Experimenting and testing different strategies is vital for fantasy football draft success. No matter how much preparation you do before your official drafts, gaining exposure to various options and results to better predict your ultimate outcome with every selection is unparalleled. The ability to rapidly “simulate” your leagues’ drafts – especially if you already know your draft position – can help you identify a best-case strategy and alternatives in case – and when – your drafts do not go as planned. The ability to adapt and react fluidly and confidently is one of the most important intangible traits you can have during your draft.
As such, by utilizing our Mock Draft Simulator, you quickly and efficiently test out various strategies and get a feel for various rankings and average draft positions (ADPs). Perhaps you had a middle-round draft slot, where it is not particularly clear whether you should take a top RB or WR. The simulator allows you to test both strategies and provide a reasonable result for how your team may end up. With all this uncertainty, let us explore how I would handle drafting from a middle-round pick.
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Strategy
With a middle-round draft slot, there is hardly a predominant strategy, unlike drafting within the top three or four picks where you can take whichever top RB you desire. Generally, you can either take the top of the second-tier RBs with a middle pick or one of the top two WRs. Going into 2020, I am ideally focusing on RBs early and hitting WRs hard in the mid-to-late round picks. However, we cannot be rigid if RBs on the board do not present adequate value given their risks.
The Mock Draft
Roster: 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1FLX/6BN
12-Team, HPPR, Snake Format, 7th Position
Round 1.07 – Davante Adams (WR – GB)
As alluded to previously, a mid-first-round slot rarely presents a predetermined best scenario for your pick. Since I am mocking with HPPR and three WR settings, the increased value of receivers clouds the decision even further. However, I often find myself trying to minimize risk in the first round considering that virtually all the pertinent players already maintain elite upsides. For this reason, I selected Adams because he should easily see at least 150 targets with immense TD potential. This was a tough choice considering RB dominance in fantasy football, and it was difficult to pass on Clyde Edwards-Helaire with this pick.
Other Players Considered: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Derrick Henry
Round 2.06 – Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)
After selecting a WR with my first, I knew I had to draft an RB in the second round, otherwise, I would risk losing out on many of the top players at the most important fantasy position. As such, I chose Miles Sanders, though Josh Jacobs was a close runner-up, because of his elite performance down the stretch last year and the critical fact that the Eagles have yet to sign a veteran RB. Barring substantial changes in the Eagles backfield, I will be targeting Sanders heavily in the second round if he is available.
Other Players Considered: Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler
Round 3.07 – JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – PIT)
With a balanced roster so far after two rounds, I am back to considering WRs if a significant value were to present itself. Luckily, JuJu Smith-Schuster fell, and without a spotless RB remaining on the board, the choice was easy. Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, and Amari Cooper were appealing, however, Smith-Schuster’s elite upside at such a young age with a Hall of Fame-caliber QB returning presents an unrivaled opportunity in the third round. If JuJu were unavailable, I would probably have leaned toward selecting Gurley and beefing up my RB corps.
Other Players Considered: Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Amari Cooper, D.J. Moore
Round 4.06 – Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN)
Two straight rounds in a row where my choice was relatively easy. I did not expect Melvin Gordon to last until the fourth round, but this is the value of mock drafting. Normally, I would have drafted James Conner or a WR (ideally Robert Woods, Calvin Ridley, or A.J. Brown) with this pick; however, Gordon is one the final workhorse RB remaining before the position starts thinning out throughout the middle rounds of the draft. Due to the positional scarcity, especially considering I already have two great WRs on my squad, Gordon is the easy pick.
Other Players Considered: James Conner, Tyler Lockett
Round 5.07 – Mark Ingram II (RB – BAL)
After my last two picks, I faced a tough choice between a few high-upside but very questionable RBs and similarly defined WRs. I opted for Mark Ingram II due to his presence on an elite rushing offense with one of the most uniquely talented QBs we have seen in the NFL. Although the selection of J.K. Dobbins scares me a bit, I believe the risk is already baked into Ingram’s cost and his ADP is warranted. Considering the alternatives, namely Stefon Diggs, Raheem Mostert, or Darren Waller, the value of a seemingly stable option at a critical position won me over.
Other Players Considered: Stefon Diggs, Raheem Mostert, Darren Waller
Round 6.06 – Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE)
This pick is simply because Kareem Hunt is one of my must-have players in every draft. Although his ADP is a bit high considering he is the “second” rushing option in a platooned backfield, he performed extremely well last year and offers a stable RB2 floor in PPR leagues. Furthermore, if Nick Chubb were to miss time, Hunt would immediately leap to a top three-to-five option every week in a run-heavy offense. Had I selected Diggs or Waller in the prior round, and Hunt was sniped before me, I would have probably opted for the talented and incredibly fast Marquise Brown with this pick to complement Adams and Smith-Schuster. Ultimately, I am very happy with my team thus far, as I have immense RB upside and depth, with many appealing WRs still on the board.
Other Players Considered: Marquise Brown, Jarvis Landry
Round 7.07 – Kyler Murray (QB – ARI)
I am a major proponent of waiting until the last few rounds for a QB and would have preferred to take a WR with this pick; perhaps someone like Brandin Cooks or Marvin Jones. However, because I opted to incorporate the new simulator feature that allows me to draft against Mike Tagliere, Kyle Yates, and Dan Harris, there is an increased demand for skill positions and less-than-stellar value at WR presented to me. Instead of reaching for the likes of Ronald Jones II or Christian Kirk, I selected the dual-threat QB whose team stole one of the best WRs in the league in one of the most one-sided trades in (recent) NFL history. Give me Kyler Murray with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins in this hyped offense.
Other Players Considered: Ronald Jones II, Christian Kirk
Round 8.06 – Jamison Crowder (WR – NYJ)
Sometimes you must take the unsexy pick that simply presents value. After looking at the mock draft simulator’s predictor tool, I was comfortable waiting on RB – most notably Tevin Coleman, who only had a 29% chance of being selected before my next pick – in lieu of the primary receiving option for the Jets, Jamison Crowder. Jordan Howard would be appealing if I were a bit weaker at RB, but with greater need remaining in my WR3 slot, Crowder seemed like the right choice. Additionally, this is the time at which I start heavily considering drafting a TE if I was unable to grab one of the top five options earlier in the draft.
Other Players Considered: Jordan Howard, Mike Williams, Hayden Hurst
Round 9.07 – Darrell Henderson (RB – LAR)
Unfortunately, Coleman was drafted before this pick, so I was forced to scramble a bit. However, there were still several appealing players on the board, and I have recently been targeting cheaper options in murky backfields for my mid-to-late round RB picks. For this reason, I generally avoid handcuffs – especially if the lead back is on my team – as I try to maximize upside. Therefore, drafting Darrell Henderson was a favorable choice as he has come at a relatively cheap price but offers great upside if he were able to fill Gurley’s void and “usurp” the recently drafted Cam Akers as the lead back for the Rams. Additionally, if Henderson fails to prove himself within the first couple of weeks, there would be little risk to dropping him for a top waiver-wire option, whereas selecting someone like Latavius Murray would force me to hold him for the lone possibility of Alvin Kamara going down.
Other Players Considered: Marlon Mack, Mecole Hardman, Hayden Hurst, Golden Tate
Round 10.06 – Hayden Hurst (TE – ATL)
Although I would have hoped for Hardman to have fallen to me here to be my fourth WR, waiting on TE proved to be a successful strategy, as Hurst dropped. I considered selecting Golden Tate here, as he is one of my favorite later-round targets when I left WR relatively untouched. Nonetheless, Hurst offers nice value in the 10th round, especially considering the Falcons actively traded for him following the departure of Austin Hooper – who was the top TE in fantasy last year before getting injured. Although I think Hooper’s performance last season was a bit of mirage and do not expect Hurst to produce quite as effectively, I think a top-five finish is easily within the realm of possibilities for him.
Other Players Considered: Golden Tate, Jalen Reagor
Round 11.07 – Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
With only a few non-handcuff RBs remaining, I opted for the recently hyped Antonio Gibson as my sixth RB. Once again, I was torn between a RB and a WR, namely Curtis Samuel, Sammy Watkins, and N’Keal Harry, but the pick predictor tool noted that there was a much greater likelihood of the WRs remaining for my next pick if I selected Gibson here.
Other Players Considered: Curtis Samuel, Sammy Watkins, N’Keal Harry, Chase Edmonds
Round 12.06 – N’Keal Harry (WR – NE)
Looks like my patience was rewarded, as both Samuel and Harry remained from my last pick. Although it was tough choosing between the two, I opted for the receiver who was a first-round selection last year and should have less competition for targets. On a side note, had I not drafted Crowder earlier and instead had someone like Marquise Brown, Brandin Cooks, or Marvin Jones as my WR3, I would have been very attracted to picking Breshad Perriman here.
Other Players Considered: Curtis Samuel, Allen Lazard
Round 13.07 – DeSean Jackson (WR – PHI)
As I expected by focusing heavily on RBs early, I am now scooping up high-upside WRs to round out my team. There is hardly a bigger boom player than DeSean Jackson and if he turns it up early in the year, just like he did last season before getting injured, I may have found the needle in the haystack. Had I not selected Davante Adams with my first pick, I would have been more open to taking Allen Lazard with this pick as I think he has a great opportunity to fill in as the Packers’ second WR this year.
Round 14.06 – T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET)
In the final round of the draft, there is no reason to be conservative. Take whomever you think offers the most upside, as there is a high likelihood that you will be dropping him within the first few weeks anyway. As such, I drafted T.J. Hockenson, even though I rarely select two TEs in drafts. My thoughts: he displayed high-end performance from the get-go last season before fading into obscurity and getting injured. Since I have a minor investment in the TE position already, I might as well aim for upside in the case that Hockenson turns out to be the next George Kittle. If Lazard or James Washington were to have lasted to this pick, I probably would have selected one of them instead of Hockenson.
Other Players Considered: Noah Fant, Giovani Bernard, Russell Gage
Results
Although draft grades are not everything when mock drafting, I was excited to see my A- (91 out of 100) grade for this draft. I think that the simulator effectively reflects the increased importance of the RB position and this draft allotted several early opportunities for me to enhance that position. I would have liked to retain a better WR corps, but the draft did not fall that way and I did not want to reach for an incredibly deep position. I barely missed out on Will Fuller and Marvin Jones in the seventh, which would have enhanced my team overall.
Nonetheless, I am happy with the outcome of this draft but am eager to get into another mock and try out going RB first or perhaps take one of the top TE options in the fourth or fifth.
Full Draft Board
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Jared Lese is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jared, check out his archive and follow him @JaredL_FF.
