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FanDuel NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 12

FanDuel NFL GPP Lineup Advice: Week 12

This week’s touted FanDuel lineup is star-studded. However, there’s a cost for loading up on superstars. The cost of that decision is a minimum salary kicker and a couple of sub-$5,000 players with extremely low floors in order to fit under the cap. Additionally, there’s no stack on this team.

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Quarterback

Cam Newton (CAR): $8,000 @ Jets
Newton’s not your average quarterback, and there’s no stack because I’m banking on him continuing his recent run of burning opponents on the ground — as an aside, though, likely returning Greg Olsen would be my preferred stack partner for gamers looking to slightly tweak this roster. Over his last five games, Newton’s averaging 69.2 yards rushing on nine carries per game, and he’s scored a pair of rushing touchdowns in that stretch. The Jets are tied for the third most rushing yards allowed (204) to quarterbacks this year, per Pro-Football-Reference. Gang Green is tied for the 12th most FanDuel points per game allowed to quarterbacks this year, and Football Outsiders (FO) ranks them 21st in pass defense. Newton’s passing ceiling is also elevated by the likely return of the aforementioned Olsen.

Running Back

Todd Gurley (LAR): $8,500 vs. Saints
Gurley was the first player I locked into this lineup. He’s been a workhorse back this year and ranks second in touches (225) and first in yards from scrimmage (1,216), and he’s also atop the leaderboard in combined rushing and receiving touchdowns with 11. Remarkably, he could be in line for more touches with No. 1 receiver Robert Woods out a few weeks. The Rams are 2.5-point favorites in the game with the highest over/under total of the week at 53 points, according to Pinnacle, and his matchup is excellent. FO ranks the Saints just 25th defending the run, and they’ve demonstrated susceptibility to getting gashed on the ground in recent weeks allowing more than 150 yards rushing in three of their last five contests.

Kareem Hunt (KC): $7,700 vs. Bills
The Chiefs embarrassed themselves losing to the Giants on the road last week, and Hunt’s touchdown-less streak extended to seven weeks. Back home, Kansas City is in a prime spot to bounce-back as 10-point favorites against the visiting — and battered of late — Bills. Buffalo’s defense played good football early, but they’ve been a speed bump for opposing backs of late. The Bills have surrendered 638 yards rushing over their last three games, and that number probably would be higher if Nathan Peterman didn’t provide the Chargers short fields early and often in a five-interception start that lasted only one half. Hunt hasn’t kept up the scalding pace he opened up his rookie season on, but he trails only Gurley in yards from scrimmage (1,208). The Bills have allowed the second most FanDuel points per game to running backs this year, and I like Hunt’s odds of halting his touchdown-less streak against a Buffalo defense that’s coughed up the most rushing scores (13) to running backs thus far.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,600 vs. Packers
Brown shined in the Thursday Night Football spotlight in Week 11 spanking the Titans for a 10-144-3 line in Pittsburgh and added to his outstanding season totals. He ranks second in targets (114),  tied for fourth in receiving touchdowns (six), and he leads the way in receptions (70), receiving yards (1,026), receptions per game (7.0), and is the only player averaging more than 100 yards receiving per game at 102.6. He’s a full 11 yards per game receiving ahead of second place. He’s back home again this week — where Ben Roethlisberger is at his best — and primed for another huge effort. FO ranks Green Bay 23rd in pass defense and defending No. 1 receivers, and they’ve yielded the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to receivers. Brown was the second player locked in after Gurley, and there’s no reason to get sticker shock. Gurley, Brown, and Hunt are the foundation pieces I’ll be building all of my GPP rosters around this week.

T.Y. Hilton (IND): $7,500 vs. Titans
Hilton nearly didn’t make the cut in the interest of fleshing out a more balanced roster, but ultimately I talked myself into sacrifices — with the one at tight end standing out as the hardest to swallow by far — in order to add his sky-high ceiling to the mix. As an added bonus, Hilton was held to just one reception for 19 yards on four targets by the Titans just a little over a month ago, and that recent dud against this week’s opponent could depress his ownership a pinch. The 28-year-old has home/road splits that favor playing at home in his career. On the road, Hilton’s averaged 15.88 yards per reception, a 54.7% catch percentage, 4.3 receptions per game, 68.3 yards per game, and scored 15 touchdowns in 43 games. At home, he’s averaged 16.21 yards per reception, a 59.2% catch percentage, 5.0 receptions per game, 81.1 yards per game, and hauled in 18 touchdowns in 45 games. In addition to loving his superior numbers at home, I’m enamored with his matchup. The Titans rank 24th in pass defense at FO, and they’ve allowed the fifth most FanDuel points per game to wideouts.

Dede Westbrook (JAC): $4,900 @ Cardinals
Westbrook made his NFL regular season debut last week. He only caught three balls for 35 yards receiving, but looking a little deeper provides some reason for excitement. The rookie was targeted six times on his 35 offensive snaps played, and PlayerProfiler.com credited him with running a route on 73.3% of Jacksonville’s team pass plays last week. In other words, when he was on the field he was an integral part of the passing attack and didn’t waste many of his snaps on running plays. Allen Hurns is expected to miss another week, so Westbrook should get another week to carve out a role in the passing attack without ceding touches to Hurns. This is an especially good week for him to garner attention from Blake Bortles. As the clear-cut top receiver on the Jags, Marqise Lee is likely in line for shadow coverage from standout corner Patrick Peterson. When Bortles is tasked with throwing the ball this week, his ancillary weapons — such as Westbrook — stand to benefit from Lee getting Peterson’s attention. Speaking of Bortles throwing the ball, the run-heavy Jaguars might be wise to balance things out a bit more this week since FO ranks the Cardinals 18th defending the pass and ninth defending the run. Finally, even with Peterson providing the Cardinals secondary a lock-down corner, they’ve still allowed the seventh most FanDuel points per game to receivers. Using Westbrook is a move that requires a bit of speculation to feel even remotely comfortable with, but you’re also getting last year’s Biletnikoff Award winner at a salary that belies his talent level.

Tight End

Martellus Bennett (NE): $4,700 vs. Dolphins
Bennett is the pick that requires the most squinting to see working out. Having said that, the options at tight end outside of the upper tier are flawed, and the bargain bin below the $5,500 Jared Cook is bereft of talent. Getting back to Bennett, he’s played just 24 offensive snaps in two games with the Patriots, but he’s been targeted on a quarter of his snaps played and turned all six into receptions. The Dolphins are tied for the fourth most touchdown grabs (six) allowed to tight ends this year, have allowed the fifth most FanDuel points per game to them, and rank 23rd defending the position, per FO. The matchup is good, and New England’s implied team over/under total of 32.5 points suggests they should hang a big number. Is a touchdown grab too much to ask for? He did catch seven with the Patriots last year — albeit with Rob Gronkowski missing time and no Brandin Cooks in the mix. Also, there is the potential for lots of garbage time for the reserves with the Patriots serving as 17-point favorites. The case for using Bennett is about as flimsy as it gets based on his own merit, but it’s important to remember the reason for using him is to load up on the crazy-high ceilings of a Newton/Gurley/Hunt/Brown/Hilton core.

Kicker

Giorgio Tavecchio (OAK): $4,500 vs. Broncos
Oakland’s rookie kicker has made 12 of 14 field-goal attempts (53-yard long and his only miss coming on one of his four 50-plus yard attempts) and 22 of 23 point-after attempts. The Raiders have an implied team over/under total of 24.25 points, and they’re five-point favorites. Denver’s tied for the 18th most field-goal attempts (19) against them this year, and they’ve had the most point-after attempts attempted against them, too.

Defense/Special Teams

Falcons (ATL): $4,600 vs. Buccaneers
The Falcons are 10-point favorites at home, and Tampa Bay’s implied team over/under total is only 19.5 points. As double-digit point favorites, Atlanta’s defense should be in a great position to pin back their ears, rush the passer, and add to their sack total of 29 that’s tied for the fourth-most in the NFL this season. Sacks equal fantasy points and pressure is a good way to force turnovers, and those would equal even more fantasy points. The Falcons defense is a bargain this week.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.

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