It’s hard to believe we’re at the end of the fantasy season. That means we’ve been here for 16 weeks, or four months, writing a total of roughly 350,000 words. Since we’re all into stats and whatnot, if I wrote the national average speed of 38 words per minute, all of the primers would have taken 9,211 minutes, or 153.5 hours, or 6.4 straight 24-hour days. Keep in mind that’s the easy part – writing. The longest part is the research that goes into it. For you guys to come and consume this article every week… thank you.
Considering how well this article did this year, we’ll be right back next year. I understand it’s hard to share your favorite fantasy information with people who are your competitors, but just know that we stick around because of you and your willingness to read/share the articles. The Primer is something I wanted to do, as a way to connect with each and every one of you, not just players who might be on some of your teams.
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In case you missed it the other week, I will not be doing The Primer for Week 17, but will be doing a DFS Primer for the first two weeks of the playoffs. If you’re new here, where the heck have you been? But seriously, here’s what to expect. Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s a place you can come to read about any fantasy relevant player with a non-biased opinion. It’s all about the process, even though the results may not always be optimal. The idea is to give you as much confidence as possible when hitting that ‘submit lineup’ button. With that, let’s talk Week 16.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday Game)
Total: 41.5
Line: BAL by 13.5
QBs
Jacoby Brissett: The wheels have completely fallen off the Colts offense, which is led by Brissett, who has now thrown just two touchdowns over the last four weeks. He’s also failed to throw for 200 yards in any of those games, and isn’t rushing as much as we initially thought he would. In fact, when watching him, he appears to move like a 35-year-old quarterback than the 25-year-old that he is. It’s why he’s failed to rush for more than 36 yards all season. The Ravens did lose Jimmy Smith in their secondary and it did hurt, however they looked just fine against DeShone Kizer and the Browns offense last week, holding him to just 146 yards on 37 pass attempts, with no touchdowns and two interceptions. That was on the road, too, while this game is at home. It’s likely why the Colts implied team total is just 14.0 points. He’s not even a good option in 2QB leagues.
Joe Flacco: Since asking for the offense to open-up, Flacco has completed 69-of-113 passes for 826 yards (7.31 YPA) with five touchdowns and one interception. His top three fantasy performances this year have come in the last three weeks. Now that he’s going to play against the Colts, you need to consider him if you’re one who streams quarterbacks. The Colts have allowed 11-of-14 quarterbacks to finish inside the top-15 quarterbacks this year, including Brock Osweiler, who played a partial game last week. In fact, there’s been just three quarterbacks who have averaged less than 7.4 yards per attempt against them, and they were DeShone Kizer, Tom Savage, and Nathan Peterman (in the snow game). Flacco is a high-end QB2, and one that can be considered a streaming quarterback in 1QB leagues.
RBs
Frank Gore and Marlon Mack: This is the last hurrah for Gore, as he’s likely playing in his second-to-last game, though this one is highly unlikely to give him the “bang” that most would like. The Ravens really struggled earlier in the year without Brandon Williams on the defensive line, allowing 613 yards (4.35 YPC) and four touchdowns in the four games he was out, but have got back on track with him and have allowed 730 yards (3.71 YPC) with eight touchdowns in the 10 games with him. They’ve obviously allowed plenty of touchdowns, but knowing that this is a road game in Baltimore as a heavy underdog with an implied team total of 14… Gore is not someone you want to start in fantasy championships. He’s just a low-upside RB4, while Mack is a punt-play who offers more big play potential. I’d rather roster him than Gore considering the lack of upside that Gore offers, but neither are ideal.
Alex Collins, Danny Woodhead, and Javorius Allen: It was the first time in a while where Collins struggled, leading to Allen racking up 13 carries in Week 15. That’s a big concern for our confidence in playing Collins, though I’d trot him back out there in this matchup. The Colts defense has been littered with injuries, leading them to allow 196 yards to the Broncos running backs last week, and 192 to the Bills running backs the prior week. It’s important to know that each team had 42 carries, but that’s still an accomplishment. Collins had at least 13.7 PPR points in each of the last four games before Week 15, and it’s likely that he gets back on track. I’d insert him into lineups as an RB2. If you’re in a real pinch with injuries, Allen can be considered as a last-ditch RB4 option who could split some of the work with Collins if they get out to a big lead. Woodhead is an afterthought and shouldn’t be anywhere near your starting lineup.
WRs
T.Y. Hilton: It’s now been 8-of-9 games with 51 yards or less for Hilton, including six games with less than 30 yards. It’s gotten to the point where Hilton is a matchup-play, and this isn’t necessarily one to target, though it looks better than it did just a few weeks ago. With Jimmy Smith out, the Ravens are without their best cornerback, but they’ve held every receiver not named Antonio Brown in check over the last two weeks, and that’s while Ben Roethlisberger threw the ball 66 times for 506 yards. Just last week, we saw Josh Gordon get 11 targets, but turned them into 5/47/0. Hilton is the type of player who can pay off in one play, as he did against the Jaguars a few weeks ago, but I’m not betting on it while outdoors in Baltimore in late December. He’s just a risky low-end WR3/high-end WR4.
Mike Wallace: Since Maclin decided to stop playing football (I’m kidding, kind of), Wallace has stepped up as the No. 1 wide receiver for the Ravens, and now has at least 72 yards in three straight games. His matchups have been pristine (DET, PIT, CLE), but the fact that he’s involved as much as he is gives us confidence playing him. He should be looked at as a WR3 against the Colts, as they’ve allowed 25 different wide receivers finish as top-36 options against them this year. It seems like Rashaan Melvin will return for the Colts, which does lower his potential ceiling, but still feel he’s got a semi-safe floor.
Jeremy Maclin: We don’t even know if he’ll play in this game, but even if he does, you can’t trust a receiver who’s failed to top 41 yards since way back in Week 9 and hasn’t scored since Week 8. His knee injury won’t magically get better in six days, so feel free to look elsewhere.
TEs
Jack Doyle: It’s been a frustrating year for all Colts pass-catchers, and Doyle is no different, though he’s been the best of the bunch. It’s because he’s been seeing somewhat consistent targets, which is what’s needed as a tight end. He’s seen at least five targets in 11 of his last 12 games, something not many tight ends can say. When the Ravens face a tight end who is targeted, they tend to struggle, as they’ve allowed a 70 percent completion rate to them. Quarterbacks have a 105.0 rating when targeting them in coverage, so it would be wise for the Colts to attack that part of the defense. Doyle is the only Colts skill position player I’d be okay starting, though he’s just a low-end TE1 because of the little scoring opportunities.
Ben Watson: Whew, it was a scary thing recommending Watson last week, but I’m glad he came through against the helpless Browns. Unfortunately, the Colts aren’t as appetizing of a matchup, as they’ve allowed just three top-10 tight ends all season. Looking at Watson’s successful games this year, they came against the Browns, Lions, Dolphins, and Jaguars (garbage time), all teams who really struggle to stop opposing tight ends. He’s more intriguing if Maclin misses the game, but you can likely do better than him in your fantasy championship.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (Saturday Game)
Total: 40.5
Line: MIN by 8.5
QBs
Case Keenum: Even in a game that he essentially played one half, Keenum delivered a great fantasy performance and has now scored at least 17 fantasy points in each of his last seven games. His chemistry has grown with Thielen and Rudolph, though he and Diggs haven’t quite got there yet. Against the Packers, this is another week to play America’s favorite quarterback. The Packers have allowed each of the last four quarterbacks they’ve played to score at least 17.3 points, including 28.5 to Ben Roethlisberger and 31.5 to Cam Newton last week. I mean, this is the same team that allowed DeShone Kizer to throw three touchdowns just two weeks ago. You should make sure to check the weather for this game, as it’s reportedly going to be in the single-digits, which isn’t very good for passing games. On top of that, it’s a divisional game, which is always interesting because the teams both know each other extremely well. Keenum is in the low-end QB1 conversation, but pay attention to the variables.
Brett Hundley: Welcome back, Mr. Hundley. We did not miss you in the fantasy football circle. Ok, that’s mean. I’m sorry. But seriously, your return just means that we don’t get to watch the GOAT play football again this season. Instead, we’re forced to watch Hundley, who by the way, has yet to throw a touchdown pass in Lambeau Field this year. He’s started four games there, throwing five interceptions but no touchdowns. His latest game there was against the Bucs, who allow over 30 points per game on the road. In that game, he completed 13-of-22 passes for 84 yards. Mmmhmm. Starting him against the Vikings wouldn’t be one of the smartest decisions in your life. There have been just three quarterbacks who’ve thrown more than one touchdown against them this season.
RBs
Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray: When looking at potential game-scripts here, it seems that this would be a Murray game while the Vikings try to wind down the clock against the Packers. The only issue with thinking that way is because we’ve already seen this matchup before and it didn’t end well for Murray. In their Week 6 game, he totaled just 28 scoreless yards on 15 carries, while McKinnon racked up 69 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, with another 30 yards and a touchdown through the air. Things have changed a bit since then, but it may tell you that the Packers defensive line matches up well with the Vikings offensive line in base formations, which is what Murray is often run out of. It’s a very small sample size, so we don’t want to automatically assume that is the case, but it’s a warning for sure. For example, Jordan Howard in two games against the Packers this year: 18/53/1 in game one, 15/54/0 in game two. Murray should be considered an RB3, while McKinnon is a low-end RB2 who has looked really good as of late, racking up 114 yards through the air last week. The Packers have allowed 722 yards (5th-most) through the air to running backs, along with five touchdowns (2nd-most).
Jamaal Williams: Oddly enough, the player whose outlook improves the most without Aaron Rodgers is Williams, as he’ll get carries in the red zone, whereas the Packers were likely to throw with Rodgers under center. He’s likely to have less trips to the red zone, but you’ve already seen what he can do with Hundley under center. The issue is that the Vikings run-defense has been the best in the league when it comes to fantasy. They’ve allowed an average of just 13.8 fantasy points per game to running backs, and keep in mind that’s to the entire team, not just one running back. The silver lining is that Jonathan Stewart was able to score three touchdowns against them just two weeks ago, which almost matched their season total coming into that game. They also let Giovani Bernard sneak one in garbage time last week, so again, they’re not unbeatable. In the last five games he played with Hundley, Williams averaged 19.0 carries and 3.6 receptions, so feel free to start him as a low-end RB2, especially if the weather is as brutal as they’re expecting.
WRs
Adam Thielen: Go figure – one of the best matchups all year for Thielen, and he finishes with season-low in targets (5), receptions (3), and yards (30). That’s something that can happen when your opponent fails to show up, leaving the Vikings to play a dumbed-down offense the majority of the game, especially considering the Bengals were down to just two healthy linebackers in that game. The Packers don’t have the pieces to stop Thielen, as evidenced by the last two times they’ve played against him. In those games, he’s totaled 12/202/2 and 9/96/0. You need to have Thielen in your lineups as a low-end WR1 this week.
Stefon Diggs: While Diggs can beat a lot of defensive backs in coverage, the Vikings may choose to go the easier route with Thielen this week. I say that because Damarious Randall has played well over the last two weeks, holding Josh Gordon and Devin Funchess to just two catches for 32 yards on six targets in his coverage. I’m not worried about Randall, as Diggs is a far-superior talent, but again, this comes down to attacking your opponent’s biggest weakness, and we saw the Panthers do that last week with Damiere Byrd and Christian McCaffrey out of the slot. Diggs is still in the WR3 range because of his skill-level, but he’s far from a sure thing. He’s a player I’d love to roster in some DFS tournaments.
Davante Adams: Call me crazy, but I think it’s a long-shot that Adams plays this week. He suffered his second concussion of the season last week, and both have been absolutely brutal. This one was a dirty blindside helmet-to-helmet hit by Thomas Davis, one of the hardest hitting linebackers in the league. If he plays, you have to play him, as he’s the only wide receiver who’s shown chemistry with Hundley. The Vikings will likely have Xavier Rhodes cover him as they did in their Week 6 meeting when Hundley took over, where Adams was able to finish with five catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. I wouldn’t expect more than WR3-type numbers, but a guy who sees 8-10 targets per game has to be played.
Jordy Nelson: Back to fantasy irrelevance, though even Aaron Rodgers couldn’t spark any value for Nelson. Feel free to look elsewhere for a wide receiver in fantasy this week. Nelson hasn’t finished with more than 35 yards in any of the seven games that Hundley has started, so thinking it would start against the Vikings wouldn’t make much sense.
Randall Cobb: Oddly enough, Cobb was not affected by the move to Hundley as much as Nelson was. He’s totaled at least 52 yards in three of the seven starts with Hundley, though he was able to have those totals because of some big plays. In those games he hit plays of 38, 39, and 46 yards, which is why they look good from first glance. Because of that, Cobb is just a risky WR4/WR5 for the championship week, though he should get a bump in targets if Adams is out.
TEs
Kyle Rudolph: We didn’t think Rudolph was going to play last week, as he was reportedly dealing with an ankle sprain that had him listed as doubtful on Friday. He wound up playing 20-of-65 snaps in what was a blowout, so they may have just pulled him as a precaution, though he did score a touchdown for the fourth straight game. His chemistry has grown with Keenum as the season’s gone on, and it’s shown in the box score, as he’s been the No. 4 tight end since the start of Week 5, ahead of Evan Engram and Zach Ertz. The weather forecasted for this game is worrisome for a player who is dealing with an ankle sprain, so approach with caution, especially if he misses practice throughout the week. If he gets in a full practice, you can feel much better about inserting him as a TE1 against the Packers, who are fresh off a game where they allowed Greg Olsen nine catches for 116 yards and a touchdown.
Lance Kendricks: We’re back to tight end irrelevance with the Packers now that Hundley is back under center. From Week 6-14, there wasn’t a single tight end who scored more than 5.2 PPR points for the Packers. Think about that for a minute. It’s pretty hard to keep tight ends that quiet, but Hundley has done it.
Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans
Total: 49.0
Line: LAR by 6.5
QBs
Jared Goff: The Rams still haven’t locked up their division, but they’re close. Entering this week, there are a lot of concerns, but I don’t think Goff is one of them. The Titans showed last week the defense they’ve been all season – playing extremely well against the run, but struggling versus the pass. They’ve allowed 23 passing scores on the season, including four touchdowns to three different quarterbacks. While some may say they’ve looked better, allowing just two passing touchdowns over their last four games, but here’s their competition: Jacoby Brissett, Tom Savage, Blaine Gabbert, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Keep in mind that two of them threw for 360-plus yards (Savage and Jesus, I mean Garoppolo). Now with Robert Woods back, you can start Goff confidently as a low-end QB1.
Marcus Mariota: It may have been Mariota’s best game of the year last week, though that’s not saying much. He threw for 241 yards and two touchdowns against the weak 49ers secondary, though it wasn’t all pretty. When watching Mariota, he just looks a step behind everything that’s going on, whereas last year, he was anticipating where a player would be. The only wide receiver that he’s shown chemistry with is Rishard Matthews, and that’s largely on go-routes, which don’t require much anticipation. The Rams haven’t been a complete shutdown defense this year, but if you remove Carson Wentz‘s four-touchdown game, they’ve allowed just nine passing touchdowns in their last nine games. Mariota has played better at home this year, throwing 236.5 yards per game, and seven touchdowns to just three interceptions. You have to limit expectations knowing how bad he’s played, making him a middling high-floor QB2.
RBs
Todd Gurley: What a performance last week by Gurley, as he singlehandedly won fantasy matchups with his 180-yard, four-touchdown performance. He’s now finished as a top-12 running back 11 times, which is the most in the league. The Titans are one of the worst matchups he’s had all year, though. They have allowed just 3.30 yards per carry with just four rushing touchdowns, but there is light in Gurley’s tunnel. He’s now caught at least five passes in five of his last six games, which is where the damage can be done against the Titans. They’ve allowed 744 yards through the air to running backs, which is the second-highest mark in the league. When you’re seeing 20-plus touches every game, you’re in lineups; just don’t expect Gurley to post another 100 yards on the ground this week. He’s a must-play RB1, but you already knew that.
Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry: This is one where I’m going to have to bite the bullet, as Henry didn’t get the role I expected him to against the 49ers last week. Instead, the Titans decided to ride their 29-year-old running back, giving him 19 touches, which was more than double Henry’s touch count. They appear content with mediocrity, so why should we assume it changes now? The Rams have been a matchup to target most of the year, though volume has been hard to come by, as three of their last four opponents ran the ball 20 or fewer times, so it’s not shocking to see they’re in the top-12 for fewest rushing attempts allowed. They have allowed a massive 4.61 yards per attempt on the year (third-most) with 11 touchdowns (seventh-most), so the hope is there for both Titans running backs. They are better contrarian DFS plays than anything, though you can plug Murray in as a low-end RB2 in season-long leagues. If the game-script goes as the oddsmakers are planning, the Titans will be playing from behind, which is when Murray is in full control of the backfield, as he’s a better pass-blocker and has caught 36 passes on the season, compared to just nine receptions for Henry. Sadly, you can’t confidently use Henry this week, as he’s just a desperation flex-option.
WRs
Robert Woods: I’ve always faded wide receivers coming back from multi-week injuries, and it’s panned out more often than not. It appeared to be the case with Woods last week, too, that was until he caught a touchdown late in the game. Whatever the case, he saw a team-high seven targets, so he walked right back into his lead role, while Watkins went back to being a role-player. The Titans aren’t going to shadow either of them, so Woods will see a mixture of Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims, a combination that has allowed 990 yards and seven touchdowns in their coverage this year, which is one of the highest totals among any duo. There’s no reason to avoid Woods in this matchup, so play him as a rock-solid WR3.
Cooper Kupp: Similar to Watkins, Kupp went back to his old role with Woods back in the spotlight, though it’s hard to say that it’ll always be like this, as Goff threw the ball just 21 times in the game. Still, Kupp seeing just three targets is worrisome as we head into the fantasy playoffs. He’s also got what seems to be the toughest matchup of the Rams wide receivers, as he’ll go against Logan Ryan in the slot. It’s not that Ryan isn’t beatable (he is), but he’s the most experienced player in that secondary. This is not saying to avoid Kupp all together, but it shouldn’t surprise you if the Rams attack the Titans elsewhere. Consider Kupp just a WR4, but a relatively high-floor one.
Sammy Watkins: We’ve seen the talent, but if he’s not getting the targets, it won’t matter. He’s now seen more than five targets just three times the entire season, and two of them were with Woods out of the lineup. Fortunately, you don’t need many targets to succeed against the Titans, who are allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per target to wide receivers in PPR formats. Watkins will see the most of LeShaun Sims, who is the slower of the two perimeter cornerbacks, so consider him a high-risk/high-upside WR4 this week.
Rishard Matthews: Most see the big plays that Matthews and Mariota can connect on, but most don’t realize that Mariota has been picked off five times while targeting Matthews, which is more than they’ve connected for touchdowns (4). Still, he’s the No. 1 target among wide receivers, seeing at least five targets in all but one game this year. The Rams have been one of the better secondaries against receivers, allowing just two top-12 wide receivers on the season, and just 13 top-36 options, which is less than one per game, one of the lowest marks in the league. Matthews would be the one you’d bet on doing that in this game, though it’s far from a guarantee. He’s a high-end WR4 for championship week.
TEs
Gerald Everett/Tyler Higbee: You don’t want to play either of the Rams tight ends, who have combined for just 69 targets on the season. There’s been just three occasions in which either of them saw more than four targets, and two of those occasions came back in the first six weeks. Everett is the more explosive one, but hasn’t seen more than four targets all season, making him unplayable. It stinks, too, because the Titans have become one of the worst defenses against the position. If you want to play one in a DFS tournament, go with Everett, who leads them with eight redzone targets.
Delanie Walker: We talked about the fact that Walker had a tough matchup last week, so seeing him walk away with 37 yards and a touchdown should make you happy. He’s now scored at least 9.2 PPR points in nine straight games, which is unheard of for a tight end. The Rams have been what I’d consider to be a below-average team against the tight end position, allowing 11 tight ends to finish with at least 40 yards and/or a touchdown. Of the five tight ends who have seen at least six targets against them, all totaled at least 10.8 PPR points, making Walker a must-play TE1 and one who offers a high floor in DFS.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Total: 47.0
Line: NE by 12.5
QBs
Tyrod Taylor: What a performance by Taylor against the Dolphins last week, as we were led to believe he wouldn’t be as mobile as he was, rushing for 42 yards and a touchdown. He’s about to head into free agency, and is likely looking to go out with a bang, though the Patriots stand in the way. They’re the team he struggled against just three weeks ago before getting hurt. He left that game after completing just 9-of-18 passes for 65 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. Keep in mind that game was at home, while this game will be in Foxborough. The Patriots were carved up by Jay Cutler in Week 14, but have still held five of the last seven quarterbacks to play them to finish as the QB20 or worse. The silver lining for Taylor is that they’ve allowed four quarterbacks (Taylor included) to rush for at least 32 yards against them. That’s where he’s going to get some of his points, but he’s just a mediocre QB2 in this game.
Tom Brady: It hasn’t been a great three weeks to own Mr. Brady, as he’s averaged 263.0 yards, 0.7 touchdowns, and 1.3 interceptions in that time, though each of those games were on the road. He’ll return home this week to the field where he’s averaged 293.5 yards, 2.3 touchdowns, and 0.1 interceptions per game. The Bills have been a really tough cookie to crack for opposing quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed just two quarterbacks to throw more than one touchdown against them. Those quarterbacks were Jameis Winston and Philip Rivers, who also happen to be the only quarterbacks who’ve finished in the top-12 against them. It has a lot to do with all of the rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed (14 in the last seven games), so I’m not willing to say that Brady is going to bust. He’s a QB1 and there’s only a couple quarterbacks I’d rather have on my roster than him this week.
RBs
LeSean McCoy: It’s an ongoing thing with McCoy – if he’s a home favorite, put him in every lineup. This week isn’t one of those weeks. While you’re going to start him in season-long leagues, this is likely to be somewhat of a letdown from McCoy. They’re on the road and are nearly a two-touchdown underdog, which happens to be the recipe for disaster. He was able to total 93 yards on 15 carries the last time they played, so all hope isn’t gone, and if the Patriots do struggle against one thing, it’s the run. They’re allowing a league-high 4.92 yards per carry, but have allowed just five touchdowns. The issue with relying on massive production out of him is that opponents are averaging just 20.6 carries per game against them, the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Again, McCoy is involved in the passing game and is a must-play in season-long leagues, but this is more for the DFS crowd, as McCoy likely isn’t worth the cost of admission.
Dion Lewis, Mike Gillislee, and James White: It’s odd how everything works out, though it’s not great for fantasy players. Rex Burkhead was a plug-and-play high-end RB2 the last few weeks, but it seems like he’s going to miss some time with his knee injury, leaving Mike Gillislee as someone who’ll likely be active for the first time since Week 8. It’s against his former team, too, though it looks a lot different than the one he left. Lewis is the only one you can play confidently in this matchup, as he’s done nothing to lose his role. The only concern is that Gillislee gets the goal-line carries with Burkhead out. You should still plug in Lewis as a high-end RB2 against the Bills, a team that he tagged for 92 yards on 15 carries in their first meeting, though Burkhead got the glory with two touchdowns. It’s very possible that Lewis takes on both roles and finishes as a top-10 play this week. The Bills have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns in their last seven games, a number that just one other team has allowed… on the entire year. Gillislee is just a boom-or-bust RB4, but one who does come with upside if he gets those goal-line carries. You also need to make sure he’s active. White is the one who lost a large part of his role with Burkhead’s increased role, so he should return to being a potential flex-option who should see at least five targets in the passing game.
WRs
Zay Jones: He’s now failed to catch a pass in each of the last two games, but I need to put someone from the Bills wide receivers in The Primer, right? In the last matchup with the Patriots, he saw a team-high seven targets, but finished with just two catches for 22 yards. With Stephon Gilmore and Malcolm Butler in coverage, Jones shouldn’t be played in the championship week. Let’s be real, you wouldn’t be in the championship if he was on your roster.
Brandin Cooks: He was fortunate enough to find the end zone last week, saving him from his third sub-par performance in a row. When Cooks went to the Patriots, we knew that his target total wouldn’t be much more than he was getting in New Orleans, but he’s now on pace to see 112 for the season, so it’s worse than the 117 and 129 he saw with the Saints the two previous years. It’s hard to think that he’s happy with that, as that’s reportedly the reason he wanted out of New Orleans. He’s seen more than seven targets on just five occasions, and two of them came while Hogan was out of the lineup. That’s an issue against the Bills, who have allowed the second-fewest points per target to opposing wide receivers this year. It’s also likely the reason we saw Cooks struggle in Week 13 against them, finishing with just two catches for 17 yards. He’s always one big play away, but it appears that his ceiling was higher with the Saints. Consider him a middling WR2 against the Bills, who have allowed just eight top-24 performances all year.
Chris Hogan: It was a surprise to see Hogan inactive last week, especially when he played a majority of snaps in Week 14 against the Dolphins. Hogan would probably like to be on the field against his former team, though as we talked about in Cooks’ write-up that it’s not a great matchup for wide receivers. If we pretend that he’ll be active for this game, he’d see a majority of the rookie Tre’Davious White, who has played extremely well this year, allowing just a 48.6 percent catch rate. He has been beat deep a few times, so that’s always possible with Hogan, but he comes with plenty of risk, so consider him as a high-risk WR4 in this game.
Danny Amendola: His outlook changed with and without Hogan/Burkhead, so we need to remain fluid with our opinion of Amendola. He’s oddly seen at least four targets in every game, including 9- and 10-target games in the five weeks. His matchup with Leonard Johnson is likely the best of the bunch, as he’s quite slow to play the slot, which is why he’s allowed a 71 percent catch rate in coverage. If both Hogan and Burkhead are out, Amendola is in the high-end WR4 conversation. If either of them play, Amendola is just a relatively safe WR5.
TEs
Charles Clay: I’m not going to lie – I was a tad worried about recommending Clay last week, so I’m really happy it worked out for you guys, and for my DFS cash-game lineup. The five catches for 68 yards were his highest totals since back in Week 4, prior to his knee surgery. With Jordan Matthews shelved and Kelvin Benjamin playing on one leg, Clay is going to see a bump in volume. He saw a season-high nine targets last week, which is a number he should be able to approach in Week 16, as the Patriots opponents average 36.9 pass attempts per game (third-most in the NFL), which is much higher than the Bills average of 29.4 pass attempts (lowest in NFL). The Patriots really struggled against tight ends earlier in the year, but have now held seven of the last eight tight ends they’ve played to 36 yards or less, including Clay who finished with just three catches for 20 yards, though it doesn’t help that Taylor was knocked out of that game. Consider him a high-end TE2 who should see a favorable game-script as the No. 1 option in the passing game.
Rob Gronkowski: What else can we say about him? He just went against the league’s best defense against tight ends and finished with nine catches for 168 yards. He’s not your ordinary tight end, so just because a team has done well against tight ends, it doesn’t mean they’ll do well against Gronk. He’s a different breed. He’s also likely to see more opportunities on the goal-line this week if Burkhead misses the game, which seems very likely. The Bills allowed him to stack up nine catches for 147 yards in their first meeting, and that was with Brady struggling during that game. He’s the TE1 and you’re playing him anywhere you possibly can.
