Two-start pitchers are a fluid thing week-to-week. Sometimes, like last week, you’re flush with streamable options. Now, they might not all be great options, but at least the opportunity to pick them up, if need be, is there. However, some weeks are just stuffed with top line talent that you either already roster, or you don’t. Week 5 is most certainly the latter scenario. Still, just because you own someone doesn’t mean you’re entitled to roll them out. Remember that. It might come up again.
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Don’t Think Twice
Max Scherzer (5/1 vs. PIT, 5/6 vs. PHI)
Justin Verlander (5/1 vs. NYY, 5/6 @ARI)
Clayton Kershaw (4/30 @ARI, 5/5 @SD)
Charlie Morton (4/30 vs. NYY, 5/5 @ARI)
Jake Arrieta (4/30 @MIA, 5/6 @WAS)
Widely-Owned Options
Zack Greinke (4/30 vs. LAD, 5/5 vs. HOU)
These matchups are far from ideal. Both clubs are inside the top 10 in team wRC+ over the last two weeks, yet you could make the case that each is still underachieving. Greinke’s velocity loss is also not the best case scenario, but are you going to bench the guy striking out over a batter per inning with a 10.67 K/BB ratio? I thought not.
Trevor Bauer (4/30 vs. TEX, 5/5 @NYY)
It’s not 100% clear that Bauer will pitch on Saturday. What is clear is that he’ll make two starts. Cleveland has a make-up doubleheader with Toronto on Thursday and while Carlos Carrasco is scheduled to go Game 1, it’s unknown who will throw Game 2. Keep an eye out, but by virtue of going Monday and the Indians having eight games in Week 5, there’s safety in Bauer.
Jon Lester (4/30 vs. COL, 5/6 @STL)
The Rockies have the fourth highest wOBA against left-handed pitching this season (.358), but pair that with the National League’s worst strikeout rate versus lefties (27.4%). Lester’s starting to look his age in 2018, however, away from Coors, in a vacuum, park-adjusted stats say Colorado’s just not that good. The Cardinals haven’t been great when drawing a LHP, but the return of Jedd Gyorko makes them better. Still, when it’s all said and done unless you’re blessed with pitching depth, you’re using the veteran.
Mike Clevinger (5/1 vs. TEX, 5/6 @NYY)
Among the 134 pitchers to throw 100-plus innings last season, Clevinger had the fifth-lowest opponent zone contact rate at 80.1%. That figure trailed only Danny Salazar, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom. Great company. This year, his 90.8% mark has him ranked ninth-highest, putting him with the likes of Ty Blach, Felix Hernandez, and Mike Leake. Not as good. The ERA and FIP paint a nice picture, but I’m curious if this inability to miss bats is more than just small sample noise.
Jameson Taillon (4/30 @WAS, 5/5 @MIL)
Taillon’s been roughed up over his last two starts, surrendering 12 earned runs over 5.1 innings against Philadelphia and Detroit. More concerning is that going back three starts to include six scoreless frames versus Miami, Taillon’s only struck out eight batters. Still, he’s talented and brings an elite 54.8% ground ball rate to the table. Feel comfortable in firing him up next week.
Tanner Roark (4/30 vs. PIT, 5/5 vs. PHI)
Even with his quasi-reputation as a soft contact wizard, Roark’s .197 BABIP is ridiculous. However, the Pirates’ bats have cooled significantly after a blazing hot start, amounting to a .298 wOBA over the past 14 days. The Phillies have the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at 27.9%. It lines up pretty well for Roark.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (5/1 @ARI, 5/6 @SD)
141 pitchers have had 50-plus batted ball events so far this season. Just 10 can claim to have an average exit velocity below 85 mph on those events. Ryu is one of those 10. Though, to be fair, he has only 51 BBE because no one’s been able to make contact at all against him in 2018, resulting in his 30.7% strikeout rate through four starts. Yes please.
Aaron Sanchez (4/30 @MIN, 5/5 @TB)
We know the book on Sanchez. He struggles with left-handed bats. Well, the Twins bring little in terms of LHB quality, though Max Kepler and Eduardo Escobar have exceeded expectations so far. As for the Rays, they lack quantity. As a team, they have the sixth-fewest plate appearances of lefties facing right-handed pitchers, a big blow in that department coming from the loss of Kevin Kiermaier. These are the weeks you live for with Sanchez. The ratios will be there and the strikeouts will come with the volume.
In the Danger Zone
Jakob Junis (5/1 @BOS, 5/6 vs. DET)
To be fair, Junis has was mostly responsible for one of the four times the Tigers have been shutout this season, but that’s both a positive and a negative. He’s actually faced Detroit twice so far in 2018, pitching 15 innings of two-run baseball. Despite their 138 wRC+ over the two weeks prior to that aforementioned fourth shutout yesterday afternoon, I think we can all agree the Tigers aren’t very good. Therefore, Junis is sort of out here padding his stats. The .155 BABIP and 96.0% strand rate are going to bite him sooner or later and Fenway seems like a logical place for it all to cave in – if you don’t count the five home runs he surrendered to the White Sox as that already occurring.
Felix Hernandez (5/1 vs. OAK, 5/6 vs. LAA)
I’ve made my feeling on the former King very clear in this piece before, but I will repeat them as 63% of people on Yahoo! still have seemingly unwavering faith. Is Hernandez completely unusable in fantasy? No, of course not. He’ll have his spots now and again. However, is Hernandez ever someone I feel truly comfortable locking in for two chances in one week to completely tank my ratios? No, I’m not really about that life, as the children say. Hernandez is one of 10 pitchers to have already allowed double-digit barrelled balls this season and a big part of that is the fact he currently possesses the highest qualified opponent zone contact rate in the league. Everything he throws that’s hittable gets hit. Even just in a fantasy lens, pitching to contact has never been a salivating prospect.
Sonny Gray (4/30 @HOU, 5/5 vs. CLE)
Couple things here. Firstly, no one thinks Gray is actually this bad. Secondly, Cleveland might actually present the cure for what ails him, as they’ve walked in just 6.0% of their team plate appearances over the last two weeks. However, that last point is usually proof that we’re nearing the final vestige of trusting a pitcher’s command. No one wants to use the SP when the best argument for them is “I don’t know, I guess this one team might not be patient enough to take the walks that are surely coming.” Batters are just rightfully waiting out Gray. Among pitchers who have thrown 20-plus innings in 2018, only three have a lower overall swing rate than Gray’s 39.8%. The problem too is the short leash. Why leave a struggling Gray in there when Aaron Boone knows he has multiple-inning savant Chad Green waiting in the pen? In anything deeper than a 12-man, I’m not cutting bait just yet, but these are not the matchups to start believing.
Jake Faria (4/30 @DET, 5/6 vs. TOR)
In a similar vein to Sonny Gray the sophomore isn’t fooling anyone right now. His swing rate, chase chase, and swinging strike rate are all down significantly from last season and the free passes, which he’s struggled with at every level, are pilling up. A 14.1% walk rate is no way to go through life. Oh, and just for kicks, he’s also an extreme fly ball pitcher. Because who doesn’t love the combination of walks and home runs?
Steven Matz (5/1 vs. ATL, 5/6 vs. COL)
I previously mentioned how potent the Rockies have been this season against left-handed pitching, but they barely hold a candle to the Braves. Atlanta leads MLB in batting average (.292), OPS (.873), and wRC+ (140) versus southpaws – and that’s before they called-up super-prospect Ronald Acuna. Maybe we’ve uncovered the reason why Mickey Callaway won’t even commit to saying Matz will for sure be making either of these scheduled outings.
Alex Cobb (5/1 @LAA, 5/6 @OAK)
Thankfully, his ownership numbers have cratered since last week, yet the 28% of Yahoo! users who own Cobb is still roughly 28% too many. Look, I get the name value. I understand that maybe he gets better in a few weeks as he rounds into form after missing most of spring training. I’d just like to know one reason someone might feel secure in a pitcher who has over four times as many earned runs allowed (17) as strikeouts (4) through 11.2 innings. Drop him. I assure you, he’ll be there waiting if he happens to luck his way into a quality start this week.
Lucas Giolito (5/1 @STL, 5/6 vs. MIN)
Coming into his start Thursday night against the Royals, Giolito had the eighth-lowest zone rate of any pitcher who had thrown at least 20 innings in 2018. For some, that’s a good thing. Patrick Corbin, Alex Wood, Zack Godley are all pitchers who can live outside the strike zone because they induce swings and misses. Giolito? Of that same group of pitchers, the young righty had the lowest chase rate in the American League at just 18.9%. He then proceeded to strike out two members of Kansas City over 5.2 frames, somehow lowering what was already the worst K/9 in the AL entering play yesterday evening. Need I go into further detail?
Streamers Under 50%
Eduardo Rodriguez (4/30 vs. KC, 5/5 @TEX)
Jordan Montgomery (5/1 @HOU, 5/6 vs. CLE)
Lance Lynn (4/30 vs. TOR, 5/5 @CWS)
We could just make this entirely about the matchups. Kansas City and Texas, coming into Thursday, have posted a 83 wRC+ and 82 wRC+ as a team, respectively. That’s much closer to the bottom of the pack than it is to the top. Sure, the Royals are getting stronger with the activation of Salvador Perez, but Texas recently lost their third crucial infielder of the season when Adrian Beltre found himself heading to the DL earlier this week. This is more than that, though. This is a public service announcement to add Rodriguez wherever available, regardless of his two-start Week 5. The swinging strike rate is up at 14.3%, the ground ball rate is hovering around 50%, and he’s only surrendered three barrelled balls through four starts this year. Rodriguez was fantastic across August and September last season before succumbing to injury and that injury is the only thing that’s kept his ownership this low. Grab him while you still can.
Streamers Under 25%
Jordan Zimmermann (4/30 vs. TB, 5/5 @KC)
Matt Boyd (5/1 vs. TB, 5/6 @KC)
Kyle Gibson (5/1 vs. TOR, 5/6 @CWS)
I know this seems like a misprint, but even Zimmermann can be useful in deep formats when given golden opportunities like this. In a shocking twist that is almost assuredly small sample magic, Zimmermann has actually struck out 10.24 opponents per nine over his first four starts of 2018. However, in a not in any way shocking twist, Zimmermann has also given up 2.33 home runs per nine, a direct result of his continuing to be one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the game. Specific to the Royals and Rays, though, that might be a good thing. Kansas City has the lowest batting average on fly balls in the league at .165. This is partly because they’ve hit only 18 long balls this season, yet also due to the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium. Tampa Bay is only hitting slightly better on flies at a paltry .183.
Not Unless You’re Desperate
Marco Estrada
Chad Kuhl
Andrew Triggs
Matt Wisler
Matt Moore
Jhoulys Chacin
Jason Hammel
Matt Koch
Brandon Finnegan
Kyle Freeland
Dillon Peters
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Garion Thorne is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Garion, check out his archive and follow him @GarionThorne.
