The glorious Fantasy Football season is upon us once more, as season-long drafts are by now commencing worldwide. As of this writing, we are exactly 16 short days away from kickoff between Kansas City and Detroit to kick off another exciting campaign. With so much overwhelming fantasy analysis and opinion out there, now is the time to dial in to get as much of an edge as possible in your pending drafts.
In this predictive article, I will be touting who I believe will finish as the Top-12 WRs in Fantasy Football, top to bottom, for 2023. These rankings are assuming half-point-per-reception scoring with no added bonuses or caveats. Just a good ole fashioned redraft scoring system. So, without any more fluff, in a sequential order from my top guy to my 12th, let’s hop right in.
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WR1 Predictions (2023 Fantasy Football)
Justin Jefferson (MIN)
The top few choices for compiling wide receiver ranks for 2023 can be considered somewhat obvious, but there is truly no more obvious choice than Jefferson for the WR1 overall spot. There is actually no player in the NFL that should be drafted ahead of Jefferson in any format, as he is the consensus 1.01 on sites across the board. This feat is for good reason – no receiver in football has been more impressive than Justin Jefferson since he entered the NFL back in 2020.
Just last season, Jefferson led the NFL in receiving yards (1809) and posted a career-high in receptions (128) while breaking both Vikings’ all-time records for those respective categories. The 24-year-old, arguably yet to even reach his prime, has collected at least 1400 receiving yards and seven scores in each of his first three campaigns. This has equated to three consecutive Pro Bowl appearances to kick off his illustrious career.
The Vikings’ offense has a chance to be even faster paced in 2023, and, while they gained a new rookie receiver in Jordan Addison, they lost their featured running back Dalvin Cook this offseason. There will be targets galore for Jefferson in what is already a condensed offense around him. He could push for 200 targets this season, which would top his already ridiculous 184 from last season. Don’t get cute this season if you are on the clock first, select Jefferson and don’t think twice.
Ja’Maar Chase (CIN)
Fantasy analysts love to break down wide receivers into “tiers,” and while I think this is a pointless concept to a degree, I would have to agree that Chase belongs in his own tier with Jefferson above everyone else. The closest man to possessing similar talent and production to Minnesota’s finest, Ja’Maar Chase will be looking to build off an impressive first two seasons in the NFL.
In 2022, Chase finished with an 87-1046-9 receiving line across just 12 games. That is actually six more catches than in his rookie year when he appeared in five more outings and won the Offensive Rookie of the Year. That statistical output should have Chase owners salivating at the mouth for what could be coming in 2023.
Clearly QB Joe Burrow‘s top option and target on any given play, Chase is in line to set career marks across the board this season. I am selecting him at the 1.02 regardless of draft format, and I have him pretty significantly above the next best wide receiver, as well as RB Christian McCaffrey.
Cooper Kupp (LAR)
Now that the two “obvious” top guys are out of the way, we can have a little more fun with the rest of this list, as it is not as static. I envision a huge bounce-back year from Cooper Kupp following an injury-plagued campaign in 2022.
As most know, Kupp was an alien just two short seasons ago, in which he compiled 1947 yards and 16 touchdowns on 145 catches (all NFL season highs). While he finished in third, there was a legitimate case for Kupp to be the NFL MVP in 2021, which would have made him the first wide receiver to do so in the history of the NFL and the first non-quarterback to accomplish the feat since Adrian Peterson in 2008.
Assuming health for 2023, and as predicting injuries is impossible in fantasy sports, I will assume health, Kupp should return as the target machine he has been his entire career. The Los Angeles Rams’ defense is set to stink once again this season, and their offense will be tasked with throwing early and often. QB Matthew Stafford is healthy himself, and he will look to rekindle his impressive rapport with Cooper Kupp the second Week 1 kicks off. Kupp has the bar-none best chance to finish as the WR1 after the two receivers listed above him.
Tyreek Hill (MIA)
There were questions surrounding Tyreek Hill when he signed with the Dolphins last offseason and whether his statistical output would take a huge step back after leaving QB Patrick Mahomes’ side. Hill answered that question with ease and really shut his critics’ mouths with emphasis.
Not only did Hill not take a step back, but he took a step forward, compiling the most productive season of his career. The 29-year-old set career-highs in both receptions (119) and receiving yards (1710), and he even did so with his starting QB Tua Tagovailoa missing four games.
Despite age rapidly creeping up on Hill, he remains one of the fastest players in the league that can take the top off a defense at any moment. A nice element he added to his bag in 2022 was the ability to also get open on more short and intermediate routes, which helped elevate his catch total. He can certainly be proclaimed as a fully well-rounded threat at this point of his career. He will always have the upside to finish as the WR1 overall in fantasy, and 2023 may actually be his best opportunity yet to do so.
A.J. Brown (PHI)
A.J. Brown broke out in impressive fashion in 2022 after being united with his good friend Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. The sensational dual-threat quarterback helped ascend Brown to sensational status himself, as he finished the campaign with a career-best 88-1496-11 receiving line. Brown is in prime position to add to these numbers, even more so in his fifth professional season.
Firmly in his prime at 26 years old, Brown will operate as the 1A in the Eagles’ offense alongside their 1B receiver in DeVonta Smith. Smith will help alleviate some of the extra defensive attention that Brown would normally see and should keep him in more 1-on-1 situations. The Eagles are also certainly going to regress to the mean in terms of passing the football this season, as their schedule is no cakewalk like it was in 2022.
If Brown can stay healthy as he did last season, he will be a surefire high-echelon WR1 again in 2023. I like him ahead of Stefon Diggs in Buffalo and by a decent margin as of now. I would not hesitate in selecting A.J. Brown right around the 1.06 in fantasy drafts, despite his current ADP being closer to the end of the first round.
Stefon Diggs (BUF)
Stefon Diggs remains a solid, if no longer truly spectacular wide receiver option for fantasy football heading into his ninth professional season. He still has solid upside, as the 29-year-old has surpassed 1000 receiving yards in each of the last five seasons and at least eight touchdowns in five of the last six.
There have been reports that Diggs has wanted out of Buffalo all offseason, but I’m not sure I’m buying it. He is in a great spot as the WR1 in Buffalo, operating with QB Josh Allen within one of the league’s best overall offenses. Diggs is a shoo-in for 100 catches, and his production will always be at worst in the mid-WR1 range. While I am no longer convinced Diggs can finish as the WR1 overall, he is still a great selectable option in the back half of the first round in redraft leagues across the board.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
Pick seven is right around where my beliefs begin to contend with most consensus, and it starts with placing sophomore phenom Garrett Wilson in the WR7 overall hole. I love everything about Garrett Wilson – his route running ability, explosion, and drive, and he is due for a major QB upgrade in 2023.
I won’t even try to compare the passing ability of Aaron Rodgers and Zach Wilson because that would be a major insult to Rodgers. That said, Wilson was already able to post an 83-1103-4 line as a rookie, with a carousel of quarterbacks heaving him the rock in 2022. The step up to Rodgers throwing to him this season will be unparalleled.
Rodgers himself has already touted Wilson’s ability and even gave him a comparison to WR Davante Adams earlier this offseason. That should be about all you need to know regarding Wilson’s receiving talents. He will be featured early and often in New York as the team’s WR1, and he will almost certainly conclude his second campaign as a mid or even high-end WR1 in fantasy football, regardless of format.
Calvin Ridley (JAC)
If you follow or have read any of my previous articles, even just a little bit, you’ll know that I am much higher than the consensus on Calvin Ridley in 2023. I have bets on him to win Comeback Player of the Year, and still believe he has the talent to be a top-five or maybe even top-three wide receiver across the NFL.
Ridley could not have landed in a better spot than Jacksonville, where he will be the featured skill-position player in one of the NFL’s fastest and most efficient offenses. Despite not having played professional football in two full years, all reports this offseason and out of training camp regarding Ridley have been positive, and word on the street is that he has not lost a step.
If you were playing NFL Best Ball earlier this offseason, there was a point where Calvin Ridley could have been selected in the fourth round of drafts. He currently goes in the early second round as of this writing. I am glad to have scooped him up relentlessly back when I could. In season-long leagues, I would not hesitate to reach on the 28-year-old star, even as early as the 2/3 turn in some instances.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
I am not as high as most on CeeDee Lamb heading into the year, and that could certainly come back to bite me. Lamb is coming off a prolific 2022 in which he posted a career-best 107-1359-9 line across 17 games. Now headed into his fourth professional season, Lamb is undoubtedly hitting his stride and prime.
My concerns with Lamb this season come down to some external factors, such as QB Dak Prescott‘s ability, added personnel, and a stellar defense. Prescott, for one, will need to stay healthy and provide better than the 23:15 TD:INT ratio he offered in 2022. The slinger has only thrown for 30-plus touchdowns twice and has reached the 4,000 passing yard threshold twice in his seven-year career. I truly question whether Prescott will ever be able to elevate his game to elite status at this point of his tenure.
Dallas also has a healthy Michael Gallup and added WR Brandin Cooks to the roster for 2023, while they also have a stud running back option in Tony Pollard. There are suddenly more mouths to feed in this offense than there was even one short season ago. In addition, the Cowboys’ defense is regarded in circles as the best in the NFL. Their ability to shut down opposing offenses could just lessen their overall passing attack this season. Let us also not forget they just lost their OC Kellen Moore to the Chargers, and who knows what Mike McCarthy will do with his own play calling in 2023?
Davante Adams (LV)
Most people would scoff at Davante Adams being ranked outside of the top 10 wide receivers, myself included. I will not put him there, as he is more than deserving of the 10-spot after the production he’s maintained the past seven years. The 30-year-old is arguably still the most talented receiver in football, though his fantasy ADP is rightfully deflated due to situation and quarterback play.
With ex-best buddy Derek Carr moving on from the Raiders, Adams will be left with shaky-armed Jimmy Garoppolo as his starting QB in 2023, at least out of the gate. That said, while Garoppolo is no stud NFL quarterback, is he really that much of a downgrade from Carr? The ex-49er has elevated some fantasy receivers of the past, including both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, so who’s to say he cannot do it again? Adams is still within the WR1 range, though at the back end, he will still be a vacuuming target hog as the clear-cut number-one guy in Vegas this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
St. Brown also feels low here, especially after posting career-highs across the board in his second season in Detroit. The 23-year-old will operate as the Lions’ WR1 again in 2023 and has a legitimate shot at leading the NFL in both targets and receptions. St. Browns’ only knock through his first two seasons is his deflated scoring (11 touchdowns), which relegates him to the back end of the WR1 list.
I do believe that St. Brown is due for some positive regression when it comes to scoring, and, despite being ranked this low, he has a chance to finish as a top-five receiver in fantasy. I feel much more comfortable selecting ARSB higher in PPR formats, as his prowess for absorbing targets is well known. Nevertheless, the shifty receiver is still a valiant pick towards the latter half of round one, and you cannot really go wrong with selecting him there.
Jahan Dotson (WAS)
There were numerous options to go with at the number 12 spot, so I decided to get spicy with my take on this one. I understand that I would receive ridiculous backlash for this pick, but I’m sticking to my guns here. In my opinion, the most slept on receiver (and NFL offense) in all of fantasy is second-year Penn Stater, Jahan Dotson.
The 23-year-old was drafted 16th overall in 2022, which goes overlooked far too often. That alone should put more respect on his name than he ever seems to be given. He also scored seven times as a rookie, despite starting in just 10 games and while dealing with some injuries.
I am a believer in the new Commanders offense under OC Eric Bieniemy in 2023, and I am also a believer that Jahan Dotson is outright better than his receiver teammate, Terry McLaurin. QB Sam Howell also looks like he could be a true answer for a Washington offense that has struggled to find a serviceable QB for what feels like the last decade.
My bold prediction is a full-on year-two breakout for Dotson in which he establishes himself as the true WR1 in Washington in impressive fashion. Statistically, this will be enough to vault him into the final WR1 spot in fantasy. He clearly has the talent to do so.
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