Running back is often the position that has the most significant impact on fantasy football seasons. Whether it’s from the elite running backs at the top of the draft hitting their ceiling outcomes or perhaps even failing miserably, maybe it’s down to the late-round running backs returning greatly on minor investments.
One thing is for sure, getting your picks right at the running back position makes the rest of your roster far less of a headache.
In this article, we’ll examine the running back by committee (RBBC) approaches much of the league looks set to deploy and work out which should be avoided and which provide opportunity in the ambiguity.
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Evaluating Expected RBBCs (2023 Fantasy Football)
Buffalo Bills
With Devin Singletary no longer on the team and Nyheim Hines suffering an unfortunate non-footballing injury, this committee has thinned out a little more than most expected, leaving James Cook fighting only Damien Harris and Latavius Murray for touches. With Harris missing time, Cook has been deemed the clear RB1 in this offense, and while Cook is an explosive player with upside, he only saw 28% of the Bills running back touches in 2022 and lacks the size profile to be an every-down back.
Cook goes at the 85th pick on Sleeper in single QB point per reception (PPR) formats, slightly behind the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking of 80th. Cook might be getting slightly too expensive, but until Harris is healthy, he seems set to have a clear run at a three-down role to at least start the season.
You love to see this from James Cook
pass pro is not passive pic.twitter.com/2lsBzdwhGC
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) August 21, 2023
Miami Dolphins
Two is company, but three is a crowd in running back committees and trying to decipher the Dolphins’ plans is nothing but a headache. Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson have flashed when healthy, but Mostert is 31 years old, and 2022 was the first year Wilson had appeared in more than 11 games due to a litany of injuries. Meanwhile, rookie Devon Achane has a lightning-quick pace but is being treated like a player who might only get a few touches per game, as well as suffering a shoulder injury in the preseason.
Not a great look for a player whose weight and size profile were scrutinized heading into the draft. Average draft position (ADP) has Achane, followed by Mostert and then Wilson, but with Achane ranked over 20 spots lower than his ADP in the expert consensus ranking (ECR), he looks overpriced. Instead, be willing to take shots on Wilson and Mostert, particularly if you need early-season touches while waiting on a player like Javonte Williams or Alvin Kamara.
New England Patriots
Ezekiel Elliot spent many months waiting for a contract to come his way this offseason, and for a one-time superstar, it probably wasn’t the free agency he expected. There is no doubt he could eat into Rhamondre Stevenson‘s work a little more than we’d like, but Stevenson is by far the more talented running back at this juncture in their careers and deserves our respect.
New York Jets
The signing of Dalvin Cook made things far more difficult for fantasy than it needed to be. The addition of Cook reeks of another thing that Aaron Rodgers wanted as he continues to recruit dusty players for his Super Bowl attempt. Breece Hall‘s ADP is a gift, with him dropping to the fifth round of drafts now, and there is still a path to good results for him. Given that in 2022, Hall was the RB8 in PPR points per game, despite having the fewest touches (14.1) of any running back in the top 25 in points per game and five touches less than the average of the top 10 backs.
Jacksonville Jaguars
We can go all the way back to the combine when unprompted, Doug Pederson said the team wanted to add a running back and that they did by selecting Tank Bigsby, who can be a between-the-tackles, ground-and-pound type back that will perfectly complement Travis Etienne, allowing him to save his legs and be more explosive.
Etienne wasn’t drafted by this regime, and when they did move on from James Robinson last season, Etienne went on to be the RB17 between Weeks 8 and 17, averaging just 13.7 PPR points. Now he might stand to lose some of the high-value touches. It makes him a tricky pill to swallow. Drafters might feel happier saving the pick and waiting for Bigsby instead.
Tank Bigsby is really good. Jaguars are going to have a monster 1-2 punch. Doug, please don’t play JaMycal Hasty pic.twitter.com/u666Lb96nB
— Jason Moore (@jasonffl) August 21, 2023
Baltimore Ravens
JK Dobbins has averaged 11 touches per game throughout his injury-hit career, but the tides might be about to turn with Todd Monken taking over the offense. In 2016 and 2017, when Monken was the OC in Tampa, Doug Martin averaged 17.1 touches per game, and in 2018 Peyton Barber averaged 15.9. When Monken was in Cleveland in 2019, Nick Chubb averaged a huge 21.3 touches per game, so he’s not averse to leaning into a talented running back, and we know Dobbins has talent when healthy.
Even during the injury-plagued 2022, we saw Dobbins lead the league in rushing yards between weeks 14-17 with 397, at a rate of 7.0 yards per carry and also led the league in runs of 20 yards or more with seven. Gus Edwards restructured his contract to stay with the team, but all the hype is focused on Justice Hill, who plays on special teams and is a strong pass-catcher. If you’re taking low-value shots on anyone outside of Dobbins, Hill is intriguing.
JK Dobbins (contract bluff, knee) back in practice and looks to be moving well. pic.twitter.com/VqIEVh8RUK
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 15, 2023
Pittsburgh Steelers
It is true that over the years, Mike Tomlin has preferred a single running back to carry the vast majority of the workload, but what Jaylen Warren did in 2022 has likely helped change Tomlin’s mind somewhat and open the Steelers head coach’s eyes to what has become clear to the rest of the NFL, running back committees are the way of the future.
Warren outproduced Harris in yards per carry with 4.8 to Harris’s 3.8 and had 8.3 yards per reception to Harris’s 5.5. Despite having the fifth most rush attempts last year, Harris finished 24th in 10+ yard runs. The simple fact is that in Year 3, teams become less attached to the draft capital attached to players, and Najee Harris needs to produce. If Harris’s value falls to the sixth round, he should be rostered by even the most anti-Najee people, but otherwise, the better play at cost could be the undrafted free agent who has looked like the better player.
Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams’ return ahead of schedule has muddied the early season outcomes for Samaje Perine, but it’s worth remembering that Sean Payton has leaned on two running backs for a number of years, and the team aggressively pursued Perine, matching the offer he had from the Bengals. Williams is a high-ceiling play for late on in the season, but be sure to pair him with reliable production for the early part of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles
Kenneth Gainwell continues to be reported as the lead back, but he doesn’t particularly fit the profile and is more likely to revert to his third-down and hurry-up offense role as the season progresses. Neither D’Andre Swift nor Rashaad Penny has much invested in them and could be frustrating for fantasy purposes as part of this committee approach.
Unless you believe the Eagles are going to throw to running backs more than a league-low 12.1% that they did in 2022, it’s tricky to imagine Swift becoming a value. This might be one offense that’s better to leave the running back room alone.
Kenneth Gainwell leads the Eagles RBs through drills, followed by:
Boston Scott
Trey Sermon
D'Andre Swift
Rashaad Penny
Kennedy BrooksDo with that information what you will.
pic.twitter.com/ANG8XLZhst— Jordan Loupe (@CantALoupe_FF) August 22, 2023
Washington Commanders
Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson continue to split preseason usage 50/50 in what ultimately feels like the right approach for this offense. Brian Robinson did little to wrestle the job away from Gibson in 2022, averaging 3.7 yards per carry to Gibson’s 3.7, but there’s no doubting the upside case for Gibson, who is the more natural pass-catcher and we’ve seen him finish as a top-12 RB in total PPR points in two of the last three seasons. This committee feels like one where you can place your chips on either player, and they’ll have usable weeks, even if it’s not every week.
Atlanta Falcons
Arthur Smith is a fantasy football headache on legs, and it’s possible that continues this year. You don’t draft Bijan Robinson for anything but the ceiling outcomes, though, and they are undeniable for a player of his talent. Both Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, who is fresh off a rookie 1,000-yard season, can be drafted, and Allgeier can be considered a possible flex play until Robinson wrestles control of the job away from him.
New Orleans Saints
As we said with the Dolphins, two is company, but three is a crowd in running back committees. The Saints paid Jamaal Williams enough money that they will be expecting him to have a role, hot on the heels of a 17-touchdown season. Rookie Kendre Miller has had a nice training camp, too, and Alvin Kamara now won’t miss as much time as was once expected. This one feels like a headache with no consistently reliable options. Why let it become your headache?
Green Bay Packers
Between Weeks 2 and 11, Dillon averaged 6.1 PPR points per game and didn’t have a single double-digit performance which made him entirely useless for fantasy football unless you were convinced of his handcuff value. Dillon’s yards per carry, missed tackles forced percentage, rushing expected points added (EPA) and fantasy points per touch all hit career lows as it became clear Aaron Jones was still the lead back. Dillon might be younger than Jones, who is 28 years old, but he doesn’t seem to have any more juice.
With a very good-looking offensive line, some of those worries are assuaged, but the Packers RBs shouldn’t be must-draft targets for anyone.
We’re heading into Year 4 and I feel like I’ve rarely seen AJ Dillon punish people as a ball carrier. pic.twitter.com/cXZ8z9qu3Z
— Brandon Carwile (@PackerScribe) August 21, 2023
Chicago Bears
There are signs that Khalil Herbert might be wrestling the control of this committee away from D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson. Herbert has been playing all three downs, reportedly progressed with his pass protection, and the team seems enamored with him. Johnson is an excellent pass-protector who could have had a more impressive college career if he hadn’t been stuck behind Bijan Robinson.
If Foreman gets cut, Johnson will be worth rostering in all formats. For now, though, Herbert is the clear lead back and should be drafted everywhere for his role on a run-first team.
Detroit Lions
This one doesn’t need to be overly complicated. Jahmyr Gibbs will have a role that the Lions hoped D’Andre Swift would have, excelling in the pass-catching game and breaking explosive runs, while David Montgomery will replace Jamaal Williams as the ground and pound and goal-line option. Montgomery figures to have a valuable role and comes at a six-round discount on Gibbs, who might be being overvalued.
Seattle Seahawks
Zach Charbonnet was drafted in the same area of the draft that Kenneth Walker was a year previously and is a better pass-catcher and possibly also a more reliable runner than Walker, who was incredibly boom or bust in his rookie campaign. Both these players are fine at the current cost but don’t be surprised if Charbonnet has the better season.
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