Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
Total: 47.0
Line: KC by 1.0
It’s quite fun to watch the Chiefs this year, again, something I never thought I’d be saying before the start of the season. Alex Smith is taking shots down the field, Travis Kelce is one of the most entertaining players to watch, and Kareem Hunt continues to impress. Meanwhile, you have the Texans, who started out the year extremely slow, but are now coming off a 57-point performance, which likely has their confidence sky-high. The Chiefs have dealt with their fair share of injuries and most recently lost guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif to a knee injury, which is a blow to an offensive line that had been clearing massive holes for the run game. The Texans are down their top left tackle Duane Brown, who is holding out, as well as their top cornerback Kevin Johnson.
QBs: After getting lit up by Tom Brady in Week 3, the Texans bounced back at home in Week 4, holding the combination of Marcus Mariota and Matt Cassel to just 10/20 passing for 117 yards and no touchdowns. Alex Smith is playing the best football of his life, but he’s been sacked on 11.7 percent of his dropbacks, which is the second-highest rate in the league, while the Texans have sacked opposing quarterbacks on 10.0 percent of their dropbacks over the last three weeks, which is the second-highest mark in that time. Houston also does a good job of limiting opposing quarterback’s attempts, as their opponents are averaging just 27.8 attempts, the lowest in the league. Add it all up and Smith isn’t a great play in this matchup on the road. Consider him a mid-to-low-end QB2 despite his hot streak. Deshaun Watson has looked great against the Patriots and Titans, but those have been two of the worst defenses in football. The Chiefs aren’t the Broncos defense or anything, but they are a competent defense that will challenge Watson. They have to pressure Watson if they want to have a chance in this game, as he’s shown the ability to go through his reads if given time. It’s a different story under pressure, however, as he ranks 21st in QB Rating (57.0) when under pressure and has thrown three interceptions under duress. His rushing floor will always keep him in the QB2 conversation and Week 5 is no different. The Chiefs have allowed 93 rushing yards to the combination of Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins this year. Consider him a QB2 with upside in this matchup. If you have another QB2 that you’re debating, you should probably lean Watson because his ceiling is greater.
RBs: The Redskins were able to keep Kareem Hunt in check last week, though that’s a very loose “in check” because he still totaled more than 100 yards on the ground, but did not score. He still looked fantastic, though the loss of offensive guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif may hurt a little bit. The Texans allowed Leonard Fournette 100 yards on the ground in Week 1, but have not allowed more than 36 yards to a running back since. They’ve also held them in check through the air, which is why no running back has scored more than 5.5 PPR points outside of the Jaguars game. Hunt is still an RB1 for this game, but you may want to dial back expectations for the young phenom. It was the Lamar Miller revival last week, as he reached double-digit fantasy points for the first time this year. Go figure that it came against a Titans defense who’d shut down running backs for the last two years. He’s still a boring play most weeks, as he still hasn’t topped 75 yards rushing since Week 14 of last year, despite averaging 17 carries per game. With that being said, Deshaun Watson helps create lanes for Miller because of his dual-threat ability. Something that often goes overlooked is what a mobile quarterback can do for his running backs. If you were to go and take a look at Alfred Morris with the Redskins under Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins, you’d see he was much better with Griffin under center. The Texans are involving D’Onta Foreman, but Miller is still the lead back, so keep trotting him out as an RB2. The Chiefs have settled in after allowing Mike Gillislee three touchdowns in the opener, and have held the Eagles, Chargers, and Redskins running backs to just 220 yards on the ground with one touchdown, and then just 58 yards receiving among all of them. Foreman has now seen at least 10 touches in three straight games, so look at him as a less-likely-to-score version of Derrick Henry, making him a low-upside RB4 option.
WRs: It hasn’t been a great year for those who were the Tyreek Hill can be a No. 1 wide receiver crowd, as he’s just too reliant on the big play to be a consistent fantasy producer. With that being said, the Texans are prone to big plays, as evidenced by Brandin Cooks‘ breakout performance in Week 3 when he tagged them for 131 yards and two touchdowns. Hill has also played better on the road throughout his short career, though that may be more situational in a small sample size. The turf in Houston sure cannot hurt, though. Play him as a high-upside WR3 option, as you normally would. Outside of Cooks, they have not allowed another wide receiver to reach 70 yards, so Chris Conley is off the table, as usual. He’s also just third in targets among wide receivers on the Chiefs behind Hill and Albert Wilson, who is also not a fantasy option. DeAndre Hopkins killed last week in a great spot and he is in a position to succeed once again this week, though you shouldn’t expect a 10-catch, 107-yard performance like he had last week. Hopkins lines up at LWR or in the slot about 75 percent of the time, which means he’ll avoid Marcus Peters in coverage a majority of the time. Instead, they’ll pick on Terrance Mitchell as other teams have. He’s yet to allow a touchdown, but he has allowed 320 yards in coverage. To give you an idea as to how much that is, we are one-quarter through the season, which means he is on pace to allow 1,280 yards in coverage. There was just one cornerback who allowed more than 850 yards in coverage last year. Hopkins is on the WR1 radar. Will Fuller caught two touchdowns last week, so owners will want to play him, but you shouldn’t be one of them. He’ll see a majority of Peters in coverage, a perennial Pro Bowler. Bruce Ellington has actually seen 11 targets over the last two weeks and has the best matchup on paper, but with Hopkins and Fuller back to full health, his target share will disappear.
TEs: It was refreshing to see Travis Kelce get eight targets against the Redskins last week, as he always seems to deliver when targeted. A large part of that is because he’s so efficient with his targets, catching 21 of 26 targets this year for 255 yards and two touchdowns. He’s already halfway to his total of four touchdowns from last year. His closest comp is Rob Gronkowski, who just played the Texans two weeks ago and totaled 8/89/1 against them. Considering how good the Texans have been against running backs, it’s only natural to think that more passes flow through to Kelce. You won’t ever bench him in season-long leagues, and I don’t think you should avoid him in DFS this week, either. The Texans have somewhat of a timeshare at tight end between Ryan Griffin and Stephen Anderson, though Griffin is the full-time player. He’s now seen 11 targets over the last two weeks, so he’s someone to pay attention to, but the Chiefs aren’t a team to stream tight ends against.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Total: N/A
Line: MIN by 3.0
The time has come for the Bears to start Mitch Trubisky just four weeks into the NFL season, on Monday night, against the uber-talented Vikings defense. It’s not an ideal spot for him, but the Bears have already seen enough of the Mike Glennon experiment. The Vikings may be without Sam Bradford once again, as we’ve seen no positive reports about his return. Division games are often close, but the Vikings have allowed just one team to hit 20 points this year and that was the Steelers in Pittsburgh where they scored 26 points. The Bears will also be without their top two linebackers, as Jerrell Freeman is on I.R. and Danny Trevathan is going to be serving his one-game suspension for his hit on Davante Adams last Thursday night.
QBs: We have to approach this game as if Case Keenum is starting for the Vikings because we have no reason not to. As mentioned here in The Primer last week, you never wanted to trust Keenum after one good game against a banged-up Bucs defense. We saw him complete just over 50 percent of his passes against the Lions last week, though he did hit 7.3 yards per attempt, which is solid considering the low completion rate. The Bears defense has played better at home the last year and a half, allowing just over 14 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, where they have allowed over 20 fantasy points per game on the road. The lack of pass-rush for the Bears should still give him time to find Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to provide QB2 numbers. It’s going to be difficult to project Mitch Trubisky because we have no idea how the Bears and John Fox will use him. Will they go with a run-heavy approach or will they run a lot of play-action and roll him out on bootlegs? The Vikings are good enough where you should take the “wait and see” approach with Trubisky, as they have played Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston, and Matthew Stafford over the first four weeks, yet have allowed just 268 passing yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game. If you can help it, give Trubisky a week to get acclimated.
RBs: Now without Dalvin Cook, it’ll be interesting to see how they distribute the carries between Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon, though it won’t remain consistent from week-to-week. This is likely going to come down to the game-script of each game and this one should favor Murray. The Bears opponents have totaled 106 touches through four games, or 26.5 touches per game. Dividing that up between Murray and McKinnon is likely to go somewhere in the range of Murray 16, McKinnon 10, with Murray getting the goal-line work. The Bears have allowed a rushing touchdown in every game this season, making Murray a solid bet as an RB3 this week. Teams haven’t had to throw to their running backs often against the Bears and Keenum has only targeted McKinnon just four times over the last two weeks, making him just a desperation flex play, though you can likely do better. Jordan Howard didn’t show any ill-effects of his shoulder injury against the Packers, though he did what he always does, and dropped another pass. His lack of versatility in the passing game is going to hurt his playing time at some point, especially when Tarik Cohen is waiting in the wings. Howard is still going to get 15-plus carries in games that aren’t blowouts and this game should at least remain competitive. He should have more scoring chances under Trubisky, and don’t forget what Howard did against the Vikings last year… In the two games they played, he totaled 26/153/1 in the first game and then 23/135/0 in the second game. You have to consider him a low-end RB1 with all these positives surrounding him and scarcity of workhorses at the running back position. Cohen was inexcusably not involved very much against the Packers last week totaling just 10 touches. He’s a playmaker on a team that lacks a difference-maker at the wide receiver position. You can never fully trust John Fox to do the logical thing, but Cohen needs to remain in lineups as a flex option who can go off at any point.
WRs: Stefon Diggs has gotten back on track over with Case Keenum over the last two weeks, seeing 18 targets and hauling in 13 of them for 271 yards and two touchdowns. The matchups were both solid, as is the matchup against the Bears this week. Kyle Fuller has found his way back into the starting lineup after missing the 2016 season because the Bears chose to go away from him. He’s been solid enough, though not great. A route runner like Diggs can give him fits because Fuller lacks elite athleticism. He’s done well with bigger wide receivers in coverage because he has solid size, but Diggs isn’t one who will go over you. Diggs should be considered a high-end WR2 with Keenum under center, but understand that there are some risks. Adam Thielen will matchup with Bryce Callahan in the slot, which is the toughest matchup among wide receivers. Through four weeks, the slot receivers against the Bears have included Mohamed Sanu 6/47/0, Adam Humphries 2/18/0, JuJu Smith-Schuster 2/39/0, and Randall Cobb 4/44/1. Thielen is just a WR3 this week and not one who you should expect too much production out of. You need to pay attention to who Trubisky targets in the passing game this week, as rookies are often impressionable and develop a relationship with one of their pass-catchers early-on. Kendall Wright is the only one who would start on another NFL team, so he’d be the one I’d lean towards. The Vikings have Xavier Rhodes on the perimeter, so you’ll want to avoid Deonte Thompson, Markus Wheaton, or Josh Bellamy (not that you wouldn’t anyway). Wright himself is in the WR4 conversation as someone who you can play in a pinch, but I won’t pretend it some great matchup to target – it’s not.
TEs: Who would have thought that targets would be an issue for Kyle Rudolph after he led the position with 132 targets in 2016? Even crazier, is that once Norv Turner left and Pat Shurmer took over, Rudolph was targeted even more. The emergence of Adam Thielen likely has a big role in that, but to be 20th among tight ends with 15 targets? Even Jermaine Gresham has seen more than that and he’s missed a game. His usage needs to go up and the Bears without two linebackers makes a lot of sense. Against the Bears in Week 17 last year, Rudolph destroyed them for 11 catches, 117 yards, and a touchdown. That was obviously with Bradford under center, but Rudolph should match up well with them once again. Consider him a low-end TE1 that should get back on the radar after a slow start. The Bears are giving Zach Miller the lion share of snaps at the tight end position and he’s running the most routes, so he’s worth consideration. The Vikings have allowed 213 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends this year, and considering the Bears lack of options at wide receiver, Miller could turn into Trubisky’s safety blanket. He belongs in the high-end TE2 conversation.
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 54.0
Line: NE by 5.0
Whew, what a line this one is. Each team now has two wins (though the Patriots have played an extra game), but this game will be played in Tampa Bay and the Bucs are coming off a phenomenal offensive performance against the Giants defense. Meanwhile, the Patriots have now allowed 32.0 points per game, just one year after allowing a league-low 16.4 points per game. They aren’t pressuring the quarterback and it’s leading to a lot of points, hence the high total on this Thursday night game. The Patriots are relatively healthy coming into this game, while the Bucs are likely down their top two linebackers (Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander), and top safety T.J. Ward. They do, however, get back Doug Martin this game.
QBs: Coming off a loss, the Patriots will want to get off to a good start in this game, and let’s be honest, Tom Brady is straight money in primetime games. The Bucs secondary has been abused by both Mike Glennon and Case Keenum, who both threw for 300-plus yards and combined for four passing touchdowns. Eli Manning even somehow managed to throw for 288 yards and two scores last week, despite his lackluster offensive line. Brady will look to find Brandin Cooks similar to the way the Vikings used Stefon Diggs, though it hurts a bit that Brent Grimes is back in the lineup. The reason Brady will carve them up is due to the lack of pressure the Bucs are bringing to opposing quarterbacks. Their sack percentage of just 0.78 percent is the lowest in the NFL and it’s not even close (next is the Dolphins at 3.74 percent). Brady was continually pressured against the Panthers, but he won’t be in this game. He’s a must-start, as usual. Jameis Winston looked phenomenal against a tough Giants defense that hadn’t allowed a quarterback to throw three touchdowns since way back in 2015. Similar to Brady, Winston should have time to throw. Through three games, Winston has been sacked just five times and the Patriots are not generating a pass-rush. The lone issue with fully trusting Winston as an elite play this week is due to the fact that the Patriots will roll coverage over to Mike Evans‘ side of the field, essentially double-teaming him, taking away Winston’s safety net. Still, the matchup is good enough to consider him a QB1 against a Patriots defense that’s allowed every quarterback to throw for 300-plus yards, including Alex Smith, Deshaun Watson, and Cam Newton.
RBs: If you’re wondering whether or not to have Mike Gillislee in lineups, don’t. He should be in the high-end RB2 conversation this week with the highest total on the board. Sure, he’s been mediocre on the stat sheet over the last few weeks, but there are going to be plenty of scoring opportunities this week and we know he gets the goal-line work. The Bucs missing two linebackers is huge, as is safety T.J. Ward, should he miss another game. There just isn’t a way that I see the Bucs slowing down the Patriots offense. James White has been a solid PPR option, but has still yet to find the end zone through four weeks. His vital signs are good, as he’s played over 50 percent of the snaps, including a season-high 61.4 percent last week. The Bucs did allow Tarik Cohen and Dalvin Cook 55-plus receiving yards in two of their three games this year and then allowed Wayne Gallman to score his first touchdown on a reception last week. White is a rock-solid RB3 in PPR formats, while he’s more of a boom-or-bust RB3 in standard formats. Dion Lewis played just 14 snaps last week, so he’s just a DFS tournament option. It’ll be interesting to see how the Bucs plan to use Doug Martin fresh off his three-game suspension, though it would be a shock if he didn’t return to his workhorse role. Outside of Kareem Hunt, the Patriots haven’t allowed a team more than 85 rushing yards or a rushing touchdown, which is similar to the way they were against running backs last year, allowing a ton of receiving yardage instead. Martin should be played in what seems to be a high-scoring game, but he does come with some risk, so consider him an upside flex play in his first week back. Jacquizz Rodgers is back to a handcuff role and should be off fantasy radars, while Charles Sims has only seen five targets in three games with Martin off the field. Despite the great matchup for pass-catching backs, you cannot play Sims here.
WRs: There are plenty of fantasy owners mad at Brandin Cooks after he bombed against the Panthers, making it three of four games where he’s disappointed. When Brady doesn’t have time, they aren’t going to connect on the targets that Cooks is getting. According to NFL’s NextGenStats, Cooks is being targeted an average of 19.2 yards down the field, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. Knowing that Brady will have time to throw in this matchup and that cornerback Brent Grimes ran an unofficial 4.57 forty-yard-dash at the combine, you’ll want to put Cooks back into your lineup as a high-end WR2 with big potential. Chris Hogan has to slow down at some point. I mean, he’s not going to score 16 touchdowns this year, the number he is on pace for. His 26 targets are a team-high at wide receiver, but Danny Amendola back on the field hurts his target upside, as they both operate underneath in this offense, though Hogan can also go downfield. Don’t shy away from starting Hogan as a WR3, but know that regression is coming. Amendola has a solid matchup with Robert McClain in the slot, but you have to wonder how many times Brady will go that route with time in the pocket. He should be considered a WR4/5 in this contest. As mentioned above, Mike Evans will see coverage rolled his way, which is unfortunate because Winston is willing to throw it up to him in any one-on-one situation. He’s never going to find your bench, but the Patriots have done a fine job with opposing No. 1 receivers under Bill Belichick’s time with the team. Lower your expectations for Evans this week, but also note that it’ll be interesting to see how the Patriots handle DeSean Jackson, who can blow the top off the defense. If they don’t shade a safety towards Evans, he’ll eat all day, though I doubt Belichick allows that to happen. Instead, this is a week to get excited about Jackson, who should be in lineups as a WR3. He’s always got massive upside, but in a game where it should go back and forth, Jackson legitimately has WR1 potential this week. Adam Humphries has scored 12.8 and 13.0 PPR points over the last two weeks on 17 targets, so he’s definitely in the discussion for someone you can use if you have bye week issues. The Patriots have covered the slot well to this point, but they’ve also not had to worry about the Evans/Jackson combo terrorizing their secondary. Consider Humphries a WR4 in PPR formats for this game.
TEs: It’s funny that we consider four catches for 80 yards a “down week” for Rob Gronkowski, but he’s created a standard that when he’s on the field, he should score. The Bucs are coming off a game in which they allowed the athletic rookie Evan Engram go for six catches and 62 yards while David and Alexander were on the shelf. The Bucs simply do not have an answer for Gronkowski and it could be a game similar to the one Greg Olsen had against them last year where he posted nine catches for 181 yards. He’s easily the top tight end play on the board. Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard continue to split snaps and most would be surprised to know that Howard has out-snapped Brate 122-99, though Brate is still the go-to guy in the passing game with 13 targets to Howard’s eight. Far from the Patriots concerns, Brate presents another game with high-end TE2 value. In games where the tight end wasn’t the primary focus, Coby Fleener posted 33 yards and a touchdown, while Ryan Griffin posted 61 yards and a touchdown. It could be either of them on any given week, but Brate is the one seeing the targets, so he’s the one to bet on.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
