Do you ever have a dream that jars you awake? That leaves you screaming. If only for a moment. Drenched in a cold sweat. The what if. What if my fantasy football draft plays out exactly like I want it to in my most important league?
Ya know. The one with the hefty buy-in. The family league where winning means a year-long smack-talk fest with your relatives. The office league where you can dunk on your co-workers weekly.
These are my perfect draft targets for 2025. Make your fantasy football title dreams a reality.
DBro’s Perfect 2025 Fantasy Football Draft
Round 1: Early-Round Players to Target
Last year, Ja’Marr Chase finished as the WR1 in fantasy points per game, crushing the competition. He ranked first in targets (175), red-zone targets (36), total touchdowns (17), receptions (127), receiving yards (1,708) and yards after the catch (787).
If those numbers weren’t enough, Chase also ranked 14th in Yards per route run and 19th in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. It was an extraordinary season, and Chase is in a good position to attempt to match those numbers in 2025.
The Bengals’ defense remains a work in progress, and Joe Burrow will be tossing Chase the rock. Volume and efficiency shouldn’t be a problem for Chase in 2025 in his quest to repeat as the WR1 overall.
Bijan Robinson crushed last year as the RB3 in fantasy points per game. It was a tale of two halves. Atlanta began the season goofing around with his usage before it righted the ship. In Weeks 1-5, Robinson was the RB24 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17 touches and 87.2 total yards. In Weeks 6-18, he was the RB1 in fantasy points per game with 23.4 touches and 120.9 total yards per game.
After Week 5, Robinson saw his route share and target share jump from 54.5% to 60.4% and 10.7% to 13.4%, per Fantasy Points Data. If that usage continues in 2025, Robinson could be the RB1 overall this season. He posted strong tackle-breaking numbers last year, ranking 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt.
If Michael Penix can take this offense to another level, Robinson could be the Fantasy MVP this season.
Justin Jefferson has been the model of consistency. He has never finished lower than WR9 in fantasy points per game since his rookie season, and he’s been inside the top five in this category in each of the last four seasons.
With Sam Darnold at the helm last year, Jefferson was the WR3 in fantasy points per game as he ranked third in target share, fourth in raw target volume, fifth in red-zone targets, and second in receiving yards per game. Jefferson also excelled on a per-route basis, ranking sixth in Yards per route run and 18th in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.
Jefferson still has WR1 overall upside this season if J.J. McCarthy can prove to be an upgrade over Sam Darnold for the Vikings in 2025.
Round 1: Mid-Round Players to Target
Jahmyr Gibbs was awesome last year, finishing as the RB2 in fantasy points per game. The loss of David Montgomery for the final three weeks of the season helped him, but it’s not like Gibbs wasn’t awesome before then. In Weeks 1-15, with Montgomery in the lineup, Gibbs was the RB4 in fantasy points per game (18.9), averaging 16.1 touches and 103 total yards. In Weeks 16-18 (without Montgomery), Gibbs went bonkers with 32.6 fantasy points per game as he decimated opponents with 25.6 touches and 162.4 total yards per game.
I’m not trying to detract from his season, but it helped. In Weeks 1-15, Gibbs still didn’t hold the goal-line or red-zone role on the ground. During that stretch, Montgomery had 25 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line compared to 18 for Gibbs, per Fantasy Points Data. Gibbs will be efficient with whatever workload he’s allotted after he ranked first in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in Yards per route run. He’s a top-three back, no matter how you slice it.
Despite dealing with a shoulder injury for much of the season that limited Dak Prescott to eight games, CeeDee Lamb still finished as the WR8 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 15th in target share (24%), 12th in receiving yards per game (74.6), 16th in Yards per route run (2.36), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.107, per Fantasy Points Data).
With George Pickens added to the offense, a healthy Prescott returning to the huddle, and Lamb back to full strength, he has WR1 overall upside again in 2025.
Christian McCaffrey’s 2024 season was derailed by bilateral Achilles tendonitis. Yes, I know it crushed many fantasy teams. Yes, I know that if you drafted him last year, you’re probably saying, “hell no… I won’t be walking down that road again.” I’ll get this out of the way quickly. I’m back in.
George Kittle had similar issues with his Achilles, but after he received stem cell infusions, it hasn’t remained a problem. McCaffrey had a similar treatment last year and enters this season fully healthy from all reports. In the small sample we got from McCaffrey last year, his numbers remained strong.
In the three full games McCaffrey played, he averaged 18.6 touches and 93.7 total yards, all while playing 81-94% of the snaps. McCaffrey’s 22% missed tackle forced rate and his 1.80 Yards per route run were strong, per Fantasy Points Data. Among those two statistical categories, McCaffrey ranked eighth-best (70 qualifying backs) and sixth-best (53 qualifying backs). McCaffrey has at least one more big season left. I’ll be investing heavily in him for 2025.
Round 1: Late-Round Players to Target
No matter how you slice it, Ashton Jeanty is a top-five back out of the gate. He has a true three-down skillset and should get all the volume he can handle. He’s a tackle-breaking maven. A skill that I have no doubt will translate to the NFL. Across his final two collegiate seasons, Jeanty ranked first and third in yards after contact per attempt and first and second in elusive rating, per PFF.
Las Vegas will feature the run prominently, and Jeanty’s receiving upside gives him an insane ceiling for 2025. During Chip Kelly’s tenure in the NFL, his offenses have never ranked lower than 11th in rushing attempts. Also, in three out of Kelly’s four years as an NFL offensive coordinator, his backfields had a 16.6-17.7% target share, but he also flooded his Philly backfield with targets in 2015 (28.7%). Jeanty could push for near the top end of that range.
In 2023, Jeanty ranked first in receiving grade and second in Yards per route run. Jeanty is primed for a rookie season that could rival Saquon Barkley‘s rookie year.
Breaking news. This just in. Puka Nacua is still really good at football. In the nine games last year he played at least 50% of the snaps, he drew a 34.9% target share, produced 104.9 receiving yards per game, had 3.88 Yards per route run, commanded a 44.6% first-read share, and churned out 0.185 first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.
Among 85 qualifying wide receivers last season, Nacua would have led all wide receivers in each of those statistical categories. He also averaged 21.8 fantasy points per game in that sample, which would have ranked second behind only Ja’Marr Chase. Nacua remains a game-changing pick in drafts this season, who, despite the addition of Davante Adams, still has WR1 overall upside.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a model of consistency as a top-10 fantasy wideout in each of the last three seasons (WR10, WR4, WR4). Talent is fueling this, but back-to-back seasons as a top-five option at wide receiver have also been aided by elite red-zone usage as he has averaged 11.5 receiving touchdowns per season while ranking second and third in red-zone targets.
I don’t see that changing in 2025, so St. Brown could easily be headed for a third consecutive top-five fantasy wideout campaign. Last year, among 85 qualifying wideouts, St. Brown ranked ninth in target share, 13th in receiving yards per game, and fourth in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. St. Brown is one of the safest fantasy football picks you can make.
Nico Collins (WR – HOU)
Nico Collins finished as the WR8 in fantasy points per game last year. He dealt with a hamstring injury that led to five games missed, but when he was on the field, he was awesome. Last year, he had a 23.8% target share with 83.8 receiving yards per game, 2.94 Yards per route run, a 31% first-read share, and 0.140 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data).
Those are outstanding efficiency marks. We got small samples with and without Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs on the field last year with Collins, but their inclusion and absence absolutely impacted him. In Weeks 1-3, with Dell and Diggs, Collins had a 24.1% target share with 112.7 receiving yards per game, 3.10 Yards per route run, a 29.7% first-read share, 0.147 first downs per route run, and 19.3 fantasy points per game. That type of fantasy points per game production would have equaled the WR3 in fantasy last year. In Weeks 16-17 without Dell and Diggs, Collins sustained his volume with a 23.9% target share and 37.1% first-read share, but his production dipped to 59.5 receiving yards per game, 1.78 Yards per route run and 0.090 first downs per route run.
If C.J. Stroud bounces back and Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, and Jaylin Noel help to pull defensive attention away from Collins, he has top-three fantasy wide receiver upside. His floor is a sturdy WR1.
Round 2: Early-Round Players to Target
Overall, last year, Brian Thomas Jr. was a stud as the WR11 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in deep targets and 15th in red-zone targets. As good as those numbers are, they still underrate his upside in 2025 if he can continue what he did down the stretch last year.
In Weeks 13-18 last season, Thomas was the WR2 in fantasy points per game. During that span, among 72 qualifying receivers, he was fourth in target share (31.6%), seventh in Yards per route run (2.78), fifth in receiving yards per game (98.8), and 17th in first downs per route run (0.108, per Fantasy Points Data).
Thomas posted those numbers with Mac Jones tossing him passes. What do we think he’ll do in 2025 with Liam Coen at the controls and Trevor Lawrence back? It could be a magical season for Thomas.
The big dawg keeps eating. Some players are just built differently. I don’t know what else to say regarding Henry. I don’t foresee any slowdown from the Baltimore behemoth. Last year, he nearly rushed for 2,000 yards (1,921) and finished with 18 total touchdowns as the RB4 in fantasy points per game.
Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked third in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 13th in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. Henry is an RB1 until he hangs up the cleats. I won’t bet against King Henry ever again.
Last year, Drake London finally had the true breakout season I’ve been forecasting for him, as he finally got to experience at least average starting quarterback play for much of the season. London finished as the WR13 in fantasy points per game while ranking third in targets (157) and securing 100 receptions. Last year, he ranked fifth in target share, 11th in receiving yards per game, and 12th in Yards per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.
With Michael Penix under center in 2025, London could ascend even further up the fantasy wideout ladder. His splits with Kirk Cousins and Penix were eye-popping. Yes, I know it was only a three-game sample with Penix, but it would still be impressive if London could venture even into the general neighborhood of these numbers across a full season.
With Cousins, London recorded a 24.6% target share with 65.6 receiving yards per game and 2.24 Yards per route run. Those are solid numbers, but they aren’t top-three wideout numbers like he posted with Penix. With Penix chucking him the rock, London saw his target share soar to 39% with 117.3 receiving yards per game and 3.74 Yards per route run.
If London can continue even a watered-down version of those numbers for the entirety of 2025, he could be contending for WR1 overall when it’s all said and done. London is a high-floor and high-ceiling pick for 2025.
De’Von Achane continued his strong RB1 ways last year as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. In his 16 full games played, he averaged 17.3 touches and 92.6 total yards. His otherworldly per-touch efficiency didn’t hold up last year, but that doesn’t mean he was bad.
Among 46 qualifying backs, he was 19th in explosive run rate and missed tackles forced per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. He was a stud in the passing game, sitting at ninth in Yards per route run and second in target share and receiving yards per game. I have plenty of questions about the Dolphins for 2025, but Achane isn’t one of them. He should continue to post RB1 numbers in 2025.
Round 2: Mid-Round Players to Target
Brock Bowers had a legendary rookie season. He finished as the TE3 in fantasy points per game. He logged the most receptions, receiving yards, PPR fantasy points per game, and targets for a rookie tight end ever. Insane, insane production.
Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, he remained stellar, ranking second in target share (23.6%), third in receiving yards per game (70.2), fifth in Yards per route run (2.11), and sixth in first downs per route run (0.108, per Fantasy Points Data).
With more target competition added this offseason with the additions of Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton, we’ll see if Bowers can repeat his historic rookie season production, but I won’t be betting against him with improved quarterback play with Geno Smith now under center. Bowers is worth paying up for in drafts as a difference-making option at a onesie position.
Last year, A.J. Brown still managed to finish as a WR1 (WR12 overall) despite being locked inside a passing offense that finished with the fewest passing attempts in the NFL (448). Brown remains an elite receiving option. He ranked second in target share (31.1%), fifth in receiving yards per game (83), second in Yards per route run (3.22), second in first-read share (42.1%), and second in first downs per route run (0.152, per Fantasy Points Data) last season.
Brown’s insane per-route efficiency has been a calling card during his career. I don’t expect much, if any, dropoff from that this season. Despite his amazing talent, Brown was 25th in targets per game. Philly’s passing volume will naturally regress, so we should see more volume for Brown and the rest of these pass-catchers in 2025. The only question is how much. Brown remains a locked-in WR1 for this season, with his ceiling and floor tied to Philly’s passing volume.
Round 2: Late-Round Players to Target
Trey McBride had a monster 2024 season as the TE2 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, he ranked first in target share, second in receiving yards per game, third in Yards per route run, first in first downs per route run, and third in first downs per route run.
As insane as it sounds, if his horrible touchdown luck could correct itself, last season could have been even better. Despite ranking second in red-zone targets, McBride finished with only two receiving touchdowns (four total touchdowns). McBride finished with 15.6 PPR points per game (TE2), but he had 19.2 expected PPR points per game. McBride’s horrible touchdown run out could reverse itself in 2025, and if it does, he could be the clear runaway TE1.
Bucky Irving’s RB19 fantasy points per game finish last year doesn’t do him justice. Last year, after he wrestled the lead job away from Rachaad White, Irving was lights out as the RB6 in fantasy points per game, averaging 18.5 touches and 115.2 total yards.
Overall, Irving was fantastic, ranking in the top 15 in explosive run rate (seventh), missed tackles forced per attempt (third), yards after contact per attempt (fourth), receiving yards per game (14th), and Yards per route run (fifth, per Fantasy Points Data). After Week 9 last season, he had 55% of the red-zone rushing attempts as he was the preferred back near the goal-line over White and Sean Tucker. Irving should be a strong RB1 again in 2025.
Chase Brown was Cincy’s Christian McCaffrey last season after he took over the starting job. In Weeks 9-17, he averaged 23.7 touches and 116.3 total yards as the RB4 in fantasy points per game. He played at least 79% of the snaps in every game while ranking second in receiving yards per game, sixth in target share (12.5%), and 10th in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.
As good as Brown was, I do have some small worries about his per-touch efficiency. Among 46 qualifying backs, he was 25th in explosive run rate, 26th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. None of those numbers screams elite. That doesn’t mean Brown can’t continue to crush in fantasy in 2025 as Cincy’s do-it-all back, but the inefficiency does create an avenue for another back to step up and siphon off work. I don’t know if Samaje Perine is up to the task, but maybe Tahj Brooks could. Brown is a rock-solid RB1.
Round 3: Early-Round Players to Target
Josh Allen posted another elite season as the QB2 in fantasy points per game. He has not finished lower than QB3 in fantasy points per game since 2020, with three seasons as the QB1. The rushing production continues to be a big part of his wizardry, as he had 12 rushing scores while ranking fifth in rushing yards and third in red-zone carries per game.
Allen remains no slouch as a passer either, ranking ninth in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and first in hero throw rate, per Fantasy Points Data. He is in the running for QB1 overall again this season.
Lamar Jackson stole the QB1 crown away last year. It was his first time as the QB1 in fantasy points per game since his monstrous 2019 campaign. I know this won’t shock anyone, but his rushing production remained stellar as he led all quarterbacks with 915 rushing yards while ranking 10th in rushing touchdowns and fourth in carries per game.
Jackson also took more strides as a passer, finishing with a career-high 4,172 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns. Hopefully, the shade that he received earlier in his career as a passer is dead and buried 10 feet deep because he is a stellar thrower of the football. Among 40 qualifying passers last season, Jackson ranked first in yards per attempt, fifth in completion percentage over expected (CPOE), and seventh in hero throw rate, per Fantasy Points Data. Jackson could be the QB1 overall again in 2025.
Round 3: Mid-Round Players to Target
While I know Garrett Wilson’s 2024 season didn’t turn out the way many had hoped, it was still quite strong. He finally broke into the WR2 ranks as the WR18 in fantasy points per game while setting career highs in receptions (101), receiving yards (1,104), and receiving touchdowns (seven). He ranked 10th in target share, 22nd in receiving yards per game, and 29th in first downs per route run. Aaron Rodgers‘ rollercoaster quarterback play impacted his efficiency metrics.
Wilson was also 29th in separation and 35th in route win rate. This season, he won’t have Davante Adams to deal with as he steps forward as the unquestioned No. 1 WR for the team. Everyone is concerned about Wilson’s outlook with Justin Fields at the helm, but I’m not worried one bit. In 2023, with Fields, DJ Moore finished as the WR9 in fantasy points per game and was the WR19 in expected fantasy points per game.
Wilson has already displayed the ability to win as the top receiving threat in an offense and draw high-end target shares. He’ll be just fine this season as a strong WR2 who could be a WR1 if things break right.
Omarion Hamption (RB – LAC)
Hampton lands with the Bolts after hearing his name called in the first round of the NFL Draft. The only uncertainty around Hampton’s 2025 outlook is the division of the workload between him and Najee Harris. Harris has been a steady but uninspiring backfield option over the last few years. This could impede Hampton’s initial take-off, but with the uncertainty of Harris’s availability after the eye injury, Hampton could hit the ground running earlier than anticipated.
Drafting Hampton is a bet on his talent and draft capital taking over as time rolls on. Across his final two collegiate seasons, Hampton ranked 12th and 11th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th and 26th in elusive rating (per PFF). There should be plenty of rushing volume to go around, even if Harris hangs around in a supporting role.
In Greg Roman’s 11 years of coordinating NFL offenses, he’s never finished lower than 11th in rushing attempts (last year). Hampton is best viewed as an RB2 who could massively outplay his ADP if things break right.
Round 3: Late-Round Players to Target
Jayden Daniels was a league-winning value pick last year in his rookie season as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. If we remove the two games in which he failed to play more than 50% of the snaps, he averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game and had 0.61 fantasy points per dropback. Those two figures would have ranked second and fourth among quarterbacks last year.
In those 15 full games, Daniels averaged 58.2 rushing yards per game, which would have led all quarterbacks last year by 4.4 yards per game. He also wasn’t a pushover from the pocket, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, 11th in CPOE, and sixth in catchable target rate, per Fantasy Points Data.
Daniels can improve in the passing department, though, which is incredibly scary for anyone not drafting him, as he was 24th in highly accurate throw rate and 17th in off-target rate. Daniels has QB1 overall upside this season with a mid-QB1 floor.
Davante Adams proved last year that he still has plenty left in the tank. Last season with the Jets, among 79 qualifying wide receivers, Adams ranked 22nd in separation and 27th in route win rate, per Fantasy Points Data. While in New York, he was only on pace for 176 targets, 104 receptions, and 1,320 receiving yards as the WR7 in fantasy points per game.
The Rams will field a consolidated passing attack with Adams and Puka Nacua vacuuming up targets while Tyler Higbee and Tutu Atwell contribute as ancillary pieces. If Adams and Matthew Stafford can stay healthy in 2025, there’s no reason Adams shouldn’t produce as a WR1/WR2.
Mike Evans has finished no lower than WR13 in fantasy points per game over the last four years, and he didn’t show any signs of slowing down last year. While he has dealt with hamstring issues in each of the last three years, he has never played fewer than 14 games in any season.
Last year, Evans ranked 23rd in target share, fifth in Yards per route run, 16th in receiving yards per game, fourth in route win rate, and second in separation, per Fantasy Points Data. Evans is primed to produce as a WR1 again in 2025.
George Kittle remains an elite option at the tight end position and doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon. Kittle finished last year as the TE1 in fantasy points per game, and it’s like no one cares, as they rank him as the third tight end in fantasy heading into 2025.
Deebo Samuel is gone. Brandon Aiyuk‘s health and effectiveness are up in the air for 2025. Will Jauan Jennings continue his breakout? Will Ricky Pearsall fulfill the promise of his draft capital? There are a ton of questions in the 49ers’ passing attack in 2025, but Kittle isn’t one of them. He has been excellent and should continue that string of fantasy dominance.
Last year, Kittle ranked sixth in target share, first in Yards per route run, third in yards after the catch per reception, and second in first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. He was also flooded with high-leverage usage, ranking fifth in deep targets and second in red-zone targets among tight ends. Kittle could see more volume in 2025 and repeat as the TE1.
Round 4 Targets
Before he essentially missed the last three games of last year’s regular season with a concussion, Jalen Hurts was the QB5 in fantasy points per game. The Eagles leaned heavily on their ground game last year with the fewest passing attempts in the NFL, but that number will regress. Philly will pass more in 2025. It’s not a question of if but of how much. The tush push is still here despite certain NFL teams and their envy attempting to get rid of it.
Hurts spiked the ball in the end zone 14 times last year as he led the league in red-zone carries. While I don’t see him hitting that number again, 10+ rushing scores are probably a lock. Hurts also ranked first in carries per game and third in rushing yards among quarterbacks. I know I’ve discussed his rushing impact a ton here, but it’s not like Hurts was a bad passer last year.
Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked fourth in yards per attempt, second in CPOE, 13th in highly accurate throw rate, and he had the 11th-lowest off-target rate last year, per Fantasy Points Data. With a cupboard full of skill weapons and a top-five/top-10 offensive line, Hurts remains a top-four fantasy quarterback with QB1 overall upside.
It will fly under the radar that Kenneth Walker was the RB12 in fantasy points per game last season. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by injuries, but if Walker can stay healthy in 2025, he could finally put it all together with a top-five running back season.
Walker proved last year that not only is he still one of the best pure rushing talents in the league, but he is also a true three-down back with passing-catching chops. Among 45 qualifying backs, Walker ranked third in first downs per route run, sixth in target per route run rate, and sixth in receiving yards per game, per Fantasy Points Data.
Add all of that on top of leading the NFL in missed tackles forced per attempt and ranking 10th in yards after contact per attempt, and Walker could be a league-winner in 2025.
The Panthers finally gave Bryce Young a true No. 1 WR this season with the addition of Tetairoa McMillan. The Carolina Panthers selected McMillan inside the top 10 in the 2025 NFL Draft. McMillan could be a wonderful volume hog this year in what looks to be an ascending passing offense.
Last year, in Weeks 12-18, when Young was hitting his stride, the Panthers ranked 13th in neutral passing rate. We could see that number increase this year, with a true number one option leading the way. Last year, during that same stretch, Young ranked eighth in CPOE, fifth in deep throw rate, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and second in hero throw rate, per Fantasy Points Data.
McMillan is an incredibly talented receiver who can step up quickly. During his final two collegiate seasons, he ranked 17th and 21st in Yards per route run. He’s a battle-tested man coverage beater as well. In 2023-2024, McMillan had the third-most and the 10th-most man coverage targets (among FBS wide receivers) while also ranking eighth and 10th in Yards per route run against man coverage, per PFF.
Don’t be surprised if McMillan is a WR1/WR2 in his rookie season.
The Patriots drafted TreVeyon Henderson in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft to challenge Rhamondre Stevenson from the jump. Stevenson isn’t going anywhere, but Henderson will play a prominent role in 2025 as, at worst, the 1B in this backfield. As we move through the season, Henderson will eat into Stevenson’s workload, if not quickly supplant him as the backfield leader.
Henderson has the talent to do so. In two of his last four seasons in college, Henderson ranked in the top 10 in yards after contact per attempt (seventh, eighth) and in the top 20 in breakaway percentage (10th, 18th). He will operate behind an improved offensive line that added Garrett Bradbury, Will Campbell, and Morgan Moses in the offseason. Henderson should be the team’s passing-down back immediately, which is great news for his floor and ceiling.
Across his last two collegiate seasons, Henderson has ranked 21st & 22nd in receiving grade, per PFF. Josh McDaniels will feature him through the air. In McDaniels’ last five full seasons of directing NFL offenses, he has ranked inside the top 10 in four of those years, with 20-36.2% of the passing attack flowing through the backfield. Henderson could be New England’s version of Jahmyr Gibbs.
Round 5 Targets
Harvey is set to explode in his rookie season. The runway is clear for takeoff. Sean Payton just put second-round capital behind a back that enters a room with Tyler Badie, Jaleel McLaughlin, and J.K. Dobbins. No, I’m not worried about Badie or McLaughlin when they couldn’t carve out consistent roles last year with only the ghost of Javonte Williams standing in their way.
Dobbins will assist Harvey on early downs so Denver doesn’t run their talented rookie into the ground, but I don’t project him taking away passing down work or high-leverage opportunities. It’s hard not to love a player like Harvey, who has ranked inside the top 20 among FBS running backs in each of the last two seasons in breakaway percentage and elusive rating (per PFF).
Add in Payton’s running back usage, and Harvey looks primed to smash. Over the last two years, Payton has ranked fifth and first in running back target share. Harvey is a strong borderline RB1.
At this point, everyone should know and love what they get from DeVonta Smith yearly. He has finished as a top-20 wide receiver in fantasy points per game in each of the last three seasons (WR15, WR20, WR14).
Smith was awesome in nearly every metric last year. He was 11th in target share, 19th in Yards per route run, 12th in first downs per route run, 17th in separation, and 11th in route win rate, per Fantasy Points Data. While he might not be the sexiest pick of your draft with top-five/top-10 upside at wide receiver, he’s a known commodity and a damn good one as a stalwart WR2.
George Pickens has been freed from the horrid quarterback play that he has been saddled with since entering the NFL. There’s no doubt that Dak Prescott will be the best quarterback Pickens has played with during his NFL career. Last year, Pickens finished as the WR35 in fantasy points per game.
Pickens proved he could operate as a number one option, ranking 16th in target share (23.9%), 25th in Yards per route run (2.18), ninth in first-read share (32%), and 24th in receiving yards per game (64.3, per Fantasy Points Data). His numbers were even better in Weeks 1-13, before his hamstring injury, when he ranked 18th in separation, eighth in Yards per route run (2.53), and 25th in route win rate.
Pickens should enjoy the bump in passing volume as CeeDee Lamb‘s running mate. Last year, Pittsburgh had the fourth-fewest passing attempts, while Dallas had the third-most. Pickens should settle in as a strong WR2 this season, who could easily post a career-best season.
Last year, after Bo Nix took off, Courtland Sutton was the WR20 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 5-18, Sutton had a 22.7% target share while ranking 17th in Yards per route run, 22nd in receiving yards per game, 19th in first-read share, and ninth-best in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data).
Overall, he was the WR24 in fantasy points per game, but he was the WR9 in expected fantasy points per game. If Nix can take another step forward in 2025, Sutton could flirt with WR1 numbers. Sutton is a rock-solid WR2 with upside.
Calvin Ridley had to suffer through horrible quarterback play last year en route to a WR36 finish in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, Ridley finished 78th in catchable target rate.
Ridley finished 31st in target share and receiving yards per game, 32nd in Yards per route run, and 33rd in separation and route win rate, per Fantasy Points Data. He was the WR28 in expected fantasy points per game. If Cam Ward can hit the ground running, Ridley could see a big boost in his stat line in 2025. Ridley is a volume-based WR3 who could be a weekly WR2.
Last year was the first season since 2021 that James Conner played more than 13 games. He finished as the RB15 in fantasy points per game, racking up 283 touches and 1,508 total yards (nine scores). Conner didn’t look like he was slowing down at all, so I don’t see him relinquishing his workhorse role in 2025.
Assuming he can remain healthy again this season, Conner is set to smash. Last year, he was second in missed tackles forced per attempt, 11th in yards after contact per attempt, and sixth in explosive run rate, per Fantasy Points Data. He also retained his passing game excellence, sitting sixth in Yards per route run and seventh in receiving yards per game. Conner could be a wonderful value in fantasy football again in 2025.
Round 6 Targets
Travis Hunter should be Brian Thomas’s running mate from the word go in Jacksonville. The Jaguars paid a hefty price, but they got their guy in Hunter. The Jags have stated that Hunter will begin his NFL career with the main focus being on the offensive side of the ball, which makes sense. It’s not impossible, but improbable that a team would make an aggressive move of this magnitude for a full-time cornerback. Hunter looks to be a full-time wide receiver with TBD status next to his corner usage.
Hunter still has some substantial growth to make as a wide receiver, but he’s in good hands with Liam Coen and company. I’m curious how much slot usage Hunter will get in his rookie season, but I’m guessing it could be at least 40-50% of his snaps. This will be immensely helpful for a player who, last year (among all FBS wide receivers with at least eight slot targets), ranked fourth in slot Yards per route run, per PFF.
Overall, in his final collegiate season, Hunter ranked 38th in Yards per route run (YPPR) and sixth in receiving grade. Jacksonville’s passing attack should flow through Hunter and Thomas, with each sniffing a target share north of 23%. Hunter is a WR2/WR3 who could easily crush his fantasy football average draft position (ADP).
Tony Pollard had a strong 2024 season as the Titans’ workhorse starter. He ranked ninth in snap share, opportunity, and weighted opportunities. Pollard finished as the RB22 in fantasy points per game while ranking 18th in explosive run rate and sixth in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data.
The pitiful nature of the Titans’ offense last year, outside of Pollard, crushed his season. He was only 22nd in red-zone touches and was the RB15 in expected fantasy points per game. If Cam Ward can elevate this offensive ecosystem and Pollard can retain this awesome role, he could finish as a high-end RB2 this season.
David Montgomery remained the Lions’ early-down hammer and preferred goal-line option last year when healthy. Before he was sidelined in the back half of the 2024 season with a knee injury (Weeks 1-14), he was the RB11 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.3 touches per game and 83.1 total yards.
Last year, Montgomery ranked 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. When healthy, he dominated work inside the 10-yard line with 33 carries to Jahmyr Gibbs’ 16. It’s wonderful to be the goal-line king in an offense that led the NFL in points per game and red-zone scoring opportunities per game last year.
While Ben Johnson’s departure will have an impact on Detroit, this offense should still sit somewhere in the top-five/top-10 scoring offenses in the NFL. Montgomery is best viewed as a solid RB2 with obvious RB1 upside if he continues to spike touchdowns at a ridiculous rate.
Jaylen Waddle’s 2024 season was a huge disappointment, but all hope is not lost. The talent is still there, and Waddle is primed for a big bounce-back season. Last year, in the 14 games he played at least 70% of the snaps, his numbers don’t look amazing, but they were solid as he had a 16.3% target share, 1.79 Yards per route run, 53.1 receiving yards per game and 0.092 first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data.
If we look at just the numbers he accrued with Tua Tagovailoa under center and Waddle as a full-time player, we get a clearer picture of Waddle’s talent through the context-distorting muck. In that sample of games, Waddle had 2.14 Yards per route run, 64.6 receiving yards per game, and 0.114 first downs per route run.
Last year, among wide receivers with at least 200 routes run, those numbers would have ranked 27th, 23rd, and 13th. If Tagovailoa can stay healthy this year, Waddle can revert to the strong WR2 with WR1 upside receiver we have loved in previous seasons (WR21, WR12, WR15).
Round 7 Targets
If I were to tell you that there’s a wide receiver entering his second season in one of the best offenses in the NFL, that’s a former first-round NFL draft pick who flashed in the final weeks of his rookie season, that’s dirt cheap in fantasy football drafts… you’d tell me I was insane.
Well, I present to you Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall’s rookie season was derailed early by camp injuries and then off-the-field circumstances that were out of his control. All of these factors delayed Pearsall from flashing his immense talent, but eventually, the cream rose to the top.
In the final two weeks of the regular season, Pearsall finished as the WR7 and WR14 in weekly scoring while seeing a 21.7% target share, a 30.4% first-read share, and producing 2.84 Yards per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a torn ACL in 2025, and Deebo Samuel is gone. If Pearsall can establish himself as the 1B in this passing attack behind George Kittle, he’ll crush his fantasy football ADP and help plenty of fantasy players to titles in 2025.
The Steelers jettisoned Najee Harris and drafted his replacement as their lead back in the third round of the NFL Draft. Last year, Harris operated in an offense that was fourth in rushing attempts as Harris soaked up 299 touches (10th-most). If we lower those expectations for Kaleb Johnson, even 250 touches would have ranked 21st in the NFL.
Johnson brings a big-play ability that has been lacking over the last 2-3 years. Not only did he rank fifth in breakaway percentage last season, but he was also eighth in yards after contact per attempt and 14th in elusive rating, per PFF. My love for Jaylen Warren hasn’t dissipated, but we have to listen to the Steelers with their move to acquire Johnson’s services.
Warren will likely operate in his usual role while Johnson does the heavy lifting for Arthur Smith’s run-centric offense. Johnson is an RB2/RB3 who could be an RB1 down the stretch in 2025 if he can distance himself further from Warren better than Harris ever could.
Jakobi Meyers will reprise his role as Brock Bowers‘ running mate, leading the Raiders’ passing attack. Last year, after the departure of Davante Adams, Meyers was the WR18 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 98 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 19th in target share (23.5%), 13th in receiving yards per game (75.4), 34th in first downs per route run (0.096), and 11th in first-read share (32.6%, per Fantasy Points Data).
I’m not expecting Meyers to be a consistent WR2 this season again, but it’s not outside of the range of outcomes. He’s best viewed as a strong WR3/Flex with upside.
Before he tore his ACL last year, Stefon Diggs was the WR15 in fantasy points per game, running nearly 53% of his routes from the slot, commanding a 22.1% target share and 28.5% first-read share while producing 1.97 Yards per route run and 62 receiving yards per game, per Fantasy Points Data.
Diggs could be eased into action at the beginning of the season before taking over as the clear No. 1 WR for New England by mid-season. Diggs showed last year he still has the juice to play outside if that’s how the Patriots want to utilize him. Last year, among 112 qualifying receivers, Diggs ranked 15th in separation and 21st in route win rate when lined up on the perimeter (112 routes, per Fantasy Points Data). Diggs could be a wonderful value this season in fantasy football.
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Round 8 Targets
I was down on Bo Nix entering last season. Early on, it looked like I was right about my evaluation of him as a prospect. Nix struggled out of the gate before turning it on in Week 5. Once the candle was lit for Nix, he coffin-nailed my evaluation of his upside in the NFL. In Weeks 5-18, Nix was the QB6 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in yards per attempt, 10th in CPOE, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback, per Fantasy Points Data. I’ve never been happier being proved wrong.
Nix was nothing short of amazing and placed third in the NFL Rookie of the Year voting. He also provided rushing upside, which I didn’t expect in the NFL. Last year, he ranked 10th in carries per game and eighth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. Denver added Pat Bryant, RJ Harvey, J.K. Dobbins, and Evan Engram to this offense in the offseason. Nix could take another step in 2025 with the added weaponry and be a top-five quarterback.
Over the last three seasons, when he has been a starting quarterback, Justin Fields has finished inside the top 10 of fantasy quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (QB7, QB9, QB5). Last year, in his six starts for Pittsburgh, he was the QB7 in fantasy points per game while averaging 9.2 carries and 38.5 rushing yards per game. If Fields had kept up that rushing pace for the entire season, he would have finished fifth in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks, immediately behind Jalen Hurts.
Fields also took a step forward as a passer last year. In Weeks 1-6, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in CPOE, fourth-best in highly accurate throw rate, 12th-best in catchable target rate, and he boasted the ninth-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate, per Fantasy Points Data. The weapons surrounding Fields aren’t amazing, but he’s not being asked to work with a barren skill cupboard, as Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Mason Taylor should all be dependable receiving options. The Jets also have an offensive line that should have no problems buying him time in the pocket. Fields is a locked-in top-10 fantasy quarterback this season.
Mark Andrews is one of the best tight end values this year, with the talent to revisit top-three/top-five fantasy tight end status. Last year, Andrews was the TE7 in fantasy points per game, but it was heavily influenced by his 11 receiving scores as he ranked only 14th in receptions and ninth in receiving yards among tight ends. His recovery from tightrope surgery impacted his early-season effectiveness and usage.
In Weeks 1-9, Andrews was the TE16 in fantasy points per game, posting an 11.3% target share, an 18% target per route run rate (TPRR), 1.77 Yards per route run rate (YPPR), 32.1 receiving yards per game, a 13.9% first-read share and 0.110 first downs per route run.
After Week 9, every discernable per-route metric that we should care about improved for Andrews as he posted an 18.1% target share, a 24% TPRR, 2.31 YPRR, 48 receiving yards per game, an 18.9% first-read share and 0.127 first downs per route run as the TE5 in fantasy points per game, per Fantasy Points Data.
Buy the dip on Andrews and enjoy another stellar year from the Baltimore stalwart.
Jorcan Mason moves from San Francisco to Minnesota in an offseason trade to become Aaron Jones‘ running mate/handcuff. Mason sustained a shoulder injury and an ankle injury last year. The bum ankle ultimately ended his season. In the brief six games, he played 64% or more of the snaps as the starter for the 49ers, with an average of 21.3 touches and 111.8 total yards. He was a top-24 fantasy option at the running back position in four of those six outings and an RB1 in 50% of them.
Mason finished in the top six among running backs last year in explosive run rate (second), missed tackles forced per attempt (sixth), and yards after contact per attempt (third, per Fantasy Points Data). Mason is a top-shelf handcuff again this season who could offer some stand-alone value in Minnesota’s high-scoring offense.
Dak Prescott is an amazing late-round quarterback value. He is primed to return to the QB1 ranks in 2025. With George Pickens added opposite CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and Jalen Tolbert, Prescott has enough weaponry at his disposal to excel in Dallas’ pass-centric offense. Last year, in Weeks 1-8, Dallas ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and 10th in pass rate over expectation.
Prescott’s passing touchdown rate dipped to 3.8% last season, which was the first time since 2020 that his passing touchdown rate had dipped below 5.8%. Prescott will throw for more touchdowns in 2025. We’re only one season removed from him finishing as the QB4 in fantasy points per game, seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in CPOE, and sixth-best in highly accurate throw rate, per Fantasy Points Data. Invest in Prescott.
Evan Engram could smash his ADP this year as Sean Payton’s Joker. Everyone will point to last year as a reason to have worries about Engram, who ranked 20th in Yards per route run, but his target-drawing ability was just fine, ranking fifth in targets per route run and third in target share. He was also dealing with shoulder and hamstring issues. Those were his first injuries to deal with during a season since 2021.
In Engram’s two previous seasons, he ranked 13th and 14th in Yards per route run and second and 12th in target share, per Fantasy Points Data. Also, in 2023-2024, Engram excelled in one of the hallmark metrics that I look at when evaluating talent and upside at the tight end position: Yards per route run versus man coverage. In those seasons, Engram ranked fourth and eighth in this metric.
Engram’s best competition for targets is Courtland Sutton. Engram could lead Denver in targets this season. If that happens, he’ll likely be knocking on the door of the top-three/top-five tight ends in 2025.
Later-Round Quarterbacks to Target
Yes, I know we haven’t seen J.J. McCarthy play outside of an abbreviated preseason sample last year, but I’ll be targeting him everywhere this season. This should remain a pass-happy offense after ranking eighth in neutral passing rate and third in pass rate over expectation last year, per Fantasy Points Data. The Vikings remain loaded with skill players and added to the offensive line this offseason to give their new signal-caller all the time in the world to dice up opposing pass defenses in 2025.
Sam Darnold (yes, that Sam Darnold) finished as the QB9 in fantasy points per game last year, continuing a long history of Kevin O’Connell’s quarterbacks finishing as QB1s. I believe McCarthy will keep that streak alive. He was a stellar prospect airdropped into the perfect situation. In his final collegiate season, McCarthy ranked inside the top 12 FBS quarterbacks in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, yards per attempt, adjusted completion rate with downfield throws and against pressure, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). It’s wheels up for McCarthy in 2025.
Brock Purdy continues to hum along as a QB1 in fantasy after finishing as the QB10 and QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Last year, Purdy flashed some rushing upside, too, as he ranked 11th in rushing yards and seventh in rushing scores among quarterbacks.
Last year, he ranked third in yards per attempt, ninth in CPOE, and 10th in fantasy points per dropback. While Brandon Aiyuk could get off to a slow start this season, Purdy still has plenty of weapons at his disposal with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings. Purdy should lead one of the best offenses in the NFL again this season, which could be pushed to throw more if their defense takes a hit.
Last year was disastrous for C.J. Stroud as he tumbled from the QB7 in fantasy points per game to the QB28. Everything that could have gone wrong did. His offensive line imploded. Nico Collins was in and out of the lineup, while Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs were lost to season-ending injuries.
Stroud didn’t help matters with the fifth-highest time to throw and the 15th-highest pressure-to-sack ratio, per Fantasy Points Data. Stroud will operate behind a retooled offensive line in 2025 that honestly couldn’t be worse than what he dealt with last year. The skill player cabinet has been restocked with a nice mix of veterans and youth, with the additions of Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Nick Chubb, and Justin Watson. Everything is setting up nicely for Stroud to make a run as a top-12 fantasy quarterback again this season.
Later-Round Skill Players to Target
Javonte Williams (RB – DAL)
Last year, it was tough to watch Javonte Williams. The injuries have seemingly robbed him of his special tackle-breaking sauce, but I think with another year away from the injuries, Williams could regain some of his zip. Last season, Williams finished as the RB36 in fantasy points per game. He will be in the conversation, if not the favorite, to be the Cowboys’ starting back this season, with only Miles Sanders and Jaydon Blue realistically competing with him for the job.
Last year, Williams struggled after Week 8 as he didn’t force a single missed tackle for the rest of the season. His production in Weeks 1-8 offers some hope that we could see a better version of him in 2025. Yes, he hit a wall down the stretch last season, but in the first eight games, among 43 qualifying backs, Williams ranked 13th in missed tackle rate (20% per Fantasy Points Data).
If Williams can more closely resemble that player in 2025 or take another step back towards his former glory, he could be this year’s J.K. Dobbins. Williams is an RB3, who could easily be an RB2 this season.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB – WAS)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was a predraft love lister for me. Sadly, he dropped all the way to the seventh round of the NFL Draft before the Commanders picked up the phone. If Croskey-Merritt hadn’t had his 2024 season cut off by an eligibility issue, he would have gone much higher than this. His 2023 season was excellent. He ranked 19th in yards after contact per attempt and 12th in elusive rating (per PFF).
He’s a no-nonsense runner who makes one cut and gets downhill. With the rumors that Brian Robinson Jr. could get dealt or cut before Week 1, Croskey-Merritt (aka Bill) could immediately vault into the starter’s chair as Washington’s early down volume back. Bill could be a strong RB2 this season.
The Giants added Cam Skattebo to the backfield via the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He should be considered the early favorite to be the team’s workhorse after Tyrone Tracy‘s inconsistent rookie season and the team shelving any thought of Devin Singletary as their leading back.
Skattebo was a volume monster during his final season in college and a true three-down back. He ranked 21st in yards after contact per attempt and 11th in elusive rating while also sitting inside the top 10 in receiving grade and Yards per route run, per PFF.
It could take some time for Skattebo to wrestle 60-65% of the snaps away from the other players in this backfield with his hamstring injury in camp, but the path remains for this to happen. Skattebo could easily vault into an every-week top-15 running back down the back half of the season.
We all wanted a piece of this Houston passing attack last draft season. Everyone was clamoring to plant their flag for their favorite Houston wide receiver and pay up for them in drafts. Well, what a difference a year makes. Nico Collins is the only Houston skill player that you have to pay up for in drafts, which leads me to want to draft Jayden Higgins and Christian Kirk as much as possible.
One of these guys is set to step up as C.J. Stroud‘s No. 2 WR. Kirk likely has the inside track as a productive veteran, but he has struggled to stay healthy and is no bet to do so this season. At Kirk’s cost in drafts, the injury risk is baked in, but his talent and upside in this offense aren’t.
At first glance, Kirk’s numbers last year look solid but not overwhelmingly impressive. He had an 18.7% target share, 1.84 Yards per route run, and 0.087 first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. Those numbers put him in the WR3/WR4 realm, but his per-route separation data lays out the upside case for Kirk. Last year, among 128 qualifying wide receivers, Kirk ranked 14th in separation and 21st in route win rate. He’s an easy click in the later rounds of drafts, as he could have one more WR2/WR3 season left for fantasy.
If Kirk doesn’t stand up as Stroud’s clear No. 2 WR this season, I expect Higgins to take the role. HE should immediately fill in as the starting outside receiver opposite Collins. Higgins was an underrated player during the entire draft process after ranking 27th and 16th in Yards per route run and first and 18th in receiving grade during his final two collegiate seasons, per PFF.
One of these Houston wide receivers (or both) will be a value this season, along with Collins. I’m not opposed to anyone drafting both (considering their costs), holding them on their bench, and seeing how things play out the first few weeks of the season before dropping one to the waiver wire.
Last year, Darnell Mooney posted the second WR3 finish of his career in fantasy points per game (WR34), and he could easily do it again in 2025. There’s no disputing that the Falcons’ passing attack will be led by Drake London and Mooney this season. The target tree is extremely consolidated.
Last year, Mooney had a 19.6% target share while averaging 62 receiving yards per game (29th-best), posting 2.04 Yards per route run (31st) and 0.099 first downs per route run (28th, per Fantasy Points Data). With Michael Penix looking to push the ball downfield more than Kirk Cousins did, I could see Mooney’s target share jumping above 20% and his fantasy stock increasing accordingly. Mooney is a nice late-round WR3/Flex who could offer more if Penix puts it all together in 2025.
One of these talented Jaguar backs will turn out to be a massive value this season. If you miss out on one of them, target the other in your draft. Bhayshul Tuten found a port in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Liam Coen and company hope that Tuten can pull their offense up the scoring ranks in 2025.
Tuten has the juice to make the most of his touches. During his final collegiate season, he ranked 10th in yards after contact per attempt and breakaway percentage and eighth in elusive rating, per PFF. Tuten’s upside is mouthwatering.
Tank Bigsby had an awesome sophomore season for Jacksonville, especially considering how his rookie season unfolded. He finished as the RB40 in fantasy points per game, with eight weeks as the RB36 or better in weekly fantasy scoring. Bigsby wasn’t involved in the passing game, with just 12 targets last year.
I don’t see that changing this season, so he’ll need to manufacture fantasy points on the early downs with his legs. He proved he can do that last season. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 21st in explosive run rate and second-best in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. Bigsby will have to fight Travis Etienne and Tuten for playing time, but he has the raw talent to carve out a fruitful role in this offense in 2025.
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
Keenan Allen returns to the Bolts after a one-year dalliance with Chicago. I’ll lead this off by saying that we can toss Allen’s Yards per route run and first downs per route run in the trash as every Bears wide receiver’s efficiency metrics were tanked last year by Caleb Williams’ struggles. Allen finished as the WR31 in fantasy points per game.
Among 85 qualifying receivers, he didn’t have any issues still earning volume at a high rate, ranking 20th in target share (23.5%) and 26th in first-read share (28.8%, per Fantasy Points Data). His route running and separation skills remained solid. Among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 45th in separation and 40th in route win rate.
Last year, his slot rate dipped slightly to 54%. I expect that to creep back up toward the 60% mark in Los Angeles. The Chargers will also likely incorporate more 11 personnel this season after having the 11th-lowest rate of three wide receiver sets last year (56.2%). Greg Roman hasn’t utilized 11 personnel massively in his history, but the Bolts’ ranking 11th-best in EPA per pass last year from 11 personnel could twist his arm. Allen is a WR3/4 who could easily revert back into a solid volume-fueled WR2 with his long-standing rapport with Herbert helping in 2025.
Romeo Doubs (WR – GB)
Out of the cloudy receiving picture in Green Bay, Romeo Doubs is the wide receiver I want to draft this season. On the surface, there doesn’t appear to be much cause for being over the moon for Doubs, but hear me out. Last year, he finished as the WR47 in fantasy points per game, but he was the clear leader of the Green Bay Packers receiver room, and underneath the surface, he POPS in a number of metrics that matter.
Doubs was the only receiver for Green Bay that eclipsed a 75% route share (team-leading 76.7%) while leading the team in target share (18.7%) and first-read share (23.6%). He posted a solid 1.90 Yards per route run while ranking 25th among 85 qualifying receivers in first downs per route run (0.104, per Fantasy Points Data). Here’s where things get really interesting: Doubs, last year among 112 qualifying receivers, ranked 11th in separation and second in route win rate.
Doubs could be quietly headed for a massive breakout season, and with the addition of Matthew Golden and the Packers’ run-heavy approach last year, it’s not priced into his ADP at all. He’s one of my favorite late-round dart throws this season.
Joshua Palmer is a solid and cheap bet to make on the Buffalo offense. His surface stats don’t jump off the page. In the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps last year, he had a 13.7% target share, 1.57 Yards per route run, a 17.2% first-read share and 0.075 first downs per route run, per Fantasy Points Data. It’s when we pop open the hood and peek at his per-route metrics that things get interesting.
Last year, among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Palmer was one of the best separators in the NFL, ranking 16th in separation and 12th in route win rate. Now, those numbers are eye-popping, especially when you discuss one of the best offenses in the NFL, yet only one receiving option was able to draw more than a 20% target share last year (Khalil Shakir). Palmer’s route running and separation ability could lead to consistently heavier usage in Buffalo, where they don’t have a receiver commanding a high target share. Palmer is worth a late-round flier pick to find out.
Someone has to step up opposite Garrett Wilson as Justin Fields‘ trusted second weapon in the passing attack. Mason Taylor is a wonderful candidate to do so in 2025. New head coach Aaron Glenn witnessed how well tossing a talented rookie tight end into the fire as a trusted cog in the passing attack can go (hello, Sam LaPorta). Is Taylor the same caliber of prospect as LaPorta? No, but his athleticism is solid, with a 4.68 40-yard dash and an 83rd percentile three-cone.
Even if we project the Jets to be run-heavy, the passing volume should still be there in this offense. Even if the Jets finish with 500 passing attempts in 2025 (this would have been the fifth-fewest passing attempts in 2024) and Taylor can secure a 17% target share in an uninspiring depth chart, he would finish with 85 targets (this would have been the 11th-most last year). Taylor could easily take advantage of a weaker receiving depth chart around him and finish as a low-end TE1 in his rookie season.
Jarquez Hunter is arbitrage Bhayshul Tuten in fantasy football drafts. Hunter, much like Tuten, is headed to the NFL (Rams) via the fourth round of the draft. Also, like Tuten, Hunter finds himself possibly buried for 2025 behind two veterans, but he also possesses the talent and pathway to surpass one or maybe both in the running back pecking order.
The Rams thought so much of Blake Corum‘s rookie season that they addressed running back again this year. Hunter is incredibly talented. Hunter has ranked inside the top 24 in yards after contact per attempt in each of the last three seasons while also sitting in the top 22 in breakaway percentage in two of three years, per PFF.
Hunter offers the Rams an explosive element that neither Williams nor Corum has. Last year, among 46 qualifying backs, Williams ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt, per Fantasy Points Data. Hunter could be one of the best values of the fantasy football draft season.
Brashard Smith was another talented victim of this deep running back class. He dropped to the seventh round of the draft, which was surprising. The Chiefs added him to their already overstocked backfield. The Chiefs are no strangers to allowing a seventh-round running back a legit shot at starting (hi, Isiah Pacheco), so we can’t say that Smith has zero shot.
I was enamored with Smith’s receiving ability as a converted wide receiver, his lightning quickness, and his possible upside as a rusher for a player who is still getting acclimated to the position. Last year, Smith ranked 34th in breakaway percentage, second in receiving grade, and 22nd in Yards per route run, per PFF.
Smith’s skill set is different from every other back in this depth chart. He could easily carve out a standalone role as Kansas City’s new Jerick McKinnon.
*All data utilized in this article courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, Pro Football Focus, and PlayerProfiler unless otherwise specified.*
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