The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

• CIN -5.5, O/U 47.5
• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Joe Burrow
• Chase Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Joe Flacco (QB)

The last time that we saw Joe Flacco as the starter for the Cleveland Browns (Weeks 13-17 in 2023), he was the QB2 in fantasy points per game. In that season, among 48 qualifying passers, he was seventh in yards per attempt, first in passing yards per game, and third in aDOT and depth throw rate. It wasn’t all glitz and glam for Flacco, though, as his accuracy metrics were absolutely horrendous. Among that same sample of passers, he was 42nd in CPOE, 28th in highly accurate throw rate, and 39th in catchable target rate. He also finished with the 14th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. I think we’ll see a similar version of Flacco in 2025 from an inaccuracy standpoint. We’ll see if the fantasy production is there, but I have my questions. Flacco has a solid matchup on paper against the Bengals in Week 1, but there are some concerns. With Trey Hendrickson good to go, the pass rush should be decent. Quietly, last year, Cincy ranked 12th in pressure rate and fourth in quarterback knockdown rate. Adding Shemar Stewart to that pass rush equation could yield some nice results. The secondary is a concern, though, as Cincy (Weeks 10-18 last year) did allow the 12th-highest yards per attempt and second-most passing touchdowns. Flacco is a decent QB2 with upside this week.

Jerome Ford (RB)

With Quinshon Judkins still not part of the backfield equation, Jerome Ford is penciled in as the leader of the ground game out of the gate. Last year, when he was active with Nick Chubb in the lineup, he averaged 8.2 touches and 47.7 total yards as the RB39 in fantasy points per game. Ford remained explosive last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked eighth in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt while finishing 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt. The Browns have been hesitant to load Ford up with volume in recent seasons, despite his per-touch efficiency screaming that he deserves more volume. We’ll see him work in tandem with Dylan Sampson, but their division of labor is still up for debate. Ford is a decent flex play in deeper leagues with a nice matchup. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Cincy allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest missed tackle rate while also ranking 15th in rushing yards per game allowed.

Tee Higgins (WR)

While Tee Higgins‘ final stat line for 2024 might look meager, he arguably had the best per-game output of his career last season as the WR6 in fantasy points per game. Among 85 qualifying receivers, he ranked 22nd in target share (23.1%), ninth in receiving yards per game (75.9), 29th in yards per route run (2.12), and 16th in first downs per route run (0.112). Among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 18th in route win rate. Higgins should get off to a nice start in Week 1. Last year, Cleveland had the second-highest rate of single high (65.6%). In 2024, against single high, Higgins had a 26% target per route run rate with 1.96 yards per route run, a 30.3% first-read share, and 0.102 first downs per route run. Last year, Cleveland gave up the third-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Yes, he’ll see Denzel Ward on some plays, but he’ll also get plenty of Cameron Mitchell and Greg Newsome in this game.

David Njoku (TE)

Last year, David Njoku finished as the TE4 in fantasy points per game, easily the best per-game production of his career. Last season, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Njoku commanded a ton of volume, ranking fifth in target share (21%), seventh in receiving yards per game (45.9), and sixth in first-read share (21.7%), but he wasn’t efficient with his volume, ranking 32nd in first downs per route run and yards per route run. Njoku should get off to a nice start this season, though, against the Bengals. Last year, in his two meetings against this defense, he averaged nine grabs and 71 receiving yards as the TE1 and TE5 in weekly scoring. The Bengals were unable to stop tight ends last year, allowing the second-most receiving yards per game and the most fantasy points per game to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Dylan Sampson (RB)

Dylan Sampson will pair with Jerome Ford to lead the backfield to open the season. In 2023, Sampson ranked sixth in receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run (per PFF), so there are some reasons to be encouraged with his profile if he does take over the passing down duties for the Browns in a committee backfield approach with Ford. His early down metrics are what give me pause. IN his final two collegiate seasons, Sampson ranked 51st and 77th in yards after contact per attempt and 31st and 50th in elusive rating. With no way to accurately project his workload in Week 1, he’s a deep league dart throw flex only. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Cincy allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest missed tackle rate while also ranking 15th in rushing yards per game allowed. They were stout against receiving backs, allowing the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game and receiving touchdowns per game to the position.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Jerry Jeudy FINALLY had the breakout season that we have all been waiting for. Last year, he finished as the WR21 in fantasy points per game while securing 90 of his 144 targets with 1,229 receiving yards. Among 85 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 14th in receiving yards per game, 33rd in target share, and 45th in yards per route run. The rollercoaster he endured with quarterback play did impact those numbers. In Weeks 8-18, with anyone outside of Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball, he ranked 15th in target share, 20th in yards per route run and first downs per route run, and second in receiving yards per game behind only Ja’Marr Chase (among 95 qualifying wide receivers). I’m not bullish about Jeudy’s outlook in Week 1, though. Last year, Cincy was surprisingly good against perimeter wide receivers, giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest PPR points per target. Jeudy didn’t surpass 20 receiving yards in either game against Cincy last year.

Cedric Tillman (WR)

Cedric Tillman made some noise last year before he was forced to miss the rest of the season recovering from a concussion. In Weeks 7-12, Tillman was the WR12 in fantasy points per game with a 19.7% target share, 66.0 receiving yards per game, and a 23.3% first-read share. Tillman’s deeper metrics during that stretch and for the entire season weren’t outstanding, though. In those five games, Tillman only had 1.71 yards per route run and 0.078 first downs per route run. Those aren’t amazing per-route numbers. Cleveland’s play volume inflated Tillman’s counting stats during this five-game stint, as they ranked third in passing attempts and second in passing rate. Another hit to Tillman’s resume is that overall, he also ranked 82nd in separation and 90th in route win rate last season (112 qualifying receivers). There will be weeks to consider flexing Tillman this season, but Week 1 isn’t one of them. Last year, Cincy was surprisingly good against perimeter wide receivers, giving up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest PPR points per target.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• JAC -3.5, O/U 46.5
• Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Brian Thomas Jr.

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bryce Young (QB)

The light finally came on for Bryce Young down the stretch last year. In Weeks 12-18, he was the QB8 in fantasy points per game, averaging 25.4 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked 12th-best overall last year. During that stretch, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranked eighth in CPOE, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and second in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). He was aggressively pushing the ball downfield with the fifth-highest deep throw rate in the NFL behind only Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love. Young should get off to a good start this week. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Jacksonville allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt and second-most passing yards per game. They added Jourdan Lewis and Eric Murray this offseason, but this is still likely a plus matchup for Young. Last season, Jacksonville also had the third-lowest pressure rate, so Young should have time in the pocket to pick apart this defense.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

Hubbard blew away everyone’s expectations last year as the RB13 in fantasy points per game. He was the Panthers’ every-down workhorse. Last season, he ranked third in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, 12th in weighted opportunities, and 14th in red zone touches. I don’t know if he has that type of workload in 2025 with the offseason additions of Rico Dowdle and Trevor Etienne. Last year in Weeks 1-9, with Miles Sanders active, Hubbard had only a 35.5% route per dropback rate (Sanders 27.1%). It wasn’t until Sanders was out in Weeks 10-17 that Hubbard’s route per dropback rate climbed to 64%. If we zoom in further, in Weeks 1-3 with Sanders, Hubbard had three red zone rushing attempts while Sanders checked in with two. Hubbard remains an electric early down rusher. Last year, he ranked 11th in explosive run rate and seventh in yards after contact per attempt. Rico Dowdle will likely eat into his workload this season, beginning in Week 1. If Hubbard falls into the endzone against Jacksonville, he’ll likely pay off as an RB2. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Jacksonville allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, had the third-lowest stuff rate, and surrendered the third-highest gap run success rate. Last year, Hubbard had 4.98 yards per carry with gap runs.

Tank Bigsby (RB)

Bigsby had an awesome sophomore season for Jacksonville, especially considering how his rookie season unfolded. He finished as the RB40 in fantasy points per game, with eight weeks as the RB36 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring. Bigsby wasn’t involved in the passing game, having only 12 targets last year. We’ll see if that changes this season, as Bigsby was catching passes in the preseason in limited action. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 21st in explosive run rate and second-best in yards after contact per attempt. Bigsby will be locked into a committee, and it remains to be seen how work will be divided up this season. He could take on more of the early down lifting with Travis Etienne playing on passing downs, or they could rotate drives while Bhayshul Tuten siphons off some snaps and opportunities. Bigsby has a nice on-paper matchup in Week 1, but appearances could be deceiving. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Carolina fielded a legendarily bad run defense, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the eighth-highest missed tackle rate. Carolina invested significant resources into their defensive line with the signings of Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, and Patrick Jones II, which will upgrade this unit along with the return of a healthy Derrick Brown. This is better viewed as an above-average matchup that could easily be a bad matchup for rushers this season.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Travis Etienne had an incredibly disappointing season last year as the RB37 in fantasy points per game. He dealt with a shoulder issue (Week 4) and hamstring problems (Week 6). In Weeks 1-3, he averaged 15 touches and 67.4 total yards. In Weeks 10-18, after he was over the hamstring woes, he averaged 14 touches and 57.6 total yards. His per-touch efficiency in the 11 games that he was at his healthiest last year was putrid. Etienne had an 8% missed tackle rate and only 2.30 yards after contact per attempt. Those are backup-level worthy tackle-breaking numbers. Etienne will be locked into a committee, and it remains to be seen how work will be divided up this season. He could take on more of the passing downs with Tank Bigsby playing on rushing downs, or they could rotate drives while Bhayshul Tuten siphons off some snaps and opportunities. Etienne has a nice on-paper matchup in Week 1, but appearances could be deceiving. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Carolina fielded a legendarily bad run defense, giving up the most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the eighth-highest missed tackle rate. Carolina invested significant resources into their defensive line with the signings of Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, and Patrick Jones II, which will upgrade this unit along with the return of a healthy Derrick Brown. This is better viewed as an above-average matchup that could easily be a bad matchup for rushers this season.

Tetairoa McMillan (WR)

The Panthers finally gave Bryce Young a true WR1 this season with their selection of Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan could be a wonderful volume hog this year in what looks to be an ascending passing offense, especially with Jalen Coker sidelined to begin the season. During his final two collegiate seasons, McMillan ranked 17th and 21st in yards per route run. In his most substantial preseason action (Week 1), McMillan had a 26.3% target per route run rate and 2.26 yards per route run. It was a small 19-route sample, but quite encouraging nonetheless. I’m not worried about his Week 1 matchup. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. The Jaguars didn’t do anything to improve their perimeter coverage in the offseason, with Jarrian Jones assuming the starting job opposite Tyson Campbell. McMillan will tangle with Jones (2024: 72.6% catch rate and 86.6 passer rating allowed) and Campbell (2024: 67.3% catch rate and 109.7 passer rating allowed) for most of the game (83.3% perimeter in the preseason).

Xavier Legette (WR)

Last year, in the games Xavier Legette played at least 59% of the snaps, with Bryce Young under center, he had an encouraging 20.5% target share and 25.3% first-read share, but his per-route efficiency was horrible with 1.32 yards per route run and 0.066 first downs per route run. Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 69th in separation and 52nd in route win rate. The matchup is nice for Legette this week, but I can’t consider him as anything more than a deep league desperation flex for Week 1. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. The Jaguars didn’t do anything to improve their perimeter coverage in the offseason, with Jarrian Jones assuming the starting job opposite Tyson Campbell. Legette will tangle with Jones (2024: 72.6% catch rate, 11th-highest) and Campbell (2024: 67.3% catch rate and 109.7 passer rating allowed) for most of the game, with Hunter Renfrow handling slot duties.

Brenton Strange (TE)

Brenton Strange enters the 2025 season as the team’s undisputed starter after Evan Engram‘s departure. Last year, Strange had seven games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps, where he averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game. In those games, he also saw a 14.8% target share with a 17.3% first-read share while producing 1.39 yards per route run, 36.1 receiving yards per game, and 0.071 first downs per route run. Those are pretty much TE2-worthy numbers across the board outside of the first-read share, which will decline some with Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown in town. Strange is a viable tight end option for deeper leagues or if you punted the position in a draft. Last year, Carolina was crushed by the position. They allowed the fifth-highest yards per reception and the most receiving touchdowns per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Trevor Lawrence had another disappointing season in 2024 that was ultimately cut short by injury. He was knocked out of Week 9 with a shoulder issue, only to return for Week 13 and leave the game with a concussion. He didn’t play another snap in 2024. In Weeks 1-9, Lawrence was the QB15 in fantasy points per game. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 16th in hero throw rate, and 19th in highly accurate throw rate. The injuries took a toll not only on his passing numbers but also on his rushing production. In the three previous seasons, Lawrence ranked eighth, tenth, and ninth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. Last year, he had only 11.9 rushing yards per game, which was 33rd among quarterbacks. Lawrence might have a stiffer test in Week 1 than many are expecting. Last year, in Weeks 9-16, with Jaycee Horn still active, the Panthers held opposing passers to the fourth-fewest yards per attempt and the 13th-lowest passer rating and CPOE. This defense has only improved this offseason with the additions of Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, Patrick Jones II, Princely Umanmielen, Tre’von Moehrig, and Mike Jackson. They finished last in the NFL in pressure rate last year, despite ranking eighth in blitz rate. I’ll be lower than consensus on Lawrence in Week 1.

Bhayshul Tuten (RB)

Right now, Bhayshul Tuten looks like the distant third option in this Jacksonville backfield. I don’t think it remains that way for the entire season, but he’s not playable in fantasy until we see how this backfield shakes out or Tuten climbs the depth chart. He’s a wonderful upside stash for season-long, but Tuten might only see a handful of snaps in Week 1, and it wouldn’t shock me if he were inactive in Week 1.

Travis Hunter (WR)

I think we’ll see Travis Hunter in Week 1 play as a full-time or near full-time player on offense at wide receiver, but we have no concrete intel providing us with the insight to exactly how it plays out. Hunter’s snap share will be a mystery until we all see him unveiled in Week 1 and the rest of the season. When he’s on the field with the offense, he should be Brian Thomas Jr.‘s running mate. Hunter ran 63% of his routes in the preseason from the slot, which is what I was expecting before seeing it in his limited preseason action (only seven routes). It was encouraging as he was extremely efficient from the slot in his final collegiate season. Last year, among all FBS wide receivers with at least eight slot targets, Hunter ranked fourth in slot yards per route run. Overall, in his final collegiate season, he ranked 38th in yards per route run and sixth in receiving grade. Hunter will match up with Chau Smith-Wade, who allowed the second-lowest passer rating and the 14th-fewest yards per snap (among 42 qualifying slot corners) last year. In Weeks 7-16, Smith-Wade made six starts. During that stretch, Carolina held slot receivers to the 13th-fewest fantasy points per game. Hunter is a risky start in Week 1.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts

• IND -1.5, O/U 46.5
• Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• De’Von Achane
• Jonathon Taylor

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks last season, Tua Tagovailoa had the lowest aDOT (5.9) and the second-lowest time to throw behind only Cooper Rush. While this Chad Pennington-esque approach hurt his receivers, it didn’t impact Tagovailoa’s fantasy output, as he was the QB13 in fantasy points per game. Among the previous subset of quarterbacks discussed, he also ranked 18th in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, tenth in CPOE, and first in highly accurate throw rate. With Lou Anarumo taking over the Colts’ defensive playcalling this year, I expect that we’ll still see a ton of single high usage. Last year, Indy was 11th in single high rate (56.2%). In two of Anarumo’s final three seasons with Cincy, he utilized single high between 53.9-59.8% of snaps. Last year, Tagovailoa ranked 11th in passer rating and CPOE and tenth in fantasy points per dropback against single high. Last season, in Weeks 10-18, Indy allowed the seventh-highest success rate per dropback, the tenth-highest yards per attempt, and ranked 14th in EPA per dropback, but I’ll say that not only did they change defensive coordinators, they added a new starting corner duo. Charvarius Ward and Xavien Howard take over on the perimeter this season, which will hopefully be upgrades for the Colts. This is a middle-of-the-road matchup for Tagovailoa.

Daniel Jones (QB)

Last year, Daniel Jones was the QB25 in fantasy points per game, despite ranking 13th in rushing yards per game at the position. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Jones ranked in the bottom five in yards per attempt, highly accurate throw rate, and hero throw rate. Jones is an interesting QB2 option this week in Superflex leagues. While I’m not confident he starts the entire season, Jones should have success in Week 1. This secondary has question marks throughout with the arrival of Minkah Fitzpatrick and their rough starting perimeter duo of Rasul Douglas (2024: 72.6% catch rate and 116.9 passer rating allowed) and Storm Duck (2024: 71.9% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating allowed). Their pass rush had the tenth-lowest pressure rate last year, but that can be explained by Jaelan Phillips being limited to four games and no Bradley Chubb last season. We’ll see how good the defensive line can be, but there’s an avenue for Jones to start the 2025 fantasy season off on the right foot.

Ollie Gordon (RB)

With Jaylen Wright struggling in the preseason and now injured, Ollie Gordon has stepped up as De’Von Achane‘s running mate to begin the season. The big, bruising back out of Oklahoma State was selected by the Dolphins in the sixth round of the NFL Draft. Ollie Gordon had a disappointing 2024 season, but the year prior, he ranked 39th in yards after contact per attempt and seventh in breakaway percentage. I know it’s preseason, but Gordon was impressive, ranking ninth in yards after contact per attempt and eighth in breakaway percentage. Gordon could flirt with double-digit touches in Week 1. If he falls into the endzone, he’ll pay off as a flex. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, the Colts allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, the ninth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 11th-most yards after contact per attempt.

Tyreek Hill (WR)

Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa under center (Weeks 8-16), Tyreek Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 36th in yards per route run, 34th in target share, and 33rd in receiving yards per game. Overall, last year, he was 28th in separation and 48th in route win rate. Hill enters Week 1 dealing with an oblique injury, but he’s supposed to be a full go and suit up. With Lou Anarumo taking over the Colts’ defensive playcalling this year, I expect that we’ll still see a ton of single high usage. Last year, Indy was 11th in single high rate (56.2%). In two of Anarumo’s final three seasons with Cincy, he utilized single high between 53.9-59.8% of snaps. Last year, with Tagovailoa under center, Hill remained excellent against single high with a 34% target per route run rate, 2.72 yards per route run, and 0.168 first downs per route run. Hill could turn back the clock to begin the season with a big game, lining up against Charvarius Ward (2024: 60.8% catch rate and 119.1 passer rating) and Xavien Howard (2023: 62% catch rate and 86.7 passer rating) all day.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Jaylen Waddle‘s 2024 season was a huge disappointment, but he’s primed for a bounce-back season. The talent is still there. Last year, in the 14 games he played, at least 70% of the snaps, his numbers don’t look amazing, but they were solid as he had a 16.3% target share, 1.79 yards per route run, 53.1 receiving yards per game, and 0.092 first downs per route run. Let’s examine the numbers he accrued with Tua Tagovailoa under center and Waddle as a full-time player. We get a clearer picture of Waddle’s talent through the context-distorting muck. In that sample of games, Waddle had 2.14 yards per route run, 64.6 receiving yards per game, and 0.114 first downs per route run. With Lou Anarumo taking over the Colts’ defensive playcalling this year, I expect that we’ll still see a ton of single high usage. Last year, Indy was 11th in single high rate (56.2%). In two of Anarumo’s final three seasons with Cincy, he utilized single high between 53.9-59.8% of snaps. Last year, with Tagovailoa under center and Waddle as a full-time player, he was solid with 2.02 yards per route run and 0.126 first downs per route run, but he had only a 16% target per route run and 15.3% first-read share. Hopefully, that comes up because Waddle could do damage in Week 1 against the Colts’ secondary if he gets the target volume, lining up against Charvarius Ward (2024: 60.8% catch rate and 119.1 passer rating) and Xavien Howard (2023: 62% catch rate and 86.7 passer rating) all day.

Josh Downs (WR)

Downs displayed real growth in year two, finishing as the WR28 in fantasy points per game, but it still doesn’t tell the entire story of his 2024 season. That end-of-season finish doesn’t fully illustrate Downs’ upside. In the games that Joe Flacco played at least 80% of the snaps last year, we got a glimpse of it. In those games with Flacco, Downs had a 25.7% target share, 2.38 yards per route run, 66.4 receiving yards per game, a 32.4% first-read share, 0.144 first downs per route run, and 15.5 PPR points per game. If he had kept that pace up in those categories, among wide receivers with at least 50 targets last year, he would have ranked ninth, 15th, 20th, ninth, and fourth as the WR21 in fantasy points per game. Downs should get off to a fast start in Week 1. Last year, Miami ranked sixth in two high rate (52.7%). Last year, against two high, Downs had a 32% target per route run rate, 1.98 yards per route run, and 0.097 first downs per route run. He’ll line up against rookie nickel corner (converted safety) Jason Marshall Jr. (in his final collegiate season: 52.6% catch rate and 119.0 passer rating allowed) all day.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Last year, Michael Pittman dealt with back issues and underwhelming quarterback play, which tanked his season as the WR44 in fantasy points per game. Last season, among 85 qualifying receivers, Pittman’s market share metrics were perfectly fine, with a 22.6% target share (27th) and 26.6% first-read share (32nd), but his efficiency tanked with 1.82 yards per route run (48th) and 0.079 first downs per route run (53rd, per Fantasy Points Data). His deeper per-route metrics also told a grim tale that should be expected considering his back ailment. Among 112 qualifying receivers, he was 61st in separation and 74th in route win rate after ranking 30th and 33rd in those categories the year prior. Pittman should be a far more effective player this season. Last year, Miami ranked sixth in two high rate (52.7%). Last year, against two high, Pittman had a 24% target per route run rate and 1.76 yards per route run. He should see a healthy target volume this week behind Josh Downs with easy corner matchups on the perimeter against Rasul Douglas (2024: 72.6% catch rate and 116.9 passer rating allowed) and Storm Duck (2024: 71.9% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating allowed).

Tyler Warren (TE)

Tyler Warren‘s talent is undeniable, but his target volume in this offense weekly behind Josh Downs and Michael Pittman, along with quarterback play concerns, have clouded his outlook for 2025. During his final collegiate season, Warren ranked in the top three among tight ends in yards per route run, receiving grade, missed tackles forced, and yards after the catch. Warren could start the season off right with a TE1 finish out of the gate against a Miami secondary that allowed the 12th-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends last year. Daniel Jones should look to feed easy catch and run targets to Warren against a defense that allowed the tenth-most missed tackles last year.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

• N/A

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets

• PIT -3, O/U 38.5
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New York Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Breece Hall (RB)

Like it or not, the Jets’ backfield will be utilized with a committee approach. The preseason usage for Breece Hall and Braelon Allen, added to the offseason commentary from Aaron Glenn, confirms it. That’s definitely a worry for Hall, but he remains the most talented back in that room. If this is an equal competition for work based on talent alone, Hall should still be the unquestioned lead back in New York, but we have to see how this will play out. Last year, Hall was the RB17 in fantasy points per game, ranking eighth in snap share, 15th in opportunity share, and tenth in weighted opportunity. Hall produced adequately on a per-touch basis last year, ranking 15th in explosive run rate, 16th in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in receiving yards per game, and 16th in yards per route run. Hall is a shaky RB2 with a tough matchup. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Pittsburgh allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

D.K. Metcalf (WR)

Last year was the first time D.K. Metcalf didn’t finish as a top 24 wide receiver in fantasy points per game (WR30). Metcalf dealt with shoulder and knee injuries last year, which could also be contributing to his fall off. His per-route metrics don’t paint a rosier picture, as he was 78th in separation, 89th in route win rate, and 64th in first downs per route run. Yes, he did rank 36th in target share, 35th in yards per route run, and 20th in receiving yards per game, so it’s not all doom and gloom surrounding Metcalf. I’m worried about how this will all work with Aaron Rodgers and Arthur Smith this season, as we’ve seen Smith ruin wide receivers not named A.J. Brown for the past few seasons. If Aaron Glenn deploys his defense in a similar fashion as last year, Metcalf should see a ton of man coverage in Week 1. Last year, Detroit led the NFL in man coverage rate (45%). For all of the meh numbers from Metcalf last year, he was still strong against man coverage with a 27% target per route run rate, 2.17 yards per route run, and 0.084 first downs per route run. Metcalf will have his issues with Sauce Gardner (2024: 53.2% catch rate and 79.3 passer rating allowed) this week, but he should be able to pick on Brandon Stephens (2024: 67.9% catch rate and 110.8 passer rating allowed).

Garrett Wilson (WR)

While I know Wilson’s 2024 season didn’t turn out the way many had hoped, it was still quite strong. He finally broke into the WR2 ranks as the WR18 in fantasy points per game while setting career highs in receptions (101), receiving yards (1,104), and receiving touchdowns (seven). He ranked tenth in target share, 22nd in receiving yards per game, and 29th in first downs per route run. Aaron Rodgers‘ rollercoaster quarterback play impacted his efficiency metrics. Wilson was also 29th in separation and 35th in route win rate. This season, he won’t have Davante Adams to deal with as he steps forward as the unquestioned WR1 for the team. Last year, Pittsburgh ranked first in single high rate (66.4%). I don’t see their usage of single high declining this year. Last season, against single high, Wilson had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.03 yards per route run, and 0.115 first downs per route run, which were all solid to fantastic marks. Wilson’s biggest hurdle, outside of Justin Fields‘ quarterback play, in Week 1 will be dealing with Joey Porter Jr., Darius Slay, and Jalen Ramsey. Wilson will need all the volume he can get to outkick the horrible matchup.

Mason Taylor (TE)

Mason Taylor could become the number two target in the passing attack quickly, with only Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard as his closest competition for targets. I wasn’t nearly as enamored as many with Taylor as a prospect. His athleticism was solid, with a 4.68 40-yard dash and an 83rd percentile 3-cone. Taylor should be a solid target for Justin Fields, especially in Week 1, as Garrett Wilson will be dealing with a top-shelf corner no matter where he lines up along the formation. Taylor could get peppered this week. Last year, Pittsburgh allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the 11th-most receiving yards to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Justin Fields (QB)

Over the last three seasons, when he has been a starting quarterback, Justin Fields has finished inside the top ten fantasy quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (QB7, QB9, QB5). Last year, in his six starts for Pittsburgh, he was the QB7 in fantasy points per game while averaging 9.2 carries and 38.5 rushing yards per game. If Fields had kept up that rushing pace for the entire season, he would have finished fifth in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks, immediately behind Jalen Hurts. He also took a step forward as a passer last year. In Weeks 1-6, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in CPOE, fourth-best in highly accurate throw rate, 12th-best in catchable target rate, and he boasted the ninth-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate. Fields’ opening test against his former team looks like a daunting one. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Pittsburgh ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 14th in passer rating, and gave up the sixth-highest CPOE, but they have SUBSTANTIALLY upgraded their secondary this offseason. The additions of Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey to fit in alongside Joey Porter Jr. make this arguably the best starting trio of corners in the NFL. Fields will need all the rushing equity he can get in Week 1.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Last season, in many aspects, Aaron Rodgers looked like a shell of his former self. He finished as the QB19 in fantasy points per game despite operating in an offense with the fourth-highest passing rate over expectation. I don’t know if he gets anywhere near that type of pass-happy offensive design with Arthur Smith carrying the play-calling headset. Yes, Pittsburgh (fourth-lowest passing rate over expectation) will pass more in 2025, but they WILL NOT be a top 5-10 passing rate team. Then we are left to rely upon per-dropback efficiency from Rodgers, which in the year 2025 is hard to do. Last season, among 40 qualifying passers, he ranked 29th in yards per attempt, 39th in CPOE, 22nd in catchable target rate, and had the eighth-highest off-target rate. Rodgers faces his former team in Week 1, which last year (in Weeks 10-18) allowed the 13th-highest yards per attempt, the tenth-highest passer rating, and the third-highest CPOE. Now, I’m taking those numbers with a grain of salt, given that Aaron Glenn is now at the controls of this defense. The Jets looked like a team that had given up in the back half of last season, so I expect a renewed fire from them and their defense to play closer to expectation, with consideration of the talent on that side of the ball for New York. The Jets did rank 11th in pressure rate and fifth in quarterback hurry rate last year. I do expect that to be closer to their norm this year, so Rodgers could be under duress in Week 1. Rodgers’ mobility isn’t what it once was.

Kaleb Johnson (RB)

Kaleb Johnson will take on the heavy lifting on early downs for Pittsburgh this season. No, I don’t care about where he is on the current unofficial depth chart. He was solid this preseason. Among 60 qualifying backs, he ranked 17th in yards after contact per attempt and tenth in elusive rating. Last year, not only did he rank fifth in breakaway percentage, but he was also eighth in yards after contact per attempt and 14th in elusive rating. We’ll have to see what his workload looks like out of the gate, but I wouldn’t be shocked by 12-15 opportunities this week. The matchup isn’t great, so keep your expectations in check. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, the Jets allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game. Johnson likely needs to punch in a short touchdown to pay off in Week 1.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Jaylen Warren will work in tandem this season with Kaleb Johnson. He should take on more of the passing down work while contributing on early downs. Last year, Warren was the RB29 as he dealt with a hamstring and a knee issue. In Weeks 8-18, Warren averaged 9.6 touches and 66.2 total yards while ranking 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt (among 52 qualifying backs). During that stretch, Warren was the RB36 in fantasy points per game. He’s a dicey flex for Week 1. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, the Jets allowed the lowest explosive run rate, the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 14th-fewest rushing yards per game.

Braelon Allen (RB)

Braelon Allen will likely split the early down work with Breece Hall this season. Last year, Allen averaged 6.5 touches and 28.3 total yards in backup duty. Among 70 qualifying backs, he ranked 51st in missed tackle rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. With a rough matchup on the ground in Week 1, Allen is a touchdown-dependent flex that is best left on the bench. Last year, in Weeks 10-18, Pittsburgh allowed the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Jonnu Smith‘s upside in fantasy was quickly vaporized for 2025 with his arrival in Pittsburgh. We’ve seen what this looks like before. In 2023, when Smith was with Atlanta, he was the TE20 in fantasy points per game despite logging five weeks as a TE1 in fantasy scoring. He had a 57.9% route share (26th), a 13% target share (21st), 34.2 receiving yards per game (17th), and 1.67 yards per route run (12th). I don’t have any confidence in starting Smith in Week 1. Last year, the Jets allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Last season, Pat Freiermuth was the TE13 in fantasy points per game, ranking 16th in target share (14.8%), 30th in target per route run rate (18%), 22nd in yards per route run (1.56), and 11th in first read share. Unfortunately, with the addition of Jonnu Smith this offseason, his 2025 outlook has been tanked. Last year, he also ranked eighth in route per dropback rate, which is sure to come crashing down as he and Smith will split routes, and Darnell Washington will get into the mix as well. Freiermuth will likely have streamable weeks this season, but Week 1 isn’t one of them. Last year, the Jets allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.

DAL vs. PHI | KC vs. LAC | TB vs. ATL | LV vs. NE | CIN vs. CLE | CAR vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | PIT vs. NYJ | ARI vs. NO | NYG vs. WAS | SF vs. SEA | TEN vs. DEN | DET vs. GB | HOU vs. LAR | BAL vs. BUF | MIN vs. CHI