Happy Thanksgiving! It’s fitting that this uniquely American holiday is celebrated with football, the most uniquely American sport. It makes for an interesting and odd week of NFL DFS, with the three Thursday games being put on their own tiny slate in addition to the standard Sunday slate.
This week, I’m giving one play for the Thursday slate and one for the Sunday slate at each position. The limited options on the three-game slate require a slightly different concept of value; we just don’t have enough choices to find extreme values, but there are still places to save (Statistics via Pro-Football-Reference).
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Quarterback
Thursday
Case Keenum (MIN): $7,500 @ DET
Quarterback is the most limited position for value on the Thursday slate. The only player without question marks is Kirk Cousins against the woeful Giants defense, but he is understandably $8,800. Case Keenum doesn’t have the same slam-dunk matchup as Cousins, but he has a lot going in his favor.
He’s been impressive all year, with the Vikings losing only one game when he started under center. He’s thrown only five interceptions all year and taken only five sacks. Keenum hasn’t always delivered big fantasy performances, but he is getting opportunities, averaging 35 pass attempts per game (10th-most, minimum seven games started).
He’s thrown for multiple touchdowns in two of the last three games. He’s developed quite a rapport with star receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs.
Detroit is not an exciting matchup for quarterbacks, but not an overly daunting one either. They’ve allowed just the 20th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, but a lot of that has to do with their 11 interceptions, tied for seventh-most. As I mentioned, Keenum has been excellent at taking care of the football, which should mitigate Detroit’s strength.
They have amassed only 21 sacks in 10 games (20th) and defensive end Ziggy Ansah is questionable, further weakening their pass rush. Overall, it’s a matchup Keenum, and the Vikings can exploit.
Sunday
Matt Moore (MIA): $6,000 @ NE
At the time of writing, Jay Cutler is still in the concussion protocol. I can’t understand Adam Gase’s reluctance to bench Cutler. Matt Moore has been better in almost every single way. I hope we get to see Moore start against the Patriots, both for fantasy purposes and because he’s the better choice.
I’m not claiming he’s a fantastic quarterback, but the numbers show he’s a competent one. Because the sample from 2017 is so small (93 attempts), I’ve combined it with last year’s sample (87 attempts) to get a more accurate picture – and Moore looks good. His 7.59 yards per attempt would rank 10th this season among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts.
He’s got an 11:6 TD:INT ratio (Cutler’s, for reference, is 13:9). His 61% completion rate is on the low side, but not that bad; it would rank him just below Jared Goff and a little above Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, and Carson Wentz.
We’ve all heard about the struggles of the Patriots defense this season, especially against the pass. At a glance, they seem to be vastly improved over the last three games, but in one they faced Brock Osweiler. Another was against the ghost of Derek Carr, who has taken a significant step back from his breakout season last year in almost every regard. The last was a bad game from Philip Rivers.
I’m not convinced. Even including the last three games, for the season they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They still have a substantial lead for most passing yards allowed.
They’ve sacked opponents only 17 times in 10 games, sixth-fewest. If Moore gets the start, he’ll be treated to a vulnerable Patriots defense for the minimum salary.
Running Back
Thursday
Jerick McKinnon (MIN): $6,200 @ DET
It may feel like Latavius Murray has overtaken Jerick McKinnon in the Minnesota backfield; it certainly did to me. Luckily, I had our Snap Count Analysis tool to set it straight. While it’s true that Murray’s touches have increased over the last five games, it hasn’t taken much away from McKinnon.
Murray’s three touchdowns in two games, plus a little recency bias, are what had colored my perception. But over the last four games, McKinnon has handled 57% of snaps compared to just 43% for Murray. Their touches are almost equal, with McKinnon slightly ahead.
He also has a slight advantage with his heavy usage in the passing game, with a peak of 10 targets against the Browns three weeks ago. McKinnon’s salary is far too low for someone who has handled 17, 24, 12, and 21 touches in the last four games, respectively.
Detroit is a friendly matchup for running backs. They’ve given up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position. The 12 rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed is second only to the Bills (16). Opposing running backs have averaged 6.1 receptions and 47.3 yards receiving per game.
McKinnon has a stranglehold on the receiving back role, with Latavius Murray only receiving eight targets all season. He should have a lot of opportunity against Detroit.
Sunday
Duke Johnson (CLE): $5,500 @ CIN
FanDuel seems to have a bias against receiving backs. It makes some sense since FanDuel only awards a half point per reception. But Duke Johnson’s salary has never gone north of $6,100 despite the fact he’s hit double digits in FanDuel points in six of 10 games.
He does have to split his touches with Isaiah Crowell, which is similar to McKinnon’s situation with Murray. Johnson also holds a slight advantage in snaps, averaging 36.6 to Crowell’s 34.7.
Against running backs, the Bengals are in the middle of the pack, allowing the 15th-most fantasy points. They’ve allowed only six rushing touchdowns, but the sixth-most rushing yards (1,224). That’s a bit too lucky. In 2016, running backs averaged one touchdown for every 131.5 yards rushing, which means we would expect the Bengals to have given up around nine touchdowns.
They’ve had their struggles against receiving backs, allowing an average of 6.3 receptions and 45.5 receiving yards. Duke Johnson himself recorded a 10-target nine-catch game against the Bengals at the beginning of October, in which he racked up 47 yards receiving. He’s a top-rated running back in our value tool.
Wide Receiver
Thursday
Jamison Crowder (WAS): $6,300 vs. NYG
Jordan Reed has already been ruled out. In the three games where Jamison Crowder has played since Reed’s early exit in Week 8, Crowder has seen 13, 11, and eight targets respectively.
Reed sees a lot of his action in the middle of the field, and his absence has let Crowder, who runs a majority of his routes out of the slot, take over those targets. Vernon Davis has played well in Reed’s place, but that hasn’t stopped Crowder from producing.
The Giants struggle to can’t defend the middle of the field. They get gutted by tight ends and slot receivers every week. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the slot corner, has allowed a 141.7 passer rating when targeted. That’s one of the worst marks in the league.
In fact, passer rating only goes as high as 158.3. FanDuel’s pricing algorithm doesn’t seem to have noticed any of this. He comes in as the third-most undervalued receiver for the week in our tool.
Crowder’s price has come up a bit in the last few weeks, but nothing like it should have for his opportunity and production. That’s ok – I’ll take it.
Sunday
Kenny Stills (MIA): $5,600 @ NE
It’s weird to say this, but my recommendation of Kenny Stills is dependent on Miami’s backup quarterback starting. I discussed above what Matt Moore brings to the table, but his single biggest impact may be on Kenny Stills. Three of the five games in which Stills has gotten eight or more targets have come when Moore has played (starting or in relief of Cutler).
Nearly 35% of Stills’ targets for the season have come in the eight quarters Moore has been under center. 22 of Moore’s 93 pass attempts this season have targeted Stills – a massive 23.6%. Cutler has targeted him on only 15.1% of throws.
I think my point is pretty clear – Moore loves Stills; Cutler does not. Stills also loves Moore. 330 of Stills’ 588 receiving yards have come in Moore’s three games (56.1%) and three of his five touchdowns.
I broke down my feelings about the Patriots defense in the section on Matt Moore above, but the short version is I think they’re still bad. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Moore and Stills should feast.
Tight End
Thursday
Vernon Davis (WAS): $6,400 vs. NYG
Vernon Davis is the only player to benefit more from the absence of Jordan Reed than Jamison Crowder. Davis has a very modest role when Reed is active; he’s exceeded four targets only once. But in the three games, Reed has missed entirely, he’s received nine, 11, and six targets, respectively, and he’s put up solid fantasy scores in spite of not reaching the end zone.
He’s also a complete athletic freak, who set the standard for athleticism in a tight end at the combine. Granted, that was 11 years ago, but you wouldn’t know it watching him play.
He’s got more than enough left in the tank for the New York Giants defense. Honestly, I have no words for how awful they’ve been against tight ends. The fewest FanDuel points per game they’ve allowed to their opponent’s tight ends is 15.8.
Last week, the Chiefs were the first team whose tight ends failed to find the end zone against the Giants. Of course, the Chiefs failed to get in the end zone at all, and Travis Kelce still posted an eight-catch, 109-yard game on 14 targets.
Needless to say, the Giants have surrendered the most fantasy points to tight ends. However, it is worth saying that they are number one by a large margin (1.5 points per game). Davis stretches the definition of value a little. He’s technically the second-most expensive tight end, but he’s still the best value for the price relative to the other available tight ends on Thursday.
Sunday
Delanie Walker (TEN): $5,900 @ IND
I feel bad for the Colts defense. They’ve allowed the third-most passing yards (2745), the most touchdowns (31), the most points (280), and their -101 point differential is second only to the Browns.
It’s a miracle they’ve won three games. They are “only” tied for seventh-most fantasy points given up to tight ends, which is the worst thing I can say about this matchup.
It sets up well for Delanie Walker, whose salary is still hanging around below $6,000, despite his large role in the Titans’ offense. Walker’s 7.2 targets per game ranks fourth among tight ends and over the last five games, that mark has crept up to 8.2. His fantasy production hasn’t matched that yet, which is keeping his salary down.
Despite recording 49 receptions and 550 yards in 10 games, Walker has yet to find the end zone. A matchup with the team that allows the most touchdowns seems like just the get-right spot Delanie Walker needs.
Kicker
Thursday
Nick Rose (WAS): $4,700 vs. NYG
I’ll forgive you if you’ve never heard of Nick Rose. With injuries and poor performance from kickers around the league, it feels like there’s a new guy in the mix every week. Rose isn’t quite that new, but he only started kicking for Washington in mid-November. Since then, he’s made eight of nine field goal attempts with a long of 55 yards, and he’s missed just one extra point.
Washington is expected to score the most points on Thursday against the sad defense of the Giants, which means a lot of opportunities for Rose to score fantasy points. The Giants are tenth in fantasy points allowed to kickers.
Sunday
Blair Walsh (SEA): $4,800 @ SF
It’s been an inconsistent season for Blair Walsh, but that hasn’t made the Seahawks stop trusting him. Since a disastrous game against Washington, in which he missed all three field goal attempts, Walsh has made five of the six opportunities they’ve given him and been perfect on extra points.
San Francisco allows the sixth-most fantasy points to kickers, and their defense is bound to struggle against a Seahawks offense that seems to be figuring it out after their inconsistent start to the season (including a sad early game against the 49ers). They should be able to score a lot more than the 12 points they managed the first time around.
D/ST
Thursday
Los Angeles Chargers: $4,200 @ DAL
We all knew the absence of Ezekiel Elliott would bring significant changes to the Cowboys offense. But I, at least, did not think it would be anything like this. In the two games since his suspension began, the Cowboys have scored just one touchdown and 16 total points.
They’ve recorded just 458 total yards. It’s not all Zeke’s fault, either. They’ve turned the ball over six times in the last two games, after turning it over eight times in the previous eight games. Whatever combination of factors it is, they seem helpless on offense.
The presumed return of their starting left tackle, Tyron Smith, would help them keep Dak Prescott upright after taking 12 sacks in the past two games. However, Smith is still a game-time decision and their right tackle, La’el Collins, popped up on the injury report midweek and seems unlikely to play (also a game-time decision).
Regardless of who plays, the elite pass rushing duo of Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa will be a challenge for them. With the Cowboys offense as a whole sputtering, I think the Chargers D/ST has another opportunity for a big game this week.
Sunday
Oakland Raiders: $4,400 vs. DEN
If you play the Raiders D/ST, you might want to skip watching the game. This is a contest of who is worse, instead of who is better. The Raiders defense is terrible. The Broncos offense is terrible. The Raiders have the fewest sacks and zero interceptions this season. The Broncos trail only the Browns in fantasy points allowed to D/ST. The Raiders have allowed the highest completion percentage and highest passer rating – each by a significant margin. The Broncos are starting Paxton Lynch, a guy who couldn’t beat Trevor Siemian or Brock Osweiler for the starting job.
Lynch had an opportunity to show something last season, landing the start for two games. It wasn’t the worst performance ever (why hello, Nathan Peterman), but he was inaccurate, didn’t throw for many yards, took a lot of sacks, and didn’t do anything special with his legs to help compensate. So, pretty bad. This game seems likely to be a comedy of errors all around, and that skews in favor of defenses. The Oakland Raiders D/ST is cheap enough for the risk, but be prepared to hold your breath for half the game.
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Steve Repsold is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Steve, follow him @SteveRepsold.
