Fantasy Football Player Notes

It's crazy to see Kenyan Drake not getting the respect he deserved when he performed the way he did under Kliff Kingsbury last year. Since coming over in Week 9, he was the No. 4 running back through the remainder of the fantasy season, and the Cardinals liked him enough to move on from David Johnson and not draft a running back until the seventh round.

Did you know Hopkins hasn't seen less than 150 targets since way back in 2014? Now going to a Cardinals team with Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald, it's unlikely he reaches that mark. The odd offseason also hasn't given him a lot of time with new quarterback Kyler Murray. From reports, the first time the duo got together was at the end of June. Is that enough time to develop any sort of chemistry? Hopkins has played with a lot of bad quarterbacks in his time, though the only one who held him back from producing was Brock Osweiler, as Hopkins finished as the No. 29 wide receiver in 2016 despite seeing 151 targets. Murray's rookie season wasn't particularly efficient (both Fitzgerald and Kirk saw over 105 targets but outside the top-36 wide receivers), but we should expect growth in year two. There is a scenario where Hopkins is a rock-solid player but not a top-five fantasy receiver, however, given his history of producing with guys like Tom Savage, TJ Yates, and Brian Hoyer, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt. Still, his targets will take a hit, making him a second-round pick rather than the first-round one he's been.

There's a realistic scenario where Murray is the QB1 at the end of the season, though I can't say we should expect it. In the first year of Kliff Kingsbury's offense, he averaged just 6.9 yards per attempt. While it was his rookie season, the Cardinals also had the element of surprise, in that no one had existing tape on the offense. Adding DeAndre Hopkins surely helps his chances, though. Did you know there were six games that Murray didn't throw a touchdown last year? Based on where his pass attempts and rushing attempts took place, Murray should've scored the third-most fantasy points among quarterbacks last year. Natural progression to his career should improve efficiency. If you're looking for upside, he's got it. He belongs in the same tier as guys like Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson. The difference between him and those guys? They've proved to be top-three fantasy quarterbacks already.

He has the benefit of playing a year with Kyler Murray in Kliff Kingsbury's offense, while DeAndre Hopkins may go through a learning curve. Despite playing just 13 games last year, Kirk saw 107 targets (132 target pace over 16 games). The issue is that Hopkins will get a large chunk of the pie, and Larry Fitzgerald didn't return to play another season to see just 50 targets. It'll be hard for anyone to correctly predict the target share among these receivers, but Kirk is an ascending talent who's entering year three of his young career. Knowing the Cardinals receivers combined for 368 targets last year, it's hard to see a scenario where Kirk sees more targets than he did last year, especially when you know they run a lot of 4WR sets (which cuts into the overall target pie). Kirk has also scored just three touchdowns in each of his first two seasons, so touchdowns aren't likely to make up for a lower target share. He's likely going to be somewhat of a hit-or-miss WR3/4 in 2020 with inconsistent targets.

There are some who believe Edmonds is the surefire handcuff to Kenyan Drake, though I'm not entirely sure of that, as Eno Benjamin is someone who can play. Sure, he fell to the seventh round, but it's not like Edmonds is a can't-miss player. We do know the Cardinals starting position is very valuable, so once we know which player is the handcuff, they should have bench priority in case an injury should arise.

Now entering his age-37 season, we kind of know what to expect from Fitzgerald. He did see a team-high 109 targets last year, and it's difficult to say his role changed much. He's going to be the safety valve over the middle of the field while DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk work the perimeter. There were just six games that Fitzgerald broke the 50-yard barrier last year, so knowing he scored just four times, you understand the lack of upside despite his decent target share. Still, with Hopkins in the mix, that target share will certainly go down. Kyler Murray threw just 20 touchdown passes last year, so it was tough to expect more than the four that Fitzgerald scored. Even with a bump for Murray, it's tough to say the increased touchdown potential will make up for Fitzgerald's decreased target share. He's just a low-upside bye-week filler at this stage of his career. Even with an injury to someone like Hopkins or Kirk, we've already seen that scenario in 2019, and it wasn't more than a WR4-type.

Gonzalez finished as the fifth-best kicker in fantasy last year, buoyed by his 35 attempts. He also hit nearly 89% of his chances, a number inflated by the fact that the vast majority of his chances (25) came inside 40 yards. The Cardinals should have a strong offense this season, again offering Gonzalez plenty of opportunities and the chance to finish as a top-12 kicker in fantasy.

Isabella saw just 13 targets last season after being selected in the second round of the draft, and would have potentially been considered a breakout candidate in deeper leagues heading into the year. Unfortunately, with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins and the return of Larry Fitzgerald, it will be nearly impossible for Isabella to return any value this season. In dynasty leagues, he's worth holding onto, but ignore him for redraft purposes.

Do you know how many times a Cardinals tight end saw more than three targets last year? Once. It was in Week 17. How many times did they score more than 7.1 half PPR points? Three times. There's no upside or targets in Kliff Kingsbury's offense for a tight end, especially knowing they added DeAndre Hopkins to the offense.