Week 10 was a pretty ugly one from a neutral observer’s standpoint. Only three of the 13 games this week were decided by one score or less (Jags-Colts, Seahawks-Rams, and Cowboys-Eagles), and we saw more proof that bad teams like the Bucs, Bengals, Raiders, and Jets have already given up on the season.
Thankfully, every week is compelling when you play fantasy football. Sure, we can appreciate a shocking result like Matt Barkley and the Bills annihilating the Jets — unless you own the Jets D, that is — but even the expected blowouts have plenty of intrigue from a fantasy perspective. Sweet, sweet fantasy, baby.
Ok, enough with the mid-90s Mariah Carey references — here’s 10 things we learned in Week 10.
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Cooper Kupp is done for the year
It seems like it’s been a less brutal year for injuries than usual (knock on wood), but the Kupp one is a big deal. Kupp has been a low-end WR1 in non-PPR formats on a per-game basis, but after missing two games with an MCL sprain, Kupp was only back for two games before he tore his ACL. It’s awful news for Rams fans and Kupp owners alike.
Kupp’s season-ending injury should provide a bit of a boost in fantasy value for Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, but those two were already obvious every-week starters. The more fantasy relevant question is who else will step up to assume some of Kupp’s targets.
Talented sophomore receiver Josh Reynolds corralled two touchdown catches in the last game that Kupp missed, and coach Sean McVay has talked up Reynolds in the past. He’s well worth a speculative add given the Rams’ ability to support three fantasy-viable WRs.
It’s also possible that the main beneficiary of the Kupp injury could be one of the Rams’ young tight ends, Gerald Everett or Tyler Higbee, who both caught touchdown passes against Seattle on Sunday. Higbee has been dominating TE snaps, but Everett is generally regarded as the more talented pass catcher. It’s hard to know which one of LA’s tight ends will assume a bigger role, and neither may see enough looks to be fantasy relevant if they continue to split the job evenly, but it will certainly be something to watch.
Nick Chubb has a high floor and a high ceiling
Entering Sunday’s action, Chubb had three straight games with 18+ touches and 75-90 yards, demonstrating his high floor as an RB2 in fantasy leagues. What we hadn’t seen yet was Chubb’s ceiling, but that was on full display in Week 10 against a soft Falcons defense.
Chubb basically did the same thing he had done in the previous game, with two exceptions. First, he broke off a 92-yard touchdown run, the longest in Browns franchise history, flashing his breakaway speed. Second, he made a significant impact in the passing game, hauling in three catches for 33 yards and a second TD. Add it all up and you get the highest-scoring running back of Week 10.
Duke Johnson is still the Browns’ RB of choice in obvious passing situations, but if Chubb can continue to catch two-to-three passes a week, it will provide a nice boost to his fantasy production. And if he continues to handle 18-22 rushing attempts each week, which is a near certainty, he’s bound to break off some more big runs. With that kind of workload — and with the Browns’ offense on the rise — Chubb could push for low-end RB1 value coming out of his Week 11 bye.
Mike McCarthy can’t hold back Aaron Jones any longer
It took about half the season for Packers coach Mike McCarthy to realize that he had a special talent in his backfield, but that time has finally come. After two promising games where he had handled at least 14 touches and produced at least 85 yards, Jones had his true breakout this week against the Dolphins, rushing 15 times for 145 yards and two touchdowns. The incredible effort pushed Jones’ league-leading yards per carry average up to an astounding 6.8 on the year.
As if that wasn’t encouraging enough, Jones also saw a season-high five targets in the passing game. He did drop one of them, but he caught three of them for an additional 27 yards. It’s fair to expect Jones to remain involved in the passing game going forward, especially now that Ty Montgomery is no longer with the team.
Simply put, McCarthy seems to have finally recognized that Jones gives the Packers a much better chance to win than plodder Jamaal Williams — and that Jones has the ability to play on all three downs. Jones may not see quite the workload of a true bell cow like Chubb, but Jones has proven that he can do enough with 15-18 touches per game to be a borderline RB1.
Leonard Fournette is finally back — but is it too late for his fantasy owners?
Coming into Sunday’s game, Fournette had played in just two of the Jaguars’ eight games and had less than 100 yards from scrimmage on the season. Not exactly the numbers fantasy managers were hoping for when they took him in the top-10 picks of their drafts.
The good news for Fournette owners is that Jacksonville clearly has no intention to ease him into lead back duties. He handled a whopping 29 touches on Sunday, compared to just eight for T.J. Yeldon and three for Carlos Hyde. Fournette didn’t have any success on the ground (2.2 yards per carry), but he was highly effective in the passing game and scored two touchdowns.
The Jags haven’t run the ball well all season, and Fournette may not be able to change that overnight, but with that kind of workload he can still provide the kind of low-end RB1 value that fantasy owners envisioned when they drafted him — provided he can manage to stay healthy this time. Of course, the bigger question may be “how many people who drafted Fournette are still alive for the fantasy playoffs?”
We finally caught a glimpse of 2016 David Johnson
Entering Sunday, Johnson had at least 100 yards or a touchdown in six-of-eight games this season, so it’s not like he had ruined his fantasy owners’ seasons (that’s Le’Veon Bell). But most of those were 70 yards and a score type of games, which pale in comparison to the elite, league-winning production we saw from D.J. when he was last healthy in 2016.
Thankfully, the 2016 version of Johnson was finally on display in Week 10. He received 20+ carries for just the second time all season, and he averaged over 4.0 yards per carry for the first time since Week 1 on his way to a season-high 98 rushing yards. Granted, it happened against a vulnerable Chiefs run defense, but Johnson doesn’t have another matchup with a tough run defense on his schedule the rest of the season.
The even more encouraging aspect of Johnson’s performance was his passing game usage. DJ easily set a season-high in catches (seven) and receiving yards (85), and his nine targets were nearly twice as many as he’s had in any game since Week 1. These kind of massive receiving lines were a common occurrence for Johnson in 2016, and he should have little trouble returning RB1 value over the rest of the season if Arizona continues to utilize him heavily in the passing game.
We saw Corey Davis break out again — and this one might have more staying power
I’ll be the first to admit that I was too quick to declare that Davis had broken out following his huge performance in Week 4. The Titans’ entire offense proceeded to go right back in the tank, and Davis’ fantasy numbers went with them. But Tennessee has looked like a different team since their Week 8 bye, so I’m going back to the well on a potential Davis breakout.
The Titans’ offense was sabotaged early in the year by Marcus Mariota’s hand/elbow injury, but remember, offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur ran the Rams’ league-leading offense last year, so there is upside here from a play-calling perspective. Since the bye, Tennessee has scored at least 28 points in back-to-back games against tough opponents (@DAL, NE), and Davis has been a big part of it.
Davis’ six catches for 56 yards in Week 9 against the Cowboys didn’t jump off the page, but he did have 10 targets, and his stat line would have looked much bigger if Mariota hadn’t missed him on an easy touchdown. As it turned out, that missed connection just pushed Davis’ big game back one week, as he caught 7-of-10 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots on Sunday.
Davis’ talent has never been in question, and as the Titans’ clear lead receiver, a breakout always seemed possible if Mariota could just be not awful. Davis’ remaining schedule is tough, but he could still produce WR2 value over the rest of the season if the Titans can just keep playing like they have over the last two weeks.
Allen Robinson is firmly back on the fantasy radar
As a receiver with a 1,400-yard, 14-touchdown season on his resume who was joining a Matt Nagy-led Bears attack, it was understandable why Robinson was drafted as a WR2 in most fantasy leagues. He had been a relative disappointment through the season’s first six weeks and then suffered a groin injury. But Robinson returned from a two-game absence in style on Sunday, pasting the Lions for six catches, 133 yards, and two scores.
It is tough to fully trust Mitch Trubisky as a passer, but he has thrown for over 300 yards in four of the last six games. The Bears’ receiver corps is also fairly muddled — Anthony Miller also had a huge game against Detroit and Taylor Gabriel has erupted at times as well. But A-Rob was signed to a massive contract to be Chicago’s number one receiver, and that’s likely what he will be over the remainder of the season. It might be a tad premature to declare him an every-week WR2, but he is only one or two big games away from getting there.
Tom Brady is in a major fantasy funk
Maybe it’s his age, maybe it’s injuries and inconsistency in the receiving corps, or maybe it’s simply New England’s ability to run the ball effectively in the red zone. Whatever it is, Tom Terrific has been anything but terrific for his fantasy owners lately.
The Patriots simply didn’t show up against Tennessee, but even during New England’s six-game winning streak, Brady underwhelmed. He has now thrown for one-or-fewer touchdown passes in four of his last five games, and is outside the top-20 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game over the last month.
It’s awfully hard to bench a player with the Hall of Fame resume of Brady, but you’ll have to next week because he’s on bye. And if the quarterback you start instead of him is someone like Mitch Trubisky or Andrew Luck, it might just be time to make the switch permanent.
Eric Ebron is a TD machine
It seemed like Ebron’s arrow was pointing down with the return of Jack Doyle, but then all Ebron did was go out and score three touchdowns against the vaunted Jaguars D. Make no mistake, Ebron is playing far fewer snaps than Doyle — he even played fewer than third-string TE Mo Alie-Cox on Sunday. But it’s also hard to argue with the fact that Ebron has now scored 10 touchdowns in nine games. He’s a legitimate red zone monster.
The lack of snaps and targets should catch up to Ebron eventually, and he is probably going to be very boom-or-bust even in a best-case scenario. But the Colts rely on their tight ends in the passing game as much as any team in the league, and given the sad state of the tight end position in fantasy football, it should not be controversial to say that Ebron can remain a TE1 even as a part-time player.
Derrick Henry scored two more touchdowns, but don’t be fooled!
Speaking of touchdown-dependent players, Henry provided two rushing touchdowns for fantasy owners who were forced to start him this week (like one of my opponents, grumble grumble). He’s now scored four touchdowns in the Titans’ last three games.
It’s reasonable to conclude that Henry’s fortunes will improve with the Titans’ offense as a whole. He is one of the more game script-reliant players out there, and is much more involved when coach Mike Vrabel calls on him to grind out a second-half lead.
Still, Henry has virtually no role in the passing game, and he isn’t even the exclusive goal-line back. It is abundantly clear that Dion Lewis is the more dynamic and effective running back for Tennessee. Henry will have big games from time to time, but he’ll always need a touchdown to pay off for fantasy owners who entrust him as their RB3/flex option, and that’s generally not a great bet despite his current hot streak.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
