Week 14 Primer: Analyzing All 16 Games (Fantasy Football)

Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 39.0
Line: JAX by 3.0

QBs
Russell Wilson: How bad is this? Wilson is the hottest quarterback in football, but is about to go against the league’s best defense in the first week of the playoffs, and on the road nonetheless. The Jaguars have been the untouchable defense this year, allowing just one top-15 performance to a quarterback, which was Blaine Gabbert (of all people) two weeks ago. There’s been just one quarterback to throw for more than 241 yards against them, and that was Ben Roethlisberger when he threw the ball 55 times. There’s been just two quarterbacks who’ve thrown multiple touchdowns, though both of them came in the last four games. Wilson can add fantasy points in ways that most quarterbacks can’t, as he creates time with his legs and has even rushed for two touchdowns in the last three weeks. It’s definitely a worrisome matchup, but unless you own a quarterback who I said is a must-play QB1, Wilson has to be in your lineup, just don’t expect him to carry you through to the fantasy semi-finals. He’s someone to avoid in DFS this week because there will still be higher ownership, despite the tough matchup. He’s been so hot that people will play him, thinking they’re being contrarian.

Blake Bortles: He’s been throwing the ball more than we expected him to, as the run-game hasn’t been nearly as dominant as it was to start the year. He’s still thrown just one or less touchdowns in eight of his last nine games. His fantasy numbers have remained somewhat stable over the last two months, as he’s averaging over 25 yards per game on the ground, which is near another touchdown with his legs. The Seahawks defense has looked really good the last few weeks despite the losses of Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor, holding Carson Wentz and the combination of C.J. Beathard/Jimmy Garoppolo to just two touchdowns combined on a massive 85 pass attempts. Don’t forget that last week’s game where he succeeded was against the Colts, guys. He’s just a low-end QB2 for this game and not one that I would use in standard leagues.

RBs
Mike Davis and J.D. McKissic: I haven’t had much interest in Seahawks running backs this year, but I must admit that Davis has caught my eye over his last two games. There is trust with him and Pete Carroll, which means you should consider him at the very least. This matchup isn’t a good one, as the Jaguars have been a shut-down unit ever since they added Marcel Darius to the defensive front, allowing just 325 yards on 96 carries (3.39 YPC) and one touchdown over their last five games with him. Because of that, Davis isn’t anything more than an RB3 in this game. McKissic is the one who’ll handle the passing-downs, which is coveted because of how good their perimeter cornerbacks are. There have been nine running backs who’ve totaled at least four receptions against them, a rather high number. Knowing that McKissic hasn’t seen more than nine touches in all but one game, it’s hard to say that he’s anything more than a RB4 in PPR formats, while he’s not a preferred option in standard leagues. You can take a shot in DFS tournaments with either of them as low-owned options, though Davis would be the one I’d lean towards with more touchdown upside. Just know that they aren’t great options by any means. The implied team total sits at just 18 for the Seahawks, which is quite low.

Leonard Fournette: If you’re wondering why Fournette’s numbers are down, it’s because teams have been willing to load the box on nearly 60 percent of his carries over the last month, daring them to have Bortles beat them. To give you a comparison, the NFL average of stacked boxes is just under 30 percent. Still, Fournette has managed to post at least 13.8 PPR points in two of the last three games. The Seahawks should have taken a big step back against the run with the loss of Chancellor, but they really haven’t, allowing just 127 yards on 37 carries (3.43 YPC) with no touchdowns to the combination of 49ers and Eagles running backs. You’re still going to play him as an RB1 against them, though he’s not likely to win you a week, as there’s been just one running back to finish with 20 PPR points against them, and that was Lamar Miller back in Week 8. He’s always in play for tournaments, as his carry total is so high, as is his big-play potential. He’s not recommended for cash lineups, however.

WRs
Doug Baldwin: Many see the Jaguars on the schedule and run the other way, though Baldwin is a bit of an exception because he plays in the slot about 75 percent of the time, which is away from both Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, two of the best cornerbacks in the league. Instead, he’ll see Aaron Colvin, a name that hasn’t gotten much attention this year, but he’s been solid in coverage. He’s allowing a rather-high 73 percent catch rate in his coverage, but he’s kept the play in front of him, allowing just 7.2 yards per reception and no touchdowns. Baldwin is among the elite at the position, so this will be a tough test for Colvin. Knowing that Wilson has limited options with Ramsey and Bouye on the outside, look for him to target Baldwin and Graham quite often. He’s a WR2 this week, though I wouldn’t play in him in DFS cash lineups. There’s too many other options who come with less risk. He is, however, in play for tournaments.

Paul Richardson/Tyler Lockett: You really don’t want any part of either of these two against this secondary, as they simply don’t allow fantasy points to the position. There have been just four wide receivers to finish inside the top-30 against them all season long, and three of them saw 11 or more targets. Richardson may snag a touchdown, but even then, he’d likely wind up with 20 yards and a score. The risk in starting him and not scoring is much greater, making him just a low-upside WR5 this week, while Lockett is just a WR6.

Marqise Lee: Outside of his game with Patrick Peterson, Lee has now totaled at least nine targets in each of his last four games. He’s also finished with at least 72 yards or a touchdown in five of his last seven games. He’s the No. 1 receiver in this offense, though it’s not looking like a smash spot against Seahawks or anything. They’ve played three games without Richard Sherman and have held Julio Jones to 5/71/0, Marquise Goodwin to 4/78/0, and Alshon Jeffery to 4/61/0 in those games. Because of that, Lee’s expectations should be dialed back to the WR3 area for this game. He’s not someone I’d actively target in DFS, either.

Dede Westbrook: He’s now seen a rather-high 19 targets over the last two weeks, though it helped that Lee was covered by Patrick Peterson in Week 12, allowing him to get 10 targets. The odd part about Westbrook is that he hasn’t hit a long pass yet, as his longest catch went for 28 yards. That means there’s still room for growth with him, though the concern would be Allen Hurns coming back to take some of that volume. Still, getting the targets he has, he’s in the WR4 conversation who comes with plenty of risk, but also plenty of upside if he and Bortles can connect on the long-ball. He has tournament appeal in DFS as someone who can return value with one big play.

Keelan Cole: There cannot be three relevant fantasy receivers on this team, as Bortles doesn’t consistently throw for 300 yards or multiple touchdowns, so Cole is likely the odd man out, especially when Hurns returns to the slot. If Hurns is out, Cole remains in the fantasy conversation as someone who can benefit from Fournette’s stacked boxes. He’s just a last-ditch WR5, but one who has totaled at least 47 yards in four of the last six games.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: He continued his scoring bonanza last week, and now has nine touchdowns over his last eight games. By comparison, there is no other tight end with more than seven touchdowns on the entire season, and there are just two wide receivers who have matched that total (Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins). Just like every other position, the Jaguars have been a tough cookie to crack, allowing just two top-10 performances to tight ends this year. There have been just two tight ends with more than five targets, though, a number that Graham often hits. His yardage has been trending in the wrong direction and has now been below 35 yards in three of his last four games. The competition has been somewhat weak against them this year, so I wouldn’t consider benching him in season-long leagues or anything. He’s not a recommended DFS cash-game play, but knowing he has two-touchdown upside, he’s always in play for tournaments.

Marcedes Lewis: He’s now totaled at least 26 yards in five of the last six games, and has seen at least five targets in three of his last five games. That’s my attempt to make Lewis sound better than the idea of actually playing him. When you have Bortles throwing one or less touchdowns in all but two games, it’s going to be tough to find a place for Lewis. The Seahawks have allowed just four tight end touchdowns on the year, so it’s not likely that this is a week he gets one. In fact, quarterbacks have just a 78.4 QB Rating when targeting tight ends against the Seahawks, the fourth-worst mark in the league. You can find a better streamer.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 48.5
Line: LAR by 2.0

QBs
Carson Wentz: Last week was the first time Wentz finished outside the top-10 since Week 4, and it’s not like he was that far out, as he finished as the QB11 on the week with his 348 yards and one touchdown. He did throw his second-highest amount of pass attempts in that game (45), which did help with some of the regression that we’ve been expecting. Despite opponents facing an uphill battle most of the time, the Rams have allowed just two top-12 performances to quarterbacks all season, and none since Week 4. It’s because the Rams have controlled the ball and the clock, as no quarterback has thrown more than 38 passes against them. They have allowed just eight passing touchdowns over their last eight games, making it another rough one for Wentz. This game is on the road as well, but the total is rather-high, and oddsmakers feel like the game will remain competitive throughout. Wentz should be considered a decent QB1 who has been as consistent as they come. The only concern is that the Eagles should be able to run the ball all day on the Rams defense, which would limit his upside.

Jared Goff: It was really weird going through Goff’s game logs and noticing that he’s finished better than the QB10 just twice all season and those games came back-to-back against the Texans and Giants in Weeks 9 and 10. The Eagles were a giving unit to start the year, but have really turned things around over the last five games, holding four quarterbacks to less than 11 fantasy points, with the only exception being Russell Wilson last week. Knowing that and the fact that he’ll be without Robert Woods again worries me as a fantasy owner. He’s still in the high-end QB2 territory because of how consistent he’s been, but it’s hard to see him finding his way into QB1 numbers this week with how well the Eagles secondary is playing, though it does help that the Eagles will be traveling across the country to play this game.

RBs
LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi, and Corey Clement: When Ajayi was traded to the Eagles, I had my concerns about his workload, but never did I think they’d trade for him in order to give him 29 carries over his first four games with the team. Without breaking a long play, he’s going to let you down, and that’s not going to change under Doug Pederson. Knowing that makes it tough to completely trust him, but the Rams are about as good of a matchup as you can ask for as a running back. They’ve allowed at least 87 rushing yards to one running back in each of their last three games, including four rushing touchdowns. They have allowed a league-high seven 20-point PPR performances to running backs, though it’s really been feast or famine. After those 20-point backs, there’ve been just two others to reach 10 PPR points, so you really have to assume that one guy gets to succeed. It’s hard not to say Ajayi after he led the team in carries in Week 13 and was even involved in the passing game, getting four targets. He’s still a risky high-end RB3, though the upside is there. Blount could very well be the one who gets there, but seeing that he’s not involved in the passing game hurts his projection. He’s a touchdown-dependent RB4 in this game. I wouldn’t use Clement in fantasy leagues. Ajayi makes for the best tournament play this week in DFS, though none are to be used in cash.

Todd Gurley: After a semi-tough battle with the Cardinals, Gurley gets one of his toughest opponents to date. The Eagles are one of the best run defenses in the league, having allowed just 549 rushing yards on the season. For those of you counting at home, that’s less than 50 yards per game. No other team has allowed less than 822 yards. Gurley hasn’t topped 77 yards on the ground since back in Week 7, so it’s unlikely he finds much room on the ground. He’s now seen seven targets in three of his last four games, which is going to prop up his value immensely, as the Eagles have allowed 499 yards through the air, including five touchdowns, the second-most in the league. You’re playing him in season-long leagues, but it’s not one to attack him in DFS. He’s got tournament appeal due to his receiving ceiling, but I wouldn’t go overweight on him.

WRs
Alshon Jeffery: Go ahead, say it… Jeffery got his big contract and then didn’t perform. Guys, it’s one week. Now I was never the biggest Jeffery fan, but he’s been playing well this year. He’s only seen double-digit targets three times this year, but he’s only been under six targets one time. So, he’s essentially guaranteed anywhere from 6-9 targets. Against Trumaine Johnson, that’s going to be tough, as he’s been one of the better cornerbacks against bigger wide receivers. It’s also why they’ve allowed just two top-12 wide receiver performances, and both of them were to slot receivers (Adam Thielen and Larry Fitzgerald). Jeffery still remains in the WR2 conversation, but he’s in the lower end for sure. He’s not someone I’d play in DFS this week.

Nelson Agholor: His matchup is quite better than Jeffery’s, as he’ll match-up with Nickell Robey-Coleman who was just abused by Larry Fitzgerald for 10/98/1. Before that, it was Adam Thielen tagging them for 6/123/1, though a lot of that did come on one long catch and run. Tavarres King and Bruce Ellington were also able to score on them the prior weeks, making Agholor an attractive WR3 this week. It’s hard to say he’s cash-game viable, since we know how low his floor can be, but he’s in play for light tournament usage.

Sammy Watkins: It’s all starting to come together for Watkins and Goff at the right time, as they’ve connected for a touchdown in four of their last five games, after scoring just two in their first seven games. His targets are still a bit concerning, as he’s seen four or less in four of the last five games. It’s impossible to remain as efficient as he’s been, so we’re going to need more targets. Understanding that the Eagles are one of the better run defenses in the league, Goff should throw more passes than usual in this game. Opponents average 38.2 pass attempts against the Eagles, which is the second-highest number in the league. Because of that, wide receivers have totaled 269 targets against the Eagles, the most in the league. Watkins is a high-upside WR3 with Robert Woods still sidelined and one that I’d want to get in a few tournament lineups.

Cooper Kupp: He’s also seen a jump in targets with Woods out, and has become one of the more reliable PPR options, as he now has at least five catches in each of the last four games, though he’s failed to score since back in Week 7. With the Rams expected to pass more in this game, Kupp needs to be in lineups as a high-floor option. The only issue is that Patrick Robinson has manned the slot for the Eagles and has done a pretty good job to this point, allowing just a 54 percent catch rate in coverage, so you need to dial back expectations for Kupp overall, which is why he stays in the WR3 conversation. His price has gone up enough to the point that he’s not a lock in cash-game lineups, and knowing his limited touchdown ceiling, he’s not a great tournament play against Robinson.

Josh Reynolds: If you’re looking for a desperation option on your waiver wire to slot in as a WR5, Reynolds is a solid choice. With Watkins maybe seeing extra attention with a safety and Kupp being covered by Robinson, Reynolds may shock some. He has seen six targets in each of the last two games, so he’s definitely involved. He makes for an interesting low-owned tournament option as well.

TEs
Zach Ertz: There needs to be an alert here stating that Ertz may not play in this game, as he’s currently in the league’s concussion protocol. If he does play, you’re obviously playing him in season-long leagues. The Rams have allowed the sixth-fewest points to tight ends this year, but that doesn’t begin to tell the whole story. The only athletic tight ends they played were Evan Engram (4/70/1), Jimmy Graham (6/37/1), Kyle Rudolph (5/58/0), and Jordan Reed (6/48/0). They are also the only tight ends to see more than three targets against them. If Ertz plays, he’s an elite TE1 and one that I’d be happy to use in DFS.

Gerald Everett: Are we seeing a changing of the guard at tight end for the Rams? Everett saw a season-high four targets in Week 13, while Tyler Higbee saw just one target. Everett is the one who has more of the Evan Engram-feel to him, as he’s built like a big wide receiver. The issue? He’s yet to top 35 percent of the snaps since back in Week 1, making him a Ricky Seals-Jones type, though he’s not getting as many targets. He’s not startable in a tough matchup against the Eagles.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 43.5
Line: PIT by 5.5

QBs
Joe Flacco: Prior to last week’s game, Flacco spouted out that the Ravens offense needed to open things up and that they weren’t going to get far playing the way they were. Someone listened, as Flacco had what was arguably his best game of the season, throwing for a season-high 269 yards and two touchdowns. It was against the struggling Lions, but he didn’t do anything against the terrible Texans the week before, which is an even better matchup for quarterbacks. Maybe there’s something to this. We know the Steelers are going to score points at home against a Jimmy Smith-less Ravens team, so we should see Flacco throw quite a few times this week. His last three games against the Steelers have netted 235/1, 262/1, and 241/1, which is just low-end QB2 territory. Last week was encouraging, but I’d need to see a trend before trusting him outside of 2QB leagues. The Steelers have allowed at least 14.5 fantasy points to each of the last five quarterbacks they’ve played, so he’s not a bad play in those 2QB formats.

Ben Roethlisberger: This game looks better than it did just a week ago, as the Ravens will be down their top cornerback Jimmy Smith, who suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week. Roethlisberger himself is going to be without JuJu Smith-Schuster, who was handed a one-game suspension for his hit on Vontaze Burfict. Still, that’s going to leave a mix of Brandon Carr and Marlon Humphery to handle Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. The Ravens have been a shutdown defense throughout the year, but it’s hard to say how much the loss of Smith will affect them. They lost Smith for a few games last year, and in those games, quarterbacks averaged 251.8 yards and 1.6 touchdowns. Roethlisberger himself played against them in one of those games and totaled 279 yards and three touchdowns, though he did throw two interceptions. To this point, the Ravens have allowed just one top-15 quarterback performance, and it was to Blake Bortles in that London game, but I’m betting that Roethlisberger makes it into QB1 territory. He makes for a solid tournament play, but there’s better cash-game options.

RBs
Alex Collins, Danny Woodhead, and Javorius Allen: Another timeshare? Not so fast, as Collins has earned what appears to be the workhorse role, totaling 59 touches over the last three weeks, while Woodhead and Allen have fought for the scraps, totaling 19 and 18 touches, respectively. Collins has even been getting more receptions than ever, which makes you feel better in a game where they’re likely to be trailing, as indicated by oddsmakers. There have been just three running backs to crack 80 rushing yards against the Steelers, and Collins was one of them, along with Jordan Howard and Leonard Fournette. The Steelers will also be without Ryan Shazier, which obviously hurts their front-seven. Collins could have better game-script, but it’s hard to say he’s anything less than a low-end RB2 considering how well he’s played. He’s got all the negatives for DFS – on the road, a heavy underdog, etc., but he’s still in play for tournaments as someone who will get all goal-line work. Woodhead is the wildcard in this matchup, because if the Ravens fall behind, they could go into heavy pass-mode. He’d benefit from that, so consider him a risk/reward RB4, especially in PPR formats. Allen belongs on waiver wires.

Le’Veon Bell: It’s been somewhat of a boring last month for Bell, as he’s failed to reach 100 yards on the ground in each of the last five games and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since Week 8. He’s still remained extremely consistent, as he’s totaled at least five catches and 32 yards through the air in each of the last four weeks, including 106 yards and a touchdown last week. He’s the definition of safety at the position, though the Ravens are one of the toughest opponents to face off against. He did tear them up for 186 total yards and two touchdowns back in Week 4, but they were without defensive tackle Brandon Williams for that game, the biggest cog on their defensive front. He was Jekyll and Hyde against them last year, totaling just 70 total yards in their first meeting with no touchdowns, but then crushed them for 137 total yards and two touchdowns later in the year while at home. He’s an RB1, obviously, and one that can never be avoided in DFS, though I may be slightly underweight on him this week because of how difficult the Ravens have been to run on this year.

WRs
Mike Wallace: He’s seen a bump in his production over the last month, while Maclin has seen a dip in his. This will likely even out over the final month of the season, but knowing that Wallace has seen an average of 7.5 targets over the last four games, he’s on the fantasy radar once again. This is also a rematch against his former team, and he’s played well against them in two of the last three meetings, totaling 4/124/1 in a game last year, and then 6/55/1 against them earlier this year. They’re still without Joe Haden, which also helps his projection, as the Steelers have now allowed nine top-30 wide receivers in their last five games. He’s in play as a high-end WR4 this week with the Ravens starting to spread out and extend their offense.

Jeremy Maclin: His matchup is tougher than Wallace’s, as he’ll match-up against Mike Hilton in the slot, who has been a massive surprise for them. He’s been targeted 34 times on the year and he’s allowed a rather-high 25 receptions, but they’ve gone for just 9.6 yards per reception and one touchdown. He was beat by veteran Golden Tate out of the slot a month back for 7/86/0, so he’s not unbeatable, but Maclin can’t be played with any confidence due to his three straight games with 41 or less yards. He’s their top red zone threat, so there’s always a chance for him to score, but he’s nothing more than a low-ceiling WR4.

Antonio Brown: So, his foot is okay then? Playing against a Bengals team he usually struggles against, Brown cracked the 100-yard mark and scored what was the game-winning touchdown. Another week to heal up for Sunday night football with a Jimmy Smith-less Ravens defense, he’ll be just fine. Smith’s replacement is Marlon Humphrey, their first-round rookie selection from this year’s draft. Good luck covering one of the all-time greats, kid. There’s not much I can say about him that you don’t already know – he’s a stud. There is zero-reason to fade him in DFS this week, as you don’t want to be left without Brown going into Sunday night football.

Martavis Bryant: Knowing that Smith-Schuster is suspended for this game should give you more confidence when inserting Bryant into your lineup. He’s going to see Brandon Carr the majority of the time, who is likely the best cornerback left on their roster, but he’s now 31 years of age and likely not as fast as he used to be. In the end, it really doesn’t matter, as Bryant is going to be a boom-or-bust option most weeks, with this one being no different. He’s seen six targets in each of the last two games, which is a step in the right direction. Knowing how well Roethlisberger plays at home, I’m inclined to play him as an upside WR4 and one that I’d likely choose in a tie-break situation. He’s obviously in play for tournaments, but belongs nowhere near a cash lineup.

TEs
Ben Watson: Did you know that last week’s touchdown was Watson’s third of the season, but first from Flacco? Just a fun little tidbit that was mentioned in Watson’s paragraph last week, so I laughed a little bit when watching him score that touchdown. The Steelers have allowed just two tight ends to finish with top-12 numbers against them this year and just two tight ends to total more than four catches against them. Watson was one of those who did, as he totaled 5/43/0 on six targets in their first meeting. He’s seen more than five targets just four times all season, so relying on that again may not be wise. Even if he does, that line of 5/43/0 doesn’t do much for your fantasy team unless he scores, which we’ve already established doesn’t happen with Flacco very often. The Steelers have allowed jut two tight end touchdowns this year, so feel free to find another streamer.

Jesse James: If you’re relying on James in season-long leagues, you likely aren’t in the playoffs, so let’s just assume you’re here for the DFS side of things. The Ravens have been a middle-of-the-pack defense against tight ends this season if you look at the overall numbers, but tight ends have seen just 74 targets against them, the sixth-fewest in the league. On a point-per-target basis, they are the eighth-worst team in the league against tight ends, though a lot of the points they allowed went to Marcedes Lewis in that London game that has thrown everything off. While they allowed three touchdowns to him, they have allowed just three touchdowns outside of that game. James totaled just 3/40/0 the last time they played, though he may be asked to play a larger role with Smith-Schuster out for the game. Still, he’s just a punt-play in tournaments.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Total: 47.0
Line: NE by 11.0

QBs
Tom Brady: Coming off what may have been his worst game of the season, Brady will look to get back on track against the Dolphins team he destroyed just a few weeks ago for 227 yards and four touchdowns. The issue is that he’ll be without his favorite target in Rob Gronkowski, who was suspended for his dirty hit on Tre’Davious White last week. Over the last five years, Brady hasn’t looked nearly as good with Gronk out of the lineup:

Let’s be real here – you aren’t benching Brady against the Dolphins, but you may want to simply lower your expectations without Gronk. Prior to Trevor Siemian wetting the bed last week, they’d allowed 10 touchdowns in their last three games and lost their best edge rusher William Hayes before that game. Brady isn’t someone I’d use in cash, but he’s in play for tournaments against what might be the league’s worst pass defense.

Jay Cutler: Don’t get too excited about Cutler’s performance last week, as the Broncos were without three key starters, and they had already been allowing the most touchdown passes in the league. The Patriots have really turned their season around after allowing six straight quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards to start the season, and have now held each of the last five quarterbacks below 12 fantasy points, which includes Derek Carr and Philip Rivers. He’s not even someone I’d want to start in 2QB formats.

RBs
Dion Lewis, Rex Burkhead, and James White: The Patriots are likely to lean on their run game more than usual this week with Gronkowski out. The Dolphins allowed the duo of Lewis and Burkhead to tag them for 166 total yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting, and losing Hayes won’t help. Since Week 8, Burkhead has been playing 30-50 percent of the snaps, which doesn’t sound like much, but he’s getting all their goal-line work, which is a very valuable role to have. Lewis has been getting a consistent 10-15 carries, making him a solid low-end RB2 who lacks the ceiling that Burkhead has with his receiving and goal-line work. Burkhead is a solid RB2 going forward and this game is no different. He may actually have a higher ceiling with Gronkowski out, due to how much he’s used in the passing game. Both are in play for cash and tournaments, though I’d prefer Burkhead of the two. White’s seen his role fade as the week’s have gone on, but he may be asked to play out of the slot more often in this game, making him an interesting tournament option who’ll be 1-2 percent owned. I wouldn’t use him in season-long leagues, though.

Kenyan Drake: It was so good to see Drake come through against the Broncos last week, as I’ve been standing behind him, saying that he deserved more work all along. This is a rematch of the game two weeks ago where he totaled just 12 touches, but managed to record 47 yards and a touchdown. I’m not expecting Damien Williams to be active this week, so expect another solid workload against the Patriots this week. There have only been eight running backs to total at least 14 touches against them, but six of them were able to total at least 8.1 standard points or 12.0 PPR points. Running backs have actually averaged 4.99 yards per carry against the Patriots, which is the highest average in the league, but they’ve allowed just four rushing touchdowns. Fortunately, Drake produces in the receiving game as well, making him a low-end RB2 for this game. His price has come up quite a bit, but he’s still cash-game viable, though not a required play. Knowing the low implied team total, I’d say he’s probably a better cash-game play than tournament play.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: Similar to Week 12, we are going to like Cooks against the Dolphins. He tagged them for 6/83/1 the last time they played, and that was while Gronkowski was going off for 82 yards and two touchdowns himself. Xavien Howard is the one who’ll be tasked in covering him, and while he’d been struggling coming into Week 13, he intercepted two of Trevor Siemian‘s passes, which should give him a little confidence boost. The issue is that he isn’t getting any faster, which is why it’ll be tough for him to hang with Cooks, who burns slower cornerbacks like him all day. He’s a WR1 who might just see double-digit targets for the second time all season. He’s in play for tournaments, obviously, and is worth cash-game consideration.

Danny Amendola: There is a trickle-down effect from Gronkowski out of the lineup, and it bleeds into all the pass-catchers, including Amendola, who totaled just one catch for 15 yards the last time they played. But here’s the thing – Bill Belichick won’t remain stagnant. He’ll change the gameplan and attack them in a different way, even if they crushed them in the first meeting, because that’s just what he does, and what makes him better than all other coaches. Amendola has been seeing a consistent four targets the entire season with some occasions where he’ll see more. This is likely one of those weeks, making him a solid low-owned tournament option. He’s still just a risky WR4 in season-long leagues, but he has more appeal in PPR formats this week.

Jarvis Landry: While there was concern at one point that DeVante Parker would eat into Landry’s workload, there is no more. He’s seen at least nine targets in seven of the last 10 games, as Parker has fallen out of favor, and now behind Stills. Last week’s matchup against Chris Harris Jr. was one of the toughest matchups Landry will have all year, so to see him put up 5/62/0 was actually quite promising. The Patriots have struggled to contain him over the last two years, as they’re best at taking away perimeter options at wide receiver. Landry is moved all over the place, making it difficult for a defense to bracket him the way they would with someone like Julio Jones. Because of that Landry has posted 8/70/0, 9/76/1, and 10/135/0 in their last three meetings. He’s a strong WR2 this week and one you should consider for your cash lineups, as well as tournaments.

Kenny Stills: He’s playing the role that a lot of us thought Parker would have this year, as he’s now sitting on a 16-game pace of 64 receptions for 977 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s now averaged nearly nine targets per game over the last month, though his only dud came against the Patriots when he caught three of his six targets for 47 scoreless yards. As mentioned above, he’s got the tougher matchup this week, as both he and Parker will see Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler in coverage. They’ve been playing extremely well as of late, so put Stills back on ice for this game, as he’s just a big-play hopeful WR4 and not one I’d like to use in tournaments.

DeVante Parker: Ugh. Maybe there was something to his coaches saying that he didn’t have the same desire that he did at the beginning of the season. After posting at least 66 yards in each of his first five full games this season, he’s now failed to top 26 yards in each of the last three games, and has seen just seven targets over the last two weeks. The Dolphins run a lot of three-wide receiver sets, so he’s still on the field, but he’s been passes by Stills on the pecking order, it seems. He’s not in play for season-long leagues, but he makes for a great tournament play in case he’s kind of forgotten about and snags two touchdowns. Believe me, stranger things have happened.

TEs
Dwayne Allen: Remember the last time Gronkowski missed a game and everyone wanted to play Allen as a TE1? That didn’t end well, as he didn’t see a single target that game. His role has grown a tad over the last month, seeing two targets on three different occasions. It may not sound like much, but it may have just taken him time to acclimate to the offense. The Dolphins have been extremely giving to the tight end position this year, allowing eight touchdowns, which is why 8-of-12 tight ends have finished as top-15 options. Because of that, Allen is definitely on the streaming radar this week and one who makes sense in DFS tournaments.

Julius Thomas: Not only has Stills seen a bump in production as of late, but Thomas has now scored in three of the last five games, and has totaled 52 or more yards in two of them. He’s only seen more than five targets twice, though both occasions have come in the last five games. The Patriots had struggles against tight ends earlier in the season, but seem to have figured out some of those problems as of late, allowing just one of the last six tight ends to finish inside the top-12. The good news? It was Thomas, as he totaled five catches for 52 yards on six targets. That was with Matt Moore under center, but I wouldn’t run from him this week, even with Cutler. He makes for a solid high-end TE2 and one who can be streamed. I don’t think he’s safe enough for cash lineups, though.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.