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Running Back Snap Count Analysis: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

Running Back Snap Count Analysis: Week 4 (Fantasy Football)

This week, I throw a half-dozen running back situations under the microscope. Not included among them is Minnesota’s. Dalvin Cook suffered a season-ending ACL tear. Both Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon are worth adding to see how the playing time situation shakes out. Neither back projects to receive the type of workload Cook did, and my best guess is that Murray will pick up the goal-line work, McKinnon will handle the pass-catching duties, and the carries between the 20’s will go to the hot hand, which is obviously not ideal for fantasy purposes. As for the backfields highlighted, pass-catching backs are mostly the rage among the six situations, but one pass-catching extraordinaire’s stock continues to plummet thanks to a post-hype sleeper turning his promise into production.

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Cardinals last week vs. 49ers, this week @ Colts

 
Ellington’s nearly 10 snap advantage in average snaps played per game over Chris Johnson is actually slightly misleading since Johnson wasn’t active in the first game and Ellington played only 20 snaps with David Johnson healthy enough to play 46. The smallest margin in snaps played between Ellington and Johnson in the last three games is 11 in favor of Ellington in last week’s game. Arizona’s offense has been the least effective on the ground averaging a league-low 57.0 yards rushing per game, per Pro-Football Reference. Ellington does his best work through the air, and he’s averaging 4.8 receptions and 48.0 yards per game as a receiver while chipping in 12.8 yards per game on 3.0 rush attempts per game. In a close game the Cardinals won in overtime against the 49ers last week, Ellington was targeted 14 times and reeled in nine receptions for 86 yards. The 28-year-old back won’t simply be a game-flow dependent option, as the close game last week illustrated, and his abilities as a pass catcher could be used as an alternative to ineffectively running the ball. He’s far and away the back to own in this backfield, and neither Johnson or Williams are worth rostering as the former looks washed and the latter has only played three snaps the last two weeks combined.

Ravens last week vs. Steelers, this week @ Raiders

Player Snaps
Javorius Allen 40
Alex Collins 17
Terrance West 11

 
Buck Allen remains the best back in the bunch in Baltimore, and as long as the offense continues to sputter, it’s unlikely the club will have big leads to protect with a ground-and-pound approach and will need their best receiving back to keep leading the way in snaps played. Allen’s work on the ground leaves a lot to be desired, though, as his carries and rushing yards have gone down every week and bottomed out last week with two carries and seven yards rushing. He did, however, set season highs in receptions (six) and receiving yards (37). He’s a fringe flex play in PPR leagues, but his appeal in standard scoring leagues is limited. Of course, that doesn’t say much about the lesser backs in standard scoring leagues, but that could change. Former Seahawk Alex Collins has rushed for exactly 82 yards in back-to-back games, and he’s averaging a whopping 8.2 yards per carry with an insane 24.0% Breakaway Run Rate (rushes of 15 yards or more), according to PlayerProfiler.com. Collins’ big-play ability won’t matter if he continues to put the ball on the ground, though. Collins lost a fumble for the second week in a row, and, as Edward Lee of The Baltimore Sun points out, the fumble issues for Collins date back to college where he fumbled 17 times and lost nine in a three-year collegiate career. The linked article provides quotes from head coach John Harbaugh that point out he believes Collins’ fumble problems can be fixed, but it also provides quotes that clearly indicate continued problems with turning the ball over won’t be tolerated. Collins is worth rostering in 12-team leagues or larger. West, though, isn’t worth holding at this point in 12-team leagues or shallower. Sure, he’s reached the end zone twice this year, but he’s been awful as a runner (30.3 yards per game at 3.3 yards per carry), and he’s a total non-factor in the passing game (four targets in four games).

Browns last week vs. Bengals, this week vs. Jets

Player Snaps
Duke Johnson 36
Isaiah Crowell 22

 
Johnson out snapped Crowell for the second time this year, and he played just three fewer snaps than Crowell in the other two games combined. Johnson’s been one of the better receiving backs since being drafted in 2015, and he’s kicked things up a notch this year with new highs in receptions per game (5.0), yards per reception (10.4), and yards receiving per game (51.8). He also flashed some dynamic running ability last year averaging 4.9 yards per carry, albeit on just 73 carries. He’s once again rarely being used as a runner, but he’s making the most of his opportunities this year with a new career-high 5.7 yards per carry and two touchdown runs. Johnson has surpassed Crowell in the fantasy pecking order in the backfield in Cleveland since he’s game-flow proof and going to get touches whether the game is close or the Browns are playing catch up. After making strides in the receiving game last year, Crowell’s reverted back to his pre-2016 form, and he’s completely game-flow dependent for value. He’s faced some tough run defenses this year, so I’m willing to cut him a little bit of slack for his paltry 33.5 yards rushing per game and 2.9 yards per carry, but he’s not a fantasy starter at this point. His limitations and my skepticism of the Browns giving him many leads to protect this year make him a player I wouldn’t try to “buy low.” He’s basically a hold, or if he’s been cut, he’s a viable bench option to scoop out of the free agent pool.

Lions last week @ Vikings this week vs. Panthers

Player Snaps
Ameer Abdullah 33
Zach Zenner 19
Theo Riddick 18

 
Abdullah has arrived as a legitimate RB2. He’s carried the ball 14 times or more in all four games, and he’s even being used in the passing game with exactly three receptions in three of four games. He’s averaging 80.6 yards from scrimmage per game on 16.5 carries and 2.3 receptions per game, and he reached the end zone for the first time this year last week on a three-yard rush. The third-year pro is a top-20 RB going forward. Meanwhile, Riddick is almost unrosterable even in full-point PPR leagues and completely unrosterable in standard scoring leagues. He’s averaging a career-low 6.4 yards per reception, and after averaging five or more receptions per game each of the last two years, he’s down to 3.5 receptions per game for only 22.5 receiving yards per game. Furthermore, he’s been non-existent in the running game with just 3.5 attempts per game and 23 yards rushing through four games.

Giants last week @ Buccaneers, this week vs. Chargers

Player Snaps
Wayne Gallman 31
Paul Perkins 27
Shane Vereen 22

 
If you still own Perkins, you’re more dedicated to your tanking efforts than the Jets. Seriously, he was on my do-not-draft list entering the year, and he’s done nothing to make me feel bad about that decision. Gallman was active for the first time in his rookie season, and his 11 carries and 42 yards rushing were both single-game highs for a Giants running back this year. He added a pair of receptions for eight yards and a touchdown. Gallman will be a popular addition this week in fantasy leagues, and he should be owned in 12-team leagues or larger. He’s not a burner, though, with a 4.60 40-yard dash at the NFL Draft Combine, and his scouting report at NFL.com prior to the draft was a mixed bag, and ditto for his scouting report at Pro Football Focus. The upside isn’t great with Gallman, but he could sneak into the bye-week RB2 and flex mix.

Jets last week vs. Jaguars, this week @ Browns

 
After the Jets inexplicably played Matt Forte more snaps each of the first two weeks of the season, Powell’s emerged as the leader of the RBBC over the last two weeks. Last week, Forte was inactive with a turf toe injury, and his status for this week isn’t known yet. Perhaps his absence will shake snoozing Todd Bowles awake, though. Forte’s the third best back — at best — on the Jets, and Powell erupted for 163 yards on 21 carries including a 75-yard touchdown run that was an odd play where it looked like he probably wasn’t touched down, but Jacksonville’s defenders stopped playing thinking he had been touched down. Even if that fluke play were eliminated from his day, 20 carries for 88 yards — which doesn’t include the positive yards he would have netted on the touchdown run had he been ruled down instead– is a quality effort, especially when it’s backed by 27 yards on four receptions. After Week 2, I advocated cutting Powell in shallow leagues and noted that he should be on a short leash in others. He’s extended the leash and played himself back into being rosterable in shallower leagues, but it’s wise to temper expectations a bit. After all, he did rush for only 37 yards on 15 carries the week before, and a touchdown carry saved that line. The more important reason for tempering expectations, though, is the presence of McGuire. The sixth-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft has carved out a role as a change-of-pace option at least. He rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown while adding two grabs for 38 yards last week, and his carries and rushing yards have increased every week this year. He’s averaging a robust 6.8 yards per carry on 23 carries for 156 yards, and he’s also caught three of four targets for 45 yards. The Jets look like they found a steal, and they might opt to give him more work as the season moves along and they evaluate their young players. McGuire’s not yet worth adding in shallow leagues, but he’s a defensible bench option in 12-team leagues, and he should be rostered in all 14-team leagues or larger and keeper or dynasty formats.


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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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