Once the dust settled from the 2017 season and the Titans released veteran DeMarco Murray, the writing was on the wall that Derrick Henry would take on the lead role in the offense and be the workhorse running back they drafted him to be. The Titans put the brake lights on as soon as possible, though, when they signed Dion Lewis at the start of free agency for a healthy $20 million over four years, with over $8 million guaranteed.

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Early in the draft season, Henry is going in the No. 17 running back in standard leagues and the No. 19 running back in PPR leagues. Not surprising, though, is that he comes with one of the highest deviations in ECR (Expert Consensus Rankings) among running backs, meaning there are many industry analysts torn on how they should approach him in 2018.

THE NEED FOR DION LEWIS

Most questioned the move to sign Lewis, but in reality, it should have been expected. Over his first two years in the league, Henry has been pulled out of the game in obvious passing-down situations, as he’s not a great pass-blocker, and he’s never shown the ability to be a threat as a receiver out of the backfield. It’s the reason he’s caught just 24 passes over his first 31 NFL games. That’s fine, though, because there are other running backs in the NFL who aren’t great receivers, but have shown the ability to be competent enough to get some work. I’m talking about Jordan Howard, Marshawn Lynch, and company. You honestly should have planned for the Titans to bring in someone to help on third downs, but the issue is that that player is Lewis, who was one of the better running backs in the NFL last year.

According to Pro Football Focus, Lewis graded as a top-five running back in pass-protection while posting a top-12 grade in the passing-game. The fact that the Titans gave him $20 million should tell you everything that you need to know – they’re going to use him. There’s silver lining here, though, as the Titans beat writers have recently stated that Henry seems to be the starter, while Lewis is a supplementary piece.

PRODUCTION CLOUDY FROM LATE LAST YEAR

Most will tell you that Henry finished the year strong and that they recall the 150-plus yard game against the Chiefs in the playoffs last year. What they don’t recall is that he wasn’t very good outside of that game over the final six weeks of the season. While yes, that was an absurdly good game, here’s his totals from the other five games: 63 carries for 143 yards (2.27 YPC) with one touchdown on the ground.

Despite being the clear No. 2 running back behind Murray, Henry did see a lot of work last year and actually finished with 176 carries, the 25th-most in the NFL. Eight of his runs accounted for 268 of his yards, so the big-play ability was on full display, including runs of 75 and 72 yards. Most one- and two-down backs don’t offer that big-play capability, so it’d be wise for the Titans to maximize the way they use him, though they cannot become predictable.

EVERYTHING CHANGES

The issue with projecting this backfield with any certainty is because they have an entirely new coaching staff in place with head coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur. How many times have you heard someone say that Henry will take on the old “Murray role” in the offense and that Lewis will take on Henry’s old role? That offense and those roles don’t exist anymore. LaFleur came over from the Rams, leading some to believe he’ll run a system similar to Sean McVay’s, but the personnel is much different. With the Rams, Todd Gurley played almost all the snaps because he was able to get it done on all three downs, something Henry has yet to prove. The addition of a big-time free agent, especially someone who excels where Henry lacks, assures you that the Titans don’t view him as a three-down workhorse.

But looking at other teams around the league, can this backfield produce multiple fantasy relevant running backs? Looking at the top-32 running backs in standard fantasy points per game (minimum five games played) in 2017, there were just three teams who had multiple players on the list. The Falcons had both Devonta Freeman (11) and Tevin Coleman (20), while the Saints had Alvin Kamara (6) and Mark Ingram (8), and the Vikings had Latavius Murray (24) and Jerick McKinnon (30). Going back to 2016, there were just two teams (ATL, PIT) as well. So, while it’s not likely, it is possible.

Again, it’s hard to look at where LaFleur came from and produce any proof as to how he’ll split up this timeshare. Last year was his first as an offensive coordinator and he didn’t call plays (it’s the reason he made a lateral move to the same position with the Titans), so we have no idea how he’s modeling his offense. Prior to last year, he was the quarterbacks coach for the Falcons, so he did get to see Freeman and Coleman up close.

THE SPLIT

Looking at this logically, Henry should be the primary workhorse on first- and second-down, while Lewis gets the majority of third-down work. It’s not an automatic every-week thing, but it’s how it should play out in the long haul. Many will point out how effective Lewis was late in 2017 for the Patriots, but guys, remember that playing with Tom Brady under center and Bill Belichick/Josh McDaniels calling plays has some serious benefits. Prior to going with the Patriots, Lewis was with the Eagles, Browns, and Colts, who all decided to move on from him. He’s still just 5-foot-8 and 195 pounds, not someone you want shouldering a big workload throughout the whole season, though he can step-in if you need him to.

The way I see it, is that you should expect somewhat of a Redskins timeshare that you saw with Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson last year, but with a bit more volume. It would equivalate to roughly 8-10 carries per game for Lewis with another 4-6 targets in the passing game. This would leave roughly 14-16 carries per game for Henry with maybe 1-3 targets in the passing game. There would obviously be games where you’d see Henry getting more work with the Titans in the lead where they want to eat clock, while Lewis would be used a bit more in games they’re trailing. As of now, the Titans over/under win total in Vegas sits at 8, so it should be a mix of the two.

2018 OUTLOOK

Knowing Henry’s boom-or-bust run-style, added in with the presence of Lewis, there’s going to be some serious ups and downs to his 2018 fantasy season. It does help that the defense has been bolstered over the last two seasons and appears to be on the right track, though their front-seven may have taken a hit this offseason (yes, I know they drafted Rashaan Evans). If you want Henry, it all comes down to what you’re expecting out of him. If you think you’re getting an every-week RB2, look elsewhere, especially in PPR formats. If you’re looking for a player who can potentially win you a week from time-to-time and you feel like the rest of your roster has enough stability, he’s a fine back-end RB2. In the end, I fully expect him to get at least 200 carries, which almost guarantees top-24 numbers at year’s end. So yeah, he’s an RB2, but it’s going to be a bumpy road. When you add in all the uncertainty, he should be drafted in the RB22-24 range. My 2018 projection: 216 carries, 929 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, 29 targets, 19 receptions, 169 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.