’ll take the one I know is healthy and that’s Sanders. There isn’t another wide receiver on the Broncos to consider.
TEs: As we saw in the preseason, Antonio Gates isn’t just going to go away quietly for the Hunter Henry supporters. He needs just one more touchdown to tie the all-time record, which may happen against a Broncos defense that struggled with tight ends in 2016. There were six different ones who finished with double digit PPR days, including 19 receptions, 261 yards, and a touchdown in the two games against Travis Kelce. Don’t just write off Gates – he makes for a solid low-end TE1 against the Broncos. Until we see a changing of the guard, consider Henry an ultra-high-upside TE2 who’ll depend on touchdowns for his fantasy points. The Broncos seem to be going forward with Virgil Green as their starter, though I’d argue that A.J. Derby should have the job. The Chargers allowed just four touchdowns to tight ends all last year – Green should be far off your fantasy radar.
Prediction: Broncos 23, Chargers 20
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-8.5) Over/Under: 48.0
In the first game of the season, fireworks should be expected. I mean, these teams have had months to prepare for this game. They know each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Not to mention the fact that it’s a game featuring two of the league’s best coaches, Bill Belichick and Andy Reid. The last five season-openers have produced totals of 41 points, 49 points (Patriots scored 28 that game), 52 points, 76 points, and 41 points. Summing that up, there should be plenty of points scored.
QBs: With all the new pieces in the Patriots offense, there’s no way to prepare for the gameplan the Patriots may have. Not just that, but the Chiefs allowed 23.1 points per game on the road last year, compared to just 16.0 points allowed at home. Factoring everything in, Tom Brady is an elite QB1 in this matchup. On the other side of the field, Alex Smith may throw more pass attempts than normal. There were just five games last year in which the Chiefs allowed 27 or more points. Smith averaged 39.0 attempts in those games with just 29.4 attempts in all other games. His two best fantasy games from last year came in games where they allowed 27 or more points. Smith is a solid quarterback in 2QB leagues, but shouldn’t need be used in standard leagues.
RBs: It was going to be a week to stay away from Chiefs running backs – that was until Spencer Ware got knocked out for the season. Kareem Hunt was immediately named the starter, showing Reid’s confidence in the rookie. Don’t worry about Charcandrick West, as they wouldn’t have drafted Hunt if they were confident in his ability to backup Ware. Despite walking into a great role, Hunt should be looked at as touchdown-dependent RB2 against a Patriots team who’s better than expected against the run. They didn’t allow a single running back to rush for 90 yards last year, which speaks volumes. He’ll need to get it done through the air if he’s going to approach RB1 territory. On the Patriots side of the ball, this game suits their pass-catching backs well, as the Chiefs allowed five running backs to total at least 42 receiving yards in their last seven games of 2016. They lost DT Dontari Poe this offseason, but replaced him with Bennie Logan, which may turn out to be a wash. With the high projected total, Mike Gillislee should have a good chance to hit pay dirt, though it may not be one of the “Blount games” we always talk about. The Chiefs opponents did average 27.7 carries per game last year, eighth-most in the league. Look at Gillislee as a strong RB2 in season-long and as a tournament play in DFS. James White, Rex Burkhead, and Dion Lewis are all tournament plays without having any clue about how they’ll be used (nobody does), though I’d take my shot on White if forced to pick one.
WRs: Jeremy Maclin is gone, leaving Tyreek Hill as the top dog in the Chiefs passing game, though you shouldn’t get too excited about him in this matchup. Belichick is one of the best at taking away the opponents best wide receiver, and considering there aren’t any other big threats outside of Travis Kelce, Hill will see a lot of attention. He’s a low-end WR2 in season-long and a tournament play at best in DFS. Between Chris Conley and Albert Wilson, you aren’t playing them in season-long, but Conley is an interesting tournament play with Hill garnering a lot of attention. Brandin Cooks should be considered a WR1, despite matching up with Marcus Peters, who is known to be an all-or-nothing cornerback. That’s not something you want to do against Cooks. Chris Hogan should also be a solid fantasy play if he slides into the slot in place of Edelman, as the Chiefs just lost slot cornerback Steven Nelson to an injury, and he wasn’t good to begin with. That doesn’t say much for the backups in his place. Don’t get cute and use Hogan over a proven commodity; wait to see how he’s used if possible. The Chiefs allowed 14 wide receivers to accumulate six or more receptions last year. As for the remaining Patriots wide receivers, they’re just punt plays, though Danny Amendola is intriguing as the potential fill-in for Edelman.
TEs: You don’t need me to tell you to start both Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce in this matchup, but with that being said, it’s fair to shy away from Gronkowski in DFS, as the Chiefs are one of the best teams against tight ends seemingly every year. They ranked No. 3 against them last year, allowing just 45 yards per game and four touchdowns, and also ranked No. 1 in 2015 while allowing just 40 yards per game and allowing just two touchdowns. You never want to completely fade Gronkowski if you’re playing multiple tournament lineups, but it’s one of the weeks where you should have less exposure. The Patriots only allowed three touchdowns to tight ends themselves last year, but did allow 70 or more yards to tight ends in four different contests. Their competition was also some of the weakest in the league. If Smith is going to be throwing more than usual, Kelce should be the main beneficiary.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Chiefs 23
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.