While there are still four teams on byes, there isn’t much in the way of talent missing so this slate is loaded with quality plays. Distinguishing between them will be the real challenge at hand, and the fact that the top tight end and defense/special teams plays of the year happen to fall this week will force us to use value at other positions. Let’s take a look at how it all comes together.
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Quarterback
Alex Smith (KC): $7,900 @ NYG
You can make a case for a number of cash game quarterbacks this week from Tom Brady and Dak Prescott to even Blake Bortles and Kirk Cousins. Smith takes the cake, however, because of his consistency. He is the only quarterback in football this year who has at least 15 fantasy points in every game. In order to hit cash game value, he needs 15.8 points, which seems like a virtual lock against a lousy Giants’ defense.
Running Back
Jerick McKinnon (MIN): $6,400 vs LAR
Running back is a nightmare this week. If you spend up, you are looking at the entirely unreliable Kareem Hunt, an injured Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley against the toughest run defense in football, or perhaps LeSean McCoy who has been an RB1 just three times all season and is playing the only team in the NFL who has shut down Leonard Fournette all season. Rather, I’ll be saving some money for all of the other positions by spending down here. McKinnon is a sure bet to get 12 to 20 touches as he has every week since Dalvin Cook went down with an injury. Add in the fact that the Rams can’t tackle and the anticipated game script has it likely for McKinnon to get extra work and he seems like a good bet to reach value.
Isaiah Crowell (CLE): $5,500 vs JAC
It is hard to be excited about Crowell any week with how uninspiring he was for most of the season, but the matter of the fact is that he has been playing much better football of late and has a solid matchup against a Jags team who have given up RB1 performances to Austin Ekeler and Elijah McGuire among many others. Then there is the heavy wind and snow expected for this game. If you expect the Browns to pass more than 25 times in those conditions against Jacksonville then you are in for quite a surprise.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas (NO): $8,600 vs WAS
If you are looking at this on paper and think Josh Norman, you are doing it wrong. Josh Norman does not shadow. In fact, he has only moved away from his side of the field once all season. Michael Thomas plays on the other side which means Breshad Breeland. Thomas should have an absolute heyday against him. I started my lineup with Thomas and went from there.
Mike Evans (TB): $7,800 @ MIA
There isn’t a ton of value that I love on this slate at wide receiver so Evans is a near must-play for me. He is coming off the suspension and gets a defense that has been humiliated on prime-time television each of the past two weeks. Evans will help continue that trend as he sees double-digit targets and likely finds his way back into the end zone.
DeVante Parker (MIA): $6,200 vs TB
I’m having a hard time not getting 100% exposure on Parker in both cash games and GPP lineups this weekend. I just believe in his Week 11 production too much to fade him anywhere. Not only does he have 66 or more receiving yards in every start this season, but if you pro-rate his starts to a full 9 games, he would be among the top 10 in yards. This week, he will be covered by two players 7 and 8 inches shorter than him so multiple touchdowns are on the table on top of his apparent 60-yard floor.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,500 @ NYG
While you shouldn’t immediately dismiss Cameron Brate, Tyler Kroft, Jared Cook or Rob Gronkowski, who are all in terrific situations, the obvious choice is still Kelce who has what may be the top matchup of the season. The Giants have allowed a top 12 fantasy tight end every single week this season and that includes some real lousy tight ends in there. Kelce is a virtual lock to be a top 5 tight end and may even outscore all the wide receivers too.
Kicker
Randy Bullock (CIN): $4,500 @ DEN
Beware of some challenging weather conditions this week. Bullock is one of the kickers in top-notch weather conditions where it isn’t too cold or windy, plus he goes up against Denver who is one of the only five teams in football who are allowing at least 10 fantasy points per game to kickers.
Defense
Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC): $5,600 @ CLE
This is really simple, and it seems like I say it every week, but it entirelyrly true. The Jags have what may be the best defense we have seen in two decades. They also play the Browns this weekend who have probably the worst starting quarterback in football, and the game will be played in heavy wind and some snow. Don’t get cute. You know what to do.
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Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.
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