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FanDuel Market Watch: Week 15 (2019)

FanDuel Market Watch: Week 15 (2019)

Here are the players that have seen the largest value fluctuation from last week to this week’s FanDuel main slate. Depending on the situation, we may be able to exploit this information and take advantage of the fact that the player’s salary increased or decreased significantly from last week.

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Quarterbacks

Eli Manning (NYG): $6,800 vs. MIA (+$800)
The Dolphins are a bottom-five team against quarterbacks in all major categories. This could bode well for Manning except that he doesn’t have all of his weapons available. The Giants have yet to have Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Golden Tate, and Sterling Shepard all on the field at the same time. Coming off a 16 FDFP performance last week, Manning shouldn’t kill your lineups if you absolutely need salary savings. He doesn’t have any upside, either. If Jameis Winston happens to sit, then I’d rather play Ryan Griffin over Manning as my salary saver.

Andy Dalton (CIN): $6,500 vs. NE (-$500)
Sometimes the market has knee jerk responses to a situation and last week, Dalton had the biggest salary increase. Dalton is now back to about where he should be priced. He is an average quarterback (at best), on a bad team. The Patriots are the stingiest defense for quarterbacks to play against as they only allow an average of 11.5 FDFP. In the last two weeks, Dalton has had plus-matchups and only managed to average 12 fantasy points.

Running Backs

Raheem Mostert (SF): $7,500 vs. ATL (+$1,300)
Oops! I faded Mostert last week as the running back with the biggest salary increase. I didn’t trust him or the 49ers offense from a fantasy perspective. Kyle Shanahan is a very good coach but he spreads production around based upon trying to win games, not to win favor with DFS players. I would like to have last week’s recommendation back. Well, what do you know? That’s exactly what I get this week. A chance to totally redeem myself after Mostert had 109 yards from scrimmage and scored two touchdowns in a crazy 48-46 win at New Orleans. But I still can’t pull the trigger. I still can’t trust him. I still don’t trust Shanahan to feature someone. Mostert only got 10 carries and two targets last week. His price is extremely high for a guy that has only seen 15 touches twice all season. Plus, the #RevengeNarrative is heavy this week with Tevin Coleman (and Kyle Shanahan). I will be fading Mostert again.

Christian McCaffrey (CAR): $10,400 vs. SEA (-$600)
When you pay up for a guy like CMC, you are buying some peace of mind from a floor standpoint with the understanding that he has slate-breaking upside. There are 10-12 guys that have similar ceilings, but no one has the consistent floor that he does. CMC has averaged 16.5 FDFP the last two weeks without scoring a touchdown. His 25.8 FDFP scoring average is second only to Lamar Jackson but is head-and-shoulders above any other non-quarterback. Dalvin Cook is second with 20.0 FDFP. If you’ve playing McCaffrey all along then you will want to continue now that you get him at a discount. If you haven’t been playing him, then you probably could look elsewhere with him coming off two “mere mortal” games.

Wide Receivers

Isaiah Ford (MIA): $5,500 @ NYG (+$1,000)
DeVante Parker and Albert Wilson are in the concussion protocol and Preston Williams is out for the season, so Ford is certainly in play if you want to gamble a little bit. If either Parker or Wilson are cleared ahead of time, then I’ll probably pass on Ford. If it looks like Ford will be the #2 receiver then I may sprinkle him in and hope for a similar six catch, 92-yard performance on nine targets. He is only being considered because the Giants are the opponent this week. The Giants are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers and only the Buccaneers give up more wide receiver yards. At the end of the day, we’re talking about a guy who was the #4 receiver on a bad team just a few weeks ago.

John Ross (CIN): $4,900 vs. NE (-$600)
He only gained 28 yards on two receptions against the Browns last week. This is not the matchup for him to bounce back. He is the fastest man in the NFL, which always provides the chance for a big play, but the most likely scenario is that he has a sub-par game against a Patriots team that doesn’t typically give up big plays.

Tight Ends

Ian Thomas (CAR): $5,300 vs. SEA (+$1,300)
He saw 10 targets last week against Atlanta ending with a 5-57-1 stat line. We’ll gladly take 14 fantasy points from a low-priced tight end. We can still get him at a discount this week in a nice matchup. Greg Olsen will be out again, so he becomes a fine option if trying to save a little bit of salary.

Austin Hooper (ATL): $6,200 @ SF (-$400)
After sitting out three games with an injury, Hooper returned to the lineup last Sunday. He didn’t do anything of note, but it was good to see him back out there. With Calvin Ridley out for the rest of the season, the Falcons may rely on Hooper even more. Even though San Francisco presents a difficult matchup on paper, they did just give up two touchdowns to Jared Cook and one to Josh Hill this past Sunday. Hooper leads all tight ends with a 13.1 FDFP average and has been in double-figures in eight of his 10 games this season. I like his discount this week as he is only the seventh most-expensive tight end on the slate.

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Jamy Bechler is a regular contributor to FantasyPros for NBA, NFL, and PGA. You can follow him on his DFS twitter @WinningDFS101. When he is not playing DFS, Jamy is an author, host of the “Success is a Choice” podcast, and a leadership consultant, working with businesses and teams across the country (including the NBA). Even though he offers his advice on players and contests, after additional information and consideration, he may end up using different players and strategies than what he recommended in this article.

 

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