We’re now one-eighth through the fantasy season. Oh no, have I depressed you? Well, it could be worse. You could have Le’Veon Bell, Joe Mixon, Doug Baldwin, and Josh Gordon on your FantasyPros Listener League. Yeah, that’s me. But hey, if we knew who would win every year, our friends/followers wouldn’t play with us anymore.
Setting your fantasy lineup is one of the highlights of your week, though it can also cause you serious headaches when you overthink things. That’s why this article came to fruition. Look, I have no emotional attachment to the players on your team. Heck, I don’t have an emotional connection to any players considering I’m in 17 season-long leagues and own shares of plenty of players.
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Here’s what you can expect from this mega-article every single week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. I’ve told everyone (including my leaguemates) that I’m an advice-giver first, player-second. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button each week. Let’s get this party started.
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Total: 40.5
Line: MIN by 16.5
QBs
Josh Allen: It wasn’t great for Allen in his first start, but it wasn’t Nathan Peterman-level bad. This week might be something different. He’s going on the road to play against a Vikings defense who allowed just 13.8 points per game to opponents last year, which included talented teams. It’s hard seeing the Bills offense scoring a single touchdown this week. Just say no.
Kirk Cousins: After throwing for 425 yards last week, I don’t think Cousins will be asked to do much against the Bills this week. Not only is it likely that the Bills don’t score an offensive touchdown, but it’s very possible they don’t score a single point. Both Philip Rivers and Joe Flacco threw for three touchdowns against the Bills, but I think this may be a week where the Vikings try to get their run-game off the ground, as they’ve struggled over the first few weeks. It’s not like Cousins won’t have 25-30 attempts though, so he’s going to get enough fantasy points to be considered a high-floor QB2. To this point, the Bills have allowed 48-of-61 passes (by starters) to be completed, which is a robust 79 percent completion-rate. The issue is the ceiling, as it’s possible he throws for 200 yards and three touchdowns. The lack of scoring on the Bills part will limit Cousins’ fantasy appeal in this game, making him a low-end QB1.
RBs
LeSean McCoy, Chris Ivory, and Marcus Murphy: It appears as if LeSean McCoy is going to try and “play through” fractured rib cartilage, though I don’t know why. Seriously, he shouldn’t play, and you shouldn’t play him. In fact, it’s going to be extremely hard to recommend any running back from this team, even if McCoy doesn’t play. Ivory is just a guy who is behind a bad offensive line and offers little in the passing-game. Murphy is a former seventh-round pick who has just 21 career touches. Meanwhile, the Vikings have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs on the young season and aren’t one to target in fantasy matchups. The Bills really need a better pass-catching back on the roster and it shouldn’t shock anyone to see them sign one this week. Don’t play any Bills running back – anywhere.
Latavius Murray: Dalvin Cook suffered a hamstring injury in last week’s tie against the Packers and has been ruled out for this week’s game, which is terrible timing for his fantasy owners, as he was set for the best matchup of the year. It now becomes impossible to sit Murray against a Bills defense that has now allowed 21 running back touchdowns in their last 11 games (18 rushing, 3 receiving). The fact that the Bills won’t be able to put up points on the Vikings is the most important thing here, because it means that Murray will see a HEAVY workload in this game. In the first two weeks, even 2nd string running backs have totaled 28 carries for 138 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Simply put, Murray is a must-play RB1 and the Vikings should rack up 30 carries in this game.
WRs
Kelvin Benjamin: He saw just three targets in Allen’s debut as the starter, though one of them turned into a touchdown. He’s caught just 3-of-10 targets thus far, which means he’ll need a lot more targets to be a fantasy option. The Vikings will have Xavier Rhodes on him, and while he’s struggled with quick-twitch route runners recently, Benjamin relies on physicality to win his matchups. That won’t happen against the 6-foot-1, 218-pound Rhodes. Benjamin is nothing more than a WR5 this week who I’d want to leave on my fantasy bench.
Zay Jones: His final stat line (3/63/0) looked okay, though 57 of those yards came on one play where he bobbled a ball that should have been a clean catch. Jones still hasn’t shown that he’s got the talent to make it in this league and Allen’s far from a quarterback who’ll make him look better. He’s not a fantasy option at this time, though he’s playing the most snaps among the Bills wide receivers.
Stefon Diggs: He’s doing what most of us film-buffs thought he’d do this year, totaling 171 yards and three touchdowns through two games (okay, I didn’t expect three touchdowns) with Cousins. It’s refreshing to see a quarterback willing to let Diggs run under the ball, as evidenced by his career-high 14.2 yards per reception. The Bills play sides with their cornerbacks, which means there’s not just one who’ll see Diggs the majority of time, as he plays all over the formation. The Bills had Vontae Davis retire at halftime last week. Halftime. Then starting cornerback Phillip Gaines had to be carted off with an elbow injury, so outside of Tre’Davious White, the Bills have backups in the secondary. The concern is that there won’t be much passing-game volume for the Vikings this week, but Diggs should make the most of his opportunities, making him a high-end WR2, but one I’d stay away from in cash lineups.
Adam Thielen: I was wrong. The Vikings have two wide receivers who can be top-15 options. Part of being a good analyst (or person in general) is the willingness to not be stubborn and stick to a take even when you’ve been proven wrong. Thielen now has 25 targets through two weeks, which is more than enough for him to finish as a top-15 wide receiver, even if Diggs is more talented. Thielen will see former undrafted free agent Rafael Bush in the slot, which is a major mismatch, as he’s been forced into action and has allowed six catches for 68 yards and a touchdown on just six targets in coverage this year. Thielen has the same issue as Diggs this week where volume is a real concern, but their efficiency should go up even more than usual, making Thielen a high-end WR2 as well. He’s the one I’d prefer in cash games if you wanted to play one of them.
TEs
Charles Clay: Even though Clay has more than double the snaps than backup Jason Croom, he trails him in targets 7 to 5, which is quite odd. Still, it appears that Clay is no longer the only option they’re using at tight end, making him even more volatile than before. The Vikings have shown a vulnerability to tight ends this season, allowing 5/90/0 to George Kittle and then 6/95/0 to Jimmy Graham in Week 2. If there’s one player who you’d even consider in fantasy for the Bills this week, it’s Clay, but do you really want to do that to yourself?
Kyle Rudolph: After seeing just two targets in the opener, Rudolph got back on track in Week 2 seeing eight targets and turning them into seven catches for 72 yards. It should have been expected with Cousins throwing for 425 yards, but it’s going to be a different scenario this week. If Cousins throws for more than 250 yards I’d be shocked, making Rudolph a touchdown-or-bust option against the Bills who have allowed just five TE1 performances since the start of last year. Their lack of cornerback depth is likely going to leak into their ability to defend tight ends, but I’m not willing to bump Rudolph into must-play territory. He’s still on the TE1 radar with how shallow the position is, but he’ll need a touchdown to not disappoint.
New York Giants at Houston Texans
Total: 42.0
Line: HOU by 3.5
QBs
Eli Manning: It’s been a brutal start to the season for Manning, even if his final stat line against the Cowboys looked okay. His offensive line is crumbling in front of him and he hasn’t shown the ability to complete passes down the field when they do hold their blocks. Against the Texans, in Houston, that won’t change. J.J. Watt has shown that he’s at least close to the player he once was, while D.J. Reader has been solid alongside him on the interior of the defensive line. If they get Jadeveon Clowney back this week (he says he’s playing), the flood gates will open. You should also know that Manning’s starting center Jon Halapio was announced out for the season on Monday. It’s hard to see Manning having much time to do anything, though the Texans secondary has absolutely no options to cover Odell Beckham. Manning cannot be trusted outside of 2QB leagues, even if Beckham may carry him through this game. I’m not even willing to put Manning in a tournament lineup this week.
Deshaun Watson: It was more of the same from Watson in Week 2, though the final stat line looked a bit better. Watson has shown the willingness to throw the ball up into double-coverage, and seeing that he has Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller, it’s worked out more than it hasn’t. The Giants defense hasn’t been the reason they’ve started 0-2, as they’ve held Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott to just 336 yards and two touchdowns combined. They both ran for a bunch, though, which is where Watson can really impress. Watching Bortles trot for 42 yards and Prescott go for 45 yards, it shouldn’t be shocking to see Watson add some big rushing totals here. In the first home game, expect the Texans to come out firing after a disappointing 0-2 start to the season. Watson should be a QB1 in Week 3 and needs to be in fantasy lineups, as the Giants have only registered one sack through two games. Watson is both tournament and cash-game viable.
RBs
Saquon Barkley: Fun fact: there are just seven wide receivers with more targets than Barkley through two games. The fact that the offensive line is struggling is leading to plenty of checkdowns from Manning, though PPR leaguers won’t complain. Barkley didn’t break a long run against the Cowboys last week, but his receiving kept his fantasy numbers afloat. The Texans haven’t been kind to opposing run games lately, as they’ve allowed just 3.47 yards per carry on the year. We’ve seen committee running backs play against them so far, so it’s no shock to see the biggest performance be James White‘s 15.6 PPR points. Barkley is gamescript-proof and has the three-down skillset. You should be starting him as an RB1 each and every week, as he’s shown the ability to produce even when the offense is struggling. He’s not going to be a cash-game play in a tough matchup, but he makes for a great tournament play.
Lamar Miller: On the Sunday YouTube livestream there were plenty of questions about Miller, who I said would likely net between 50-75 yards with a minimal chance to score against the Titans leaving you feeling empty. Here we are, 70 total yards later. The offensive line isn’t going to do Miller any favors, though he should be able to find a few more holes at home this week. The Giants have allowed 173 yards and a touchdown on 41 carries this season while facing non-potent passing attacks. We saw the threat of Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott on the option against them last week, which should be a blueprint for how the Texans offense should attack them. Unfortunately, they don’t have the same offensive line, but Miller should still find his way into RB2 territory this week. He’s not safe enough for cash games, however.
WRs
Odell Beckham Jr.: It was a disappointing game for Beckham, who was a product of Manning’s struggles against the Cowboys. I will say that the Cowboys did a great job of not allowing anything get over the top of them and you could see it in the coverage, as second-year cornerback Chidobe Awuzie didn’t bite on Beckham’s stutter steps at all. While Awuzie is a promising prospect, the Texans don’t have that in their secondary. After losing Kevin Johnson to injured reserve, they’re left starting Johnathan Joseph (a 34-year-old) and Kareem Jackson on the perimeter. Jackson is an average player who was supposed to be more as a former first-round pick, while Joseph is well past his prime. Expect the Giants to gameplan to get Beckham the ball quickly in space against the Texans, and the duo of Joseph and Jackson won’t be able to keep up, as Beckham is one of the most deadly slant-runners in the game. Play him as a WR1 this week. I’d also say he’s a fine play for tournaments and cash lineups.
Sterling Shepard: He’s the player who’ll suffer most if Manning continues to struggle because we know Beckham will get his. His matchup isn’t great this week, either, as the Texans best cornerback is Aaron Colvin, who they signed in free agency this offseason. While I don’t believe he was as good as some thought being surrounded by Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, he’s a competent player. The positive with Shepard is that he’s seen 12 targets through two games, but Manning needs to start making better decisions/throws. As of now, Shepard can’t be played as anything more than a WR4, though his talent is there. Once Manning gets in one of his hot streaks (if he has any left in him), Shepard will pop back up the ranks. He still makes for a fine tournament option in this game.
DeAndre Hopkins: He’s now seen 11 targets in back-to-back games, and he found his way into the end zone in Week 2. There’s still been moments where Hopkins looks frustrated by the quarterback play, but he’s an excellent freestyler once the play breaks down. If you watch Hopkins run routes, you’ll often see him work his way back to the ball/quarterback when Watson breaks the pocket. It allows him to score long touchdowns/rack up catches due to how bad the offensive line is. Hopkins has a tough matchup this week against Janoris Jenkins, who appears to be back to his shutdown ways, though he was in coverage on Tavon Austin‘s long touchdown last week. Still, he and Eli Apple limited Keelan Cole to just three catches for 54 yards in Week 1 and essentially shutdown Allen Hurns (I know) in Week 2. We don’t know if Jenkins will shadow, but Apple has played well to this point as well. Hopkins getting targets is still extremely appealing, so he’s in WR1 territory, though he’d be in the low-end of that conversation this week. I’d limit my DFS exposure to just tournaments this week.
Will Fuller: It’s hard to ignore what Fuller has done with Watson, though it’s a small sample size. He’s averaged 78.4 yards and 1.6 touchdowns on 6.2 targets per game. The fact that Watkins is willing to throw the ball up and let his wide receivers win is going to allow for some big games. He also played 55-of-67 snaps, so his hamstring is good to go. The matchup with the Giants could allow for another big game, as he’ll be matched-up with Eli Apple in coverage most of the time. I’ll say this about Apple – he looks like a different player from year’s past, as he was looking to be released before the team gave him a fresh start. On seven targets in coverage, he’s allowed just two catches for 15 scoreless yards this year. Both Apple and Janoris Jenkins both run 4.4 40-yard dashes, so it might be difficult to blow by them this week, though he’ll get his chances, making him an upside WR3.
Bruce Ellington: With Keke Coutee out the first two weeks, it’s allowed Ellington to make a fantasy impact, though he still didn’t top 45 yards in either game and you don’t want to rely on him for a touchdown. The Giants have B.W. Webb covering the slot and he’s done a good job, holding Cole Beasley to just two catches for 13 yards on Sunday night. His snap counts will drop if Coutee is active, which in-turn makes him a fantasy afterthought outside of a great matchup, which this is not.
TEs
Evan Engram: His day was saved last week with a late fourth-quarter touchdown, but with the offensive line struggling as much as it is, Engram should continue to rack up targets the way he did in Week 2. He caught all seven of his targets in that game, though the Texans did just shutout Jonnu Smith and the Titans tight ends last week. Tyrann Mathieu hasn’t been great in coverage the last two years, so I’m blaming that on gameplan/quarterback play. In a 2018 fantasy world where tight ends are hard to find, Engram is going to be on the TE1 radar every week and I happen to think he can beat Mathieu if they give him the opportunity. He’s a great tournament play, though I simply cannot trust him in cash with Manning struggling.
Ryan Griffin: It’s another team with a timeshare at tight end, though Griffin is the clear leader in snaps at this point, as Jordan Akins‘ 52 snaps pales in comparison to Griffin’s 115 snaps. The matchup is a good one, though you wouldn’t know it if you watched the Cowboys timeshare last week. The Giants allowed seven 15-plus PPR performances last year, while no other team allowed more than five of them. It’s a new coaching staff, so the priorities have changed, though there’s still a lot of the same personnel. Unless you’re desperate, avoid any timeshare at the position that’s already hardest to predict.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
Total: 47.5
Line: GB by 3.0
QBs
Aaron Rodgers: Let’s just say that Rodgers is a robot who’s been put into the NFL to keep everyone wondering if Tom Brady is the greatest of all-time. Despite playing on essentially one leg, he went out and hung 29 points on a top-three defense in Week 2. Him not having his legs is going to affect his fantasy output, as it’s a very underrated aspect of his game, but not enough to bench him. The front-seven of Washington will seem like a walk in the park when compared to Minnesota, so Rodgers will be under center and ready to go. Despite playing against the Cardinals and Colts (who both have underwhelming offensive lines), Washington has generated just three sacks through two games. Their secondary is likely the weak-point of their team, as even Josh Norman doesn’t look great anymore. With them struggling to find their run-game, Rodgers will be relied upon again. Consider him a solid QB1 who has a limited ceiling without his legs, as the Packers aren’t aggressive with a lead.
Alex Smith: After many touted him as a top-eight play last week, there’ll be plenty of doubts after last week. I had my fears about him, though it was from a gamescript standpoint rather than a matchup one. The Packers defense isn’t one to fear, as they just allowed Kirk Cousins 425 yards and four touchdowns while at home. Prior to that, Mitch Trubisky had a great first half against them, though he fell flat on his face in the second-half, and not necessarily because of the defense. Smith is arguably a better play this week than he was last, though the play-calling needs to improve. I’m expecting low-end QB1/high-end QB2 numbers out of him this week in a game he’ll be throwing 35-plus times. It’s very possible he makes it into my cash game lineup this week. If there’s one thing that would hurt his projection, it’s his left tackle Trent Williams, who limped off the field in the fourth quarter after injuring his surgically-repaired knee. We’ll want to check his status come game day.
RBs
Jamaal Williams, Ty Montgomery, and Aaron Jones: It hasn’t been the start that Williams had hoped for this season, as he’s totaled just 106 yards on 31 carries with no touchdowns through the first two weeks. The suspension for Jones is now over, meaning Williams is likely to share the backfield a bit more going forward. While some will project Jones to take over, I wouldn’t be so quick to jump on that grenade, as Williams is the much better pass-protector, and that’s paramount right now with Rodgers dinged up and hobbled. Washington has attempted to rebuild their front-seven and have a ton of talent up there and have limited David Johnson and Marlon Mack to a combined 71 yards on 19 carries, though Johnson did score a late touchdown when the game was out of hand. As of now, Williams should be looked at as a decent floor RB3, while Jones is someone you stick into lineups if you’re desperate and are looking for the potentially winning lottery ticket. Montgomery only garnered 10 touches in two games with Jones out of the lineup, so he’s nothing more than a RB5 going forward.
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: There aren’t many times where I’m willing to go all-in on a running back only to have him disappoint the way Peterson did in Week 2. The gameplan was odd to say the least, as the game didn’t get away from Washington, so there was no reason to abandon the run the way they did. Peterson needs to own some of the blame, too, as he’s trying to bounce around too much. According to NFL’s NextGenStats, he traveled 8.8 yards for every yard gained last week. By comparison, the highest mark for the 2017 season was Tarik Cohen at 5.3 yards. Peterson needs to get downhill. The Packers are a team he’s familiar with, though being a part of a new team changes matters. Neither the Bears or the Vikings topped 20 carries against them, so it’s tough to say that Peterson will reach enough volume to be a surefire play this week. Consider him a risky RB2/RB3 after his weak showing last week, though I do think he bounces back. Thompson has the exact same role that he did last year, but he’s a favorite of Smith in the passing-game, which makes him a Christian McCaffrey-lite type of player. He’s an RB2 in PPR formats and an RB3 in standard.
WRs
Davante Adams: After being questionable with a shoulder injury, Adams looked like the same ol’ player last week in a tough matchup. I said before the season that Adams could score 15 times this year and although he’s scored twice, he should have had a third last week (was a tough catch but he had it and let it pop out). Against Washington, he’s going to see a majority of former undrafted free agent Quinton Dunbar in coverage, as they don’t shadow wide receivers. Prior to 2018, Dunbar was a bench player who was a role player, and although he hasn’t allowed anything massive yet this season, he hasn’t played against Rodgers and Adams. The chemistry has been developing through the years and it shows on the field. It’s impossible to bench him and there’s no reason to this week. In fact, he may score twice in this game, making him a high-end WR1 play who is worth consideration in both cash and tournament lineups.
Randall Cobb: We went back to the normal production for Cobb in Week 2, as he was used as more of a sticks-mover than a playmaker. His six targets netted just 30 yards, while the Packers got Jimmy Graham and Geronimo Allison more involved. If Rodgers is playing a tough pass-rush, you may want to bump Cobb up in your rankings. This week doesn’t seem like one where you should love Cobb, as Washington has only registered three sacks against two of the weaker offensive lines in football. Playing with Rodgers is still appealing, as he can throw for four touchdowns at any point in time, making Cobb somewhat appealing, as he’ll be matched-up with Fabien Moreau, who’s a second-year cornerback that’s been promoted to the starting lineup with the exit of Kendall Fuller. Cobb is a WR4 this week, though he comes with more upside than most in his territory.
Geronimo Allison: He’s had a great start to the season posting 133 yards and a touchdown in two tough matchups but will be in a tougher spot this week against Josh Norman. Washington doesn’t shadow opposing No. 1 receivers and Allison plays roughly 70 percent of his snaps on Norman’s side of the field. Norman may not be the complete shutdown cornerback that he once was, but he’s still the most talented one on their roster, and Rodgers knows that. When playing against the Seahawks and Richard Sherman (who stayed at LCB), Rodgers purposely avoided that side of the field. It’s not to say Allison can’t produce on his other snaps, but I wouldn’t bet on it this week, making him more of a WR5 this week.
Josh Doctson: After last week’s disappointment, the hope for Doctson is dwindling. If you didn’t see the game, he almost made a highlight-reel touchdown reception, though the cornerback stuck his hand in between the ball and Doctson’s body, and pried it away from him. The concern about the lack of separation is still there, as Smith doesn’t target receivers who can’t shake a defender loose. He’ll see a mix of Tramon Williams and Kevin King in coverage this week, who are better than who he played against last week, though it didn’t seem like it against the Vikings last week. I’m not playing Doctson in season-long leagues until he proves that he can create enough of a cushion to get targeted more often. Update: It appears King is likely to miss this game, upgrading the matchup, though I stand by my Doctson assessment.
Paul Richardson: He’s the leading receiver on the team, but that’s not saying much. He’s gaining three yards of separation at target, which explains why he leads the team with 12 targets but has just 85 yards to show for them. He’s not a difference-maker and that’s an issue for fantasy dependence, as he’s never going to get more than what his opportunity is. With Jordan Reed, Chris Thompson, and Jamison Crowder healthy, I just don’t see his target ceiling higher than 5-7 targets per game. The Packers cornerbacks are much improved from years past, so I’m not going to chalk Richardson up as anything more than a WR5 this week.
Jamison Crowder: It seems that Crowder is someone who doesn’t play well at less than 100 percent, as evidenced by last year’s start of the season, and now the start to 2018. He’s averaged just 2.2 yards of separation through two games, which is nearly half of his number in 2017 (3.8 yards), and it explains why Smith isn’t targeting him. His matchup this week is against rookie cornerback Jaire Alexander, who ran a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, so speed isn’t to Crowder’s advantage here. Through two weeks, Alexander has allowed 11/107/1 on just 13 targets, but it’s important to note that he played against Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen last week, who accounted for 8/71/1 of that. I still want to see Crowder get in a full week of practice and create separation before trusting him as anything more than a limited-upside WR4.
TEs
Jimmy Graham: We saw the Packers make it a point to target Graham much more last week, and it showed in the stat-line as he posted six catches for 95 yards. It was his highest yardage output since Week 9 of 2016, and it actually could’ve been higher, as he scored a touchdown that was called back due to a penalty. Washington’s defense really struggled against tight ends last year, but have held each of Ricky Seals-Jones, Jack Doyle, and Eric Ebron to less than 30 yards through two games. They’ll have D.J. Swearinger come down to try and cover him, but his 5-foot-10 frame won’t contain Graham in the red zone. I don’t know if Graham will ever have that yardage again, but he’s going to score touchdowns and it should start here. He’s a TE1 this week and one that I’d toss in a few tournament lineups.
Jordan Reed: It’s nice to see Reed out there on the field, but he’s still not playing a full complement of snaps, as he’s now at 81-of-153 for the season (52.9 percent). The good news is that he’s getting targeted more than anyone else on the team (excluding Chris Thompson), and his 13 targets rank sixth among tight ends. While watching a gameday morning show, Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez said that Reed may be the best tight end in the league when healthy (I’m not saying that with Gronk around). The matchup against the Packers wasn’t a good one last year, though the loss of Morgan Burnett reared its head last week when Kyle Rudolph racked up 7/72/0 on eight targets. If the Packers can’t get pressure, Reed will be utilized down the field a bunch more. He’s a must-play TE1 while healthy. He’s really expensive for cash games, though he may be worth his cost this week if you can find the room for his salary.
