Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0) at Los Angeles Chargers Over/Under: 47.5
Coming into the season, this would have been a game that the Chargers feared, but it doesn’t look as grim right now. The Chiefs have lost starting safety Eric Berry (who always locks down tight ends, the Chargers strength), starting cornerback Steven Nelson, starting linebacker Tamba Hali, and now starting center Mitch Morse. The Chargers just may be the unluckiest team there is, as they always seem to lose the games that come down to the final minutes. The Chiefs won both meetings last year, though they were closer than most would have though, with final scores of 33-27 and 37-27. Keep an eye on whether or not Chargers top cornerback Jason Verrett will be available for this game, as he missed the Week 2 contest against the Dolphins (editor’s note: Verrett was declared OUT on Saturday). This may seem like a no-brainer between a 2-0 team and an 0-2 team, but it’s not that simple.
QBs: Alex Smith went back to being his usual self in Week 2 and that was enough to get the win. Depending on your scoring settings, he’s either the No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy quarterback right now. In two games against the Chargers last year, Smith was on top of his game, throwing for 363 yards and two touchdowns in their first meeting and then 264 yards and two touchdowns in their second one. Oddly enough, he also rushed for a touchdown in each of those games. Here’s the stat you need to know: His two biggest games of 2016 both came against the Chargers. They obviously have a handle on how the Chargers approach games, so Smith can be streamed as a high-end QB2 in this matchup. Philip Rivers on the other hand, has always struggled with the Chiefs defense. Over the last three years, here is what Rivers averages against the Chiefs: 241.5 yards, 0.83 touchdowns, 1.17 interceptions, and just 10.7 fantasy points. Of those six games he played against them, none have produced more than 14.9 fantasy points. He’s coming back with a healthy Keenan Allen to face a defense without three of their starters, including the guy who was supposed to cover Allen, so we have to upgrade Rivers a bit. I’d prefer not to use him as a QB1 this week, but you may not have the luxury of playing another streamer, as most have bad matchups in Week 3.
RBs: The Kareem Hunt crowd was quiet for much of Sunday – that was until he blew open the game with his 58-yard touchdown. He now has 63.5 fantasy points through two weeks, while no other running back has more than 39.2 points. He’s a must-start every single week. Last week I moved him up to my No. 6 running back for the rest of the season, and this week I moved him up to No. 4. The Chargers allowed a rushing touchdown in 12 of 16 games last year, but haven’t allowed a single one through two weeks, though they haven’t been a shutdown run defense or anything. Both the Broncos (30 attempts) and Dolphins (29 attempts) rushed the ball a ton against the Chargers, so look for Hunt to see a ton of work in this game. Spencer Ware totaled 199 total yards and a touchdown against them in Week 1 last year, which should leave Hunt owners salivating. Charcandrick West didn’t touch the ball in Week 2, further solidifying Hunt’s workhorse status. Melvin Gordon is locked into his role as well, as he’s accounted for 39 of the Chargers 48 running back touches. The Chiefs aren’t a matchup you need to run from, either, as they allowed a healthy 4.45 yards per carry last season and have allowed 159 yards on 43 carries to the Patriots and Eagles running backs. Gordon scored twice against them in their Week 1 meeting last year, but didn’t play in the second game. Considering how many touches he’s getting and the high-scoring nature of their last two contests, Gordon is a rock-solid RB1, though I’d bank on Hunt having the better game.
WRs: In a great spot last week, Tyreek Hill finished with just four catches for 43 yards, making him exactly what we thought he was, a risky fantasy player. Outside of the blown coverage 75-yard touchdown against the Patriots, Hill hasn’t been the No. 1 wide receiver that the Chiefs need him to be after letting Jeremy Maclin go. The Chargers have a couple of solid perimeter cornerbacks on the roster, but Hill goes into the slot about 40 percent of the time, which is where Jarvis Landry just abused them for 13 catches. Look for Hill to be used in the slot a bit more in this game, making him a boom-or-bust WR2. His upside gives him the tiebreaker in a lot of situations. Because of Casey Hayward, it’s not a question as to whether or not you should play Chris Conley. Just don’t. This is a week where you should own so much Keenan Allen in DFS, as he should abuse backup slot cornerback Phillip Gaines. If you remember, he was benched after allowing Emmanuel Sanders 162 yards and a touchdown in primetime last year. Allen has 20 targets through two weeks, making him one of the safer plays on a weekly basis. Consider him a WR1 this week. Tyrell Williams is the one suffering while Allen sees large target numbers and it’ll be justified this week, as he’ll see a lot of Chiefs top cornerback Marcus Peters in coverage. He’ll also see Terrance Mitchell, who is more on an average talent, so there’s room for production, but he’s just a WR4/5 this week. Travis Benjamin is in the same position as Williams, but sees the field less, so unless he scores a touchdown, he’s useless in fantasy leagues. Those are the type of players you take a shot on in DFS from time-to-time, but avoid in season-long leagues.
TEs: It was good to see Travis Kelce dominate in what was a very tough matchup against the always-tough Eagles defense, especially after the Patriots made it a point to shut him down. The Chargers kept Kelce in check last year, holding him to seven catches for 82 yards in the two games combined, though he did see just nine targets. The Chargers have played against A.J. Derby and Julius Thomas over the first two weeks, so Kelce will be their first real test of 2017. Missing Denzel Perryman may haunt the Chargers a bit, as they’re relying on 2015 seventh-round pick Hayes Pullard to fill his shoes while he’s on I.R. Kelce is going to be in your lineup every week and this matchup is no different. It was good to see Antonio Gates break the record and get it out of the way, because Hunter Henry needs to see the field more often. After playing just 23 snaps in Week 1, Henry’s snap total jumped to 33 in Week 2, which was one more than Gates and he responded by hauling in all seven of his targets for 80 yards. Henry should be the favorite for targets going forward and is a solid play against an Eric Berry-less defense. In Week 17 last year, Henry and Gates combined for nine receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns. Consider Henry a low-end TE1, while Gates is going to be a touchdown-dependent TE2 going forward.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Chargers 24
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-8.5) Over/Under: 44.5
Following the Thursday night debacle that was the Bengals offense, they decided to fire offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and promote Bill Lazor to the role. This can only help, as the Bengals offense has been straight up awful. What better way to try and get it back on track than to go to Green Bay and play the Packers talent-deprived secondary. The implied total for the Bengals as I write this is just 18 points, which isn’t great, but it has gone up with the firing of Zampese. The Packers defense has now allowed 24 or more points in nine of their last 14 games, and two of those games included Brock Osweiler and Matt Barkley. If the Bengals are going to get back on track, this matchup is the spot to do it.
QBs: It’s been a rough start to the season for Andy Dalton and I’m not here to make excuses for him, but we must also keep in mind that he played against the Ravens and Texans in the first two weeks, two of the best defenses in the game. Dalton also deserves his fair share of the blame, but it’s an extremely small sample size. You have to wonder how they’ll look under Lazor this week and what the game plan will be, but you should expect a lot of A.J. Green, which almost always means good things for Dalton. I understand your concerns, but Dalton should be a great streaming option this week and an excellent DFS play who’ll be under-owned. You’re going to play Aaron Rogers, so we don’t need to talk much about him. The Bengals have been extremely hit or miss on defense over the last year, allowing three or four passing touchdowns in four contests, but just 11 passing touchdowns in the other 14 games combined. If the Packers wide receivers don’t all play, it’s fair to say that this is a week to limit your exposure to Rodgers in DFS.
RBs: The change in offensive coordinator means great things for Joe Mixon‘s potential outlook, as he’s been limited in his snaps through two weeks. The part that’s so frustrating is that they weren’t giving him a full series to see what he could do, instead subbing back and forth with Giovani Bernard, and then Jeremy Hill in short yardage situations. If they give the kid a chance to play, he’ll take the job. Because of that, he’s an upside RB3 in this matchup who I’d rather use over boring options like Theo Riddick or Terrance West. Bernard has played 62 of 125 snaps, while Mixon has played 38 and Hill has played just 25. Because of that, he should be given RB3 consideration in a matchup where they’re likely to throw the ball more than normal, especially in PPR formats. Jeremy Hill belongs on the waiver wire because even if he scores, he’ll post a line of maybe 20 yards and a touchdown. Ty Montgomery is the only Packers running back to consider at this time, as he’s played 139 of 158 possible snaps – that’s a ton. The fact that he’s on a top-five scoring offense only adds to the desire to have Montgomery in every lineup possible. The Bengals have allowed at least one running back to total 11.7 or more PPR points in each of their last 14 games, but they’ve also not allowed a running back to top 19 PPR points in their last 12 games. There is definite RB1 potential here and he should be started every single week with the snaps he’s playing.
WRs: It wasn’t until A.J. Green spoke up and said that he needs to get targeted more that the Bengals fired Zampese, and it’s wasn’t because Green is a diva, it’s just that he’s disappointed they aren’t utilizing him. The squeaky wheel gets the grease in this game and Green just happens to play much better on the road over the course of his career, averaging 98 yards and 0.65 touchdowns per game, compared to 70 yards and 0.48 touchdowns per game at home. Weird, I know. He’s an elite WR1 this week. Brandon LaFell has seen 12 targets through two games for whatever reason, but has just 54 yards on them. John Ross made his NFL debut last week and proceeded to fumble when handed an end-around, leading him to the bench for the rest of the game. They need playmakers on the field, so look for Ross to find his way back this week. Both he and LaFell are just punt plays in DFS and should be an afterthought in season-long. If you’re in a deep league that starts five wide receivers, LaFell deserves consideration in a great matchup. It seems like Jordy Nelson is expected to play. If he plays, he’ll draw Dre Kirkpatrick for a majority of the day, who is beatable in coverage, but it’s fair to wonder how effective Nelson would be. It’s a week to avoid Nelson in DFS, even if he does play. Davante Adams would be the main beneficiary if Nelson is out slowed down, but he plays a majority of his snaps on Adam Jones’ side of the field, which is the toughest matchup. You’d have to think the Packers would move Adams around the field if Nelson is out, though, making Adams a must-play WR2 in this game. Randall Cobb apparently left Week 2 with limited damage to his shoulder and is considered day-to-day at this point. He’d match up with Darqueze Dennard, which is one of the best matchups on the field. If he practices throughout this week, consider Cobb a solid WR3 (editor’s note: Cobb is now listed as doubtful). If not, he becomes a risk/reward WR3/4. If either Nelson or Cobb miss this game (or both), Geronimo Allison has streaming appeal. He saw five targets in a game where he came in relief and wasn’t part of the gameplan. If Nelson and Cobb miss this game, I’d argue that Allison becomes a must-play WR3. Here’s to hoping we get word before kickoff on Sunday morning.
TEs: It appears that Tyler Eifert is highly questionable for this game, which is something his owners have heard all too often before. It’s odd to hear, but the Packers aren’t a great matchup for tight ends. Since the start of Week 3 last year, they have allowed just two touchdowns to tight ends, which is where Eifert makes his money. Combining that with his injuries and he’s likely outside the TE1 territory this week. It was such a disappointing game for Martellus Bennett last week, as he just seemed sluggish throughout the whole game like he was out of shape or something. He saw a league-high 11 targets at the tight end position last week, though he turned them into just five receptions for 47 yards. Still, a tight end who is seeing over eight targets per game from Aaron Rodgers needs to remain in lineups, especially in a game against the Bengals who are still without their best linebacker Vontaze Burfict. They allowed an average of 72 yards per game to tight ends last year, which was among the most in the league. After facing Nick Boyle and Evan Baylis in the first two weeks, their numbers against tight ends look good, but it’s a matchup to attack. He’s a TE1 and needs to be played.
Prediction: Packers 27, Bengals 23
Oakland Raiders (-3.0) at Washington Redskins Over/Under: 54.0
Now that the Raiders have had their bye week (I kid), they get another exploitable fantasy matchup against the Redskins. The over/under on this game is a lot higher than I would’ve imagined, but it is what it is. You want to start many of your fantasy players in this matchup. The Redskins have not only allowed 50 points to the Eagles and Rams, but they just lost inside linebacker Mason Foster to a separated shoulder. This linebacker corps cannot afford to be short one of their top players against the star-studded Raiders offense. Meanwhile, the Raiders are a healthy team for the most part. The line on this game might be higher as the game approaches.
QBs: Just one week after throwing three touchdowns on just 28 pass attempts, Derek Carr will look to build on that against a Redskins team that’s allowed 8.3 yards per attempt to the combination of Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. The Redskins have allowed seven of the last 10 quarterbacks they’ve played to throw for at least 300 yards. In a game that has the highest implied total (not even close) of the week, Carr is locked in as a QB1 this week. You can also say that Kirk Cousins should be considered as a QB1 against a Raiders defense that’s coming off a game in which they allowed Josh McCown to throw for two touchdowns. The issue with trusting Cousins comes down to his wide receiver play, which has been less-than-ideal to this point, as Terrelle Pryor looks like a guy who’s still learning to play the position and Jamison Crowder has been working his way back from a hip injury. Still, the Raiders are going to score points on this defense, so the Redskins won’t be able to run the ball 36 times like they did against the Rams last week. Cousins is a low-end QB1 that comes with some risk, but also a higher ceiling than most in that range.
RBs: It wasn’t quite the mammoth performance that we were expecting from Lynch last week, but once Michael Crabtree hauled in two touchdowns early in the game, the writing was on the wall for the Raiders to preserve Lynch. Get back on that Lynch train this week, though, as the Redskins allowed 4.6 yards per carry last year and 20 touchdowns to the running back position. That’s bled into this season as they’ve allowed three touchdowns already, including two to Todd Gurley last week. They were missing the presence of Su’a Cravens at linebacker and now they’ll miss Mason Foster, who was their best linebacker last year. Lynch is squarely in the RB1 conversation. Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington are just handcuffs who should not be used in season-long or DFS. The Redskins running back situation is a bit cloudy at this moment, as Robert Kelley is being called day-to-day and this game isn’t until Sunday night. If he’s out, Perine becomes a must-play RB2 against the Raiders in a high-scoring affair. Kelley looked good for the first time in a while against the Rams, but it’s hard to trust him even if he does go, as it was initially feared that he fractured a rib. With Perine readily available, it’s unlikely Kelley has a big role if he does play. The Raiders did allow 11 running backs to accumulate 15 or more PPR points against them last year, mainly due to the 18 touchdowns they allowed, including five receiving, which is where Chris Thompson comes into play. The game-script should favor his role this week, making him an RB3 in standard leagues and a rock-solid flex option in PPR formats. His role isn’t going to drastically change whether or not Kelley plays, so expect somewhere in the range of 10-12 touches. He’s not going to score once every four touches as he’s done so far.
WRs: Just one week after hauling in three touchdowns, Michael Crabtree will now be crowned as “the Raiders wide receiver to own.” While we’ve been here before, think of it this way – Crabtree just got three touchdowns out of the way, paving the way for Amari Cooper. I kid, kind of. Cooper is the one you should prefer this week, as he only lines up on Josh Norman’s side of the field about 25 percent. Meanwhile, Crabtree will see Norman about 50 percent of the time. The fact that the Redskins still refuse to use Norman in shadow coverage is comical. It’s the reason Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, Stefon Diggs, Odell Beckham, and Cameron Meredith were able to go for 100-plus yards against them last year. Cooper is a must-start WR1 and Crabtree is in the WR2 range with the way he dominates red zone work. Seth Roberts has only seen two targets this season, so he’s off the radar, even though he tends to score a touchdown from time-to-time. This is a spot where Terrelle Pryor should live up to the draft capital you spent on him, as the Raiders really struggle to stop wide receivers who can go deep. They allowed just three wide receivers to total more than 70 yards over the final 12 weeks of last season and they were Marqise Lee, Ted Ginn, and T.Y. Hilton. If there’s one thing we know Pryor can do, it’s burn a cornerback deep. Consider him as a WR2 in this contest. Jamison Crowder looked much better last week, though he saw just five targets, limiting his production. He’ll see a lot of T.J. Carrie in the slot, who was prone to allowing big plays last year, as evidenced by his 21.1 yards per reception allowed. Consider Crowder a WR3 with upside this week. Ryan Grant is going to start sharing snaps with Josh Doctson, who is arguably the most talented receiver on the roster. His snaps went up from 20 in Week 1, to 29 in Week 2. He’s a name to keep an eye on, as Pryor has struggled in the role they expected him to handle. He’s not playable yet, but definitely rosterable in 12-team leagues.
TEs: Through two weeks, Jared Cook has seen 11 targets from Derek Carr, which is going to eventually lead to results. I mean, he does have nine receptions for 81 yards, but nothing of significance in fantasy just yet. That may change this week, as the Redskins are a team who is continually pummeled by opposing tight ends, having allowed 11 tight ends to record more than 50 yards in their last 18 games. Keep in mind that with Cravens and Foster on the field last year, they allowed 1,100 yards to tight ends. Cook makes for a solid streamer this week in season-long and a solid tournament play. It seems like Jordan Reed is going to be extremely questionable for this game and that’s too bad, because the matchup is a solid one. As mentioned earlier, the Raiders really struggle over the middle and deep, which is precisely where Reed is utilized. He’s had two brutal matchups which has led fantasy players to believe he’s not worth playing, but the Rams and Eagles are two tight end stopping teams. He may be playing at less than 100 percent with his foot injury and now that he’s dealing with a chest injury that has him missing practice time, you may need to find alternative options. Seeing that it’s a Sunday night game, option are usually limited, but his opponent Jared Cook is available in a ton of leagues, as is Vernon Davis, who could both be used as replacements if Reed is out.
Prediction: Raiders 30, Redskins 24
Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) at Arizona Cardinals Over/Under: 47.0
It was a nightmare for the Cowboys last week, as they not only got pounced by the Broncos, but one of their stars (Ezekiel Elliott) is all over sports-talk shows this week for giving up on a few plays and not chasing down a defender who intercepted a Dak Prescott pass. Apparently, Prescott hurt his ankle a little bit in that game, though he appears to be on track to play against the Cardinals on Monday night. Speaking of nightmares, the Cardinals are coming off an embarrassingly close game against the Colts last week. They have so many injuries on the offensive side of the ball, they look like a shell of the team they were just one year ago. David Johnson, John Brown, their best offensive lineman Mike Iupati, the list goes on and on. In what would have been a prime matchup at the start of last year, this seems like a matchup where whoever loses, their season is officially unhinged.
QBs: It’s been a brutal schedule to open the season for Prescott, but he’s managed to get through it as the No. 11 quarterback thus far, which is impressive against the Giants and Broncos. The Cardinals are no easy task, either, but this matchup isn’t as daunting as it once was. After holding opposing quarterbacks to just 10 passing touchdowns in their first 12 games last year, they’ve now allowed 15 passing scores in their last six games, and that includes a zero from Jared Goff in Week 17 and a zero from Jacoby Brissett last week. Prescott doesn’t exactly fit in with the conversation of those two quarterbacks. The loss of Calais Campbell was apparent in the Week 1 game against Matthew Stafford when he had time to throw for almost 300 yards and four touchdowns, so why are we to believe they can get to Prescott, who sits behind the Cowboys uber-talented offensive line? This game being in Arizona hurts his outlook a bit, but again, it’s not a bad matchup by any means. Consider him a high-end QB2 in this game. Carson Palmer has now blundered two plus matchups against the Lions and Colts, so it’s hard to love him against the Cowboys, especially if he’ll be without the services of John Brown for another week. Getting Iupati back would be big, as they’re forced to rely on the recently cut Alex Boone to take his place at left guard. The Cowboys defense is nothing like it was last year, as evidenced when they were tore up by Trevor Siemian last week, but Palmer also isn’t the same quarterback he once was. Consider him just a mediocre QB2 in this matchup.
RBs: It’ll be interesting to see how the Cowboys handle the whole “giving up on his teammates” argument with Ezekiel Elliott, but my guess is that it’s all left in the past. After all, he’s a guy who helped them make it into the playoffs last year. If there’s one thing the Cardinals have done well this year, it’s limit the opponent’s run game. They have allowed just 2.34 yards per carry through two weeks, although we have to remember that both games were against subpar offensive lines, whereas the Cowboys blocking is on a whole different level. Elliott should be started confidently in season-long leagues, but there’s better options to use in DFS this week, though he may have lower ownership than usual, which is appealing. The Cardinals backfield is a mess, as Kerwynn Williams blundered his opportunity ahead of Chris Johnson and now appears to be his backup. It’s a timeshare, at best, which means it’s one to avoid if possible. The Cardinals aren’t likely to run many plays in this game, as the Cowboys manage the clock better than anyone in the league. Andre Ellington could see extended work if the Cardinals fall behind, but this is just a game to avoid their backfield. Let’s see how they split the snaps this week before making any decisions.
WRs: As it’s been for the last two weeks, Dez Bryant has another dance with a top-10 cornerback in the league, Patrick Peterson. While he allowed a touchdown to Marvin Jones in Week 1, it was on a broken play where Matthew Stafford was scrambling and Peterson just lost him in the shuffle. Still, Bryant can score a touchdown at any given time, just look at last week when he snagged a touchdown over Aqib Talib, who is also a top-10 cornerback in the league. You don’t need to completely avoid Bryant because of his touchdown abilities, but expectations need to be kept in check. He’s a WR2, even in a tough matchup. Terrance Williams is interesting because he’ll match-up with Justin Bethel, who was burned for two touchdowns against Kenny Golladay in Week 1 and then played the Colts in Week 2. He’s on the streaming radar as someone to use if you may not have Jordy Nelson or Corey Davis this week. It’s frightening to rely on him as anything more than a WR4, but the matchup is great. Meanwhile, Cole Beasley will see Tyrann Mathieu in the slot and on top of that, Beasley seems like an afterthought in the offense who’ll start losing snaps to rookie Ryan Switzer if it persists. Larry Fitzgerald had two pristine matchups through the first two weeks, but walked away from them with just nine catches for 95 yards on 19 targets. Dating back to last year, here are Fitzgerald’s last 13 games: 122 targets, 85 receptions, 757 yards, and one touchdown, or 6.1 fantasy points per game. It seems that father-time has caught up with the 34-year-old. The Cowboys secondary is not what it was last year and on top of that, they are banged up, leaving Fitzgerald with another plus-matchup. It’s difficult to trust him as anything more than a WR3, but if you don’t put him in your lineup now, you likely never will again. If he has a solid outing on prime television this week, put your feelers out there to see what you can get in a trade. Did you know that J.J. Nelson has been the No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy football from Week 14 of 2016 through Week 2 of 2017? It’s crazy, but true. How do you not start him as at least a WR3 against the Cowboys? Jaron Brown finally got some targets in Week 2, 11 of them to be exact, but turned them into just four receptions, though he did average 18.2 yards per reception. I just don’t see a way for three wide receivers to be relevant for the Cardinals this week, making him just unplayable in fantasy this week.
TEs: It’s somewhat of a miracle that 35-year-old Jason Witten leads all tight ends in fantasy scoring, and not just by a little either. His 27.6 fantasy points are 24 percent more than the next closest tight end, Rob Gronkowski. I said prior to the season that Witten offers your fantasy team stability at a very unstable position, but at no point did I expect this. Oddly enough, this is a week where you should look elsewhere, as the Cardinals are among the best in the league at stopping tight ends. Before Jack Doyle posted 79 yards last week, the Cardinals hadn’t allowed a tight end to top 53 yards since Week 15 of 2015. For those counting at home, that was 19 games in a row. Betting on Witten to accomplish that seems unlikely, as does banking on him to score a touchdown because the Cardinals have allowed just two of them to tight ends the last 18 games. He’s just a TE2 this week. It seems like Jermaine Gresham may miss another week, though it’s hard to trust him even when he’s fully healthy, so just avoid him all together. In his absence, there were just three tight end targets, meaning you shouldn’t consider any of them.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, Cardinals 20
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers Over/Under: 39.5
The NFL heard your complaints about last Thursday night’s game and thought, “You think this is bad? Wait until you see what we have for you next week.” It’s going to be hard for the Rams and 49ers to look worse than the Bengals and Texans did, but what we do know is that it won’t be the Packers and the Falcons. Instead, we have two teams who are in the rebuilding process with new young head coaches in place. The Rams got Aaron Donald back on the defensive line in Week 2, but their top cornerback Trumaine Johnson left with what seemed to be a lower body injury. He was the defensive player of the week back in Week 1, so it would be a big loss if he were to be out. They were missing their No. 2 cornerback Kayvon Webster last week as well, so it could be a very shallow secondary if they both had to miss this game.
QBs: Through two weeks, Jared Goff looks at least competent in Sean McVay’s offense that is built around helping the quarterback succeed. With that, he’ll have a solid matchup once again this week, as the 49ers aren’t known to be one of the better secondaries in the league. Still, they have held Cam Newton and Russell Wilson to just 369 yards passing with three touchdowns over the first two weeks of the season, meaning you should probably dial back expectations for Goff. This will also be his first away game of the season and a divisional game at that, so Goff is just a low-end QB2 in this showdown, though a safe one in 2QB formats. Brian Hoyer went from a guy who was extremely competent as a spot-starter, to one who looks like he shouldn’t be starting games for anyone. Through two weeks, he’s thrown for just 292 yards on 62 attempts (4.7 YPA) and doesn’t have a single touchdown. We knew his receiving options were limited, but a lot of this is on him. Even if the Rams are down their top two cornerbacks, it’ll be hard to see him stay upright against Aaron Donald and the Rams pass-rush. You want no part of Hoyer until he gets in-sync with his pass catchers.
RBs: Todd Gurley has had two phenomenal matchups to start his season and he gets the trifecta here. The Colts, Redskins, and 49ers were all in the bottom-six versus fantasy running backs last year and the 49ers will be without first-round pick Rueben Foster for this game, as well as starting strong safety Eric Reid. Through two weeks, the Panthers and Seahawks running backs combined for 68 touches against the 49ers, meaning Gurley should get as many touches as possible once again. He’s the No. 2 running back over the first two weeks and has accumulated 43 touches. He’s an RB1 by default, though I’d look to sell him after this game as his schedule gets brutal for a two-month stretch. Malcolm Brown is merely a handcuff who gives Gurley breathers from time-to-time. If you don’t see Carlos Hyde as a strong RB2 every single week after his 143-yard performance against the Seahawks last week, you never will. The matchup against the Rams isn’t the best on paper, but it should also be a competitive game throughout, meaning Hyde should see plenty of touches. Throughout the first two weeks, the Colts were able to accumulate 22 carries, while the Redskins totaled 36 of them. Hyde is an RB1 in this matchup and should score his first touchdown of the season. Matt Breida is going to have a role each week, but not enough where you can confidently insert him into lineups.
WRs: Last week I said it was very possible that Cooper Kupp is the wide receiver who’ll be the most consistent fantasy option in the passing game and he was the top performer for the second straight week, though it was just three catches for 33 yards. He saw a team-high six targets, showing the confidence that Goff has in him. He’ll match-up with K’Waun Williams in the slot and it’s one the Rams should target, as Williams is a former undrafted free agent from 2014 who wouldn’t be starting on 90 percent of other teams. If you have Sammy Watkins, play him as a WR3 in this matchup. It’s hard to say that he’s more than that because of how much Goff likes Kupp, but Watkins should see a season-high in targets this week (not that it’s much, as six targets would qualify). The 49ers have only been able to sack the quarterback three times through two games, meaning Goff should have time to allow Watkins to operate. I’d like to say he’s a WR2, but we simply haven’t seen enough. Robert Woods made a lot of errors in Week 2 and shouldn’t be considered in fantasy leagues. The only wide receiver who makes sense to consider for the 49ers is Pierre Garcon, who should have a lot more room to operate against the Rams after matching up with the Seahawks secondary. If Johnson is out, Garcon should be started as a strong WR3 in standard leagues and a WR2 in PPR formats. Even if Johnson plays, Garcon should be considered as a starter if you have three wide receiver slots, as his floor is five catches for 50 yards. Marquise Goodwin is the best bet if you’re looking for that obscure touchdown on the Thursday night game, but he’s looked lost throughout the first two games.
TEs: It seems like Gerald Everett has been taking the spotlight, but know that he’s only been playing 38 percent of the snaps, while Tyler Higbee has been on the field 82 percent of the time. Everett has the edge in targets, but with that snap percentage, it’s best to avoid this timeshare. On the other side of the field, it’s George Kittle who’s the primary tight end for the 49ers. He’s seen a respectable eight targets through two games, but has turned them into just 40 yards. The Rams have been a top-10 team against tight ends and just held Jordan Reed to six catches for 48 yards. There are much better tight ends to play this week.
Prediction: Rams 20, 49ers 17
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.