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Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Trade Deadline Preview

Fantasy Baseball Closer Report: Trade Deadline Preview

With less than a week until the MLB trade deadline, we’re still waiting for the closer dominoes to begin to drop. And now that August trades are a thing of the past, any deals will need to happen before the next edition of this weekly column runs.

It remains to be seen whether this trade deadline lives up to the hype. The team most widely expected to sell off major pieces, the San Francisco Giants, have gone on a big winning streak that puts them in the thick of the NL wild-card chase. It is no longer certain that they trade closer Will Smith, the fourth-most valuable closer to date in fantasy leagues. It is even less likely that they are willing to ship him off to the rival Dodgers, who have expressed interest in acquiring his services.

Still, other closers like Ken Giles, Shane Greene, Alex Colome, and Ian Kennedy have continually come up in trade rumors, and there is even a slim chance that a more surprising name like Carlos Martinez, Raisel Iglesias, Edwin Diaz, Kirby Yates, or Felipe Vazquez gets moved by next Wednesday. It’s unclear whether Jose Leclerc or Chris Martin is the closer in Texas with Shawn Kelley on the injured list, but either or both of them could be traded as well.

Since we don’t have any major deals to dissect yet, this week’s Closer Report will focus on the teams most likely to move their closers, and who would step into the role to replace them. I’ll also examine the teams most likely to acquire a high-end reliever, and whether any potential additions could be a threat to that team’s current closer.

* Editor’s note: Sergio Romo has been traded to the Minnesota Twins. See analysis under Random Musings.

View the Closer Depth Charts for all 30 teams partner-arrow

Team (Closer) Current Rank Previous Rank +/-
Brewers (Josh Hader) 1 1   –
Padres (Kirby Yates) 2 2   –
Indians (Brad Hand) 3 3   –
Yankees (Aroldis Chapman) 4 4   –
Pirates (Felipe Vazquez) 5 6  +1
Dodgers (Kenley Jansen) 6 5   -1
Cubs (Craig Kimbrel) 7 8  +1
Astros (Roberto Osuna) 8 7   -1
Giants (Will Smith) 9 11  +2
Nationals (Sean Doolittle) 10 9   -1
Mets (Edwin Diaz) 11 10   -1
Blue Jays (Ken Giles) 12 12   —
A’s (Liam Hendriks) 13 15  +2
Angels (Hansel Robles) 14 17  +3
Tigers (Shane Greene) 15 13  -2
White Sox (Alex Colome) 16 14  -2
Twins (Taylor Rogers) 17 16  -1
Royals (Ian Kennedy) 18 20  +2
Phillies (Hector Neris) 19 22  +3
Reds (Raisel Iglesias) 20 18  -2
Cardinals (Carlos Martinez) 21 19  -2
Braves (Luke Jackson) 22 21   -1
Diamondbacks (Greg Holland) 23 23   —
Marlins (Nick Anderson) 24 27  +3
Rangers (Committee) 25 24   -1
Rays (Committee) 26 25   -1
Red Sox (Committee) 27 26   -1
Mariners (Roenis Elias) 28 28   —
Rockies (Wade Davis) 29 29   —
Orioles (Committee) 30 30   —

 

Potential Sellers

San Diego Padres
Yates’ name continues to swirl in trade rumors, but it remains unlikely he gets moved unless San Diego is given the proverbial offer it can’t refuse. Even if dealt, he’d likely close for his new team, so Yates owners shouldn’t be worried. Craig Stammen would likely inherit the closer job in the event of a trade, but rookie Andres Munoz is also a name to watch.

Pittsburgh Pirates
There has been plenty of speculation that the Pirates could deal Vazquez, but general manager Neal Huntington has repeatedly thrown cold water on the idea. As with Yates, a deal is theoretically possible if Pittsburgh is presented with a Godfather offer, but the smart money is on Vazquez finishing the season as a Pirate. Kyle Crick is the favorite to close if Vazquez does get traded, with Keone Kela and Francisco Liriano as other possibilities.

San Francisco Giants
As mentioned up top, the scorching-hot Giants look much less likely to deal Smith than they did just a couple of weeks ago. A deal is still possible, but the price would presumably be quite high and Smith would likely close for his new team. If a trade goes down, Sam Dyson appears to be in pole position to take over closer duties in San Francisco. Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta could also factor into the equation.

New York Mets
The Mets are reportedly “open to dealing” Diaz, but a deal seems highly unlikely given the team’s unrealistic trade demands. New York wants a package of prospects similar to the one it parted with to get Diaz, and that simply isn’t going to happen considering his struggles this year. The Mets are wise not to sell low on Diaz, though — he should be much better going forward. Seth Lugo would likely close if Diaz were traded, or if the foot injury he suffered on Thursday forces him to miss time.

Toronto Blue Jays
Giles is having a fantastic season. With Smith possibly off the market, Giles may be the best closer with a good chance of getting dealt. The Red Sox, Yankees, Twins, and Braves are all reportedly pursuing him, and he would likely close for three of those four teams (the Yankees being the obvious exception). Daniel Hudson would probably take over the ninth inning in Toronto if Giles is traded, but he could also be dealt, opening the door for David Phelps or Joe Biagini.

Detroit Tigers
Greene is another closer in the midst of a great season who is likely to get moved by July 31. Agreeing on Greene’s trade value may be somewhat challenging given how much better he’s been this year than last, but the Tigers may try to package him with Matthew Boyd to ease negotiations and ensure they get a strong return. Greene will be ticketed for a setup role if he heads to the Yankees, Dodgers, Nationals, or Cubs. He could close if dealt to a team that lacks a high-end closer such as the Twins, Braves, Red Sox, Rays, or Phillies, but even then it isn’t a certainty. Joe Jimenez is likely next in line in Detroit if he isn’t traded himself.

Chicago White Sox
Colome has long been rumored to be available on the trade market, and we’ll find out if — and where — he’s moved soon enough. If he goes to Atlanta, as has been speculated, he could continue to handle the ninth inning for his new team. Aaron Bummer appears to be next in line for the White Sox and makes for a smart stash given his excellent ratios and the strong likelihood he stays in Chicago.

Kansas City Royals
There hasn’t been a ton of chatter about Kennedy as we approach the trade deadline, but he’s a logical trade candidate as a pitcher who has thrived in the closer role for a rebuilding team. His hefty contract is certainly an obstacle, but the Royals may be able to cut their losses and even pry away a prospect or two from a contender if they’re willing to eat some of his salary. The cupboard is pretty bare in Kansas City behind Kennedy, but Jake Diekman is likely next up for saves if he isn’t also traded.

Cincinnati Reds
Iglesias has sporadically come up in trade chatter, but there hasn’t been anything concrete. He’ll likely remain in Cincinnati, where he’ll continue to be used in a more flexible role than his fantasy owners would like. If he’s traded, it’s quite clear that Michael Lorenzen is next in line.

St. Louis Cardinals
I touched on the Martinez trade rumors in last week’s Closer Report. With the Cardinals in the thick of the playoff chase, it still seems quite unlikely that Martinez is moved. It would probably need to be one of those rare deals in which both teams get major league talent that can help immediately. Of greater concern to Martinez owners are his recent struggles. He’s given up six runs in his last five innings and will need to pitch better if he wants to hold off a rejuvenated Andrew Miller for ninth-inning duties.

Texas Rangers
With Kelley on the shelf with biceps soreness, it’s unclear who will see the next save chance in Texas. Rangers manager Chris Woodward suggested that Leclerc and Martin could share closer duties while Kelley is out, but it’s possible that either or both are traded before Texas has another ninth-inning lead to protect. That said, it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Rangers to deal Leclerc, who is on a team-friendly four-year contract and just one year removed from a dominant season as their closer. Leclerc struggled mightily early this season, but he’s been much better lately. Perhaps Kelley’s injury, though reportedly minor, is Leclerc’s opportunity to retake the closer job and finish the season strong.

Seattle Mariners
Roenis Elias has had a rocky go as the Mariners’ closer, but he hasn’t lost the job just yet. Paradoxically, his recent struggles could diminish his trade value and therefore improve his chances of sticking around in Seattle, which is his best bet for rest-of-season save opportunities. However, even if he doesn’t get traded, Elias could soon lose his job to Hunter Strickland, who is expected to return from the injured list at the end of the month.

Colorado Rockies
The Rockies would surely love to offload Wade Davis and his 5.83 ERA at the trade deadline, but it’s hard to imagine who would want him. That doesn’t mean Davis will remain a closer, though. Colorado could turn the ninth-inning keys back over to Scott Oberg down the stretch.

Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles haven’t really had a bonafide closer all year, but Mychal Givens has been the closest thing to it. The Indians, Braves, and Dodgers are reportedly interested in acquiring Givens, but he’s unlikely to be a full-time closer down the stretch no matter where he winds up. Meanwhile, the Orioles will likely continue to deploy an unappealing closer committee whether Givens stays or goes.

Potential Buyers

New York Yankees/Los Angeles Dodgers/Washington Nationals
These three contenders are all reportedly looking to acquire some relief help, but their current closers are in no danger of being demoted to a setup role.

Philadelphia Phillies
Although the Phillies are fighting for their playoff lives and could look to add bullpen help, starting pitching may be a bigger priority for them. If Philadelphia acquires a reliever like Diekman or Givens, they are unlikely to be a threat to current closer Hector Neris. But if it’s Greene — or perhaps someone even better — Neris’ hold on the ninth inning could be very tenuous. David Robertson’s imminent return also jeopardizes Neris’ job security, but he has helped his case a bit by throwing three straight clean innings following a very rough stretch of performances.

Atlanta Braves
Luke Jackson has been good, but not great as Atlanta’s closer, and whether he holds onto the job is entirely dependent on what Atlanta does at the deadline. If the Braves acquire a closer like Giles or Colome, Jackson will likely be looking at a setup role. But if Atlanta settles for someone like Givens, Jackson should remain in the ninth inning.

Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have expressed interest in upgrading their bullpen, but it is unclear if that means they will do what it takes to acquire a top-notch closer. Rays manager Kevin Cash seems philosophically committed to a committee approach, so the bet here is that Tampa continues to utilize a committee headed by Emilio Pagan.

Boston Red Sox
Nathan Eovaldi was reportedly expected to take over the closer job in Boston, but we learned upon his activation that this wasn’t necessarily the case. For now, Brandon Workman remains the primary closer. The Red Sox are also actively pursuing some big-name closers, including Giles and Yates, either of whom would likely handle the ninth inning in Boston. If the Red Sox opt to acquire a lesser target like Hudson, Workman could manage to garner plenty of save chances down the stretch.

Random Musings

Arizona Diamondbacks
Finally, in non-trade deadline closer news, Greg Holland exited a save opportunity on Wednesday with the team trainer after walking the first two batters he faced. Holland was showing diminished stuff, but Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said he “wasn’t hurt.” Hmm. Yoan Lopez earned the save in Holland’s place. Lopez, Yoshihisa Hirano, and Archie Bradley are all candidates for saves if Holland does turn out to be hurt or otherwise unavailable.

Miami Marlins
Romo’s trade to Minnesota opens the door for flame-throwing right-hander, Nick Anderson. He appears to be next in line for the Marlins and should likely get the first crack at the job. Watch for Drew Steckenrider’s return in the next few weeks as well.

Minnesota Twins
The Twins have designated Blake Parker for assignment and acquired Sergio Romo on Saturday in a trade. The big question for Rogers owners is what will Minnesota do now? Although Rogers has scuffled a bit of late, he’s been excellent overall. Sergio Romo is not one of the big-ticket closers that would be handed the job upon his arrival. While he may get some chances occasionally, Rogers is younger and has better numbers on the year so he should keep the 9th inning role as long as he doesn’t blow it.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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