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Early 2018 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

Early 2018 Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft

Say goodbye to productivity outside the realm of fantasy baseball. FantasyPros has opened the Draft Wizard tool for 2018.

The simulation allows users to perform practice drafts in minutes without fellow humans wasting their time. Every other team is automated using expert rankings submitted to FantasyPros. Sixteen experts have filed their rankings as of this writing, so the ECR should change considerably as spring approaches.

Last week, I conducted my first of what will be many mock drafts before Opening Day. I used most of the default settings to conduct a 12-team, 27-round snake draft with the standard five-by-five rotisserie categories in mind. I randomly received pick No. 10, where I found waiting a hitter I’d gladly take as early as No. 6.

Let’s take a look at my team with a pick-by-pick breakdown. The full results can be viewed here.

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1.10: Charlie Blackmon (OF – COL)
What does Charlie Blackmon need to do to get some love? Over the last three years, Chuck Nasty has hit .314/.376/.535 with 27 home runs, 24 steals and 113 runs per season. While a 19.6 HR/FB rate and dwindling efficiency stealing bases (14-for-24 last season) are somewhat concerning, he’ll remain a five-category stud barring a trade from Colorado. I’ll gladly take him at pick No. 10.

2.15: Kris Bryant (1B/3B/OF – CHC)
I had a tough decision to make between Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, and Chris Sale. Old habits die hard, so I ultimately passed on the ace for a dependable slugger. I’m going back and forth on Bryant and Correa as my overall No. 12 and 13 overall players, but the former’s durability-he has logged at least 650 plate appearances and over 150 games in each of the last three years-broke the tie. I might switch these two in my rankings by February.

3.34: Stephen Strasburg (SP – WAS)
I was thinking I would have to consider snagging Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard unless a hitter I liked more (most likely Jose Abreu) fell. Not only did all of my offensive targets go, but Stephen Strasburg surprisingly remained on the board seven spots below his No. 27 ECR. Since I wanted to grab at least one top-12 ace within the first four rounds, this was an easy decision. Strasburg flaunted his Cy Young ceiling by posting a 1.24 ERA and 10.7 K/9 over his last 13 starts.

4.39: Jacob deGrom (SP – NYM)
I didn’t expect to take another ace so soon, but the stars aligned perfectly. There’s no hitter I love around this area-I would have taken Brian Dozier, but he’s not someone I have to have-and deGrom is my SP No. 7 after compiling 239 strikeouts on a career-high 13.2 swinging-strike rate. Although I wouldn’t normally grab two starters so early, a mock draft is the perfect time to test out a different strategy.

5.58: Anthony Rendon (3B – WAS)
I already have Bryant at third, and Anthony Rendon isn’t a particularly exciting pick. He was simply too good a value to pass up at No. 58. His xStats (.294/.399/.525, 25.9 HR) largely support 2017’s monster year, and we could even get greedy and hope for a return to double-digit steals. Although he doesn’t provide tremendous upside in one particular category, I believe in him as a boring but great top-50 player.

6.63: Andrew Benintendi (OF – BOS)
Nearly my pick over Rendon, Andrew Benintendi lasted to the turnaround. I’m not buying at his No. 43 ECR or No. 40 ADP in NFBC drafts, but another 20-20 campaign will make him a reasonable fifth- or sixth-round investment. The 23-year-old adds to a foundation of hitters who can produce everywhere.

7.82: Jonathan Schoop (2B/SS – BAL)
Rendon and Benintendi aren’t huge power guys, so I added some muscle with Jonathan Schoop. I’m dubious of him maintaining last year’s .293 average with his limited plate discipline and contact skills, but the power is legit. At pick No. 82, I can afford average and a a little counting-number regression if he belts another 30 home runs. He’s another guy who isn’t on my target list but simply fell into my lap.

8.87: Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)
I labored back and forth behind Aaron Nola and Aroldis Chapman. Even in a January mock draft, I’m wary of owning the Cuban closer for off-the-field reasons. Briefly losing his job during the season didn’t help either. Given the increasing demand of top-shelf pitching, I did not expect Nola to last this long. After posting a 3.27 FIP, 9.86 K/9 and 49.8 ground-ball rate in 2017, he’s just a full healthy season away from joining the elite tier of aces. Based on NFBC ADP data, the experts who already submitted their rankings may need to bump up some starters.

9.106: Lorenzo Cain (OF – KC)
Two players hit .300 with 15 homers and 25 steals last season: Jose Altuve and Lorenzo Cain. Granted, the latter just narrowly met those arbitrary parameters (.300, 15/26), but his skillset is hard to find beyond the early rounds. He should also amass far more than 49 RBIs on a team besides than Royals, whose leadoff hitters collectively recorded an MLB-worst .279 on-base percentage in 2017.

10.111: Ian Desmond (1B/OF – COL)
A .274/.326/.375 slash line underscores how terrible Ian Desmond was last year. Among batters with at least 350 plate appearances, only eight tallied a worse wRC+ than his 69. But this is still a player with four 20/20 seasons under his belt who calls Coors Field home. He weirdly fared better on the road (102 wRC+) in 2017, so it’s well worth gambling on a rebound at this price.

11.130: Ken Giles (RP – HOU)
Three rounds after I passed on a closer who lost his job last season, I took a closer who lost his job during the playoffs. Ken Giles relinquished 12 hits, five walks, and 10 runs (all earned) during 7.2 disastrous postseason innings. If his struggles persist into 2018, the Astros could replace him with Will Harris, Joe Smith, Chris Devenski, Hector Rondon, or maybe even Brad Peacock. Yet he recorded a 2.30 ERA and 25.1 K-BB% during the regular season, so I’ll take my chances on those elite skills returning.

12.135: Nicholas Castellanos (3B/OF – DET)
Given my roster’s lack of home-run upside, I probably should have grabbed Joey Gallo. Instead I could not resist Nicholas Castellanos, whose No. 136 ERC should rise once more analysts-myself included, I’ll have him closer to 100-publish their rankings. A 43.4 hard-hit rate and .362 xOBA (20 points higher than his wOBA) suggest ample room for growth. I envision his .272 batting average jumping closer to 2016’s .285, and it’s possible he makes a push for 30 homers. He won’t drive in another 101 runs in a depleted Tigers lineup, but I still want as many shares of Castellanos as possible. Especially at this price.

13.154: Jay Bruce (OF/1B – NYM)
I wanted power, and only nine hitters have amassed more home runs than Jay Bruce (69) over the last two seasons. Perhaps I could have waited another round, but I’ll take a dependable 30 long balls from my No. 5 outfielder.

14.159: Luke Weaver (SP – STL)
Luke Weaver won’t last this long in a real draft. A prime example of a wide-awake sleeper, his No. 105 NFBC leaves little room for profit. Allowing 14 runs over the final week has not tempered 2018 expectations. With that said, I’m also smitten over his 117 strikeouts and 29 walks in 96.2 career major league innings. He’s a tremendous No. 4 starter with upside, but anyone wanting actual shares will probably have to pay for a No. 2 or 3.

15.178: Marwin Gonzalez (1B/2B/3B/SS/OF – HOU)
I certainly don’t expect a 2017 repeat from Marwin Gonzalez, but it’s awfully hard to pass up someone with a 144 wRC+ and eligibility at every position besides pitcher and catcher. At this stage of the draft, I’m not paying for his career year. A .275, 20-homer season with a handful of steals would be nice.

16.183: Trevor Bauer (SP – CLE)
I could have waited longer to round out my pitching staff with some stable arms, but Trevor Bauer was calling my name. Like Weaver, Bauer shouldn’t be this cheap in real drafts after boasting a 3.01 ERA, 93 strikeouts and 26 strikeouts in 83.2 second-half innings.

17.202: Mark Melancon (RP – SF)
From 2013 to 2017, Mark Melancon authored a 1.80 ERA and 147 saves, the third most behind Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen. I never liked him much when drafted as an elite closer, but now I’m buying at a discount. Sam Dyson and his 6.09 ERA won’t take away any save opportunities.

18.207: Jon Gray (SP – COL)
Same deal as Bauer: I couldn’t ignore a young pitcher with a high strikeout rate and ace ceiling this late. Were I actually managing this team, I could use Jon Gray carefully away from Coors Field as my No. 6 starter. Given his 3.13 home ERA, treating him with kid gloves might not even be necessary.

19.226: Marcus Semien (SS – OAK)
Marcus Semien has swiped 10-12 bags in each of the last three years and he’s only one season removed from blasting 27 dingers. One could argue I should have made him my shortstop instead of Gonzalez, but I instead have a post-hype middle infielder. A .250, 20/10 season is well within the 27-year-old’s reach.

20.231: Mitch Haniger (OF – SEA)
Mitch Haniger has seemingly lost last spring’s sleeper luster despite hitting .282/.352/.491 with 16 homers and five steals in 91 games. Perhaps everyone switched gears to football and missed his sensational September (.353, 7 HR), but I’m going back to the well in hopes of getting a 25-10 season.

21.250: Welington Castillo (C – CHW)
I needed a catcher eventually, and the AI won’t necessarily limit each simulated team to one. Welington Castillo will probably lose a couple of homers away from Camden Yards, but he was still the best power option available without selling out entirely on batting average. If he starts slow, I wouldn’t feel guilty about dropping pick No. 250 and chasing the position’s hot hands all year.

22.255: Arodys Vizcaino (RP – ATL)
Arodys Vizcaino will make up for Melancon’s middling strikeout numbers, and both have more job security than the typical closer taken this late. A 3.72 FIP may scare drafters away, but I couldn’t resist his 14.7 swinging-strike rate and 35.2 swing percentage outside the strike zone.

23.274: Delino DeShields (OF – TEX)
A No. 281 ECR is currently way too low for Delino Deshields, who needed only 120 games to steal 29 bases. You may already have heard, but speed is in high demand these days. He also drew a walk in one-tenth of his 440 plate appearances, so I’m hoping the Rangers don’t sign another center fielder-although that could improve my Cain purchase-and let DeShields run wild atop the batting order.

24.279: Chase Anderson (SP – MIL)
Honestly, I might have taken Chase Anderson ahead of Gray if I realized he was still available. Added velocity supported his rise in whiffs and strikeouts, and his 3.08 batted-ball FIP tied Strasburg for the 11th-best clip among all starters. You don’t fully need to buy into 2017’s 2.74 ERA to take a late-round flier, though I anticipate him going closer to his No. 161 NFBC ADP in most drafts.

25.298: Yonder Alonso (1B – CLE)
At pick No. 298, getting the second-half Alonso (.254/.354/.420, 8 HR) rather than the first-half stud (.275/.372/.562, 20 HR) wouldn’t be a catastrophe. The experts who published their rankings are clearly dubious of last year’s out-of-nowhere breakouts, but the first baseman’s plate discipline and well-documented uptick in fly balls could yield another 20-25 homer campaign with solid counting numbers. I’ll be sure to only use him against righties.

26.303: Blake Treinen (RP – OAK)
Blake Treinen wields a career 3.21 ERA and 61.4 ground-ball percentage. After getting dealt to the A’s, he relied more on a slider that netted a 27.6 whiff percentage. The adjustment led to him recorded a 2.13 ERA, 42 strikeouts, and 13 saves in 38 innings. He should get the first crack at save opportunities with little competition in a ransacked bullpen.

27.322: Josh Harrison (2B/3B/OF – PIT)
I probably should have had more fun with this last pick. Instead I took Josh Harrison as a boring MI/CI insurance option. He could offer a 12-12 season that looks decent enough in the aggregate, but is excoriatingly boring to own over 162 games.

Final Grade: 91 of 100 (A-)

The Draft Wizard projects 47 hitting and 44 pitching points, which would bring me one point behind first place in this fictional universe. My squad, however, is far from perfect. I’m projected to finish eighth in home runs, a sign that I over-corrected my response to the game’s power surplus. I’ve often made the reverse mistake of hoarding too much pop at the expense of average and steals, so I’ll spend the winter finding the sweet spot. In hindsight, I should have grabbed Gallo over Castellanos and/or Khris Davis instead of Benintendi.

My pitching staff has the potential to exceed these estimations if healthy. In a real league, I’d look to package a starter and mid-level bat for a slugger, preferably a first baseman or middle infielder.

There’s an excellent crop of superstar hitters before offense dries up a bit, so I’m liking the third and/or fourth round as a time to attack pitching. This might not be the first time I take aces consecutively in those slots, but that strategy may more realistically yield deGrom and Carlos Carrasco/Zack Greinke/Luis Severino from the No. 10 slot.

It’s a good start to wet my feet back into the drafting waters. I’m sure my philosophies and strategies will shift after running a few dozen more simulations.


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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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