Gamers in season-long leagues are bemoaning six teams on bye this week. However, that’s not a concern in daily fantasy. Below, I analyze all 10 games on the main slate.
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Week 7 Matchups
Game: Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Spread: CAR -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Panthers Analysis: The Panthers are scuffling. However, D.J. Moore remains an attractive daily fantasy option. According to Pro-Football-Reference, he ranks tied for third in targets (63), tied for eighth in receptions per game (6.7), and seventh in receiving yards per game (85.5). Additionally, he ranks seventh in target share (23.5%), per Sports Info Solutions. Finally, the matchup is a plus for him. According to Football Outsiders, the Giants are 22nd in pass defense Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Further, they're woeful defending receivers, yielding the fourth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points to them, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Giants Analysis: The Giants are banged up. However, Sterling Shepard returned last week. Coupled with Kadarius Toney's early injury-related exit, the slot maven reprised his role as a target hog. Shepard was targeted 14 times, converting 10 into receptions for 76 scoreless yards. This year, he's fourth with 7.0 receptions and the 18th with 74.8 receiving yards per game. As a result, the sixth-year pro is an underpriced option, namely on DraftKings, where he'll receive a full point per reception.
Saquon Barkley is nursing an ankle injury, and I'm operating under the assumption he'll be out again this week. If he is, Devontae Booker profiles as a feature back. Filling in for Barkley last week, Booker played 40 passing snaps and ran 30 routes, smashing Elijhaa Penny's marks of only 11 and nine. As a pass-catcher, he reeled in all four of his targets for 28 yards. Further, he toted the rock 12 times for 41 yards compared to Penny's three carries for 15 yards. Thus, even in a blowout, Booker touched the ball 16 times for 69 yards. This game projects to be much closer, so Booker might flirt with 20 touches, making him a defensible bargain option at running back.
Finally, the Giants are a punt-worthy defense. Sam Darnold has come crashing back to Earth, throwing six interceptions and taking 12 sacks in his last three games. Also, he's tied for the seventh-highest turnover-worthy play percentage (4.1%), as measured at Pro Football Focus.
Game: New York Jets at New England Patriots
Spread: NE 7.0 Points
Over/Under: 42.5 Points
Jets Analysis: The Jets are coming off of their bye. Nevertheless, I'm not expecting a week off to magically fix a pathetic offense that ranks dead last in scoring (13.4 points per game). They're an easy fade.
Patriots Analysis: If you're not spending for an elite tight end or venturing into the punt tier, you could do worse than using Hunter Henry. He ranks third on the Patriots in targets (28) and receiving yards per game (40.2), second among healthy players in receptions per game (3.7), and first in touchdowns (three).
However, the Patriots' defense is the most enticing option for gamers willing to commit the requisite cap space for them. Spoiler alert, they're a sweet pivot off the near-certain chalky Cardinals' defense on DraftKings. When the Patriots played the Jets in New Jersey earlier this year, they held the hosts to only 336 total yards of offense, forcing four turnovers and sacking Zach Wilson four times.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
Spread: KC -5.5 Points
Over/Under: 57.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: For all of the commotion about the Chiefs' lackluster start to the year, their offense is hanging points in bunches, ranking fifth with 30.8 points per game. Patrick Mahomes is humming along, ranking third in passing yards per game (314.5) and first in touchdown passes (18), tacking on 30.7 rushing yards per game and a rushing touchdown for good measure. So, with the Titans dubiously ranking 27th in pass defense DVOA and losing rookie cornerback Caleb Farley to a season-ending torn ACL, there's no reason to expect Mahomes to slow his roll. As a result, he projects to finish as the QB1 in scoring this week.
The top pass-catchers, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have sky-high expectations as well, suffice to say. The speedy Hill ranks ninth in Intended Air Yards (666), helping him post the fourth-most receiving yards per game (98.7) as well as 7.7 receptions per game and five touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Kelce remains the class of the tight end position. He's tied for the position lead in targets (53) and receiving yards per game (78.0), leads in receptions (38) and routes (236), and ranks tied for second with four touchdown receptions. Thus, our lineup optimizer ranks Hill as WR2 and Kelce as TE1 at both daily fantasy providers.
Mecole Hardman's a worthy cheap piece of exposure to this high-flying offense. He's third on the team in routes (195). Further, he's coming off his two highest yardage totals the last two weeks, amassing 144 yards on 13 receptions and one rush. Additionally, the matchup literally couldn't be better with Tennessee permitting the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wideouts, per Pro-Football-Reference.
Finally, Darrel Williams is on a favored team and sported tantalizing usage last week. The 72% snap share he played last week tied for the ninth-highest mark among running backs. In addition, the club leaned on him heavily, feeding him 21 carries for 62 yards and two touchdowns and three receptions on four targets for 27 yards. Unsurprisingly, our lineup optimizer loves him, awarding him a top-three value score among running backs at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Titans Analysis: Tennessee's offense runs through Derrick Henry. As a result, the beastly back leads the NFL in touches (178), scrimmage yards (921), and rushing plus receiving touchdowns (10). He's an unstoppable force, and the Chiefs rank 31st in rush defense DVOA. Therefore, Henry's the top running back on the slate, a cash-game building block, and a player whose GPP ceiling supports eating the chalk to have on your roster.
He's not the only viable option on the Titans in this potential shootout, though. A.J. Brown returned from food poisoning to pick Buffalo's first-ranked pass defense as measured by DVOA for seven receptions and 91 yards on nine targets. The sledding is considerably easier this week against the 31st-ranked pass defense by DVOA.
Game: Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers
Spread: GB -8.5 Points
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Football Team Analysis: Terry McLaurin is a target magnet and air yards stalwart. He's sixth in target share (28.4%) and fourth in Intended Air Yards (726). McLaurin's usage alone makes him a weekly consideration, and with Jaire Alexander out for the Packers, he has a huge matchup advantage this week. To that point, Pro Football Focus awards him a top-10 matchup advantage over the cornerbacks that project to line up across from him.
Beyond McLaurin, J.D. McKissic and Ricky Seals-Jones are integral parts of Washington's passing attack. McKissic might see a slight uptick in carries if Antonio Gibson's injury prevents him from suiting up this week. Still, it's his pass-catching prowess and near double-digit underdog status for the Football Team that fuels my interest in him as a bargain back on DraftKings. However, I'm entirely disinterested in McKissic on FanDuel's half-point PPR format platform.
Yet, I like Seals-Jones at both providers. In his two starts the previous two weeks, Seals-Jones has run the third-most routes (78) among tight ends, compiling 99 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions. While I like him at both sites, there's a sizable difference in how our optimizer views him, awarding him the highest value score at tight end on DraftKings but only the eighth-highest one at FanDuel.
Packers Analysis: Washington's much-ballyhooed defense entering the year has been a disaster this season, ranking 12th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in pass defense DVOA. Davante Adams is the crown jewel of the offense, ranking third in Intended Air Yards (775), tied for first in receptions per game (7.7), and first in receiving yards per game (111.3), and target share (35.5%). There isn't a reason to overthink selecting Adams for your cash game team. Additionally, his upside is through the roof, cementing him as a GPP option too.
I'm not crazy about using Aaron Rodgers, admittedly. He's passed for more than 300 yards only one time this year, falling under 265 in the other five contests. He's also thrown for more than two touchdowns only one time and adds roughly nothing on the ground. Nevertheless, stacking him with Adams is a viable GPP maneuver.
His teammate with the same first name, Aaron Jones, is a more attractive daily fantasy option. Unfortunately, the running back position isn't as deep as usual because of injuries and bye weeks. Still, Jones provides gamers a do-it-all option that has 95 yards from scrimmage or more in five straight games, multiple receptions in every game, and six touchdowns. However, the game's big spread favoring the Packers isn't precisely the boon it might seem to be.
Unfortunately for Jones, the Packers have shown an inclination to involve second-year bruiser AJ Dillon when leading by a wide margin. For example, when the Packers lead by seven points or more this year, Jones has 17 rush attempts for 50 yards, and Dillon has 20 for 94 yards. Thus, I'm filing Dillon's name away as a contrarian dart throw in GPPs.
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
Spread: ATL -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons are greeted out of their bye with the soft matchup. The host Dolphins rank 19th in rush defense DVOA and 26th in pass defense DVOA. Looking at the table above, you'll see the returning Calvin Ridley at the top. He missed the trip to London in Week 5 with a personal issue, preventing him from building on season-highs of 13 targets and 80 yards in Week 4. Unfortunately, he's failed to deliver on preseason expectations. However, he's strung together three straight games with double-digit targets and seven receptions or more. The fourth-year pro's voluminous usage portends well for a blow-up game. I'm not sure how much exposure I'll have to him this week, but I understand why he's an appealing gamble.
In Week 5, we saw what titillating underlying numbers could lead to, as Kyle Pitts turned his high number of routes run and nifty target share into a blow-up game, erupting for a 9-119-1 line on 10 targets. Sure, it's possible he benefited from Ridley's absence. Nonetheless, the hints were there even while Ridley was playing. So, it's unwise to handwave away the performance and assume this was a one-off performance.
Finally, Cordarrelle Patterson is absent from the table by design, and Mike Davis is a risky but intriguing option. However, Patterson's salary has exploded, so I'll need to see his superb efficiency net him a more significant percentage of the pie before using him.
And, maybe I'm foolish, but I'm going back to the well with Davis, even though he's been underwhelming this year. Davis has played 66% of Atlanta's offensive snaps, paces the team in rush attempts (12.4) and rushing yards (40.8) per game. Further, he's averaging 3.6 receptions and 17.6 receiving yards per game while holding a 51-route lead over Patterson with 216 compared to only 75. So this is a get-right spot for Davis.
Dolphins Analysis: Tua Tagovailoa returned from the injured reserve last week. Sure, he wasn't perfect in a cushy matchup with the Jaguars. Still, he picked them apart for 329 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and rushed for 22 yards. Thankfully, the Dirty Birds rank 30th in pass defense DVOA, so he has a golden opportunity for another stellar showing in Miami's extremely pass-happy offense. With a neutral offensive scoring margin, Miami's passing at the highest rate (67%). Tagovailoa's a reasonable option on FanDuel, but I love him as a grossly underpriced quarterback on DraftKings. The lineup optimizer endorses using Tagovailoa at DraftKings, assigning him the fifth-highest value score at the position.
Intuitively, it makes sense a pass-happy offense can support more than one fantasy pass-catching option. And, that's the case for the Dolphins. Rookie Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki are fabulous options. The former popped off for a 10-70-2 line on 13 targets in London, and the latter ripped off an 8-115-0 line on nine targets. DeVante Parker was out and might return this week. Nevertheless, I support using either Waddle and Gesicki as standalone options or in a stack even if Parker returns.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Bengals Analysis: Let's address my significant concerns about this game. First, there is a chance this turns into a slow-paced game that requires uber-efficiency for fantasy value. Unfortunately, the Bengals are the slowest team in situation neutral pace, and the Ravens rank 25th. Second, the game's total of 47.0 points and spread of 6.5 points don't suggest a point-scoring bonanza is on tap.
Regardless, I love the integral pieces of both teams in this game. Joe Mixon headlines the table above. Yet, I view him as a risky, GPP-only option. If the Bengals are in a negative game script for most of the game, talented rookie running back, Chris Evans threatens Mixon's outlook. Still, the veteran ran more routes (19) than the rookie (eight), and both players shined as pass-catchers. If the Bengals keep this game close, Mixon benefits from running behind an offensive line that Football Outsiders ranks sixth in Adjusted Line Yards.
My favorite options from the Bengals are Joe Burrow and supremely talented rookie Ja'Marr Chase. Burrow's averaging 300 passing yards per game over the last three games, as the Bengals have flipped the switch to a pass-heavy offense. The second-year quarterback has also tossed seen touchdowns in his heater.
Meanwhile, Chase is keeping elite company through his first six games as a pro.
Honestly, do I need to expand beyond Chase is playing at a rookie-year Randy Moss level? I don't think so.
Finally, Tee Higgins is a nifty pivot off of Chase or addition to a Burrow and Chase stack in GPPs. According to our red zone stats, Higgins' three targets, three receptions, and two touchdown receptions in the red zone are the most on the Bengals. Also, he's more than a touchdown-or-bust option with at least five targets and three receptions in all four games he's played this year.
Ravens Analysis: I gushed about the Bengals above. However, it's the high-flying Ravens that are 6.5-point favorites and coming off of a thrashing of the visiting Chargers last week. Thus, I love Baltimore in this game as well. Remarkably, Lamar Jackson ranks 10th in passing yards per game (281.0) and 12th in rushing yards per game (65.3). The dual-threat quarterback is a weekly threat to top the position in scoring. He's locked in and is an excellent selection in all game types.
My favorite of his pass-catchers is stud tight end Mark Andrews. He's tied for the lead in receiving yards (468). Further, he's insanely efficient, recording the second-highest yards per route run (2.44 Y/RR) out of 49 tight ends targeted at least 10 times per Pro Football Focus.
Still, don't sleep on Marquise Brown, whose 2.48 Y/RR is better than Andrews' mark. The speedy third-year receiver leads the Ravens in receiving yards per game (81.0) and receiving touchdowns (five).
Finally, Sammy Watkins hasn't returned to practice. If he's out again this week, I dig rookie Rashod Bateman. Bateman's pro debut last week was promising for his role in the offense. He finished third on the team in routes (22) while tying for the team lead with six targets and tying for second with four receptions.
Game: Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: LAR -15.0 Points
Over/Under: 50.5 Points
Lions Analysis: The Lions are whopping 15-point underdogs. So, you can expect them to play most of this contest in catch-up mode. Thus, their top trio of pass-catchers, D'Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, have projected-volume-based merit for usage. However, I'm not likely to have much or any exposure to Hockenson and St. Brown since their touchdown equity is lacking on a team with an ugly implied total of only 17.75 points.
Swift, on the other hand, is underpriced on DraftKings. He's a garbage-time superstar that derives most of his value from receiving. Among running backs this year, he ranks second in routes (167) and targets (40) and tied for first in receptions (34) and receiving yards (295). The second-year back even chips in 35.7 rushing yards per game. Revisiting his salary and value on DraftKings, our projections label him the best value at running back.
Rams Analysis: The Rams' table is jam-packed with fantasy options. And, it should be! They have the highest implied total at 32.75 points. The Rams boast a high-powered offense, and the Lions are little more than a speed bump for them to roll over, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in rush defense DVOA.
Obviously, those who travel down the narrative street will point to Matthew Stafford playing his former team for the first time. I could not care less about the first meeting. So instead, I'll point out he's excelling in Sean McVay's offense, averaging 306.3 passing yards per game with 16 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the lopsided spread creates the potential for Stafford to get lifted early in a laugher. Nevertheless, that happened last week, and gamers almost certainly weren't complaining about his 251 passing yards and four touchdowns before the early hook.
Cooper Kupp is the cream of the crop in Los Angeles's passing attack. He ranks third in receiving yards per game (108.8), second in target share (34.0%), tied for first in receptions per game (7.7), and first in touchdown receptions (seven). Finally, Pro Football Focus scores his matchup advantage as the largest among receivers and the cornerbacks projected to defend them.
Now, let's speed through the other pass-catchers. Robert Woods has distanced himself from second-year receiver Van Jefferson for the second option in the passing game. Obviously, he's a stellar option as well, then. However, Jefferson has flashed, so he warrants consideration. Additionally, Tyler Higbee is third on the team in routes (170) and receptions per game (3.7).
The one ancillary pass-catching option I want to call your attention to specifically is DeSean Jackson. Facing off with the Lions is a match made in heaven for D-Jax. According to Sports Info Solutions, he has the deepest average depth of target (22.1) among receivers and tight ends targeted at least 10 times. Meanwhile, the Lions have the highest average explosive pass rate allowed (15%), per Sharp Football Stats. So, I'm going to lean into this matchup-driven pick heavily in GPPs.
Finally, Darrell Henderson Jr. is a workhorse back staked to a commanding favorite spread against a pathetic run defense. Detroit is inept against backs on the ground and through the air, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards (687) and tying for the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (six) to the position this year and coughing up the 12th-most receiving yards (255), and tying for the most receiving touchdowns (six) yielded to running backs. Henderson's played the third-highest percentage of snaps (79%) for his team among all running backs, parlaying his bell-cow role into 98.2 yards from scrimmage and 2.4 receptions per game with five touchdowns. Our projections peg him as RB3 in scoring this week. However, I'm more bullish, viewing him as RB2 behind Henry on the main slate.
Wrapping the Rams' analysis up, as much as I loathe paying a premium for a defense, it's a justifiable GPP move. Defenses are highly volatile, but having one explode can be game-changing, and many gamers join me in loathing spending top-dollar for a defense.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: LV -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 49.0 Points
Eagles Analysis: There's a chance this game is played at a brisk pace. The Eagles are playing at the fourth-fastest situation neutral pace, and the Raiders sit at 14th fastest. Unfortunately, we only have one game in the post-Jon Gruden era to analyze, creating some uncertainty about how the team will operate from now on.
Nevertheless, we know Jalen Hurts is a dual-threat quarterback who piles up points with his arm and legs. The second-year quarterback ranks 19th in passing yards per game (246.7) and tied for 27th in rushing yards per game (50.0). Yet, his gaudy combined yards don't tell the whole story, as he's also tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns (five) and has eight touchdown passes on his ledger. As a result, he's a usable option in all game types at both daily sites.
Meanwhile, DeVonta Smith is a bounce-back candidate after disappointing gamers in a favorable layout against the Buccaneers last week. Still, he's the top option by a mile in the passing game, pacing the club in targets (44), receptions per game (4.5), receiving yards per game (57.5), and routes (233). Further, the team traded Zach Ertz, removing the player who ranks second in targets (31) and receptions per game (3.0) from the equation.
Philadelphia trading Ertz might hasten the ascension of Quez Watkins. The speedy second-year receiver was already in the process of overtaking Jalen Reagor in the pecking order. Watkins is the most efficient pass-catcher on the Eagles, leading with 1.98 Y/RR and 19.4 yards per reception. Unfortunately, the Raiders have the third-lowest average explosive pass rate allowed (five percent) this year. However, Watkins' average depth of target has bounced around, so the team might feed him some shorter targets instead of using him exclusively as a field-stretcher. So, I like him as a possible contrarian bargain option on DraftKings, but I'm fading him with too many better alternatives near his salary on FanDuel.
Raiders Analysis: Darren Waller is the only Raider I'm interested in using, despite the offense shining in the first game with new head coach Rich Bisaccia. The Raiders aren't the only club that limits explosive pass plays this year. In fact, the Eagles have done a better job of it this year, sporting the second-lowest average explosive pass rate (five percent). Thus, as good as second-year speedster Henry Ruggs III has played, it's a poor matchup for him this week. However, this sets up nicely for Waller's moderate average depth of target of 10.3 yards downfield for the year and 10.0 yards last week.
Game: Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: ARI -17.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.5 Points
Texans Analysis: Brandin Cooks is admittedly a target hog. Unfortunately, his touchdown upside is limited tied to a putrid offense with an implied total of 15.0 points. So, I can't justify paying his salary. Instead, I'm eyeing Nico Collins as a punt on DraftKings. In his return last week, he ranked third on the team with 30 routes, commanding six targets for four receptions and 44 receiving yards. As three-score underdogs, the Texans are almost certainly going to have to air it out and play catch up. So, consider taking a chance on the big rookie wideout if you're hunting for salary relief.
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals have a massive implied total of 32.5 points. However, the large spread lends to a risk they take the air out of the ball and salt the game away. If that happens, then James Conner can pay off as the between-the-tackles clock-killer. Further, he's their goal-line back, handling seven carries and scoring five touchdowns from the five-yard line or closer to scoring compared to only one scoreless carry for Chase Edmonds.
As for Edmonds, he's caught three or more passes in all six games, reaching at least 50 yards from scrimmage five times. The receiving back's skill-set is a better fit for DraftKings. Therefore, I'm disinterested in using him on FanDuel.
Then, there's the high-flying passing attack spearheaded by Kyler Murray. Murray is a high-upside selection that profiles as a GPP-only option due to the projected lopsided score. DeAndre Hopkins, even with a drastically reduced target share this year (29.3% in 2020 and 18.6% in 2021), is a high-upside option as a stacking partner, leading the team with 61.2 receiving yards per game and six touchdowns.
Behind Nuk, I prefer A.J. Green over slot wideouts, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore. The slot duo threatens one another's workload, while Green operates on the perimeter unfettered by competition for the gig opposite Nuk. However, all have merit for stacking with Murray in GPPs.
Finally, I teased the defense's inclusion above. They're hands down the top option on DraftKings. On FanDuel, they're only a GPP option. They're huge favorites at home, setting up a chance to pin their ears back and get after rookie Davis Mills in predictable passing situations.
Game: Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: TB -12.5 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Bears Analysis: I would generally hop all over the back with Khalil Herbert's role. Last week, he was an every-down back. But, unfortunately, the Bucs rank fifth in rush defense DVOA. Further, teams actively avoid running against them. Also, even if the Bears buck that trend and attempt to establish the run, the enormous spread suggests Chicago will be forced to lean on the rookie quarterback, Justin Fields. With Fields starting in the last four games, the Bears have surpassed 300 total yards of offense only one time with 373 against the hapless Lions. Thus, this is a low-functioning offense that's best avoided for daily fantasy.
Buccaneers Analysis: Huge spreads featuring giant favorites with gaudy implied totals is a running theme this week, so it's only fitting to close this piece with the 12.5-point favored Bucs and their implied total of 29.75 points. I jammed Tampa Bay's table full with options, as I did when discussing others that fit that bill above, such as the Rams and Cardinals. Reiterating what I mentioned with them, you want exposure to high implied totals.
Unfortunately, the enormous spread creates the same risk for Tom Brady and the passing game as I cautioned with the Rams and Cardinals. However, circumstances aren't identical to the other two NFC juggernauts. The Bucs are passing at the highest rate (63%) when leading by seven points or more this year. So, Brady and Co. are less risky than their huge-favorite peers. Our lineup optimizer supports using Brady, ranking him as QB4 at both providers, awarding him the fourth-highest value score at DraftKings and second-highest value score at FanDuel as well.
The stacking options with Brady are plentiful, as Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, and Chris Godwin are all alphas. All three are averaging over five receptions and 68 receiving yards or more per game. Perhaps surprisingly, Brown's been the most productive of the three. Unfortunately, Brown hasn't participated in practice this week, casting doubt on his playing status for Week 7. If he suits up, he's a usable option. However, Evans and Godwin get massive value upgrades with one less mouth to feed if he's out. Regardless, they're usable options as standalone plays or stacking partners with Brady even if Brown plays.
Also, Leonard Fournette has distanced himself from the running back committee for the Bucs. Even with Giovani Bernard back the last two weeks, Fournette's run 47 routes to only 18 for the pass-catching specialist. He's also toted the rock 34 times for 148 yards and three touchdowns compared to only 10 carries for 41 scoreless yards for Ronald Jones. So he's now game-script proof. Still, the game script should be good for him to pile up rushing yards behind an offensive line ranked third in Adjusted Line Yards.
Finally, the defense has a high ceiling. I'm not crazy about spending $4,000 to use them on DraftKings when I can save $900 using the Cardinals as bigger favorites. Still, that's almost certainly the consensus vibe, increasing their GPP viability against a quarterback who's taken 16 sacks with two interceptions in four starts. In addition, their $4,400 salary on FanDuel is more palatable relative to other top options.
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