What are the advantages and disadvantages of this draft spot?
The advantage of drafting from the 1.11 spot, similar to 1.10, is that the talent pool doesn’t drop off by a significant margin as we land on 1.11. Everybody will have their own tiers and they’re far from a consensus after we get past Jonathan Taylor at 1.01. It’s also advantageous to know that you will select again three picks later. You can view the picks as a pair and strategize around who you believe will go in between.
The disadvantage to this spot is that you must play the board as it falls rather than being in control. That especially comes into play as it gets tougher to find a top-level RB the deeper the draft gets. Picking from a smaller group of worthy first-round players is less than ideal.
Do you have a certain strategy when picking at 1.11 in 2022?
The overall strategy doesn’t shift much from 1.10 with the anchor RB strategy, but it becomes tougher to execute in this spot. As we get closer to the second round, however, you can reverse engineer the picks. Consider who will be available and who you want to take at 2.03 and strategize around the two picks together.
It remains imperative to select a running back in the first two rounds. Even if you believe in the talent of the running backs going later, as I do with J.K. Dobbins, the odds of hitting on a running back in that range are far less likely. Although I believe this group of dead zone running backs are stronger than in years past, they all have question marks. On top of that, the pressure mounts to fill in the RB2 and RB3 spots because you’re not as strong at the top, which can ultimately lead to reaching on a player. More importantly is the opportunity cost of missing out on the potential breakout wide receivers in that range, as we saw with Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase last season.
With those things in mind, I like to think about possible targets down the line in an attempt to reverse engineer my draft. We can’t predict how every pick will play out, but if we look at the board as tiers, we can feel good about certain position groups in different ranges of the draft.
Who are the first-round targets in this spot, and what’s the order of preference?
My preference remains to take an anchor RB in the first round, and either stack them with another RB or look at TE in the second round. As noted above, that’s not always possible as we near the end of the first round. Joe Mixon remains my top choice, as would another RB if they were to fall, but I don’t recommend reaching on a player who should be going in the second round in an attempt to implement the anchor RB. Especially when you’ve got another pick coming up at 2.03.
If Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris and the rest of the top running backs are gone, I would look for Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase. The list of running backs and those three wide receivers make up 10 names, so if they’re all off the board, I would then look to Travis Kelce. Although it’s a bit early for him, the advantage of playing with a TE who posts elite WR numbers is too great to ignore. Looking ahead, if we make RB a priority in the first two rounds but take a WR in round one, we will miss out on Kelce and Andrews in round two. I don’t have a problem getting ahead of that and taking Kelce, who could see his highest target total this season, in round one.
I also like Stefon Diggs in this spot ahead of players like Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel and so on.
Is there anyone you’re avoiding who might be available to you in the first round?
There’s nobody in this range that I’m avoiding, but I strongly advise not to reach too far on ADP with this pick. As they say, you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it there. I support the idea of going to get your guy, but ADP can be a resource because it’s built by the community of sharp drafters. Even if the player you reach on has a good season, you are losing the opportunity cost of getting a better player and the value you would get if you had drafted this player in the next round.
As much as I like the idea of grabbing an anchor RB in the first round, I would stop short of selecting D’Andre Swift here. Like many of the running backs going in the second round, he comes with question marks and shares a backfield. If there were a running back worth reaching for here it would be Leonard Fournette, but you should have the opportunity to draft him in Round 2.
Outside of the running backs, I have some concerns with drafting Davante Adams here. The history of wide receivers switching teams doesn’t bode well for Adams’ fantasy forecast. To be fair, up until the last few seasons it was rare to see a stud WR switch teams. Many expensive WR acquisitions were simply overpaid players unable to capitalize on a bigger role. Still, the sample size is big enough to be cautious about an aging wideout finding his footing in a new offense. Derek Carr was Adams’ college QB, but it’s been nearly a decade since the two connected in the passing game and Adams is approaching 30, the benchmark age for the WR cliff. To be clear, Adams is a tremendous player and I’m not doubting him, but the odds are against a top-three or even top-five finish at the WR position.
What is the plan of attack for Rounds 2-3 based on the possible first-round scenarios?
As we move into the second round, we are nearing the RB dead zone. RBs drafted in Rounds 3-6 very often bust as many of the lead backs are off the board, while WRs in that range often provide extreme value. Last season, the RBs going in this range consisted of Mike Davis, Miles Sanders and Myles Gaskin, among others, while this range featured WRs like Cooper Kupp and Ja’Marr Chase. To further illustrate the point, Kupp and Chase combined for just over 744 PPR points while Davis and Gaskin combined for 311.8. There have been successful RBs to come from the dead zone, of course, and this is an extreme example plucked from last season, but it’s essential to reel in a running back before trying to fish one out in a small pond like the dead zone. Especially when there are potential sharks like Chase and Kupp swimming in the pond.
Heading into the second round with a top-shelf running back already on the roster opens many doors, like going with a TE at 2.02. As was the case with drafting from the 1.10 spot, I love the pairing of Joe Mixon and Travis Kelce.
If we were unable to nab Mixon, or another top back and drafted Kelce or a WR instead, then I’m very happy with Nick Chubb or Leonard Fournette here. We all know how talented Chubb is and he very well may run wild this year. Fournette is the only RB left who is a borderline workhorse in an elite offense. You rarely find those in the second round, especially when they’re coming off an RB6 finish in PPG.
If we have yet to draft a TE, Kyle Pitts is a smash pick at 3.11. Touchdown numbers typically aren’t very sticky, and if he crossed the goal line just a few times last year we’d be talking about a historic rookie season. The Falcons offense may still struggle to find reservations for six, but I expect an emphasis on providing opportunities for Pitts when they get in range.
Unless we are taking Pitts here, I like to start stacking wide receivers in this range and there will be an abundance of quality options to choose from. Keenan Allen or Mike Evans would be the dream scenario here, but if they are unavailable, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman and Terry McLaurin would top my board in order.
I would also consider Jaylen Waddle and DJ Moore ahead of DK Metcalf and Diontae Johnson, but you get the point. There’s a surplus of WR talent going in this range.
Who are some targets in Rounds 4-7?
With momentum on the WR position, I’m not ready to slow down just yet. We don’t need to chase the next Cooper Kupp or Ja’Marr Chase here, but it’s important to consider which wide receivers have the potential to find their own breakout season and give you WR1 production.
Michael Pittman and Jaylen Waddle are a couple of my favorites. Both are young, ascending players who have the look of breakout players. Pittman will see an upgrade at QB while Waddle gets a genius running the Dolphins offense. You can read more of my thoughts on Waddle here, but this is the prototype we are seeking in the middle rounds.
Courtland Sutton and Mike Williams are a couple more wide receivers I’m eyeing as we roll into the fifth, but their current ADP suggests they may not be available. Allen Robinson and Marquise Brown are a few of my next targets after Sutton and Williams.
If tight end is still lingering as a need, the sixth round is a prime spot to land Dalton Schultz. I prefer Schultz to Dallas Goedert, who is going slightly later, due to the offense and opportunities.
It’s fair to consider filling the RB2 hole at this point, but I much prefer the other players going off the board to running backs like Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary. Kyler Murray is lurking around as a fifth-round pick, and I’m fine taking him there if you’ve already begun to load up on wide receivers. If we skip Kyler, I love the value of Jalen Hurts and Russell Wilson at the end of round six. We might finally get to see Russ with his toque ready to cook in Denver, and he’s not short on offensive weaponry. The Eagles seem to be committed to an uptick in the passing game, where I believe Hurts is underrated. If he can start clicking with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith through the air and combine it with his ability to torch defenses on the ground, he has overall QB1 upside.
Elijah Moore is a prime breakout candidate and my favorite pick of the seventh round if you can get him there. Even beyond Moore, I still have eyes for the WR position here. Rashod Bateman, DeVonta Smith, Gabriel Davis and Adam Thielen are names to monitor. Smith will play a big part in Hurts’ success while Thielen was the WR16 in PPG last season. And if Davis is a consistent piece of Josh Allen‘s offense, he should pay off at this price tag.
I like both AJ Dillon and Kareem Hunt in this range, especially if we still need to fill the RB2 spot, but I much prefer them in the seventh round than I do the fifth round. The WR talent in this range is deeper than I can ever remember and I don’t want to miss out on it.
After seven rounds, which positions do you expect to be areas of strength for you, and which positions will you still need to address?
At this point, WR should be a position of strength, loaded with depth and full of upside. I love attacking the position in the middle rounds because of that upside, but also because the RB position becomes a value again as we get past the seventh round. Finding value and inefficiencies in the market is what the draft is all about, and if you were able to find the WR values in the middle rounds, it’s time to roll up your sleeves and add some RB depth here.
Rhamondre Stevenson is one of my favorite targets in this range because we saw the talent flash last year, but he also has multiple avenues for fantasy production. We know Bill Belichick is hardly committed to a starting running back in any given season, and with reports that he will have a larger role in coaching the offense, you can bet they will lean on the running game. Stevenson carried the ball 25 times through the first eight weeks last season and 108 times in the last nine weeks, producing multiple 100-yard games through the latter stretch. He also showed well as a capable pass catcher, and with James White returning from a lengthy hip recovery, we could see a bump in that department as well.
Isaiah Spiller and Dameon Pierce are intriguing rookies that have major upside in their respective offenses. Gus Edwards should have a sizeable role in the Ravens’ run-heavy offense and Alexander Mattison is the best bet for a few big games as a replacement runner behind the starter. Even Ronald Jones could resurrect his career in Kansas City with Andy Reid claiming that he will play a big role.
Ultimately, you knew we weren’t going to get out of here without one more WR, right? Kadarius Toney is my favorite value in the draft this season. Going as WR47 in the 10th round is criminal but we should be happy to snag him here as we will be the ones getting away with theft. Toney finished his rookie season 17th in yards per route run, seventh in targets per route run and sixth in targets per snap. He checks all the boxes of the next big breakout WR.
This is where league winners come from. If you’ve built your roster up and structured it the right way, you won’t need these players to carry you through the first portion of the season, but they can pay off mightily down the stretch.
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Chad Workman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from him, check out his Twitter at @tweetsbychad.
